I remember just couple of days ago the current interim prime minister of Ukraine in a news conference said: "Ukraine would not join NATO". Today, I heard a news that Ukraine has decided to perform a military exercise with NATO. This event would occur, while Russia was beginning to pull back its military forces from Ukrainian borderline last night. It seems the West is trying to provoke Russia and president Putin. Although, the current Russian government is not like the North Korean, but in response to this act, Russia might fully militarize not only the Crimean peninsula, but also the whole Black Sea as much as it can.
Note: It would be wise that the policy makers in the NATO pay attention to a simple fact, which I have repeatedly mentioned it in my previous notes. The fact is that Russia does not need to invade Ukraine by its military forces. If Russia wants to destabilize Ukraine for its own favor and purpose, Kremlin can easily use ten millions ethnic Russians, who live in Ukraine. If the West would push further, Russia would response harder. Russia can easily provoke and mobilize all the Russian citizens not only in Ukraine but also those ethnic Russians, who live in Moldova and Georgia to revolt against their central governments. In this respect, what would the NATO forces do? How would the NATO forces be able to control the civilian uprisings in all these countries?
I'm wondering do the decision makers in the NATO think about such consequences? I don't think so.
In sum, following this military exercise, the West should be prepared for two main consequences: 1- revolting the ethnic Russian citizens in different Eastern European countries and 2- strong Russian militarization policy in the Crimean peninsula and the Black Sea. Moreover, the Western and NATO policy makers should pay attention to the fact that Putin is not a pushover person. Putin retaliates harder.
M. Sirani 01.04.2014
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