Monday, October 5, 2015

Some Huge Problems That Zbigniew Brzezinski Didn't Predict.

Briefly: The negative consequences of Fundamentalism Realism.

Zbigniew Brzezinski is one of those scholars, who couldn't predict the negative consequences of nuclear deal with Iran and cooperation with Iran amid war on ISIS.

In the last couple of months, in many occasions, Brzezinski stated that the U.S. should focus on its interests and in the war against ISIS, the U.S. should ally with Iran.

What did Zbigniew Brzezinski miss?

1- The nuclear deal would empower & embolden Iran in different terms; as such the expansionist behavior and activities of  Iran in the Middle East and Africa will increase.

2- When it comes to the Middle East and Africa, Iran and the USA have completely different & contradictory Geo-strategical and economic interests: a type of fundamentally Zero-Sum game.

3- Russia is one of the closest allies of Iran. Russia and the USA also have different Geo-Strategical and economic interests particularly, when it comes to the two countries of Ukraine and Syria.

Based on what Brzezinski proposed, thus, the USA should cooperate with Iran and Russia and join these two states in the war against ISIS now. In this respect, the U.S. should totally ignore the interests of itself and its close allies in the Middle East including its NATO partner Turkey!!!!Does such a move compatible with US Geo-Strategical and economic interests in the Middle East in short and long terms?

This is just a tiny contradiction within Fundamentalism Realism (Machiavellian & Morgentahuian approach) of Zbigniew Brzezinski, which drags the USA into nowhere land and more confusional foreign policy around the world including in the volatile region of the Middle East.

Note: The current US administration should avoid purple screaming with regards to Russia's recent intervention in Syria. The administration is harvesting a huge confusion in Syria now, what it has cultivated before.
  The strategy (if any exists) and tactics of the Western countries in the Middle East is similar to an old Iranian proverb, which says: You cannot seat on two chairs simultaneously for a long period of time; finally, you will fall and lose both chairs.  The problem of Brzezinski is the notion that he and those, who think like him, want to have a close and constructive relationship with Arab Leagues and Iran simultaneously and at the same time want to Iran agrees with removal of Bashar Assad & at the same support Arab League in the war in Yemen against Houthis and ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, endless other contradictions in the Middle East. It doesn't work anymore this type of contradictory policy. The world has changed and been changing. You should make up your mind in this battle and clearly say who is your close ally, who is your enemy. You cannot seat in both chairs and have a free ride, due to the fact that in addition to the USA, there are other super & regional powers around the world. Too much Machiavellian policy would end up to losing the orbits. (For your own sake look at Egypt as an example).  I can write a long essay in this matter; but honestly, i'm sicking tired of pro bono work and what you are reading in this simple weblog is just a type of hobby in my breaks. 

New Development:

In an article published today Brzezinski says: The US should retaliate and threatens Russia to stop,,,, Russian naval base in Syria is vulnerable and far from homeland,,,,, China stays in sideline,,,,,,. What does that mean? Direct military confrontation with Russia in Syria and at the same time building constructive relationship with Iran and at the same time trying to remove Assad from power, and the same time helping the Arab league in the war in Yemen against Houthis group backed by Iran, and endless further contradictions,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 

Maybe Mr. Brzezinski is not aware that 1- Russia's recent military deployment to Syria is far beyond just some airstrikes against ISIS, 2- Russia has declared that it is ready to deploy 150,000 ground force to Syria in a short period of time if is necessary, 3- Couple of days ago, Iran has openly and publicly deployed some ground forces to Syria (Thanks to shaky nuclear deal and lifting the sanctions), 4- Some Iranian military generals have yesterday arrived in Syria, 5- China's military advisers have couple of days ago arrived in Syria, 6- Haidar Al-Abadi has supported Russia's military intervention in Syria and has also said that he needs Russia's support in Iraq as well, 7- there is high probability that a huge ground force operation will be conducted in Syria and possibly in Iraq in the next step in the next coming days and weeks and many other issues, which all of them indicate a fact that Russia, China, Iran, Iraq, Syria have decided to put en end to the conflicts in both Iraq and Syria as soon as possible. (You had 4/5 years time and did nothing, nothing, nothing at all except flirting with the Iranian Regime in the public and making love with Iran in the secret and behind the close doors).  The game in Syria and Iraq is nearly over in the favor of Iran and Russia, unless a miracle happens.    

Traditional schools in IR are Anti-Update. Some scholars are physically living in 2015, but when it comes to mentality, they are living in some decades ago.

M. Sirani                05.10.2015