Sunday, October 4, 2015

Move Away From Syria (Possibly Iraq in the Next Step as Well); There Might Be Launched A Broad Ground Offensive Operation By Russian And Iranian Forces in the Near Future.

Briefly: (It seems Russia has announced that it is ready to deploy up to 150,000 ground forces into Syria in the near future). 

Everybody, who has a little bit knowledge in Peace & Conflict, War, International Relations, Political Science, should understand that a paramilitary group like ISIS and alike cannot be defeated by only airstrikes. Maybe the Western countries (US-led coalition) didn't pay attention to this basic understanding in the past two years war against ISIS, but the Russian and Iranian Strategists and tacticians have a proper knowledge in this matter and do not repeat the same mistake of the US-led coalition in this matter. In addition, both Russia and Iran have enough experience in warfare against paramilitary group like ISIS. In this respect, the two examples of Chechen War and the way that Iranian regime has been able to defeat the armed Iranian dissidents in the past 36 years could be mentioned.

What might happen in Syria and possibly in Iraq in the next step?

Based on brief details noted above and due to the fact that Iran has recently deployed some of its ground forces into Syria, there is high probability that in the next couple of weeks (following the broad Russia's airstrikes) we will observe a broad ground offensive military operation against ISIS, Al-Nusra Front, Syrian Rebels and any other group that fight against Assad's Regime. This broad offensive operation will be launched by the joint ground forces of Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, other Shiite groups and if necessary Russia's ground military forces. In case of such a scenario, this military operation will undoubtedly be continued against ISIS positions and alike in Iraq as well.
In short, Russia and Iran have decided to clean up the mess in both Syria and Iraq by all means.
Needless to explore the consequences of such a broad offensive operation not only within Syria and Iraq, but also in the neighboring countries, the Middle East and among US-led coalition.

Note: I might say, the war in Syria and Iraq has been nearly hijacked by Russia and Iran. Russia's military intervention will fundamentally change the course of war in Syria and possibly in Iraq as well in different terms. This event will enforce many unpredictable changes in the Middle East in various forms. As an example, Egypt has supported Russia's intervention in Syria. Thus, avoid purple screaming; you had 4/5 years time and did nothing, nothing at all. Just be prepared for further complications in the region.

M. Sirani                          04.10.2015