Thursday, September 19, 2013

A Hidden Fact About Iran's Current President Hassan Rouhani and Iran's New tactics.

Once again, the Iranian regime is trying to deceive the world with different tactics. One of these tactics is the notion that the Foreign Ministry has become the responsible entity for nuclear negotiations within 5+1 group. This move along with some other tactics such as releasing some political prisoners, flexibility in negotiation and wishing Jews a blessed New Year have created an unrealistic image that Rouhani is going to change the course of the Islamic regime in different aspects. In response to these optimistic views, some important issues should be mentioned.

1- During Ahmadinejad's presidency, Supreme National Security Council was Iran's responsible entity with regard to the nuclear negotiations within 5+1 group. In those years, Hassan Rouhani was the Supreme Leader's special representative within Supreme National Security Council. In other words, what Iran proposed during the past couple of years within 5+1 group, was the exact decisions of Rouhani and his master the Supreme Leader Khamenei and nothing else. The tricky point is here. Now, Rouhani has become the president and the Foreign Ministry has become the responsible entity for the nuclear negotiations. To put it simply, Rouhani has removed the responsibility of this important issue from Supreme National Security Council (Where he worked before) and has given that to the Foreign Ministry (Where he has fully control now). Moreover, we should bear in mind that both Rouhani and Zarif have enough academic background in the International Law & policy and International Relations studies. From this, we can deduce that during Ahmadinejad's presidency, Rouhani & Zarif & Velayati were the main advisors of the Supreme leader and designed Iran's foreign policy and nuclear negotiation. Presently, The same people i.e. Khamenei and his advisors Rouhani & Zarif & Velayati are responsible for those issues. The only thing that has changed is that both Rouhani and Zarif have taken new official positions in the Islamic Regime. That's why Rouhani claims that he has the full authority about the nuclear negotiation; because he was and is the Supreme Leader's representative; because he was and is one of the main decision makers with regard to Iran's nuclear activity.

This simple explanation should trigger a question in the curious mind as follows. Would this artificial change be identified as a positive and fundamental change in Iran's foreign policy?
Honestly, I don't understand why some people are so optimist about Rouhani's statement in this matter. It seems these people have no idea about the structure of power within the Islamic Regime.

2- Releasing the so-called political prisoners: All the prisoners, which have been released yesterday are the reformists and proponents of Mir Hussein Mousavi, Iran's former Prime Minister. In other words, a powerful faction within the Islamic Regime, which presently has the power, has released some members of other factions of the Islamic Regime from prison. Those real political prisoners, who want to overthrow the Islamic Regime are still in the prison and not a single one of them has been released.

3- Peaceful Nuclear Activity: Rouhani has claimed that Iran's nuclear activity has peaceful nature. This simple sentence has shocked some shallow minded people around the world and has been recognized as a positive change in Iran's foreign policy. The questions is: what did Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, Jalili and some other Iranian officials repeatedly tell us during the past couple of years that this statement of Rouhani has been identified as a sign for a positive change?

All noted above were just some examples, how Iran tries to deceive the world by some artificial moves. What is the plan of Iran at this critical historical moment?

This is my prediction:
At the present time, Iran is under enormous pressure with regard to two important issues. The first important issue is the current conflict in Syria particularly the recent chemical attack and its possible consequences. The second issue is the nuclear negotiation with the West. Both these issues are important for Iran and the Islamic Regime would do its best to protect and preserve its position in both matters. Iran would neither lose Syria nor its nuclear activity. In other words, Iran cannot withdraw its support from Syria and at the same time, cannot shut down all its nuclear activity. But, there is a middle way, which Iran can preserve both issues. In order to do that, the policy-makers in Iran have come up with a new tactic. The tactic is that Iran would try to divert the mind of the West and the international community from Syria at this critical moment into another important issue. This important issue would be Iran's nuclear activity. In this respect, Iran might agree to stop its 20% uranium enrichment process or moreover, Iran might agree to decrease its nuclear activity in some of its nuclear plants. Should this happen, Iran does not lose anything at all and it can continue with its nuclear activity secretly, for example in a hidden plant, the same as Iran has done it up until this moment. This move, in return, would be beneficial for Iran, because the West would remove some of the sanctions. This nuclear negotiation is time consuming; it is a diplomatic marathon. However, this plan would offer Bashar Asad, Iran and Russia to reorganize themselves better with regard to the current tension in Syria. This event, consequently, might give an opportunity to Iran and Russia to pass this critical stage in Syria without any serious struggle with the West. Iran's new superficial moves in the domestic and international arena should be understood in this respect and nothing else. 

M. Sirani                               19.09.2013