Monday, September 9, 2013

Before Any Military Strike, We Should Think About The Existance of Massive Chemical Weapons in Syria.

Its seems some people have not paying attention to the essence of my previous short note about the type of respond to the current chemical attack in Syria. Let me make some points perfectly clear:
My previous short note is just a small part of my plan for the Syrian civil war and still I have not revealed what would be the end point of my plan. Moreover, I don't have any sympathy at all neither for the Islamic Regime nor for Asad's Regime and I strongly believe that both of these totalitarian regimes should be overthrown without any doubt. Furthermore, I believe not only those, who were behind this chemical attack, but also those who were responsible for the killing of more than 100,000 innocent Syrian people should face a serious, fair and lawful justice, no matter who they are or what type of official positions they have.

But there is one issue, which deeply concerns me and that is the existence of massive chemical weapons in current chaotic Syria. This is an important issue and it seems that the current US administration does not pay enough attention to it. As it openly appears, the US and its allies have decided to launch a small and short military strike on Syria. Should this happen, I'm pretty sure that the US and its allies would do their best to paralyze the Syrian military forces from different angles during this short military strike. At the same time, we should bear in mind that the US and its allies would not be able to damage or destroy the massive chemical weapons existed in Syria during this military strike. In other words, these chemical weapons would remain in Syria at a critical and chaotic period of time; when Asad's regime is going to collapse; when the Syrian security forces have lost most of their authority and power in the country; when there is a serious vacuum of power in Syria; when there are some terrorist groups in Syria, which do their best to get access to every opportunity including access to these chemical weapons.

Bearing in mind these possible issues and events, the US administration should focus on some important questions as follows.
1- In such circumstances, who or which authority would be able to protect and control these chemical weapons from the hands of different terrorist groups in Syria?

2- What would the US and its allies do, if (I emphasize IF), Asad's regime or some faction within the Syrian military forces would intentionally allow some of these terrorist groups get access to these chemical weapons?

These are the serious issues that the US administration should think about them. We should also bear in mind that we are not talking about the possible occurrence of an event within the EU or the US itself; we are talking about the possible occurrence of a serious threat in a chaotic country like Syria, in a vulnerable region like the Middle East, which is struggling with different terrorist groups from every corner. Thus, we should be logical and reasonable and think about the consequences of our action. We should not repeat the same mistake that we did in Afghanistan, where we armed some Mujahidin with the Stinger missiles to use them against the Soviet troops, but later these weapons were handed to Al-Qaida and Taliban and were used against us.

To put its simply, the wrong tactic and strategy used during the military strike on Afghanistan have spread the wave of terrorism in some areas in the Middle East.  But presently, an early military strike on Syria would spread the chemical weapons in the hand of some terrorist groups in the Middle East.

Therefore, I believe the US and its allies should find a fundamental solution for the massive chemical weapons existed in Syria, before taking any military action on this country. Otherwise, we will face a serious threat somewhere in the future in the vulnerable and chaotic region of the Middle East. In this respect, the US closest ally in the Middle East, i.e. Israel would be the first victim. In sum, we should be smart and do not throw ourselves in another unnecessary and unknown black hole in the international system by performing a wrong move. 

M. Sirani                            09.09.2013