Tuesday, September 17, 2013

The Next Moves of Russia and Iran With Regard to the Current Tension in Syria. (A Warning)

Iran and Russia are trying to use the current chemical event in Syria as a tool and change the course of Syrian conflict in their favors. So far, Putin's plan has prevented the US and France to launch a military strike on Syria. What would be the next move of Russia and Iran? As it appears, Russia and Iran are planning to do some deal with the West. This deal might apparently be beneficial for the West, but in reality it pursues the main goal of Iran and Russia in the final stage. In other words, this deal is a type of trap for the West and nothing more. This is the story.

Sergey Lavrov has begun with a rumor that Iran might be agree to stop its 20% uranium enrichment activity. Regarding this issue, some officials in Iran have also claimed that Iran is ready to find a quick diplomatic solution for its nuclear activity within 5+1 group. In addition, both Iranian and Russian officials have recently claimed that Bashar Asad is not an important issue for them. From these two events, we can predict the next moves of Russia and Iran.

In the first step, somewhere in the near future, Iran might agree to stop its 20% uranium enrichment activity temporarily (A type of superficial incentive). This event would create an image in the West, that things are getting well in Iran and the West might reach a diplomatic solution with Iran in this matter somewhere in the future. Should this happen, the West would remove some of the sanctions on Iran. Moreover, the West might remove the military option against Syria from its agenda. Up until this stage, the whole event would be beneficial for Iran in different terms.

In the next step, Iran and Russia might agree to remove Bashar Asad from the power. This event might happen in the next conference in Geneva or after the conference. The West would welcome this proposal and identifies it as a positive progress. However, removing Bashar Asad from the power is just a superficial tactic; because both Russia and Iran would not change anything at all with regard to the current political system in Syria. In other words, Russia and Iran would not allow anyone to conquer their economic, geopolitical and strategic opportunities in Syria. However, by this move, Iran and Russia would create huge fragmentation within the West block and within the Syrian opposition groups.

In sum, following and implementing these events would offer Iran and Russia enough time and opportunity in order to reorganize themselves and would be ready for further developments, whether in Syria or whether in 5+1 group with regard to Iran's nuclear activity. To put it simply, if the UN and the West don't pay attention to these types of tactics, Russia and Iran would be the final winners of the game not only in Syria, but also in the nuclear negotiation within 5+1 group.

M. Sirani                                 17.09.2013