Friday, September 6, 2013

A Plan That Might Save The World From An Additional Disaster.

How should we deal with the recent chemical attack in Syria?

The G20 summit in Russia ended without any agreement among the world leaders with regard to the Syrian conflict. Part of the disagreement at this stage derives from different opinions between the US and Russia over the recent chemical attack in Syria and how the international community should deal with this horrific and inhuman act. This event, however, has fragmented the international community into three different groups as follows.

1-     A group of countries such as the US, France, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which claims that the international community should launch a military strike on Syria because of this chemical attack. Among this group, the two countries of the US and France have decided to unilaterally launch a military strike on Syria somewhere in the near future.

2-     A group of countries such as Russia, China, India, Argentina and South Africa, which are against any unilateral military action against Syria. Among this group, Russia has openly announced that it will fully assist Syria in case of any military strike without U.N. Security Council backing.

3-     A group of neutral countries such as some members of the EU, the Arab League which claim that any decision in this matter should be made within the United Nation Security Council.

These differences have dragged the international community into another deadlock. This issue raises some questions as follows. What should we do? How would we be able to break the current deadlock and at the same time respond the alleged chemical attack in an appropriate manner based on the current international laws, rules and norms? How would we be able to ease the tension in Syria? And finally, is there any other plan, which would be able to address all the questions mentioned above in a proper way? Regarding the current deadlock in the Syrian crisis, I have developed a plan, which might address all the issues mentioned above. Before I proceed further, however, I have to admit that this is the first draft; as such, it might need more improvement and modification.

- The First Draft of the Plan:  

The plan includes different steps. All these steps should be performed and implemented parallel to each other by a joint committee consists of some representatives from the members of the United Nation Security Council, the Syrian government, the United Nation and possibly a representative from a neutral country like Norway for example; otherwise, we would end up in another dead-end alley in this crisis.  

1- First step: The joint committee would establish a temporary ceasefire between Asad’s regime and the opposition in Syria up until the end of this plan. The establishment a ceasefire is not an easy task, but it is not impossible (I fully aware that the terrorist groups are exception in this matter and they don’t follow this process). By this move, we can decrease the collateral damage and the new waves of refugees and internally displaced people.  

2- The second step: The US and France would agree to postpone their unilaterally military strike on Syria up until the end of this plan.

3- The third step: The Syrian government, in return, would agree to fully cooperate by all means with the joint committee from the beginning up until the last step of this plan without any delay, sabotage or nonchalant attitude.

4- The fourth step: Both the Syrian government and the opposition blame each other for the recent chemical attack. In this respect, the joint committee would deploy some experts to visit the chemical attack sites, in order to identify the perpetrators of the chemical attack.

5- The fifth step: The Syrian government would agree to extradite the perpetrators (no matter who they are) to the joint committee, if the committee found out that Asad’s regime has been behind this horrific act. The perpetrators of this horrible act should face a fair and lawful justice (I fully aware that Syria has not accepted the compulsory jurisdiction of ICC or ICJ). 

6- The sixth step: The existence of massive chemical weapons in Syria is a serious threat for the Syrian people and the international community, particularly at this critical moment; when the country is experiencing a devastating civil war; when different terrorist groups have involved in this civil war. Moreover, the Syrian authority should understand a simple fact that it cannot use any of these chemical weapons against its opponents or enemies under any circumstances. Any attempt at this direction is equivalent with massive and broad military intervention  on Syria and consequently the collapse of Asad's regime in less than a month. In such a event, the two super powers of Russia and China would not damage their reputation in the international arena by helping Asad's regime. Thus, it would be wise to get ride of these weapons of mass destruction. At this step, the Syrian authority would agree to destroy all its chemical weapons under the observation of some representatives from the joint committee (I fully aware that Syria is not a member of CWC). 

7- The seventh step: The two countries of Russia and China would agree to neutrally cooperate with the joint committee from the beginning up until the last step of this plan. Russia and China, moreover, would agree to don’t paralyze the Security Council by their vetoes, if Asad’s regime doesn’t fulfill its responsibilities based on all policies mentioned above. To put its simply, by this move, the Security Council would be free to take any reasonable and necessary action against the Syrian regime, based on the international law in case that Syria doesn't cooperate (Effect on Public Opinion).  

By implementing these steps, we would be able to save the world from another additional catastrophic event. As explored above, through this plan we would be able to:

1-     Ease the tension to some extent at the local, regional and international level.

2-     Perform the justice with regard to the perpetrators of this inhuman and barbaric act.

3-     Minimize the serious threat of the massive chemical weapons accumulated in Syria.

4-     Break the current deadlock in the international system.

5-     Increase the level of cooperation between the states in the international arena.

6-     Empower the authority of the United Nation and its powerful entity i.e. the Security Council.

7-     Teach a good and clear lesson to possible violators of the international law and rules in an appropriate and lawful manner.

8-     Decrease the collateral damage and the new waves of refugees and internally displaced people in Syria.

9-     Facilitate a basic foundation for a diplomatic solution for the Syrian crisis.

This was brief explanation about this part of my plan for the Syrian civil war. Unfortunately, I cannot disclose the whole plan in this weblog; but I’m ready to present it to an official and reliable type of authority in order to save the lives of millions Syrian people. In the final part, we should bear in mind that any military intervention at this stage not only does not solve the conflict; instead, it would intensify the scope and dimension of this conflict into other areas in the Middle East. Thus, let us be reasonable; let us do not make another hasty decision; let us be smart, brave and use this disastrous event and turn it into a golden historical event, which is beneficial for all of us in the long term. In sum, I believe that following this plan and one month delay for a military strike on Syria do not damage the credibility of any state or anyone. We should bear in mind that: there is always room for a military intervention at any moment, but there is not always a possibility for a diplomatic solution at any moment.

M. Sirani                                    07.09.2013