Thursday, January 29, 2015

Extending Another Six Months Sanctions on Russia? Expect the Unexpected.

As it appears some of the current politicians within the EU do not have a clear picture about different ongoing events in the international arena and more importantly unexpected events in the near future. If they had, the EU would have tried to find a diplomatic solution for current tension in Ukraine; instead of extending another six months sanctions on Russia.

The current decision makers in the EU should be aware of some unexpected events in the near future and do not try to create unnecessary hassle for themselves. Among these unexpected events, the following could be mentioned.

1- Greece financial problem including some possible consequences such as Greece's default, exiting from the EU, economic crisis, etc.

2- The useless nuclear negotiation with Iran along with increasing scale of tension in different parts of the Middle East.

3- Political turmoil in some EU countries following Greece's default and exiting from the EU. In this respect, CDU party in Germany is the most vulnerable party within the EU.

4- The rise of overall Islamic terror cells in the all EU countries.

My suggestion: ease the useless tension in some other parts, for example in Ukraine and focus on the important issues mentioned above. Otherwise, you will lose more than you think.

Note: you don't win the war in Ukraine. Russia has the upper hand from different angles whether within Ukraine, the Balkan states and other parts of the Middle East through Iran. Thus, do not ruin Ukraine more than this and try to find a diplomatic solution for this conflict. In short, do not bark on the wrong trees; save all your resources for the important issues.

M. Sirani                         29.01.2015