Briefly:
No matter what would be the outcome of upcoming presidential election in the U.S.; no matter Clinton would be the next U.S. president or not, one thing is Chrystal Clear and that is:
Due to continuous Emails and Clinton Foundation scandals, Hilary Clinton is like a sinking ship. She will drag down with herself her wealthy & powerful supporters at national, regional and global levels. As long as Clinton continues with the presidential race, many curious people (Ally & Enemy) around the world would focus on Clinton. As a result, more names and contacts would be released in the public domain. In other words, Clinton scandals would be shared with other wealthy, powerful & famous people around the world. Such an event would ruin the reputation of many people around the world, in addition to Clintons.
Based on brief noted above, it would be wise that both Bill & Hillary Clinton retire themselves from all political activities and enjoy the rest of their lives with couple of hundreds millions dollars, which have been donated to their so-called "Foundation". Otherwise, the international community would face a big problem; due to the fact that Clinton scandals are much worse than Watergate Scandal.
M. Sirani 30.08.2016
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Saturday, August 20, 2016
Warning: Establishing a No-Fly-Zone in North Syria Means A Dangerous Total War Between Various Actors (Desperate & Chaotic Obama Administration).
Briefly:
The ridiculous part of the story is here. In the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, while Russia and China were not directly involved in this conflict as they are today; while Iran was under the severe sanctions imposed by the International Community, Obama admin did nothing seriously with regards to this conflict. As it appears now, it seems the Obama administration is trying intensify the tension in Syria and consequently facilitate a ground base to establish a no-fly-zone in North Syria somewhere in the near future. Such a move, (in addition to its cost and technical possibility) in case of implementation, will be compatible with H. Clinton's plan for Syria and accordingly might be useful in her presidential race against D. Trump, who is advocating another policy in this matter.
This is a very dangerous policy; if my assumption and prediction in this regard are correct. Establishing a No-Fly-Zone in North Syria at this stage means the beginning of an endless total war; a total war, which undoubtedly will spread to other areas in the region by all means. Such a horrific event and its devastating consequences will not be a pleasant event for nobody. (By nobody, i mean all the internal, external actors and the poor Syrian people).
Note: I hope those genius in Washington and other capitals involved in this conflict do not start a stupid move like this in Syria at this stage.
M. Sirani 20.08.2016
The ridiculous part of the story is here. In the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, while Russia and China were not directly involved in this conflict as they are today; while Iran was under the severe sanctions imposed by the International Community, Obama admin did nothing seriously with regards to this conflict. As it appears now, it seems the Obama administration is trying intensify the tension in Syria and consequently facilitate a ground base to establish a no-fly-zone in North Syria somewhere in the near future. Such a move, (in addition to its cost and technical possibility) in case of implementation, will be compatible with H. Clinton's plan for Syria and accordingly might be useful in her presidential race against D. Trump, who is advocating another policy in this matter.
This is a very dangerous policy; if my assumption and prediction in this regard are correct. Establishing a No-Fly-Zone in North Syria at this stage means the beginning of an endless total war; a total war, which undoubtedly will spread to other areas in the region by all means. Such a horrific event and its devastating consequences will not be a pleasant event for nobody. (By nobody, i mean all the internal, external actors and the poor Syrian people).
Note: I hope those genius in Washington and other capitals involved in this conflict do not start a stupid move like this in Syria at this stage.
M. Sirani 20.08.2016
Obama Administration Deliberately Handed Over Yemen To The Iranian Regime in Return For the Weak & Useless Nuclear Deal.
Briefly:
Different evidences indicate a fact that that Obama administration has sacrificed many issues and paid the Iranian Regime numerous advantages in different terms in order to make a weak & useless nuclear deal with the Islamic Regime. The chaotic situation in Yemen and superiority of Houthis group backed by Iran in this country is an example in this matter. All these devastating events happen in Yemen, while i warned the international community about Yemen in 2011. How on earth, the administration of Obama as the most powerful country in the world and its numerous strong intelligence and security services didn't have a reasonable and logical analysis with regards to various developments in Yemen throughout all these years is a questionable theme. Based on this brief info, i can say that participation of US army in Saudi Arabia coalition in war in Yemen was just a "Cat & Mouse" game in order to delude Arab countries with regards to the nuclear deal with Iran and the secret details behind the scene of this deal and nothing else.
The map above is part of my essay in this regard.
Title: Iran Should not Get the Nuclear Bomb.
Link: https://irancare.blogspot.no/2014/11/iran-should-not-get-nuclear-bomb.html
M. Sirani 20.08.2016
Different evidences indicate a fact that that Obama administration has sacrificed many issues and paid the Iranian Regime numerous advantages in different terms in order to make a weak & useless nuclear deal with the Islamic Regime. The chaotic situation in Yemen and superiority of Houthis group backed by Iran in this country is an example in this matter. All these devastating events happen in Yemen, while i warned the international community about Yemen in 2011. How on earth, the administration of Obama as the most powerful country in the world and its numerous strong intelligence and security services didn't have a reasonable and logical analysis with regards to various developments in Yemen throughout all these years is a questionable theme. Based on this brief info, i can say that participation of US army in Saudi Arabia coalition in war in Yemen was just a "Cat & Mouse" game in order to delude Arab countries with regards to the nuclear deal with Iran and the secret details behind the scene of this deal and nothing else.
The map above is part of my essay in this regard.
Title: Iran Should not Get the Nuclear Bomb.
Link: https://irancare.blogspot.no/2014/11/iran-should-not-get-nuclear-bomb.html
M. Sirani 20.08.2016
Friday, August 19, 2016
Breaking: It Seems the USA is Removing its Nuclear Weapons From Turkey and Moving Them to Romania.
Briefly: (I emphasize: If this story is true). As a result of "Kindergarten Foreign Policy", It seems Turkey is detaching from the West under the watch and before the eyes of Obama Administration.
There is a rumor in the media that the USA is removing its nuclear weapons from Turkey and is moving them to Romania.
If this story is true, this is a very big development in different terms and has many consequences in various forms, terms and scales.
First and foremost, this development would be a great victory for Russia and Iran. Removing the US nuclear weapons from Turkey after nearly 60-70 years means a lot for both Iran & Russia.
The consequences of this move, on the contrary, would be devastating in different terms for USA and EU. Here below, some possible negative consequences of this move would be briefly mentioned.
A- This development shows that all the strategists and policy makers in NATO, USA (Obama administration-J. Kerry & H. Clinton) and EU have not had any correct, reasonable, logical and reliable analysis with regards to various developments in Turkey in the last couple of years until recently, whether its domestic as well as its foreign affairs. If they had, they would have prevented such a disastrous event. This is a big failure mostly for Obama administration & NATO that they haven't done a good observation with regards to all the movements of Erdogan government in the last couple of years.
B- Removing nuclear weapons from Turkey and relocating them in Romania simply & clearly indicates a fact that the situation in Turkey is unstable. Regardless of the reaction of Turkey in this matter, which would be negative definitely, this event shows that NATO is experiencing a powerful earthquake in a way that some powerful external factors have forced USA & NATO to remove the nuclear weapons from the Geo-Strategically important territory of Turkey.
C- The negative consequences of this move are enormous & devastating. This event might highly likely put the EU membership of Turkey at a serious risk. I might say this event would put an end to that process automatically.
D- This event along with many other issues such as EU demands from Turkey, the presence of F. Gulen in the USA, some accusation about the recent military coup in Turkey, etc would highly likely deteriorate the relationship between Turkey and USA-EU in different terms including the situation of more than 3 million refugees, who are sheltered in Turkey. As a consequence, USA-EU and Turkey might not be able to achieve a good deal in this matter. As such, the EU might face a new waves of influx of refugees in the near future.
E- Based on many reasons, which i have briefly explored them in some previous notes, Turkey will highly likely expand its relationship in different terms with Russia & Iran in the region. Such a coalition will change the balance of power in the region to a large extent. This issue is not a pleasant event neither for the USA, nor for the EU nor for the Saudi Arabia nor for Egypt nor for some other Arab countries in the region including Israel.
F- This event will put an end to the dream of an independent Kurdish State at least for some decades to come; due to deeper and broader cooperation between Turkey, Iran, central government in Iraq (which is the puppet of Iranian regime) and POSSIBLY Bashar Assad.
G- This event should teach a good lesson to old-fashioned pundits and politicians in the USA and EU. The lesson is that it is the time that USA & EU should put an end to their 40-45 years old policy amid supporting and promoting various types of Islamic states, Islamic groups, and more generally Islamization in the Middle East and Africa. Because time has changed and any continuation in this matter would be disastrous and devastating first and foremost for the Western countries.
Note: Analyzing this event and its overall consequences is a huge discussion. What i mentioned above is just a brief explanation in this matter. Once again, i emphasize: If this news is true, this is a big fiasco for the USA, NATO and EU; on the contrary is a big win for the Iranian Regime & Russia at regional as well as global level.
M. Sirani 19.08.2016
There is a rumor in the media that the USA is removing its nuclear weapons from Turkey and is moving them to Romania.
If this story is true, this is a very big development in different terms and has many consequences in various forms, terms and scales.
First and foremost, this development would be a great victory for Russia and Iran. Removing the US nuclear weapons from Turkey after nearly 60-70 years means a lot for both Iran & Russia.
The consequences of this move, on the contrary, would be devastating in different terms for USA and EU. Here below, some possible negative consequences of this move would be briefly mentioned.
A- This development shows that all the strategists and policy makers in NATO, USA (Obama administration-J. Kerry & H. Clinton) and EU have not had any correct, reasonable, logical and reliable analysis with regards to various developments in Turkey in the last couple of years until recently, whether its domestic as well as its foreign affairs. If they had, they would have prevented such a disastrous event. This is a big failure mostly for Obama administration & NATO that they haven't done a good observation with regards to all the movements of Erdogan government in the last couple of years.
B- Removing nuclear weapons from Turkey and relocating them in Romania simply & clearly indicates a fact that the situation in Turkey is unstable. Regardless of the reaction of Turkey in this matter, which would be negative definitely, this event shows that NATO is experiencing a powerful earthquake in a way that some powerful external factors have forced USA & NATO to remove the nuclear weapons from the Geo-Strategically important territory of Turkey.
C- The negative consequences of this move are enormous & devastating. This event might highly likely put the EU membership of Turkey at a serious risk. I might say this event would put an end to that process automatically.
D- This event along with many other issues such as EU demands from Turkey, the presence of F. Gulen in the USA, some accusation about the recent military coup in Turkey, etc would highly likely deteriorate the relationship between Turkey and USA-EU in different terms including the situation of more than 3 million refugees, who are sheltered in Turkey. As a consequence, USA-EU and Turkey might not be able to achieve a good deal in this matter. As such, the EU might face a new waves of influx of refugees in the near future.
E- Based on many reasons, which i have briefly explored them in some previous notes, Turkey will highly likely expand its relationship in different terms with Russia & Iran in the region. Such a coalition will change the balance of power in the region to a large extent. This issue is not a pleasant event neither for the USA, nor for the EU nor for the Saudi Arabia nor for Egypt nor for some other Arab countries in the region including Israel.
F- This event will put an end to the dream of an independent Kurdish State at least for some decades to come; due to deeper and broader cooperation between Turkey, Iran, central government in Iraq (which is the puppet of Iranian regime) and POSSIBLY Bashar Assad.
G- This event should teach a good lesson to old-fashioned pundits and politicians in the USA and EU. The lesson is that it is the time that USA & EU should put an end to their 40-45 years old policy amid supporting and promoting various types of Islamic states, Islamic groups, and more generally Islamization in the Middle East and Africa. Because time has changed and any continuation in this matter would be disastrous and devastating first and foremost for the Western countries.
Note: Analyzing this event and its overall consequences is a huge discussion. What i mentioned above is just a brief explanation in this matter. Once again, i emphasize: If this news is true, this is a big fiasco for the USA, NATO and EU; on the contrary is a big win for the Iranian Regime & Russia at regional as well as global level.
M. Sirani 19.08.2016
Sunday, August 14, 2016
An Extremely Delusional and Misleading Assumption About Recent Moves of Turkey.
Briefly:
Some analysts claim that recent reconciliation in various terms between Turkey, Russia and Iran is just some opportunistic tactical moves of President Erdogan to take more advantage from the USA & EU. Such an assumption is delusional, misleading and extremely dangerous for the USA & EU in the long term based on many reasons, which some of them have been mentioned in my previous post.
Note: Once again i repeat my statement: Time has changed; Turkey is moving towards a new direction. But some politicians in the USA & EU do not see this move; because they are watching Turkey in 2016 through some glasses made during the Cold War Era (This is an extremely delusional, misleading and dangerous Mirror Imaging).
M. Sirani 14.08.2016
Some analysts claim that recent reconciliation in various terms between Turkey, Russia and Iran is just some opportunistic tactical moves of President Erdogan to take more advantage from the USA & EU. Such an assumption is delusional, misleading and extremely dangerous for the USA & EU in the long term based on many reasons, which some of them have been mentioned in my previous post.
Note: Once again i repeat my statement: Time has changed; Turkey is moving towards a new direction. But some politicians in the USA & EU do not see this move; because they are watching Turkey in 2016 through some glasses made during the Cold War Era (This is an extremely delusional, misleading and dangerous Mirror Imaging).
M. Sirani 14.08.2016
Saturday, August 13, 2016
Turkey is Rapidly Moving Towards Some Major Changes Including in Its Foreign Policy; The US and EU Should Be Concerned.
Briefly:
Turkey is rapidly moving towards some major changes; it seems the country is passing through a transitional phase in different terms including in its foreign policy. Some issues such as A- Recent Turkish-Russian rapprochement, B- The newly formed Russian-Turkish-Iranian coalition with regard to Syria, C- The scope and level of economic trade between Turkey and Iran-Russia, D- the current tension between USA and Turkey amid F. Gulen and recent military coup in the country, E- the tension between Turkey and EU amid many issues mainly EU membership for Turkey or the visa-free regulation for Turkish citizens, F- the notion that both Iran and Turkey are supporting the Muslim Brotherhood (Contrary to Saudi Arabia & Egypt), G- Iran and Turkey has similar policy (to some extent) with regards to creation of a independent Kurdish State in the region and many other issues, are some important signs that the US and EU should be concerned about them and as a result re-evaluate some of their policies with regard to Turkey. Some of these issues might not create a serious conflict for the USA & EU at this stage. But i'm pretty sure some of them will create a serious headache for the USA & EU in the long terms; of course, if we analyze them in a very professional and appropriate manner. As some examples, the position of NATO and the influx of refugees into the EU should be mentioned in this regard.
Note: To put it simply: Turkey is moving towards a new direction; while the USA and the EU are observing Turkey with some glasses made during the Cold War Era. (Extremely wrong & dangerous mirror imaging).
M. Sirani 13.08.2016
Turkey is rapidly moving towards some major changes; it seems the country is passing through a transitional phase in different terms including in its foreign policy. Some issues such as A- Recent Turkish-Russian rapprochement, B- The newly formed Russian-Turkish-Iranian coalition with regard to Syria, C- The scope and level of economic trade between Turkey and Iran-Russia, D- the current tension between USA and Turkey amid F. Gulen and recent military coup in the country, E- the tension between Turkey and EU amid many issues mainly EU membership for Turkey or the visa-free regulation for Turkish citizens, F- the notion that both Iran and Turkey are supporting the Muslim Brotherhood (Contrary to Saudi Arabia & Egypt), G- Iran and Turkey has similar policy (to some extent) with regards to creation of a independent Kurdish State in the region and many other issues, are some important signs that the US and EU should be concerned about them and as a result re-evaluate some of their policies with regard to Turkey. Some of these issues might not create a serious conflict for the USA & EU at this stage. But i'm pretty sure some of them will create a serious headache for the USA & EU in the long terms; of course, if we analyze them in a very professional and appropriate manner. As some examples, the position of NATO and the influx of refugees into the EU should be mentioned in this regard.
Note: To put it simply: Turkey is moving towards a new direction; while the USA and the EU are observing Turkey with some glasses made during the Cold War Era. (Extremely wrong & dangerous mirror imaging).
M. Sirani 13.08.2016
Monday, August 8, 2016
Warning: Nuclear Armed Pakistan And the Rise of Various Radical Islamic Groups; A Serious Global Threat Somewhere in the Future.
Briefly:
Any military coup as a solution to avoid such a catastrophic event (Conducted by some "secular army generals"; if exists any in reality) in Pakistan will highly likely fail due to the rapid, deep and broad Islamization within the Pakistani society. Any attempt in this regard will face either A- the same barrier as we saw in recent coup in Turkey or B- will highly likely drag Pakistan into a prolonged and devastating civil war between various groups including Taliban and Haqqani network. The US and EU politicians should pay attention to the current critical situation in Pakistan; understand that we are living in 2016 with new dangerous challenges not in 1970s-1980s during the Cold War and find a appropriate and fundamental solution for this country; before it's too late. Any negligence, miscalculation and delay in this matter will be disastrous in different terms for many people.
M. Sirani 08.08.2016
Any military coup as a solution to avoid such a catastrophic event (Conducted by some "secular army generals"; if exists any in reality) in Pakistan will highly likely fail due to the rapid, deep and broad Islamization within the Pakistani society. Any attempt in this regard will face either A- the same barrier as we saw in recent coup in Turkey or B- will highly likely drag Pakistan into a prolonged and devastating civil war between various groups including Taliban and Haqqani network. The US and EU politicians should pay attention to the current critical situation in Pakistan; understand that we are living in 2016 with new dangerous challenges not in 1970s-1980s during the Cold War and find a appropriate and fundamental solution for this country; before it's too late. Any negligence, miscalculation and delay in this matter will be disastrous in different terms for many people.
M. Sirani 08.08.2016
Sunday, July 24, 2016
A Warning: The Potentially Security Threat of "Pokémon Go" Game At the Age of Terror and Mass Shooting.
Briefly:
I leave aside the overall effects of Pokemon Go game on the mindset of current young generation. This is, in fact, the task of some experts in social psychology or anthropology not mine.
But i think in terms of security and safety, this game has the potentiality to be used in a very negative & devastating manner in the hands of some terrorists or mass shooters.
As an example, a skilled hacker linked to ISIS, Al-Qaeda or any other terrorist groups or a mass shooter or a child abuser might hack the game and lead some selected individual or group/s to a special location for a horrific assassination, hostage taking or a terrorist attack. There is some potentiality in this matter, which should neither be ignored nor underestimated, in my opinion. This is one of the negative side effects of the combination of Virtually & Reality in our daily lives and we should deal with it in a very careful, appropriate and professional manner; before it's too late.
Note: I hope my prediction would not come true but in case of hacking Pokemon Go game and a tragic event after that family/ies of victim/s or a state can simply sue Niantic, iOC or Apple for large amount of money due to this "loophole"; if i may call it.
I leave aside the overall effects of Pokemon Go game on the mindset of current young generation. This is, in fact, the task of some experts in social psychology or anthropology not mine.
But i think in terms of security and safety, this game has the potentiality to be used in a very negative & devastating manner in the hands of some terrorists or mass shooters.
As an example, a skilled hacker linked to ISIS, Al-Qaeda or any other terrorist groups or a mass shooter or a child abuser might hack the game and lead some selected individual or group/s to a special location for a horrific assassination, hostage taking or a terrorist attack. There is some potentiality in this matter, which should neither be ignored nor underestimated, in my opinion. This is one of the negative side effects of the combination of Virtually & Reality in our daily lives and we should deal with it in a very careful, appropriate and professional manner; before it's too late.
Note: I hope my prediction would not come true but in case of hacking Pokemon Go game and a tragic event after that family/ies of victim/s or a state can simply sue Niantic, iOC or Apple for large amount of money due to this "loophole"; if i may call it.
M. Sirani 24.07.2016
Saturday, July 23, 2016
Don't Close Your Eyes to Current Arrest and Detaining in Turkey.
Briefly:
There are probably millions Turkish and Kurds (From Turkey), who are living and working in the EU countries. If Erdogan government would continue with such undemocratic policies, there is high probability that tension in Turkey will spillover into other EU countries in different terms, forms and scales, e.g. conflict between different Turkish & Kurdish groups.
M. Sirani 23.07.2016
There are probably millions Turkish and Kurds (From Turkey), who are living and working in the EU countries. If Erdogan government would continue with such undemocratic policies, there is high probability that tension in Turkey will spillover into other EU countries in different terms, forms and scales, e.g. conflict between different Turkish & Kurdish groups.
M. Sirani 23.07.2016
Thursday, July 21, 2016
NATO and EU Should Be Aware That Turkey is Rapidly Moving Towards a Totally Wrong & Destabilizing and Dangerous Direction in Different Terms.
Briefly:
What we are observing currently in Turkey is not some simple and temporarily Politicization & Securitization policy (Copenhagen School) derived from Erdogan & AKP counter-coup measures. This is, in fact, the beginning of an extreme & endless dark era in the history of Turkey. The consequences of this dark era would be devastating in different terms not only for Turkey and Turkish people but also for the EU, NATO and the region.
Note: During an interview with Al Jazeera news agency, R. Erdogan said: there is some probability that a pilot among the coup plotters shot down the Russian jet (This is a simple statement; but it means a lot in reality. NATO & EU should not underestimate nor ignore such alarming signs and statements. In short, Turkey will highly likely shift its direction in various terms including in foreign affairs. The eyes of current Turkish political system are gradually focusing on the East, instead of the West, in my opinion).
M. Sirani 21.07.2016
What we are observing currently in Turkey is not some simple and temporarily Politicization & Securitization policy (Copenhagen School) derived from Erdogan & AKP counter-coup measures. This is, in fact, the beginning of an extreme & endless dark era in the history of Turkey. The consequences of this dark era would be devastating in different terms not only for Turkey and Turkish people but also for the EU, NATO and the region.
Note: During an interview with Al Jazeera news agency, R. Erdogan said: there is some probability that a pilot among the coup plotters shot down the Russian jet (This is a simple statement; but it means a lot in reality. NATO & EU should not underestimate nor ignore such alarming signs and statements. In short, Turkey will highly likely shift its direction in various terms including in foreign affairs. The eyes of current Turkish political system are gradually focusing on the East, instead of the West, in my opinion).
M. Sirani 21.07.2016
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
14 Turkish Navy Ships, without Any Contact With the Headquarter, are Still Missing.
Is Turkey a stable ally for NATO? Can Turkey with such a instability & fragmented society become a member of the EU?
Is Turkey a stable & secure country for protecting the US nuclear weapon on its territory?
M. Sirani 20.07.2016
Reference:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-attempt-turkish-navy-ships-admirals-military-president-erdogan-a7144141.html
An Alarming Event for the USA, EU and NATO: Incirlik Air Base in Turkey is Still Without Power.
Briefly:
Following the recent military coup, the Turkish authority cut off the power in the Incirlik Air Base due to some security measures. Contrary to many requests of the Pentagon, the Turkish authority has not restore the power yet. This event, even at temporarily scale, is not a simple matter and should be taken seriously based on many reasons.
Erdogan & Akp will highly likely use the following leverages as extortion in order to achieve some goals including the extradition of F. Gulen from the USA.
A- The large numbers of refugees sheltered in Turkey.
B- The importance of using the Turkish territory in war against ISIS.
C- The importance of using the Turkish territory in any type of conflict against Russia.
D- The existence of some US nuclear weapon in the Incirlik Air Base (I hope, I'm wrong in this particular matter).
By this type of move, Turkey can put the USA & the EU at a very critical and difficult position at the present. The consequences of this move are not pleasant neither for USA, nor for the EU nor for the NATO at short and long term.
Note: In my opinion, as inherent characteristics of the rapid Islamization, Erdogan and AKP party are turning Turkey into a revisionist state; a state with some unpredictable, unexpected and adventurous characteristics and behaviors. This should be an alarming sign for the USA, EU and NATO.
M. Sirani 20.07.2016
Following the recent military coup, the Turkish authority cut off the power in the Incirlik Air Base due to some security measures. Contrary to many requests of the Pentagon, the Turkish authority has not restore the power yet. This event, even at temporarily scale, is not a simple matter and should be taken seriously based on many reasons.
Erdogan & Akp will highly likely use the following leverages as extortion in order to achieve some goals including the extradition of F. Gulen from the USA.
A- The large numbers of refugees sheltered in Turkey.
B- The importance of using the Turkish territory in war against ISIS.
C- The importance of using the Turkish territory in any type of conflict against Russia.
D- The existence of some US nuclear weapon in the Incirlik Air Base (I hope, I'm wrong in this particular matter).
By this type of move, Turkey can put the USA & the EU at a very critical and difficult position at the present. The consequences of this move are not pleasant neither for USA, nor for the EU nor for the NATO at short and long term.
Note: In my opinion, as inherent characteristics of the rapid Islamization, Erdogan and AKP party are turning Turkey into a revisionist state; a state with some unpredictable, unexpected and adventurous characteristics and behaviors. This should be an alarming sign for the USA, EU and NATO.
M. Sirani 20.07.2016
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
The USA & The EU should Be Prepared For More Unexpected Surprises From Turkey in the Next Coming Days, Weeks & Months.
Briefly:
The high ranking politicians in the USA & EU should pay attention to a brief warning as follows.
Turkey is neither Iran nor Iraq nor Afghanistan in different terms. An Islamic political system in Turkey means a huge disaster for NATO, EU and USA in different terms.
Note: Leave the joke that "Islam is compatible with democracy and liberal values" to third countries and save Turkey. Otherwise, you lose & regret a lot; much more than you ever imagine. Remind you that we are in 2016 and facing serious and existential threat like "The rise of various radical Islamic groups" across Asia, Africa and the Middle East for many years or possibly decades to come.
M. Sirani 19.07.2016
The high ranking politicians in the USA & EU should pay attention to a brief warning as follows.
Turkey is neither Iran nor Iraq nor Afghanistan in different terms. An Islamic political system in Turkey means a huge disaster for NATO, EU and USA in different terms.
Note: Leave the joke that "Islam is compatible with democracy and liberal values" to third countries and save Turkey. Otherwise, you lose & regret a lot; much more than you ever imagine. Remind you that we are in 2016 and facing serious and existential threat like "The rise of various radical Islamic groups" across Asia, Africa and the Middle East for many years or possibly decades to come.
M. Sirani 19.07.2016
The Possibility of Re-Introduction of Death Penalty & Further Implementation of Regressive & Totalitarian Policy-Regulation in Turkey.
Briefly:
Erdogan and AKP party might probably use some issues such as A- The large numbers of refugees sheltered in Turkey, B- the necessary use of Turkish territory in war against ISIS and in case of any further tension against Russia in order to re-introduce and implement death penalty and further regressive policy and regulation in Turkey. (I'm not perfectly sure; but i think there is some probability that Erdogan would try to take advantage from these issues and impose his ideas.
Note: Such a move will put the west particularly the EU in a very difficult and critical position in different terms mainly in security matter.
M. Sirani 19.07.2016
Erdogan and AKP party might probably use some issues such as A- The large numbers of refugees sheltered in Turkey, B- the necessary use of Turkish territory in war against ISIS and in case of any further tension against Russia in order to re-introduce and implement death penalty and further regressive policy and regulation in Turkey. (I'm not perfectly sure; but i think there is some probability that Erdogan would try to take advantage from these issues and impose his ideas.
Note: Such a move will put the west particularly the EU in a very difficult and critical position in different terms mainly in security matter.
M. Sirani 19.07.2016
Warning: An Islamic Coup-Revolution in Turkey Has Started.
Briefly:
Different evidences (E.g. dismissing 2745 judges, nearly 15000 personnel of the educational system, couple of thousands military personnel) indicate the fact that Erdogan and his AKP party have taken advantage from recent unsuccessful coup and changing the course of events in Turkey towards a very wrong and dangerous direction. Based on many evidences, i believe that Erdogan and AKP party have conducted an Islamic Coup-Revolution in Turkey; this time in a very clear and visible manner.
Due to many reasons, this will be a dangerous and destructive development not only for Turkey and Turkish people but also for the USA, EU and NATO in the short as well as long run in different terms. This move should be stopped, before it's too late.
Note: In the next coming days (Probably tomorrow Wednesday, after the national security meeting) Erdogan would announce more details in this matter.
We should say good bye to secular political system in Turkey and be prepared for broad tension, uprising and revolt in Turkey in the next coming months, in my opinion.
M. Sirani 19.07.2016
Different evidences (E.g. dismissing 2745 judges, nearly 15000 personnel of the educational system, couple of thousands military personnel) indicate the fact that Erdogan and his AKP party have taken advantage from recent unsuccessful coup and changing the course of events in Turkey towards a very wrong and dangerous direction. Based on many evidences, i believe that Erdogan and AKP party have conducted an Islamic Coup-Revolution in Turkey; this time in a very clear and visible manner.
Due to many reasons, this will be a dangerous and destructive development not only for Turkey and Turkish people but also for the USA, EU and NATO in the short as well as long run in different terms. This move should be stopped, before it's too late.
Note: In the next coming days (Probably tomorrow Wednesday, after the national security meeting) Erdogan would announce more details in this matter.
We should say good bye to secular political system in Turkey and be prepared for broad tension, uprising and revolt in Turkey in the next coming months, in my opinion.
M. Sirani 19.07.2016
Friday, July 1, 2016
The Brexit.
Briefly:
Many politicians as well as pundits are not fully aware of the overall impact, consequences and complications of the Brexit in short & long term at national, regional and global levels. In this respect, i can simply say that the Brexit like some other important historical events such as Westphalian Peace Treaty, the second world war or the collapse of the Soviet Union will profoundly change and shape the international politics in different terms in the long run.
Note: As far as i review the news in this matter, i see most of the articles are exploring some issues such as uncertainty in the market, invoking Article 50, how to reverse the referendum and some shallow explanations like these. These articles are, in fact, simplifying an important historical event in our contemporary world. Brexit is much more than these shallow articles. The scar of Brexit will deeply change and shape the face of international politics in different terms. Germany & France can gain a lot from this event, if they identify the opportunities resulted from Brexit. The Brexit is, in addition, the starting point of the fall of United Kingdom Empire. And many other events,,,,,,,,,,,,
M. Sirani 01.07.2016
Many politicians as well as pundits are not fully aware of the overall impact, consequences and complications of the Brexit in short & long term at national, regional and global levels. In this respect, i can simply say that the Brexit like some other important historical events such as Westphalian Peace Treaty, the second world war or the collapse of the Soviet Union will profoundly change and shape the international politics in different terms in the long run.
Note: As far as i review the news in this matter, i see most of the articles are exploring some issues such as uncertainty in the market, invoking Article 50, how to reverse the referendum and some shallow explanations like these. These articles are, in fact, simplifying an important historical event in our contemporary world. Brexit is much more than these shallow articles. The scar of Brexit will deeply change and shape the face of international politics in different terms. Germany & France can gain a lot from this event, if they identify the opportunities resulted from Brexit. The Brexit is, in addition, the starting point of the fall of United Kingdom Empire. And many other events,,,,,,,,,,,,
M. Sirani 01.07.2016
Thursday, May 5, 2016
Briefly: Some of MY Predictions About the Next Couple of Years.
Briefly:
The next couple
of years would not be calm & steady for all of us in different terms &
scales, due to the fact that we would highly likely face many unpredictable
events. Among these events, which occurrence of any of them, would
automatically impact other parts of the world: A- Highly likely presidency of
D. Trump and the effect of this event in different terms whether at domestic
level within the USA or at the global level B- A long term low oil price and
its devastating consequences in different terms (social, economic, and
political) at national, regional and global levels, C- Highly likely defeating most
parts of ISIS in both Syria & Iraq and accordingly spreading some members
of ISIS around the world mostly in the Middle East, Africa and EU, D- The
sanctions on Iran have been lifted. This issue would empower & strengthen
Iran in different terms. As a result, we should observe more offensive &
expansionist move from Iran and consequently more hostility between Iran and
Israel-Saudi Arabia in the region. E- Due to the fact that Iran & Russia
have the upper hands in Syria, the West would try to weaken Russia in Ukraine
in retaliation. In case of Presidency of Clinton we would
probably witness escalation of tension in Ukraine. In case of no diplomatic
solution in Ukraine, the tension might spread to the Baltic States, (etc),
could be mentioned.
M. Sirani 05.05.2016
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
The Vision 2030 Reform in Saudi Arabia: A Risky Reform:
The Vision 2030 Plan (Briefly)
Undoubtedly, this
is a massive economic plan for Saudi Arabia. Due to
some facts such as: A- economic sector in every country including Saudi Arabia
is interconnected and interwoven with other social, cultural and political sectors,
B- a simple reform in one sector (E.g. economic sector) will undoubtedly impact
other sectors (E.g. social, cultural and political sectors), C- the massive
scale of this economic reform, we should undoubtedly expect that this huge economic
reform will automatically impact (Domino effect) other social, cultural and
political sectors (each to some extent) within Saudi Arabia’s society beyond
the will and power of Saudi authority or anyone else. As such, in my opinion, the Vision 2030
reform should be accompanied with some social, cultural and political reforms
compatible with this huge economic reform, Saudi Arabia#s society and some other external factors at regional ^ global level. Otherwise this reform cannot achieve its main goals in an effective and
comprehensive manner or in some cases this economic reform might be counterproductive and create
instability within Saudi Arabia. It should be added that analyzing the overall aspect of what i have briefly note above with regards to Vision 2030 and its consequences is beyond the scope of this short & impromptu note.
However, In order to illustrate a small part of my opinion in this regard, I use the White Revolution Reforms performed by King Pahlavi
in Iran as an example. The White Revolution was mainly focused on economic terms not social,
cultural and political sectors in Iran. As such, the newly economic reform, its
consequences and complications were not compatible with previous social,
cultural and political sectors in those years in Iran. The result of this
contradiction and incompatibility was one of the main reasons of the disaster in
1979, and what we are observing today. This is a historical fact; we cannot
perform a reform in one sector successfully within a society (no matter where) without performing compatible reforms in other sectors as well. It is impossible. According to
this plan, for example, the Saudi authority would cut the subsidies and would
try to increase the taxes. These reforms would change the Saudi’s society in
economic term. But these reforms are not pure economic, due to the fact that
their implementation would automatically impact the lives of Saudis people in
terms of cutting subsidies & increasing taxes. In other words, these two economic reforms would impact social, cultural and political sectors in Saudi Arabia. As such, along with these
economic reforms, some political, social and cultural reforms (E.g. education) should be
performed; otherwise these two economic reforms would create social, cultural
and political instability and uprising in Saudi Arabia whether in short or long
term.
Regardless of some negative points such as cutting the subsidies and privatization, This is a very
huge project and in case of implementation, it would automatically
impact various social, cultural and political sectors within Saudi Arabia’s society and even beyond. In order
to avoid any complication in this matter in the short and long term, it would
be wise that Saudi Arabia authority would re-evaluate this project
in terms of policy analysis and risk management particularly at this stage that the whole Middle East (including Saudi Arabia itself to some extent) is experiencing various types of social, cultural, religious, ethnic and political instability & conflict.
M. Sirani
25.04.2016
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)