Sunday, November 9, 2014

President Obama Waged the War Against ISIS, in Order to Win the Heart and Mind of Khamenei For a Nuclear Deal.

Briefly:

There have been many rumors that the CIA has been training, assisting and supporting various Islamic groups (particularly Sunni faction) in different parts of the Middle East in order to achieve particular goals. We all heard different news that the USA authority is, for example, training some groups in Jordan or Turkey. Some of the U.S. officials are also admitting this point in various occasions. The U.S. officials have, for example, repeatedly claimed that they are helping and supporting Syrian opposition in their struggle against Assad's Regime. Some of these rumors and news go further and include ISIS group as well. Although the role of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and some other Arab countries cannot be underestimated or undermined in this matter, some of these news
accuse the CIA and the U.S. government for the formation of a group like ISIS in the region.

Considering this issue, one might wonder, if this is the case, why the USA has decided to militarily attack to its creature i.e. ISIS at this particular of time?  The answer to this question lies in the peculiar and contradictory foreign policy of the Obama administration.

When it comes to the foreign policy, the reaction of the Obama administration has been accompanied with some type of miscalculation, mismanagement and failure in various occasions. We all remember the hasty reaction of President Obama with regard to the uprising in Egypt in 2011, when the President simply rejected then Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak in the favor of the God Father of all Islamic Groups in the Middle East i.e.  the Muslim Brotherhood. Don't misunderstand my words in this matter; i don't defend the corrupt and despotic political system of Hosni Mubarak. My point is, when i as the President of the most powerful country in the world i.e. the USA, have only two options of bad (Hosni Mubarak) and worse (the Muslim Brotherhood) with regards to an important country like Egypt, i should choose the bad option not the worse one.

I as the president of the USA, should choose the bad option not the worse one, because my decision in this matter determines the safety and security of my close allies i.e. Israel and the EU based on geopolitical and geographical position of Egypt with regards to Israel, Red Sea and the Suez Canal. By choosing the Muslim Brotherhood, the Obama administration was minimized the safety and security of Israel and the EU countries in different terms. Honestly, I,m not a fan of military coup at all, but in this particular case, we should thank general El- Sisi that saved the Egyptian people, Israel and the EU from a barbaric organization like the Muslim Brotherhood. One might wonder, what should Obama do? In those days, President Obama could put an extra pressure on Hosni Mubarak and force him to perform some real reforms in Egypt, due to the fact that the USA is funding Egypt with an amount of  nearly $1.5 billion dollar annually; instead of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. This event was one of the biggest mistake of the Obama administration.

The withdrawal of the U.S. troops from Iraq in 2011 was another huge mistake of the current administration. I fully aware that the president Obama had promised to do this job during his first presidential campaign. In this respect, i have to emphasize that i'm  totally against any foreign occupation. But, if i put my feet in the shoes of the president of the USA, i should consider some other issues. As such, i should change my policy. If i was the president of the USA in that particular time, i would not have withdrew the U.S. troops from Iraq, simply due to the presence of the Iranian Regime my first enemy in the region, Iran's nuclear activity, Iran's progressive expansionist characteristic, and the close relationship between Tehran and Damascus. As a president of the USA, i should simply have known, if i withdraw my troops from Iraq, i would facilitate the best opportunity for my enemy i.e. Iran in the Middle East. By such a move, i would minimize the safety and security of my allies in the region as well.

The policies of the Obama administration with regards to current tension in Syria and Ukraine have also been accompanied with huge miscalculation and mismanagement. The result of such policies has causes many problems in different terms and at the same time has disappointed many people around the world. The combination of all these failures has forced the Obama administration to put all its eggs on just one basket in order to achieve and preserve three main objectives 1- The reputation of Barack Obama as one of the best presidents of the U.S. history, 2- The Democratic Party as the best political party in the USA, and 3- The USA as the most powerful and important country, which can solve any problem in the world. This basket is simply the nuclear activity of the Iranian Regime.

If the Obama administration would be able to make a deal with Iran in this important matter, the administration might be able to achieve these three objectives to some extent. To this end, the Obama administration has been trying to use every tools it can. But, there is a problem. The problem is that the supreme leader Khamenei does not trust the USA at all. In many occasions, Khamenei has repeatedly claimed that the USA says something, but later it does something completely difference. Or the USA cannot be trusted at all. In a perfect and comprehensive harmony with Khamenei, all the Iranian lobbyists, whether in the USA or the EU countries, repeat the same statement but with different tunes and words. All these statements, however, advertise one thing: the USA should build the trust with Iran; the USA should act (not just talk) in a way that Ayatollah Khamenei would trust the will and intention of the USA.

The military attacks against ISIS and the recent Obama's letter to Khamenei could be understood in this respect. In this letter, President Obama has clearly admitted that he would guaranty the interests of the Iranian Regime in the region. When it comes to Obama's plan against ISIS, we are facing with the same scenario. Firstly, ISIS is not a newly emerged terrorist organization. Secondly, as i have explained in my latest essay entitled" Obama's plan against ISIS: a fundamental solution or opening a new Pandora's Box in the Middle East", the current military operations in Iraq and Syria are just beneficial for Bashar Assad and the Iranian Regime. By such moves, letters and possibly hidden discussion, the Obama administration would try to win the heart and mind of Ayatollah Khamenei, at the expense of the Iranian people, American allies in the region and the American people, just in order to make a nuclear deal with the Islamic Regime.

This issue raises some important questions for me; which i would try to find  reasonable answers for them.
How did the Obama administration discuss this issue with the members of the coalition mostly the Arab countries? Did the administration tell the Arab countries that they are going to appease the Iranian Regime by attacking ISIS, in order to make a nuclear deal? Or did the administration lie the Arab countries in this matter?
Whatever the answers to these questions would be, two thing are to some extent clear for me. 1- The way that the politicians in Israel do not trust the USA anymore. 2- Maybe the politicians in Turkey analyzed the war against ISIS the same as i did in this short note. As such, the country did not join the war against ISIS as the USA wished and expected.

In sum, Iran might sign a nuclear deal with the world powers in the end of the November, although, the country has not compiled with IAEA's demands in an appropriate and comprehensive manner yet. But Iran is secretly pursuing its nuclear program until the country would obtain its nuclear weapon. Iran needs it. The inherently ideological and expansionist characteristics of the Islamic Regime force the Iranian Regime to obtain nuclear weapon.


M. Sirani                                     09.11.2014