Declaring Jerusalem As the Capital of Israel is the First Step of A Bigger Plan; Relocating Palestinian People to Sinai Peninsula.

Briefly:

An old plan has resurfaced on the table of The USA, Israel, Egypt & Saudi Arabia. According to this secret deal, Palestinian people would be settled in Sinai Peninsula and Egypt would receive $84 billion dollars partly from Saudi Arabia, Israel & USA in return for this plan.
This plan would not solve the Israeli & Palestinian conflict in an effective, fundamental & sustainable manner. On the contrary, this plan, in case of further implementation, would create more chaos & tension across the Islamic countries.

Note: Antidote for this wrong plan at First Step: Declaring Independent State of Palestine and East Jerusalem as its Capital by the UN, Arab League or Organization of Islamic Cooperation.


M. Sirani                       09.12.2017  

Would Israel Share Part of Jerusalem With Palestinian Authority- People At the End of the Possible Peace Deal as Trump's Speech Projects? (I Don't Think So).

Briefly:

In his speech today about Jerusalem, President Trump said: "We want an agreement that is a great deal for the Israelis and a great deal for the Palestinians. We are not taking a position of any final status issues including the specific boundaries of the Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem or the resolution of contested borders. Those questions are up to the parties involved" (Worldnews, 2017).

Following this speech some in the media have interpreted this paragraph of Trump's speech as an open hatch, which indicates that there is some possibility that Israel would share some part of Jerusalem with Palestinians at the end of a possible peace deal. This issue raises an important question as follows: Would Israel share some part of its officially recognized capital Jerusalem with Palestinian authority & people at the end of a possible peace deal in the future?

My answer to this question is a big NO. Some might wonder why? This is the story. If president Trump & current Israeli government wanted to truly & honestly offer such an opportunity to Palestinians somewhere in the future, Trump could explain his deep intention in this regard with better phrase. Instead of this paragraph noted above, Trump could simply say: I declare half of Jerusalem as the official capital of Israel and other half of Jerusalem as the official capital of Palestinian State, which would be officially recognized after the final peace deal with Israel. By a paragraph like this, Trump & Israeli government could show their trustworthy & honesty to the Palestinian authority & people and by this move they encourage Palestinians to participate the peace deal negotiations much better than before.

In my opinion, the main reason behind this paragraph is not facilitating an opportunity for Palestinian people & Israel would not share part of its capital Jerusalem with anybody else not now not in the future. The main reasons of Trump behind this paragraph are as follows:

A- Killing the time for continuation of a futile peace process.

B- Deceiving Palestinians, Arab States, etc to continue with a peace negotiations, hoping to get some part of Jerusalem at the end of a possible peace deal in the future, which would in reality not happen.

C- Unilaterally deceleration of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is a clear violation of the international laws & the UN resolution. By using this paragraph and accordingly encouraging Palestinian to participate in the negotiations for a peace deal, the USA & Israel would try to undermine & mitigate the global condemnation & overall backlashes in different terms with regard to this illegal move that they did today.

D- This deceleration has already caused enormous anger among Muslim states & non-state actors around the world. Some of these states & non-state actors would try to retaliate in different terms in response to this move. An ongoing peace deal negotiations might prevent some states & non-state actors to perform some harsh & violently reaction against the USA & Israel.

These are the main reasons behind this part of Trump's speech. As i said in the beginning of this short note, the chance that Israel would voluntarily share some part of its capital with Palestinian people somewhere in the future is nearly impossible. If they wanted, they could have declared it today.


M. Sirani                       06.12.2017       






Reference: http://www.worldnews.easybranches.com/regions/middle-east/full-video-and-transcript-trump-s-speech-recognizing-jerusalem-as-the-capital-of-israel-508874

Moving The U.S. Embassy To Jerusalem. What Might Be The Main Reasons Behind This Possible Move?

Briefly:

The overall negative consequences of this move in a chaotic & volatile region like the current Middle East are Chrystal clear & needless to explore. That's why, since 1995 that this "Jerusalem Embassy Act" was passed by the 104th Congress, none of the U.S. presidents executed this act. Considering this brief introduction, there are some rumors that Trump administration might declare Jerusalem as the capital of Israel & consequently moves the U.S. Embassy to this city. This issue raises an important questions as follows: What might be the main reasons behind this possible move?

Based on my knowledge about president Trump, the overall moves of his administration and some other ongoing events within the USA & the Middle East, i have come to the following possible reasons in this regard.

A- The First Possible Reason: Trump's Weaknesses: 
Contrary to what president Trump & some of his followers claim, D. Trump does not have a proper knowledge & understanding about foreign affairs & generally speaking how the foreign policy and the role of a super power like the USA at regional & global level should be. In addition to this weakness, D. Trump has another big problem and that is his attitude that he wants to govern the state the way that he has run his business. This attitude means that due to the fact that Trump is the boss or the president, he knows better than others and everybody around him should accept & follow his order no matter what. The combination of these two characteristics have caused many chaos, misunderstanding & mistakes performed by Trump administration around the world. In order to mitigate these weaknesses, D. Trump has different techniques. One of them is "spreading rumor about something that he might do or not do in the near future".
By spreading the rumor about some event that might happen or not happen in the near future, many politicians & pundits would react. D. Trump & his close allies go through all comments & critics & try to choose the best option & accordingly perform less mistakes. The current rumor about moving U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem might be partly due to this reason.
D. Trump uses this technique in another occasion and that is when he wants to impose his idea or opinion forcefully & indirectly on one of his cabinet members & advisers or he is not satisfied with them based on any reason whatsoever. In this respect, the case of replacement of S. R. Tillerson with M. Pompeo is a good example. The rumor in this regard, forced S. Tillerson to suddenly leave the State Department & go to the White House. We have seen such a trick in case of S. J. Sessions couple of months ago as well.

B- The Second Possible Reason: Good Cop-Bad Cop policy-Trump's Model: 
D. Trump and his hotshot son-in-law without any experience in foreign policy & foreign affairs have decided to make a peace deal between Israel & Palestine. This is not an easy task specially for these two gentlemen. They have probably hit the wall at the present time. That's why, D. Trump has spread the rumor in this regard and would try by using this leverage, would force the Palestinian authority & some in Arab states to accept whatever Trump administration dictates throughout the entire peace process. Or this move might be a some type of blackmail. As it appears the Gulf States have a plan to create An Arab NATO. By a rumor about moving U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, Trump wants to indirectly force the Arab States to buy all their necessary military weapons & equipment for this matter from the USA and not other powerful competitors such as the EU, China or Russia.
A type of invisible Coercion in all these cases mentioned above. This might be one of the main reasons behind this possible move.

C- The Third Possible Reason: Domestic Problem At Home: 
Whether anyone within Trump administration, close allies or campaign have intentionally or unintentionally coordinated or cooperated with Russian authority or some wealthy Russian individuals are unclear issue to me at least up until this moment. But one thing is clear for me & that is that the Russian finger prints (Governmental or non-governmental or both are unknown for me) in 2016 U.S. election are clearly visible. This allegation has caused & would cause huge problem for Trump administration in the future as well. In such a desperate situation, declaring Jerusalem as the capital of Israel might be a great help. The declaration in this regard would mobilize the entire powerful Israeli lobby behind D. Trump and accordingly would strengthen and empower his position in this internal battle. This might be one of the main reasons behind this possible move.

D- The Fourth Reason: Business:
There is an allegation against General Flynn that he wanted to secretly promote a plan to build some nuclear plants across the Middle East. This was a collective plan between American, Russian, French & Israeli companies. According to Wall Street Journal, "The plan was projected to generate $250 billion in revenue for U.S. companies".   
We all know Kushner's company is in a very difficult financial problem. The Building 666 in New York & the huge debt of this building that like Guillotine has stood above the neck of Kushners is known for the entire world. Considering these issues, there might be a very fat & beneficial business contract behind the scene. Therefore Trump administration & J. Kushner want to declare Jerusalem the capital of Israel to benefit from such a economic deal, which some Jewish Israeili or American are possibly involved like the case of nuclear plants of General Flynn. This might one of the main reasons behind this possible move.

As i said from the beginning of this brief explanation, the overall negative consequences of this move whether in the peace process between Israeli & Palestinian authority or in the Middle East or generally speaking among 1.5 billion Muslims around the world are Chrystal clear. Some might claim that Trump would do this move in order to keep his promise during the election or empower the position of his favorite candidate in upcoming Alabama election. In response to these arguments i should say that there is no doubt that this move would cover these issues to some extent. But we should bear in mind that there have been numerous examples in the past year presidency that Trump has tried to broke some of his promises.
During the election, for example, Trump said he would not tough medicaid & medicare for poor & low income families. Moreover Trump said he would not deport the dreamers (DACA ACT). Furthermore he said, he would not deport illegal immigrants if they have not done any criminal activities. A simple review about Trump's resume in the past year shows that D. Trump has multiple times tried to break his promises in these regards & or at least undermine the legitimacy of these rules. When it comes to empowering the position of the Republican candidate in upcoming election in Alabama, Trump could perform some other moves with less backlash & negative consequences. Thus, these types of shallow arguments cannot justify such a move with such huge consequences specially at the time that Trump & his son-in-law are struggling to achieve a historical credit with regard to make a peace deal between Israel & Palestine. However, as far as i analyze this rumor, i don't see any other reason for such a wrong move at the present time; except one of the reasons mentioned above or the combination of some of them.



Note: Some in Israel are happy about this news that Trump might declare Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. This people don't know about the overall impact of this move, current situation of the Middle East & many other future events. Today is not 1948, nor is 1967 And the future events of the Middle East do not move in the direction of those GOLDEN YEARS. In short, if i was an Israeli citizen & loved my state, i wouldn't be happy about this move specially at this particular time based on many reasons.






M. Sirani                   03.12.2017

 

An Antidote For Possible Plot in Lebanon (A Solution).

Briefly:


As an Iranian in exile, i'm totally against the Iranian Regime & its proxies. However, based on my analysis about overall consequences & side effects of this plan (Destabilization of Lebanon, South of Syria, etc etc), i have come to some reasonable conclusions as follows.
Based on my analysis, this plan not only do not mitigate & weaken the position of Iran & Hezbollah in both Syria & Lebanon, on the contrary, it would strengthen & empower them in the region. In addition, this plan, in terms of implementation, would cause a huge destruction, large number of collateral damages and hundreds of thousands or probably millions refugees & displaced people around the entire Middle East or maybe more in some parts of Africa as well.
Due to this analysis, i believe as an ordinary human being, this is my responsibility to prevent such a disaster as much as i can. Here below is one of my solutions for preventing such a disaster in the Middle East.

A well- organized & inclusive national rally in the entire Lebanon demanding Hariri's return to the country would to a large extent dismantle the possible plot in Lebanon. This rally should repeatedly continue until S. Hariri would return back to Lebanon & save the country from another useless, bloody & devastating war & civil war.



M. Sirani                        12.11.2017

Warning: Those, Who Have Planned to Destabilize Lebanon Hoping to Defeat Hezbollah & Undermine Iran's Role in Lebanon, Should Not Once or Twice, But Also Multiple Times Reevaluate Their Plan in This Regard.

Briefly:

Undoubtedly, any attempt in this regard, would cause a broad destruction, couple of hundreds of thousands or probably millions displaced refugees and large numbers of collateral damages. But this attempt not only would not achieve its main objectives i.e. destroying Hezbollah & the influence of Iran; on the contrary would empower & strengthen the position of Iran & Hezbollah at home & abroad. Such an attempt, in addition, would undoubtedly change the face of the Middle East in the benefit of Iran.

Note: A quick review in this blog, clearly shows that I'm among those Iranians in exile, who strongly, reasonably & logically believe that the Iranian regime cannot, will not & shall not accept, tolerate and perform any tangible reform somewhere in the future based on its inherent & structural characteristics. Based on these special inherent & structural characteristics, A simple reform in the Iranian regime would cause the sudden & total collapse of this regime exactly like those "Perestroika & Glasnost" reforms of M. Gorbachev, which led to the total collapse of the Soviet Union & its bloc. As such, in my opinion, this regime should be overthrown without any doubt. But, based on my analysis about various factors with regards to this possible event, i can tell you by high level of certainty that such a plan would end up into a catastrophic fiasco & accordingly, the Iranian regime & its allies would be the final winners of this plot. My suggestion: reevaluate your plan in this regard not once or twice but also multiple times. Because this plan, in terms of implementation, would cost you a lot more than damaging the Iranian regime & its proxies. 


M. Sirani                        11.11.2017     

Warning: Following the Blockade of Yemen, Houthis Might Paralyze the Ship Routes in the Gulf of Aden or Bab-El-Mandeb Strait By Their Missiles & Rockets.

Briefly:
As I Said in 2015, Yemen is A Quagmire Worse Than Afghanistan or Syria. The country is currently suffering from all kinds of disaster such as famine, lake of food, water, medicine & different types of diseases such as cholera. The recent imposed blockade puts the life of millions innocent people at serious risk. This horrific condition would force the Houthis to react in every possible manner they can. I have said this in 2015 & say it again: The Houthis can paralyze the ship routes in the Gulf of Aden, Bab-El-Mandeb Stait & the Red Sea by their missiles & Rockets. We should bear in mind that Bab-El-Mandeb Strait is nearly 30 km wide and is one of the most strategic routes in the world.
Once again, i repeat my previous statement: Yemen conflict would not be solved by military operation.


M. Sirani                          08.11.2017 

Petro-Yuan Means The Beginning of the End of U.S. Dollar Supremacy.

Brief:

China will introduce Petro-Yuan as early as the end of this year. This issue will undoubtedly hit the U.S. economy in various terms, forms & scales. In this respect, the U.S. stock market might highly likely be the first victim. The second victim might be U.S. based Cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin. These sectors have unrealistically expanded in the past couple of months.The bubble will explode sooner or later.

Note: We are on the verge of a huge development in economic & financial arena at global level; while today, President Trump asks Saudis to list Saudi Aramco on the New York Stock Exchange.
Saudi Arabia might choose Dual Listing. But the idea that Saudi Arabia put all its eggs in the basket of the USA (Only New York Stock Exchange) like before, is far from the reality. Because Saudis know time has changed; they know also that many other factors around the world have changed. In addition, we should bear in mind that China might force Saudi Arabia to trade the oil with Petro-Yuan. Should this happen, the U.S. economy will suffer a lot.

We are in fact, in the transitional phase of rise & fall of empires. 


M. Sirani                     04.11.2017

Yemeni's Defense Ministry states that "attack was conducted using a Yemeni-made long-range ballistic missile called the Burqan 2H".

Briefly:

If this claim is true, it means a lot. It means a major shift in the balance of power & a breakthrough in Yemeni conflict. This development is a serious game changer, if this claim is true. 


M. Sirani                 04.11.2017                   

Those GENIUSES, Who Thought I Was Joking in 2011, Are Now in 2017, Confused How to Deal With Yemeni Quagmire (I Refresh Your Memories).

For refreshing your memories, i suggest to read the following essay one more time with more precision & caution.

Essay: Iran should not get the nuclear bomb.

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.no/2014/11/iran-should-not-get-nuclear-bomb.html



M. Sirani                    04.11.2017 

China Unveiled Its Magic Island-Maker (Long Term Plan).

Briefly:

As Russia Today news agency (RT) claims the vessel can "smash underwater rocks and then suck out sand, water, and mud, and transfer the substance up to 15 kilometers away. It can dredge up to 6,000 cubic meters (around two and half Olympic swimming pools) an hour from a depth of up to 35 meters"(Rt, 2017).

This vessel is a revolutionary monster & along with Floating Nuclear Power Plant constructed by China (And Russia as well), show that China has a very long term plan in many fronts including building various artificial islands across the globe. We should not be Einstein to predict some of the consequences & overall side effects of this move in different terms, forms & scales in the future.


M. Sirani                    04.11.2017

Reference: Magic Island-Maker (2017) in: https://www.rt.com/news/408794-island-maker-dredger-china/

Does China Want to Build A Naval Base in Rakhine or A New Artificial Island Close to Rakhine Province in Myanmar At the Cost of 1 Million Innocent Rohingya people?

Briefly:

I don't have access to comprehensive & sensitive data. But my logic tells me that expelling couple of hundreds thousands Rohingya people in a very short period of time is a very big responsibility for every state including Myanmar. Myanmar authority has taken the chance to ruin its reputation in exchange for a very big & juicy project. This might be one of the main reasons of this horrific humanitarian disaster, as Chinese UN envoy invites the international community to be patient with regard to the horrific case of nearly 1 million displaced Rohingya people.




M. Sirani                          3.11.2017

Warning: Petro-Yuan will Enter the Global Market As Early As End of This Year. This Even Might Highly Likely Hit the U.S. Stock Market.The Bubble Has Expanded Unrealistically in the Past Couple of Months & Weeks.

Bitcoin & some other U.S. based financial entities will be highly likely hit by this event.


M. Sirani                    28.10.2017

The Reflection of Thucydides's Peloponnesian War in Current Iraqi Kurdistan.

Briefly:

Kurdish authority has told Iraqi GOV that it is freezing the referendum & independence movement & is ready to negotiate with Baghdad. In response to this call, H. Al- Ebadi in Tehran has said that the Kurds should totally cancel referendum & independence and comply with country's constitution.

The demand of H. Al-Ebadi has put Barzani in a very difficult position with only two limited options as follows.

Option A- Barzani  accepts Ebadi's demand & fully retreat. By this move, Barzani will commit political suicide and will ruin its reputation among all Kurds.

Option B: Barzani rejects Ebadi's demand & continues with his demand for Kurdistan. By choosing this move, Kurdistan will face a total war from every angles.

The whole this event is similar to some part of Peloponnesian War of Thucydides. ",,,, Obey our demand or face a devastating defeat,,,,," or in Qasem Soleimani's words to PUK leadership:

“Withdraw or risk losing Tehran as a strategic ally. Abadi has all the regional powers and the West behind him and nothing will stop him from forcing you to return back to the mountains if he decides so,”. 


Note: The chance that Barzani will remain in Iraq is very low. Iran & Iraqi GOV will not let him to have a pleasant future In Iraq. He might flee to Israel or one of the western countries for the rest of his life. Wrong move at wrong time at wrong place. 


M. Sirani                            26.10.2017 

The Primary Goals of Iran & Iraqi Gov in Kurdistan.

Briefly: By a single miscalculated move, Barzani destroyed what the Kurds had achieved throughout some decades struggle. There is some probability that Barzani would flee to either Israel or one of the western countries. Iran & Iraqi Gov would no let him to have a pleasant future in Iraq. 

It seems Iraqi Gov & Iran are currently pursuing three goals in Iraqi Kurdistan. These goals are:

A- Removing Barzani from the power & replacing him with a trustworthy person. In this respect, Talibani's son has a good chance.

B- Paralyzing economic Independence of Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraqi Gov & Iran would try to recapture the control of all oil & gas fields in Kurdistan & put an end to couple of years dispute between Iraqi central government and Kurdish authority.

C- Recapturing the border lines between Iraqi Kurdistan & Syria- Turkey in order to:  A- impose an idea that Iraqi Kurdistan is located within Iraq; it is an inseparable part of Iraq territory & B- Have full control about import & export to & from Kurdistan.

This policy would be applied to Kurdistan area in Syria as well; maybe not now, but it will be. In this respect, the four states of Iran, Iraq, Syria & Turkey would coordinate & cooperate with each other perfectly.

Note: The U.S. plan that Syrian Kurds would capture oil field in Syria; using its income; consequently weakening Assad's regime; etc etc, will hit the wall.

As i have repeatedly said this before: The U.S. plan to create a semi-federalism political system in Syria (Kurds in North, Shiite people in the Middle along with Assad's supporters & Sunnis in the South/ Weakening Assad's regime/ Creating safe/buffer-zone in the South of Syria for Israel, etc etc-  Kissinger's proposal) does not work in Syria based on many reasons. In addition, Iran would not allow such a plan would be implemented.



M. Sirani              26.10.2017

Warning: The U.S. Republican Party Is In A Very Critical Position.

Briefly:

I was among those few people, who predicted a Republican would be the president (in 2014-2015) and anticipated that D. Trump would become the president (2016) (Various short notes in this blog confirm my statement in this regard).

Based on what i have observed about Trump administration, the policies and the attitude of president Trump himself in the past 10 months, i can argue that the Republican Party is in a very critical position and is left with two options as follows.

A- Following Trump administration's statements & policies with closed eyes without any objection: In this way, the Republican Party would ruin its reputation and would damage the USA in different terms.

B- Standing up against wrong policies & statements of president Trump & his administration: By choosing this option, the Republican Party might be able to save the USA & the Republican Party in different terms.


Note: The biggest problem of president Trump: This is a fact that D. Trump is not an expert in many issues for example International Relations or Micro-Macroeconomics like many other presidents or prime ministers around the world. I don't blame him in this regard. He is expert in another area, which i'm not. The point is that most of the leaders around the world pay attention to their advisers in many areas. But president Trump not. He wants to run the united State & the rest of the world in a way that he was running his business empire. This is a very dangerous trend. This issue would highly likely cause a huge problem at domestic as well as foreign affairs not only for the USA and American people but also for the rest of the world. Due to the fact that the USA is a super power and every move of the USA would impact the remote areas around the world.

President Trump should understand this basic fact: Running a state and running a business empire have many similarities; at the same time there are huge differences between these two concepts. A single mistake in this regard would be catastrophic for many.  I have posted the following note multiple times for President Trump on Twitter:
"Running a state is not like running a business empire. They have some similarities. But they have huge differences). 




M. Sirani         24.10.2017

The Kurdish Referendum In Iraq Means the Starting Point For a Long Term Multidimensional Conflicts in Iraq & Probably in Syria As Well.

Briefly:

This event will unify the four political systems in Iran, Iraq, Syria & Turkey against all Kurds in the region. In other words, someone like President Erdogan will shake hand to his former enemy Bashar Assad to crush the Kurds. This event might highly likely force Turkey to deploy more troops to Iraq & Syria; a type of military invasion, depends on the scale of tension; if it is needed. This event, in addition, will empower the position of Iran & Russia and on the contrary will weaken the position of NATO in the region. Simply, because it will increase the level of cooperation between Turkey and the East.


Note: Iraq & probably Syria will highly likely become clear examples of  "Hobbesian Society: The war of all against all"; a multidimensional conflict. 

M. Sirani             21.09.2017

Warning: Like A Black Hole, A Military Confrontation With North Korea Will Suck Many Countries Into the Conflict.

Briefly:

By this, i mean in addition to the USA, South Korea, Japan & North Korea, many other countries will undoubtedly & inevitably involve in such a conflict. If we evaluate various aspects of this conflict, we will come to the conclusion that there are many similar factors between the First World War & a possible war with North Korea.


M. Sirani           18.09.2017 

M. Saakashvili Entered Ukraine. Is This A Starting Point For A Coup Or Beginning A New Civil War in the Western Part of Ukraine?

Briefly:

This is a fact that without some external & internal supporters, M. Saakashvili couldn't & didn't go to Ukraine. Whether this is a temporary event like an attempt for coup to remove P. Poroshenko from the power or a starting point of a long term event like a new civil war in the Western part of Ukraine are hard to predict at this stage. But there is something clear and that is that Ukraine will highly likely experience a series of internal chaos & instability in the next coming days, weeks & possibly months. The emergence of such an event along with today's event indicate a simple fact that current political system in Ukraine has a very shaky & vulnerable foundation. To put it simply, the political system in Ukraine needs some fundamental & constructive reform & adjustment. Otherwise, the instability & chaos in Ukraine will hit the EU & NATO in various terms, forms & scales based on numerous reasons in the future.


Note: I can guess, who is/are the possible external actor/s and what they possibly are pursuing in this attempt. But i don't have any credible & reliable evidence to underpin my argument in this regard. I leave this issue aside. Because, I don't like my short note would be labeled with "Conspiracy Theory".   


M. Sirani                         10.09.2017

Warning: A Military Confrontation With North Korea:

Briefly:

When a political system is unable to deal with some challenges at home, a war with a foreign adversary would become a tasty option & scapegoat.
I warn you about any military confrontation with North Korea. Such an event will be the most horrific, devastating & destructive historical event since the Second World War in every possible terms for many countries around the world including the USA.
In case of such an event the USA might militarily win the war. But the overall negative consequences of such a war will deeply damage the USA in many fronts. Among the consequences of such a war three events are inevitable.

A- Due to massive destruction & collateral damages, the ordinary people in South Korea & Japan will undoubtedly force their political systems to shut down all U.S. bases and demand the total withdrawal of U.S. troops from their countries.

B- Following this horrific event, Japan and South Korea will develop their own nuclear weapons.

C- The U.S. global supremacy, which has been built based on some victories in the Second World War & Cold War era will be badly crushed for ever following this war. This simply means the beginning of the end of supremacy & domination of the USA in many fronts at regional & global level.

In short, the occurrence of such a disastrous war, many issues around the world at global and regional level will change in an extreme and sudden manner. Most of these changes will not be pleasant for USA & some of its close allies. To put it simply, we will enter a totally new era in many fronts.


Note: What i explored above is just a scratch about this event. The overall negative consequences of such an event in different terms at regional and global level are much deeper & broader. 


M. Sirani                      05.09.2017 

The Case of Rohingya People in Myanmar is A Clear Genocide. Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize Committee Should Immediately Revoke The Nobel Peace Prize of Aung San Suu Kyi Before More Scandal Would Happen.

Aung San Suu Kyi the Mrs. Multiple Ministers Exploited Your Resources, Got Her Nobel Peace Prize and Now She is Showing You Her Middle Finger (The Case of Rohingya People Is a Clear Genocide; Stop Your Puppet ASP).

President Trump's New Strategy For Afghanistan: Following the Same Path of Previous Administrations With Some Different Military Tactics & Oral Statement. The Result Will Be The Same.

The Chance that President Trump Will Allow Iran Reach the Untouchable Position of North Korea in Terms of Nuclear Weapon & Ballistic Missile Program, is Very Low. In This Respect, the JCPOA is A Primary and Important Barrier.

The U.S. Special Forces in Libya (Another Quagmire, due to the Fact that the USA Does Not Have a Clear, Effective & Coherent Strategy With Regards to Many Issues in the Region).

How The Current Tension With North Korea Might Change The Reaction of Trump Administration With Regards to Iran & The JCPOA? (A Possibly Dangerous Situation).

Briefly: (This short note has been written in 15 min without editing, etc etc).

This is a fact that the recent nuclear and ballistic missile activities along with planning to launch some missile toward Guam (A U.S. Territory) by North Korea have put the Trump administration in a very critical position. According to some analysis, North Korea has so far obtained between 50-60 nuclear bombs and its recent activities show that the country has had a rapid progress on its ballistic missile program as well. To put it simply, North Korea has achieved a capability to hit many places in the USA by its nuclear-ballistic missiles. This issue has put the USA in a very critical situation. The Trump administration cannot simply ignore the recent activities and the threat of North Korea. At the same time, trying to solve this complicated issue through a type of preemptive strike could be costly in different terms not only for the USA and North Korea, but also for some other countries in the South East Asia due to the nuclear & ballistic missile capability of both the USA & North Korea.

Whether the USA & North Korea would ease the tension and solve this conflict through diplomacy or the rhetoric wars between Washington & Pyongyang would end up into a devastating military confrontation are beyond the scope of this short writing. But this tension would lead us to another important issue and that is the JCPOA; the nuclear deal with Iran.

As we all know, whether during the presidential race or his presidency, Donald. Trump has repeatedly mentioned that the JCPOA is the worst deal ever that the USA has made. In addition, President Trump has stated in many occasions that he would like to tear up the deal. The recent tension with North Korea and its complicated details, would undoubtedly put the Trump administration in another complicated position. The Trump administration would highly likely try to have a simple comparison between current North Korea and Iran. The administration might highly likely come to the following conclusions:
North Korea has nuclear bomb & ballistic missiles. Military strike against North Korea is dangerous, costly and cannot fundamentally change anything with regards to nuclear & ballistic missile capability of North Korea. North Korea has passed the red line for ever in this respect.

But, what about Iran? Apparently Iran has not obtained nuclear bomb yet. In addition, the ballistic missile program of Iran has not progressed as North Korean to cause a serious threat for the USA. But, if the time passes, Iran might highly likely pass the red line the same as North Korea after couple months or years. In such a hypothetical scenario, the USA cannot curb or counter Iran.
Based on this calculation, the Trump administration might highly likely tear up the JCPOA or launch a preemptive strike against Iran to prevent the country to reach the untouchable position of North Korea.

In short, the current tension with North Korea would undoubtedly impact the JCPOA and the policy of the Trump administration toward Iran in the near future.

M. Sirani                                11.08.2017
  

North Korea Has Threatened to Launch Military Strike Against Guam (The USA). Why NATO Does Not react Through a Short Statement???!!!

Briefly:

It seems some enjoy to see Trump administration is under pressure.


M. Sirani                   10.08.2017

The USA Has "One Last Option" to Solve the Problem With North Korea, Before Any Military Confrontation (I'm Not Sure Whether Trump Administration is Aware of That or Not).

Developing A New Grand Strategy For Asia & South East Asia Is A Necessary Move For the USA.

Briefly:

The USA has moved in a totally wrong direction in many areas since 1990. Otherwise, the country could have had a much better and stronger position at global level. In this respect, i have to admit that some ideas of both H. Kissinger & Z. Brzezinski have played an important role in this matter.  Cleaning up these messes, however, at this stage is not an easy task; but it is not impossible.

At the present time, the USA should develop a totally new Grand Strategy, which includes and covers some important issues such as A- The rise of China and its expansionist behavior in different terms, B- North Korea & its nuclear-ballistic missile activities, C- The rise & activities of various radical Islamic groups, and D- Curbing & countering drug cartels & drug trafficking.


Note: With some reactionary moves, you cannot deal with these critical issues in Asia. 

M. Sirani           09.08.2017                  

Merit-Based Immigration System Does Not Function in the USA (This is A Clear "Mirror Imaging" & Wrong Copy & Paste From Canada & Australia).

Briefly:

Merit-Based immigration system has functioned for some countries like Canada & Australia since some decades ago. But this system does not function in the USA based on numerous reasons. This is a clear Mirror Imaging and the USA will suffer a lot in different terms in the next couple of years following the implementation of this policy.

Note: This example shows some weaknesses in terms of planning, policy analysis, policy implementation and risk management within Trump administration.


M. Sirani                   03.08.2017

Just Remember This: Anytime the Trump Administration Takes A Tough Stand or Decides to Impose Any Sanction on Iran, Something "Bad" Would Happen to Either Karoobi or Mousavi or Rouhani (Good Cop-Bad Cop Policy).

Briefly:

Anytime the Trump Administration Takes A Tough Stand or Decides to Impose Any Sanction on Iran, Something "Bad" Would Happen to Either Karoobi, Mousavi, Rouhani or some other so-called "Reformist Figures" (Good Cop). Since couple days ago, we understood that the Senate has approved a series of sanctions against Iran, Russia & North Korea. Let see what has happened in Iran. Just a few examples:

1- Mr. Freydoon the brother of president Rouhani was arrested and was in jail for one night.
2- M. Karrobi was hospitalized due to probably hearth problem.
3- Today, the children of M. H. Mousavi state that the health condition of their father has been deteriorated since last night.

 The combination of these external and internal events show one thing: Good Cop & Bad Cop policy of Iranian Regime and the naivety of some western politicians and pundits, who after nearly 40 years would be misleading by the Iranian Regime again & again by the same good cop & bad cop policy.


M. Sirani                        02.08.2017 

RE Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Activities of North Korea (I Have Developed A Plan, Which Might Solve This Problem).

Briefly:

The USA and its allies can continue with a type of Cat & Mouse Game (Imposing sanctions, isolating, etc) with North Korea. But these policies, no matter how harsh, cannot curb, counter or stop the nuclear & ballistic missile activities of North Korea. This is a fact. In addition, the chance that both China & North Korea would accept  the recent Kissinger's proposal in this regard is very low or i might say nearly impossible.

In this regard, i have developed a plan, which might put an end to nuclear & ballistic missile activities of North Korea.



M. Sirani                 01.08.2017

Designating IRGC As A Terrorist Organization?

Briefly:

Personally, i believe this is a move, which the USA and its close allies should have done it long time ago.

BUT, due to the fact that The USA, some powerful states within the EU along with some powerful Arab states do not have a clear, effective and coherent strategy with regards to the Iranian regime and many other issues in the Middle East, i can say that such a move not only would not counter and curb the Iranian regime in an effective and powerful manner, but also it would create additional tension and conflict across the region. To put it simply, the negative consequences of such a move would be more than its benefit for the USA & its allies in the region at the present time.


Note: Without a clear strategy & a short and long term plan, you cannot cause any harm to the Iranian regime by such reactionary moves. 38 or 39 years ago, you could; but now now.  



M. Sirani                          17.07.2017

China's First Overseas Military Base in Djibouti. This is Just the Beginning.

Briefly:

The plan for this military base started in 2015 and as the media claim, China is deploying its troops to Djibouti now. Military base of China in Djibouti would empower the Geo-Political position of China, Russia and Iran with regards to many events & areas in the Middle East and some part of Africa.This is the first overseas military base of China, but it would not be the last one. In the next couple of years, we will highly likely witness more Chinese military base alongside the Belt & Road Initiative of China.

Note: When it comes to the Soft Power & Economic expansion, China has nearly reached its peak. Now is the time for military expansion to preserve the Soft Power & Economic achievements.
I have said this before and say it again: If many factors remain the same as they are today, in the next couple of years, we will experience a bipolar world; wherein the world will be divided into two camps of A-China (And its close allies) and B-Germany (And its close allies). In such a hypothetical scenario, China and Germany will surpass & bypass the USA & UK in different terms & scales. Such an issue has already been imposed on the UK following the Brexit.


M. Sirani                           12.07.2017

The U.S. Market Will Meltdown Further From Tomorrow (This G20 Summit Will Not Be A Pleasant Event for the USA & UK).

Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Programs of North Korea.

Briefly:
 I wish the current U.S.  decision makers & high ranking politicians understand a fact that: the world has changed.

Without an effective & clear strategy with regards to Russia (And tension in Ukraine), China & many issues in the Middle East (for example Syria, Iran) the USA cannot achieve an effective, fundamental & sustainable solution with regard to North Korea.


Note: The USA needs some fundamental changes (in some areas) and adjustment (in some) in its foreign policy. 



M. Sirani                     05.07.2017 

The END of ISIS in Iraq & Syria Means the Beginning of the Real Conflict in These Two States & Maybe Beyond.

Upcoming G20 Summit in Hamburg (2017) Will Not Be A Pleasant Event for the USA. The Result of This Summit Will Impact the U.S. Economy.

Unless Trump administration would change & adjust some of its policies and method of implementation of its policies (Which personally, i don't think it would happen):


M. Sirani                      01.07.2017

GOP Healthcare Bill (The USA); A Big Mistake.

Briefly:

As it appears, the U.S. Republican Party has not been able to introduce a more comprehensive and better health care bill than Obamacare after nearly 8 years. However, if some rumors, which say GOP Health care bill will cut the medicaid and health care for couple of millions low income American people in the next coming years, are true, i can give you 1000% guarantee that D. Trump will not win the second presidential race in 2020.


M. Sirani                          01.07.2017   

Federalism For Syria Means An Endless Conflict (The Era that Two Person Like Sykes & Picot Sit Somewhere and With the Help of A Ruler Divide the Middle East is OVER; WAKE UP).

Briefly:

As it appears the USA and some of U.S. allies are trying to establish some type of Federal political system in Syria. Creating a safe zone in Northern part of Syria for Kurds and recent training & supporting the Syrian rebels in the South (Syrian border with Jordan) could be understood in this respect. By these moves, as it appears the USA would try to establish a type of Federal political system consisted of three parts in Syria.

1- The Northern part under the command of the Syrian Kurds,

2- The Middle part under the command of Bashar Assad, which includes Shitte, Alawites and Assad's supporters.

3- The Southern part under the command of Sunni people & mainly for Sunni people.

By implementing this plan, the USA would mainly try to:

A- Weaken the central government of Bashar Assad.

B- Reduce the influence of Russia & Iran in Syria.

C- Accordingly weakening the position of Hezbollah in Syria and to some extent in Lebanon, and

D- Create a so-called safe zone for Israel in the Southern part of Syria.  

If my assumption in this regard is correct, Trump administration is trying to pursue H. Kissinger's proposal as a solution for Syrian civil war. Those, who are interested in this concept, can read Kissinger's proposal in his article entitled "A path Out of the Middle East Collapse" published on 16.10.2015. However,
based on many reasons and theoretical concepts such as Hobbsian "Formation of State-Government" and Habermasian "Communicative Rationality" i can clearly say that the idea of Federalism for Syria is just a joke; does not function in Syria; it cannot create peace and stability in Syria. On the contrary, this plan, in case of fully implementation, not only would create an endless civil war within Syria but also intensify the tension between Iraqi central government & Iraqi Kurdistan and accordingly would force Turkey to perform some military action against Kurds in both Iraq & Syria. This plan, in addition, would jeopardize the safety & security of Israel in the long term.

However, if some actors are interested to weaken the central government (Assad's regime) and accordingly create an endless civil war & conflict within Syria in order to achieve & preserve some economic & Geo-Strategic interests in the long term, the idea of Federalism in Syria is a perfect proposal. Current disastrous political system in Iraq and continuous tension between Iraqi central government and semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan confirms my explanation in this regard to some extent.

 M. Sirani                               29.06.2017 

The Emergence of A New Bipolar World in the Next 10-15 Years; Germany & China Will Surpass & Sideline the USA.

Briefly:

If many factors remain as they are today, we will highly likely observe a bipolar world in the next 10-15 years (more or less), wherein the world will be divided into two camps of A-China and its close allies, B- the EU (mainly Germany and its close allies). In such a hypothetical scenario, these two major powers (Camps) will surpass & sideline the USA & UK in many areas.

Note: Many factors & actors have sidelined the UK already. In this respect, the USA also is not in a very good shape, based on what i have observed in the last 5 months presidency of Mr. Trump. My prediction in this regard will highly likely come true; unless some major changes will happen in the USA or the EU or China, for example a major shift in foreign policy of the USA or collapse of the EU & EURO or a real revolution in China.



M. Sirani                      27.06.2017 

The USA Threatens Syria, Says: Assad is Planing Chemical Weapon Attack (Warning: Don't Think About Broad Military Intervention in Syria).

Briefly:

I have repeatedly said this before and say it again:
Any military intervention in Syria would be devastating for the USA and its regional allies due to many reasons including the fact that the U.S. , EU and Arab states do not have clear & coherent strategies with regards to many events in the Middle East & Africa.


M. Sirani                        27.05.2017

Making An Israel-Palestine Peace Deal is Not Like Buying or Selling An Skyscraper In Manhattan. Such An Important Task Requires Real Expertise; Real Qualification.

Briefly:

There are many, many, many differences between the art of the deal in selling & buying apartment-skyscraper and International Relations-International Politics. If these two subjects were the same every real state expert could have become a Minister of Foreign Affairs.

I think my short message is Chrystal clear.


M. Sirani                     26.06.2017

Nobody Takes Your Empty Words Seriously.

Briefly:

As long as you don't have clear, reliable and coherent strategies with regards to many events in the Middle East:

A- The Iranian Regime beats the hell out of all of you in the region and later in Africa;
B- Various types of Radical Islamic Groups will come and go;
C- Nobody takes your empty words seriously.


M. Sirani              25.06.2017

Opening The "Liberal Mosques" in Germany & Norway Reminds Me To One of The Statements of A. Einstein.

Briefly:

Those Muslims or Non-Muslims, who have designed the trend of "Liberal Mosque" doesn't have a clue about:

A- Islam

B- Historical Background of Islam

C- Historical Background of Christianity, reforms in Christianity and various types of factors, which the combination of all of them forced some parts of the Christianity to accept the reforms.

Based on brief explanation noted above, i will anticipate with high probability that the fabricated trend of so-called "Liberal Mosque" does not solve anything at all with regards to emergence and rise of various Radical Islamic Terrorist Group or Islamic Terrorism Activity neither in the Western countries, nor in the Middle East, nor in Asia or Africa. This fabricated trend, on the contrary, will backfire & provoke many Muslims around the world; and accordingly will cause many additional tensions and conflicts.


Note: A. Einstein once said: "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity" (This is the only thing i can say further with regard to development of the so-called "Liberal Mosque"). These geniuses have deliberately created some clear Terror Target for various Islamic Terrorists by their own hands.   



M. Sirani                                  21.06.2017 

A Sustainable Israeli & Palestinian Peace Deal; Sweet Dreams.

Briefly:

As long as the USA, the powerful EU states and Arab countries do not have clear, effective & coherent strategies with regards to many events including A- Iran, B- Political Islam, C- Emergence and rise of various radical Islamic Terrorist groups in Asia, The Middle East and Africa, the idea of a sustainable & long term peace deal between Israel and Palestine is just a joke. Those novice hotshots should firstly work on a solid foundation, then start to build a skyscraper on the top of it.

Note: Israeli politicians should be insane to fall in such a trap. In addition, as long as you are confused, the Iranian regime is the main winner in the Middle East & later in Africa. 


M. Sirani                         21.06.2017          

Any Military Intervention in Syria

Briefly:
Any military intervention in Syria will end up in

A- Total destruction of Syria, collateral damages & influx of refugees.

B- Broad war & proxy wars in multiple battlefields across the Middle East & possibly beyond the Middle East (E.g Ukraine).

In such a hypothetical scenario, the USA & its allies will lose based on many reasons including the fact that current U.S. administration does not have a clear strategy with regards to the Iranian regime and many other ongoing events in the Middle East. Thus, avoid adventurous & miscalculated move in Syria.


M. Sirani                    20.06.2017  

Be Prepared for More Intensified Tension in Syria & Most Parts of the Middle East in The Next Coming Months & Probably Years.

Briefly:

Due to the fact that the USA does not have some clear & effective strategies with regards to many events in the Middle East, we should highly likely expect intensification of tension in various parts of the Middle East in the next coming months & probably years.


M. Sirani         18.06.2017

When The Entire World Has Become A Ridiculous Circus======> 2017 Nobel Peace Prize For J. Kerry & J. Zarif For The Useless JCPOA.

What a joke.


M. Sirani                14.06.2017

When It Comes to the Threat of Radical Islamic Terrorism in both Short & Long Terms, All Western Countries (The EU+The USA Without Any Exception) Are in a Very Deep Shit.

Briefly:

All the western countries are plunging in a very deep serious shit in the short & long term, when it comes to the threat of Radical Islamic Terrorism; due to the lack of an effective and robust strategy.

Note: The citizens of all western countries will suffer a lot in this matter in both short & long term thanks to their incompetent & corrupt politicians and pundits.

M. Sirani                                24.05.2017

Warning: Islamic Terrorist Activities Have Entered Into A More Dangerous & Critical New Phase of "Suicide Bombing" Within The Western Countries.

Briefly:

Needless to explore the scale & scope of threat in this new development, thanks to bunch of corrupt & incompetent kids, who play the role of high ranking politicians & decision makers.


M. Sirani    23.05.2017 

Those Incompetent & Corrupt Kids (Some Politicians+ Pundits), Who Have Led US Into This Disaster, Want to Convince Us About War on Terror (Forget The War on Terror; Resign & Get Lost).

Bunch of incompetent and corrupt kids, who do not have the credible qualification to run a dog, but have occupied various high ranking political positions. All of them should Resign & get lost.


M. Sirani                   23.05.2017

The Tragic Terrorist Attack in Manchester: Bunch of Corrupt Kids, Who Call Themselves "Politicians or Think Tanks (Ding Dang) Should Read My Prediction in 2013.

Here below is part of my essay entitled: An assessment about the current civil war in Syria. This essay was written on August, 2013. Some viewers might be interested to go through some of my predictions in that time about the consequences of the Syrian civil war; some predictions that we are dealing with them currently in Iraq, Syria itself, Lebanon and lone wolf attacks in the western countries, etc. 



M. Sirani                        01.11.2014

7- Some Consequences of the Syrian Civil War:

Whether we are supporting Bashar Assad or its opponents or are neutral, we should pay attention to some of the consequences of the Syrian civil war. Analyzing these consequences is very important, because some of them might occur beyond the Syrian geographical territory within the country that we live in. Some of these consequences are briefly as follows.

1- The first and important issue is the large number of human casualties and near-total destruction of the country’s infrastructure. We should not be genius to anticipate that this issue would be devastating for Syria, the Syrian people and the neighboring countries for some decades to come.

2- The second issue is about the overall effect of the civil war on the life of the Syrian people. This issue has caused that more than 1.6 million people have fled Syria and taken refuge abroad in some countries such as Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and some North African countries. We should bear in mind that we are talking about more than 500,000 Syrian refugees in a country such as Lebanon with a population size of 4.2 million, or nearly 500,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan with a population size of almost 6 million people, etc. The large numbers of the Syrian refugees are the huge burden on the shoulders of all these states, the international organizations as well as NGOs. In the long term, this issue would cause many problems in different arenas including security for all these countries. As an example, asylum seekers and refuges are the most vulnerable groups around the world; because, in most cases they don not have proper access to their basic needs and rights. As such, some members of this vulnerable group would become the easiest preys for different criminal organizations as well as Jihadist groups. This issue is also applicable for some of the Syrian refugees in the Middle East. Given the fact that most of these countries mentioned above do not have a powerful, stable and reliable political system and the Syrian civil war has entered in the new phase of a conflict between the Shiite and Sunni groups, we can anticipate that the presence of large numbers of the Syrian refugees would threaten the peace, stability and security of some countries in the Middle East in the long term.

There is also another important issue with regard to the Syrian refugees. What these refugees would do, if Assad’s regime would manage to survive this civil war? Given the fact that some of these refugees, themselves or their relatives are fighting against Assad’s regime, would they dare to return to Syria in the future? Who / which powerful international entity would be able to provide and maintain their security in Syria under the rule of Bashar Assad? On the contrary, if Assad’s regime would collapse somewhere in the future, who, or which powerful entity would be able to provide and maintain security for those Shiite or Alawites people, who have supported Bashar Assad or neutrally have behaved during this conflict?

3- The overall presence of Hezbollah in this conflict and increasing numbers of conflict between the Shiite and Sunni groups in different countries in the region illustrate the fact that eventually, the Syrian civil war would spread to some other neighboring countries in the Middle East. In this respect, the two countries of Lebanon and Iraq are the most vulnerable states.

4- The Syrian civil war has facilitated the best environment in terms of training, access to different facilities such as money, weapon, training and network building for all Jihadists around the world. This chaotic environment functions like an academic institute for all Islamic fundamentalists including novice Jihadists, who enter Syria legally or illegally from different borderlines. After a while, these novice Jihadists would be expert in different military tactics and strategic matters such as using different weapons - explosive materials, organizing, surviving in harsh and difficult circumstances, network building, etc. The important and tricky point is the time that these jihadists would decide to return to their countries of origin, whether is somewhere in the Middle East or the EU or some other countries around the world. In this respect, we can anticipate that each of these jihadists would function as an ambassador of terror and would be able to organize and establish a terror cell in his /her country of origin.

5- This is the fact that the Kurdish people has been one of the most marginalized and deprived groups in Syria. The Syrian Kurds live mostly in the northern part of Syria along the southern border of Turkey and partly the northern border of Iraq. During the chaotic atmosphere of the civil war, the Syrian Kurds might decide to establish an either autonomous or a Kurdish self-regulated region in the northern part of Syria. This issue would threaten the sovereignty of Syria, Turkey, and Iraq. As a result, it would create extra instability and tension in the region.

6- We should bear in mind that some of these consequences, inevitability, would also affect the Israeli–Palestinian peace process to some degree.

All mentioned above, indicates the fact that the consequences of the Syrian civil war from different angles and to some degrees would be devastating not just for the Syrian people or the country of Syria, but also for all of us, no matter whom we are or where we live.

M. Sirani                      August 2013

         

The Presidential Election in Iran: Rouhani or Raisi?

Briefly:

There is high probability that Rouhani will be elected for the second term. There is some small chance for Raisi. However, no matter, which one of these candidates would become the next president, we should bear in mind that:

A- Different evidences indicate the fact that Both Rouhani & Raisi have close ties with the Supreme Leader Khamenei.

B- As the special representatives of the Supreme Leader, both Rouhani & Raisi have been appointed by Ayatollah Khamenei for some important entities within the Islamic Regime.

C- In this presidential race, Rouhani has more chance to win. However, no matter, Rouhani or Raisi would win the election, the entire policies of the Islamic Regime whether at domestic or foreign affairs will remain the same as before.


M. Sirani                       19.05.2017

PM May Calls For Early Election=====>The UK is Not In a Good Shape.

Briefly:

Lack of proper qualification, knowledge and expertise. They have started with Brexit; but are confused what they should do from now on; or where they should go!!!!!!


Note: When some people do not have proper qualification, knowledge and expertise would become responsible for a big task,,,,,,, (One of the reasons for an empire to fall). 



M. Sirani             18.04.2017

The First Possible Consequences of Military Strike on Syria.

Briefly:

This apparently One Off military strike on Syria would have many consequences in short & long term beyond the geographical territory of Syria. One of the first possible consequences of this move might be the notion that both Iran & Russia would deploy more military troops and equipment into Syria probably in the next couple of hours & days.
The impact of such a move in terms of Syrian rebels is clear; needless to explore it.

Note: As i said in my previous short note, this One Off military strike will intensify the tension not only within Syria but also in some other areas across the Middle East or probably beyond.


M. Sirani                 07.04.2017

The USA Launched Military Strike on Syria. This Military Strike Would Intensify the Tension in Many Areas.

Briefly:

The USA launched Tomahawk Missile strike on Syrian airfield in retaliation to the recent chemical attack in Idlib area. This event raises three important questions as follows.

The Question 1- Did the Syrian air force drop chemical bomb in Idlib? This is a fact that Assad's regime has treated its opponents in a very cruel and inhuman manner in the last couple pf years. In this respect, the Syrian regime has used chemical weapon against its own people in various occasions in the past. But the idea that Assad's regime dropped chemical bomb (Sarin Gas) in Idlib is something hard to believe, based on many reasons mainly:

1-A: The first issue is the recent victories of the Syrian government. The Syrian government has achieved some magnificent victories in the past couple of months. Among these victories recapturing the city of Aleppo (The capital of Syrian rebels since 2012) could be mentioned. These series of victories indicate a fact that the Syrian regime has the upper hand in comparison with the Syrian rebels. From this we can assume that the Syrian regime has not been in a very critical position that would be forced to use chemical weapon in Idlib to save itself from the rebels.

2-A: The second issue which, might save the Syrian government from this allegation is the recent statements of some high ranking members of Trump administration. In the past couple of days, The United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and the Secretary of State Rex Tillerson both stated that the USA would not pursue "Assad Must Go" policy anymore; in order words the first & important priority for the USA is defeating and eradicating the ISIS; not changing the current Syrian government. These statements along with various statements of President Trump in the past were pleasant news for Bashar Assad in a way that Bashar Assad himself in some interview stated that he was ready to cooperate with president Trump in war against ISIS. Considering these positive statements, it is hard to believe that Assad's regime has used chemical weapon in Idlib; simply because the use of chemical weapon would have ruined all those positive statements of U.S. officials.

3-A- The third issue is the mentality of president Trump. Everybody, who have a little bit knowledge and have followed president Trump's statements and actions know one important thing that president Trump is a very serious person. He is not one of those politicians full of just empty words.

Based on brief details mentioned above, the chance that the Syrian forces have dropped chemical bomb in Idlib is very low, in my opinion.

The Question 2- Was this strike one time military strike or would continue?
Trump administration has stated that this military strike was a type of punishment with regard to the recent chemical attack in Idlib. From this we can assume that this might be a one time military operation. In this case, we face another question as follows.
Various groups and organizations in Syria including ISIS or Al-Nusrah front have access to various types of weapons and ammunition including chemical weapons due to 6 years civil war in the country. What would happen if in the next couple of days some of these groups e.g. ISIS launch a chemical mortar and target a Syrian rebel group? What would Trump administration do in such a hypothetical scenario? Would Trump administration launch another military strike against the Syrian government again? (To be honest, the recent military strike would pave the way towards such an operation in the future).

In short, This military strike does not change the Syrian civil war in a very effective and sustainable manner. This operation would on the contrary, pave the way for various groups to use this tactic and provoke the USA to perform more military strike against Assad's regime. Practicing such a tactic, if continues, would finally drag Trump administration into the Syrian civil war and direct military confrontation with Russia, Iran and China at the end of the road. Should this happen, we would witness a broad battlefield beyond the geographical territory of Syria & the Middle East. In such a hypothetical scenario we would observe many changes not only in the Middle East but also in Baltic area. Unfortunately, the results of these events would not be pleasant for neither the USA nor for Arab countries based on many reasons particularly the notion that as it appears the USA & its allies do not have a clear strategy with regards to many events in the Middle East.


Note: Trump administration could use this chemical attack event in a much better manner and get much better results. The lack of clear strategy would lead to disaster. 

M. Sirani                        07.05.2017

Wiretapping Trump Tower; A False Allegation Or A Factual & True Event?

Briefly:

When it comes to leaking the confidential information to the media outlets, both FBI & NSA directors claim that they cannot identify the main sources of the leaks in most cases. This simply means some within the Intelligence community leak the confidential data to the media without the knowledge of FBI or NSA directors.
If we accept that this is a true & honest claim, we can come to another logical & reasonable conclusion as follows: That some individual/s within the U.S. intelligence entities might have received an order from somewhere to do the wiretapping or spontaneously have decided to wiretap or intercept Trump Tower without the knowledge of for example the directors of FBI or NSA. In short, When some activity like leaking within the intelligence community would occur beyond the knowledge, power, authority and control of FBI or NSA directors, we can assume that some other activity like wiretapping or intercepting might also occur beyond the knowledge of FBI or NSA directors (This is a simple logical & factual calculation).   

In addition, we should not forget that the director Comey himself has stated recently that "there is no 100% privacy in the USA". Moreover, there is some evidences, which show that some U.S. Intelligence entity/ies has/have intercepted the phone conversation between General Flynn & Russia Ambassador in the USA.

Based on these evidences and many other ongoing events in the USA (Which mostly indicate the Rise of Neo-McCarthyism) we can conclude that there is high probability that some individual/s or entities have wiretapped or intercepted the Trump Tower during 2016 U.S. election.

To put it simply: If i was in the hearing today, i would have asked both FBI & NSA directors the following questions:

A- Who within the U.S. Intelligence community have leaked the confidential data to the media?
Both probably could have answered they don't know.

Then i could have asked the second crushing question as follows.
B- When you don't know who within your entities have leaked the info, how on earth would you say with high probability that no one within your entities has wiretapped or intercepted Trump Tower?
Give me a single logical reason to accept the reliability & credibility of your argument in this regard.



Note: As i have said it earlier: Defending the USA in different terms against any domestic as well as foreign enemy should be an important task for every U.S. citizen. But this issue should not be mixed or accompanied with an anomaly like McCarthyism. The rise of Neo-McCarthyism would extremely damage the liberal values and democratic institutions of the USA. This is a dangerous trend and should be stopped as soon as possible; before it's too late.  


M. Sirani                       20.03.2017 

Some Predictions About The Meeting Between President Trump and Chancellor Merkel.

Briefly some of my predictions following this meeting: (The EU would face a series of uncertainty & instability).

A- A series of economic uncertainty would hit the entire EU zone (Chancellor Merkel will return back to Germany with almost "An Empty Hand" from this meeting).

B- The chance that Angela Merkel would be re-elected again is very very very low.

C- The victory of M. Le Pen in France means the beginning of DEFINITE collapse of the EU.

The consequences of each issues mentioned above in different terms at national, regional and global level are clear.



Note: My predictions are based on A- The body language of both the president & Chancellor Merkel B- Some of their answers during the press conference.



M. Sirani               17.03.2017

China & Russia Are Building "Floating Nuclear Power Plants". Why? For What Reason? Where?

Briefly: Where will these floating nuclear plants be used?

My prediction:
China will use it for its artificial islands in the South East Asia; it seems China has a long term development and expansionist plan in this regard.

Russia will probably use it in the North somewhere in the Arctic, as far as i can anticipate up until this moment.

Due to the massive cost of such a project and the notion that both China & Russia at almost the same period of time have started to build such a floating plants, we can anticipate that this is a well-coordinated and calculated move between Russia & China and it shows that China & Russia have a long term plan in this regard. The only thing i can say is that this is an important development, which should neither be ignored nor underestimated.




M. Sirani                      14.03.2017

New Referendum In Scotland: This Time Scotland Will Highly Likely Separate From the UK Based On,,,

Briefly: In case of new referendum:

This time Scotland will highly likely separate from the UK based on many reasons mainly:

A- Powerful nationalism

B- Confusion in different terms within current UK government specially following the Brexit.

C- Enjoying some opportunities within the EU for Scotland & Scottish people.

D- The influence of the EU.

The combination of many factors particularly four factors mentioned above, would give more probability to the occurrence of such an event.


M. Sirani                 13.03.2017 

The EU Versus Turkey ( Wrong State, Wrong Time, Wrong Place/S, Wrong Tension ). Russia, China & Iran Should Thank the EU For This Mess.

Briefly:

Whether some like it or not, this is a fact; Turkey has currently the upper hands in many areas in comparison with the EU. The EU politicians should have A REALISTIC ANALYSIS from current situation and solve their problem with Turkey in a diplomatic manner. In case of escalation the tension, the EU would lose a lot much more than Turkey.

Note: Wrong State, Wrong Time, Wrong Place/S, Wrong Tension. 

Those geniuses in the EU should understand that by deportation of Turkey minister or preventing the rallies: 

A- They have created an unnecessary tension at this critical moment. 

B- They have increased the popularity of R. Erdogan and his government among Turkish people (The result of upcoming election in Turkey would confirm my statement in this regard; just watch).  

C- It should be added that Russia, Iran and China should deeply thank you for creating & intensifying this tension with Turkey at this critical moment. 



M. Sirani                  12.03.2017 

Just A Reminder: Some of My Earlier Predictions About Weak or Wrong Polices of Obama Administration-EU With Regard to Turkey.

Briefly:

Contrary to the claim of some historical-political Copier & Paster, who call themselves "Think Tank" or pundit, this tragic event would not start the Third World War. The assassination of the Russian ambassador along with some previous diplomatic disputes between Turkey and the EU - USA (e.g. EU membership, free-visa for Turkish citizens, F. Gulen, etc) have opened the new door of opportunities for Turkey with regards to Russia, Iran and at the end of the road for China as well.
Based on this brief, we can expect many changes with regards to many events in the Middle East, Central Asian countries and Syria as well. The first and important impact of this newly developed rapprochement is that Bashar Assad would remain in the power.


Note: Assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Turkey Does Not Mean the Beginning of the Third World War. On the Contrary, it Means The End of the Syrian Civil War Sooner Than some people Thought. R. Erdogan would highly likely trade Syria with other opportunities offered by Iran, Russia & China.
 And the winners are: Iran, Russia, Assad's Regime & China.
The losers are,,,,,,,,,,,, you guess this part. 

What will highly likely happen in the next coming months & years? With high probability In short:

A- Turkey would trade Syria in return to some beneficial deals in different terms with Russia, Iran & China

B- Turkey, Russia and Iran would agree to put an end to the Syrian civil war.

C- Turkey, Russia, Iran and Assad's regime would beat the hell out of ISIS in Syria & consequently in Iraq.

D- Pro-Turkey rebels would get amnesty to remain and live in Syria or move to Turkey.

E- China, Russia and Iran would expand their relations with Turkey as much as they can. In this respect, offering the Shanghai Treaty membership to Turkey could be mentioned. This means a historical crashing point for NATO. 

F- What would happen to 3 million refugees sheltered in Turkey? If the USA & EU would not cover the costs, Turkey would open its borders toward the EU. This means influx of millions of refugees toward the EU countries. 

G- The combination of these events indicate a fact and that is that the entire Middle East and Central Asian countries would experience some type of change/s in different terms.  

And many unpleasant events for the USA and the EU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.

*****All the predictions noted above (And many more other unpleasant events) would come true in the next coming months & years with HIGH PROBABILITY, if the USA & the EU would not fundamentally change their policies with regards to many events in the Middle East and Turkey.  

Honestly: The kindergarten policies of Obama administration, some previous U.S. administrations and some EU countries are the main causes of such a big development.


M. Sirani                 20.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous short notes in this regard. I repeat my statement again: Considering the chaotic & kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration, some EU countries and new developments in the region, Turkey should be naive, if it would give up Cyprus at the present time without taking SOME FAT ADVANTAGE/S FROM THE EU & USA.


M. Sirani               09.01.2017

Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).

Briefly:

I don't want to go through my previous short notes dated couple of months or years ago in this regard. I just re-upload some of my short notes- predictions since last week. Once again, i repeat my warning: If the USA and the EU would not solve their differences with Turkey in a diplomatic, logical and reasonable manner, there is high probability that Turkey would join the Shanghai Treaty or totally bandwagon to China-Russia somewhere in the near future. Such a move would change the balance of power profoundly. Needless to explore the winners & losers of such a move and its consequences in different terms.



M. Sirani                          04.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous warnings in this regard.

1- Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means 

Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.

2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.

3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.

4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (President Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).

Note: Whether we like it or not, President Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 

M. Sirani                24.11.2016

2- The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU. 

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries has caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank).  



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

3- Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency. 

Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

The Rebirth of New McCarthyism in the USA: Like A Cancerous Tumor, This Destructive Trend Would Destroy The Entire Liberal Values & Democratic Institutions in the USA, If It Would Not be Controlled By U.S. Authority ASP.

Briefly:

This destructive trend would spread into the EU; if it would not be stopped in the USA as soon as possible. This is a serious threat for basic liberal values mainly different types of freedom and global peace & stability.

Note for those, who their brains have remained frozen in the cold war era:
There are huge differences between defending your country from any domestic as well as foreign enemy in different terms and McCarthyism.


M. Sirani         02.03.2017  

Designating IRGC As A Terrorist Organization Means Occurrence of Many Unpredictable Events Across the Middle East.

Briefly:

Such a move would have many consequences in different terms. One of the side effects of such a move would be a broad proxy war between U.S. forces and the Iranian Regime forces and its affiliates across the entire Middle East, e.g. in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc. Such a move would forcefully change the balance of power in many areas across the Middle East.


Note: If the USA does not have a clear, effective & reliable strategy with regards to many events in the Middle East, for example how to eradicate radical Islamic Terrorism or how to deal with the civil wars in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and how to deal with the Iranian Regime, the designating IRGC as a terrorist organization would develop many backlashes and would become counterproductive at the end of the road. This is a very BIG MOVE. 


M. Sirani                13.02.2017  

A Direct Military Confrontation Between Iran And Trump Administration? There is Highly Likely, We Will Observe Such An Event Somewhere in the Future.

Briefly:

There is high probability that Iran and Trump administration will face a direct military confrontation somewhere in the future. Such a clash might happen somewhere in the Gulf of Aden, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, the Persian Gulf of the Strait of Hormuz. Whether this military confrontation starts in Yemen, or Syria or any other areas mentioned above is not important. The important point is the notion that the military conflict will highly likely spread to all areas mentioned above, if both or one side will not react in a smart and professional manner. One thing is clear to me and that is that there are tough days ahead of all of us in this regard.


M. Sirani                           08.02.2017

Dreaming About Unified Cyprus? Read Some of My Previous Short Notes in This Regard.

Here below are some of my previous short notes in this regard. I repeat my statement again: Considering the chaotic & kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration, some EU countries and new developments in the region, Turkey should be naive, if it would give up Cyprus at the present time without taking SOME FAT ADVANTAGE/S FROM THE EU & USA.


M. Sirani               09.01.2017

Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).

Briefly:

I don't want to go through my previous short notes dated couple of months or years ago in this regard. I just re-upload some of my short notes- predictions since last week. Once again, i repeat my warning: If the USA and the EU would not solve their differences with Turkey in a diplomatic, logical and reasonable manner, there is high probability that Turkey would join the Shanghai Treaty or totally bandwagon to China-Russia somewhere in the near future. Such a move would change the balance of power profoundly. Needless to explore the winners & losers of such a move and its consequences in different terms.



M. Sirani                          04.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous warnings in this regard.

1- Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means 

Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.

2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.

3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.

4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (President Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).

Note: Whether we like it or not, President Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 

M. Sirani                24.11.2016

2- The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU. 

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries has caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank).  



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

3- Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency. 

Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

As Long As the Tension Between Turkey and Obama Administration- Some EU Countries Has Not Been Solved, The Unification of Cyprus Would Highly Likely Remain A Dream.

Briefly:

Turkey is upset from chaotic & kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration & some EU countries. Thus the chance for a unified Cyprus is very low or i might say is nearly impossible in the near future.


M. Sirani                        09.01.2017

Obama Admin Ignored My Proposal in Jan, 2014. Putin Used it in Dec, 2016 And Established A Nationwide Ceasefire in Syria (KIDS Do Not Pay Attention).

Here below is a copy of my short note in this regard (Putin checkmates your from every angles; because you don't have enough knowledge & qualification; because you don't pay attention to a reasonable proposal from an outsider like me. Thus, You "Geniuses" deserve to be beaten).

M. Sirani                    07.01.2017

                  Bashar Asad's Latest Statement.

The United Nations and the Western countries are hoping that the coming Geneva II peace conference would pave the way towards a political transition in Syria. Different evidences, however, show that not all the internal and external actors involved in this conflict, have the same expectation and perception in this matter. Among these, Bashar Asad's recent statement could be mentioned. Last night, the Syrian State TV aired the latest Bashar Asad's statement with regards to Geneva II Peace Conference. In this TV program, Asad was quoted as telling that:

"if we wanted to give up, we would have done so at the very beginning. We are on guard for our country. This issue is not up for discussion"(Dailystar, 2014).

Another example is the Islamic Regime's statement in this matter. Iran has repeatedly claimed that it will not attend the peace conference with precondition, which defines that Asad should leave the power in Syria. From this, we can assume that Iran's puppet "Hezbollah" would reject this precondition and consequently the coming peace conference as well. Given the fact that the Syrian authority, Iran and Hezbollah are the key actors in this conflict and these actors are strongly rejecting the precondition imposed by the West, what would be the possible outcome of Geneva II peace conference?

This brief information shows that there is  A zero-sum game condition between the key actors involved in this conflict. As such, we cannot have high expectation from Geneva II conference. This, however, does not mean the end of the world. We can attend the peace conference and achieve some positive common goals, which would are beneficial to some degree for at least most of the actors that are involved in this conflict. One of these goals would be implementation of a temporarily truce as a first step (later sustainable) between Asad's Regime and the Syrian opposition in the country. If we manage to make a reliable deal in this matter, we would be able to reach the further positive goal in this conflict. This goal would be defeating and dismantling the Jihadist groups in the country by the common help and assistance of Asad's Regime and the Syrian opposition. Should this happen, we would be able to move further and progressively with regards to finding a fundamental solution for the Syrian conflict step by step. Because the situation in Syria has become more complicated. In such a complex environment at this stage, we cannot suddenly jump into the final goal in this conference as the Secretary of State John Kerry wishes. Once again, I repeat my statement: without implementing these two main and primary tasks, we reach nothing with regards to the Syrian conflict.




M. Sirani                                 19.01.2014



Reference:
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Jan-19/244518-assad-says-not-ready-to-give-up-power.ashx#axzz2qqe6gl9G