Sunday, May 10, 2015

Warning: EU New Plan For Military Attacks on Libyan Coasts to Stop Migrant Boats is Totally Wrong, Ineffective and Counterproductive.


The EU has designed a plan for military attacks on the trafficking networks in the Libyan Coasts in order to prevent the flux of migration. The plan will be discussed in the UN on Monday in order to secure a UN mandate in this matter. In case of approval, there is high probability that once again, NATO will be involved in this military mission.
This plan is totally wrong, ineffective and counterproductive based on the following reasons.

1- The EU and NATO should understand that their totally wrong and unjustified military intervention dragged Libya into the current disaster. This, however, does not mean that i'm defending the undemocratic government of Qaddafi. My point in this matter is to remind the EU policy makers that in every plan and policy, in addition to the short & long term benefit, they should think about the negative consequences and side effects of their plan.

2- All migrants that cross the Mediterranean Sea and enter to EU zone are not just Libyan citizens. There are millions migrants not only from Libya but also from other Middle Eastern and African countries that are waiting for a simple opportunity to reach the EU zone from every where they can.

3- This is a fact that the current failed state of Libya is a solid platform for the traffickers. But Libya is not the only platform in this matter. There are other active platforms, for example, in Turkey,  Greece, Malta, Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria. What would the EU & NATO do with these platforms? Would the EU & NATO forces want to expand their military mission to these platforms, in order to prevent the flux of migrants?!

4- The EU & NATO forces might be able to secure the Libyan coasts and consequently reduce the flux of migrant boats for a while. The questions is: How long would the EU & NATO forces be able to continue with this huge and costly military mission in the Libyan coasts? How many days, weeks, months?

5- What would the traffickers do, when they observe that the Libyan coasts are nearly insecure? Do these military missions entirely stop the traffickers in what they do or this military operation would encourage the traffickers to change their location to another safe platform/s? In such a case, what would the EU & NATO do?

6- What would the desperate migrants do, when they observe that the Libyan coasts are insecure for crossing? Do the migrants remain in their unsafe, insecure and dangerous countries of origin to die gradually due to this military operation or would they inevitably choose another platform for departure?

7- What about the collateral damages and total destruction (e.g. honest Libyan fishermen and their boats) as the inevitable results of these military operations? Who, which state or which entity will be responsible in this matter?

8- Assume the EU & NATO succeed in this mission (Which i strongly doubt about it), what about those desperate and in urgent need migrants that have left their countries in order to find a safe haven to live? What is the moral and ethical responsibility of the EU & NATO members in this matter?

9- It should be added that any military intervention on Libya (depends on the scale of intervention) would undoubtedly create and cause extra problem and instability in different terms not only in Libya but also for all the neighboring countries around Libya to some extent. In this respect, Egypt, Sudan, Tunisia, Chad and Niger, as the most vulnerable states, could be mentioned. Moreover, the military intervention in Libya would undoubtedly threaten the EU in terms of security and safety matters as well. The military intervention would inevitably provoke all the terrorist groups across the Middle East and Africa. As such, the move would consequently function as a driving force and a type of wake up call for all the hibernated lone wolves across the EU. To put it simply, by performing such a wrong military move, the EU & NATO members are putting the security and safety of their citizens at a severe risk. This is an important issue that the EU strategists & decision makers should carefully pay attention to it.

Important 10- If the EU would try to use the Chapter 7 UN Charter and perform a series of military intervention in the whole country of Libya, the result would be a huge and prolonged humanitarian disaster in various forms much worse than all issues mentioned above. Such a scenario, in addition, would cause a conflict between the EU and some of the Arab countries. Due to the fact that the EU would try to support a special group or groups of Libyan people through this military intervention on the one hand and some of the Arab countries would support other group/s of the Libyan on the other hand. To put it simply, the EU and some of the Arab countries would inter into a type of proxy war against each other in Libya; of course, in case of a broad military intervention in the whole country of Libya.    

And many other questions and complications in this regard.

Based on all explained above, i believe the new proposal of EU in this matter is totally wrong, ineffective and counterproductive.

Note: The EU proposal cannot prevent the flux of migrants, but the plan would achieve a certain goal; i'm pretty sure it does. The EU plan can establish a secure passage line for the ship tankers that transport the Libyan oil to the EU. By this move, the EU would try to decrease its dependency to the Russian oil. This would be the only achievement of the EU new plan under the name of "Saving Migrants Lives" and nothing else.

On Monday, the UN (Probably the Security Council) will discuss this plan. China would probably ignore this plan and does not use the veto power due to its neutrality and nonintervention policy. There is high probability that Federica Mogherini has discussed this issue with her counterpart during her recent visit to China and has received a type of green light from Beijing. Russia is another actor, which can veto this proposal within the UN Security Council. But it might not do it, because the country would try to ease the tension with the Western countries amid the current tension in Ukraine. Part of the reason, that Angela Merkel is visiting Russia today, might be understood in this respect. In sum, the EU plan might probably be approved and authorized within the UN Security Council and consequently a new disastrous chapter in the Libyan history would begin in the next coming days & weeks. This is the real face of our contemporary useless international institutions, laws and conventions.

Contrary to this ineffective and counterproductive plan, the UN can impose sanction on the Libyan oil. By using this leverage along with other necessary measures, for example freezing the Libyan assets, the international community can force the Libyan domestic actors to compromise and form an inclusive political system. This is not an easy task, but it is not an impossible mission as well. When it comes to Syria and some other conflictual areas such as Ukraine are still some solutions. But as it appears, the UN, the EU and the U.S. are not really eager to solve these problems in a very fundamental and professional manners.  The current policies of UN, EU and USA in these matters is similar to some doctors, who have visited a cancer patient and have decided to treat the patient with some paracetamol.    

M. Sirani                                       10.05.2015