Wednesday, May 27, 2015

My Predictions About the Current Tensions in the Middle East.

Briefly:

1- The Nuclear deal with Iran. The chance that the 5+1 would be able to reach a reliable agreement with Iran is very low. If the 5+1 would reach an agreement with Iran, the deal will not have any credibility and reliability due to the lack of transparency and cooperation of Iran with IAEA. To put it simply, Iran might sign the agreement, but the Islamic Regime will obtain its nuclear weapon secretly somewhere in the future; whether you like it or not.

2- The current tension in Yemen: The Saudi-led coalition cannot defeat Iran and its puppet i.e. the Houthis in Yemen by the military intervention. If the coalition would continue with this policy without any adjustment or compromise with Houthis, the civil war in Yemen will become a chaotic triangle civil war in the long term. A prolonged civil war between 1- Shiite Houthis, 2- Sunni group and 3- Al-Qaeda, ISIS and other terrorist groups. In the long term (depends on the period of civil war), some of Sunni groups will inevitably join the different terrorist groups in Yemen. One more issue to mention is that, if the tension in Yemen continues, the civil war will undoubtedly spillover into Saudi Arabia somewhere in the future.

3- The Syrian regime is totally Iran's puppet. the current Iraqi government is not an inclusive and is completely under the command of Iranian Regime. The basic side effects of these two issues are equivalent to the lack of democratic institutions and totally marginalization and deprivation of the large numbers of Sunni people. These desperate Sunni people have no other choice, unless joining ISIS, Al-Qaeda or some other terrorist groups in these two countries. Some rich Arab people would fuel this tension by offering large amount of money in this matter. As such, the civil war in both Iraq and Syria will continue like a cat and mouse game without any tangible or winning result for any actor that are involved in these countries.

4- If the international community would not be able to find some diplomatic solutions for these conflicts mentioned above as soon as possible, the scope of the tension from Iraq, Syria and Yemen will inevitably and intentionally spillover to other Arab countries in the region somewhere in the future. This is a huge mistake (i emphasize) if someone thinks that the tension will not spillover in some other countries, for example, Lebanon or Jordan because it has not happen in the last four years. Such a thinking is extremely and totally wrong; simply because the level of tension between the main actors in the region has arrived into a very critical stage. There is high probability that the situation is completely going out of the control of any state or international body.


M. Sirani                                27.05.2015