Those Experts At NUPI, NMBU & PRIO Answer the Following Question And Save Norway from Current Economic Crisis.

Briefly: Further falling the price of oil will undoubtedly threaten the regional & global economy & security particularly at the present time that we are experiencing a type of economic downturn at global level. Adding some other factors such as exporting Iran's oil (falling the price of oil), sanctions imposed on Russia (reducing the economic growth), increasing number of tensions in the Middle East & Africa, etc will inevitably threaten the global economy & security. There is "SO FAR" only one reliable and achievable solution, which can prevent such disasters in many weak & vulnerable states around the world and at the same time ease the tension in the whole Middle East to some extent.  

Question:

The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. We should bear in mind that finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do specially at this critical juncture based on some reasons particularly: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

The Questions:

1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.

2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere. 

Note: H. Kissinger might have the answer; because i have seen some signs in his recent articles. 

M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015

Warning: Prevent A New Economic Crisis & Instability in Many Areas in the Next Coming Months.

Briefly: Further falling the price of oil will undoubtedly threaten the regional & global economy & security particularly at the present time that we are experiencing a type of economic downturn at global level. Adding some other factors such as exporting Iran's oil (falling the price of oil), sanctions imposed on Russia (reducing the economic growth), increasing number of tensions in the Middle East & Africa, etc will inevitably threaten the global economy & security. There is "SO FAR" only one reliable and achievable solution, which can prevent such disasters in many weak & vulnerable states around the world and at the same time ease the tension in the whole Middle East to some extent.  

Question:

The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. We should bear in mind that finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do specially at this critical juncture based on some reasons particularly: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

The Questions:

1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.

2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere. 

Note: H. Kissinger might have the answer; because i have seen some signs in his recent articles. 

M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015

Share your idea On Twitter: #TwentyMillionDollarsQuiz

The Price of Oil Will Fall Further. This Trend Might Not Destabilize Iran & Russia; But Undoubtedly It Would Destabilize Many Other Countries in the Middle East & Africa. Such An Event Would Inevitably Drag Many Countries Into the Conflict.

Briefly: Have a greater and broader picture about the consequences of various tensions in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia will continue with this trend and the price of oil will fall further. This issue would put pressure on Iran & Russia along with some other oil producer states; but it would not destabilize political systems in Iran & Russia based on many reasons. On the other hand, falling the price of oil further would destabilize many other countries mainly in Africa and the Middle East due to weak and undemocratic political systems. Such an event, would drag most part of the world into a new wave of global economic crisis and consequently would drag many countries into some type of conflict in all those unstable areas. In addition, we should bear in mind that the international community will lift the sanctions on Iran in the next coming week/weeks. This means, Iran can export its oil as well. This event will also decrease the price of oil in the market based on simple demand & supply formula. Such events will undoubtedly threaten the global financial sector to some degree as well. We can prevent such disasters by a master plan without firing a single bullet; The answer to the following question is My Masterpiece in this matter.    

Question:

The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. We should bear in mind that finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do specially at this critical juncture based on some reasons particularly: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

The Questions:

1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.

2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere. 

Note: H. Kissinger might have the answer; because i have seen some signs in his recent articles. 

M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015

Share your idea On Twitter: #TwentyMillionDollarsQuiz

Suffering From Low Oil Price And Losing Job in Oil & Gas Sectors in Your Countries? Your Solution Lies in the Answer to This Question.

It Should be added that changing the price of oil & gas is just one positive side effect of my Master Plan; A plan that without firing a single bullet can change the course of many events for good in the whole Middle East. 

The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. We should bear in mind that finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do specially at this critical juncture based on some reasons particularly: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

The Questions:

1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.

2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere. 

Note: H. Kissinger might have the answer; because i have seen some signs in his recent articles. 

M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015

Share your idea On Twitter: #TwentyMillionDollarsQuiz

By Implementing A Master Plan, We Can: 1- Ease the Tension in the Whole Middle East, 2- Change the Course of Many Events in the Region, 3- Change the Price of oil, etc.

It Should be added that changing the price of oil & gas is just one positive side effect of my Master Plan; A plan that without firing a single bullet can change the course of many events for good in the whole Middle East. 

The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. We should bear in mind that finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do specially at this critical juncture based on some reasons particularly: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

The Questions:

1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.

2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere. 

Note: H. Kissinger might have the answer; because i have seen some signs in his recent articles. 

M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015

Share your idea On Twitter: #TwentyMillionDollarsQuiz

A Question For All Strategists Around the World.

It Should be added that changing the price of oil & gas is just one positive side effect of my Master Plan; A plan that without firing a single bullet can change the course of many events for good in the whole Middle East. 

The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. We should bear in mind that finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do specially at this critical juncture based on some reasons particularly: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

The Questions:

1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.

2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere. 

Note: H. Kissinger might have the answer; because i have seen some signs in his recent articles. 

M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015

Share your idea On Twitter: #Quiz2016

The Quiz of 2016: I Can Create A Gold Mine From Current Disastrous & Unstable Middle East By Answering This Question. What About You?

It Should be added that changing the price of oil & gas is just one positive side effect of my Master Plan; A plan that without firing a single bullet can change the course of many events for good in the whole Middle East. 

The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. We should bear in mind that finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do specially at this critical juncture based on some reasons particularly: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

The Questions:

1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.

2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere. 

Note: H. Kissinger might have the answer; because i have seen some signs in his recent articles. 

M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015

Share your idea On Twitter: #TwentyMillionDollarsQuiz

The Quiz of 2016 For All Strategists Around the World; Challenge Yourself.

It Should be added that changing the price of oil & gas is just one positive side effect of my Master Plan; A plan that without firing a single bullet can change the course of many events for good in the whole Middle East. 

The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. Finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do particularly at this critical juncture based on some reasons including: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

Questions:

1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.

2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere. 

Note: I have the answers. What about you? (the previous notification in this part made the question very easy. As such,  i removed it).

M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015

Share your idea On Twitter: #Quiz2016

Challenge Yourself: A Question for All the Think Thanks Around the World (I Have the Answers; What About You?) On Twitter: #Quiz2016

It Should be added that changing the price of oil & gas is just one positive side effect of my Master Plan; A plan that without firing a single bullet can change the course of many events for good in the whole Middle East. 

The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. Finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do particularly at this critical juncture based on some reasons including: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

Questions:

1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.

2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere. 

Note: I have the answers. What about you? (the previous notification in this part made the question very easy. As such,  i removed it).

M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015

Share your idea On Twitter: #Quiz2016

A Challenge for All Strategists Around the World: Can You Answer This Question? (I Have Made the Question Easier; Try it Now).

I hope with newly added information someone would be able to answer my question. 


The Question:

The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some part of the Middle East is on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. Finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East at this critical juncture is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do at this stage based on some reasons including: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long term historical background; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

Questions:

1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.

2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region in a more stable and peaceful atmosphere. 

M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015

Note: How many people can answer this question? I will be glad to see someone has written an article or essay in this matter and published it in some reliable website. Regards. M. Sirani

The New Report of IAEA Amid Iran's PMD Shows How Much the International Community Can Trust the Iranian Regime and More Importantly the Religious Fatwa of Ayatollah Khamenei.

As i have noted this issue in earlier posts, in my opinion, Iran has probably managed to develop the nuclear bomb so far. The only thing that Iran needs at the moment is intermediate & long range ballistic missile to complete its nuclear weapon system.



M. Sirani                                        04.12.2015                          

IAEA Believes Iran Has Worked on Developing Nuclear Weapon in the Past, According to New Report Released Today.

Reference:
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/e56126ba82734407adf9cd7956162a0c/un-issue-final-report-iran


M. Sirani                         02.12.2015

Shooting Down Russian Jet And Helicopter Would Intensify the Tension in The Region. How Might Putin React?

Briefly:

Whether we like it or not, Putin is a rational actor in my opinion. He knows shooting down Russian jet and helicopter is a trap in order to facilitate the path toward NATO direct involvement in the tension in the Middle East. This is the will of Turkey amid changing the balance of power in the region. As such, the chance that Putin falls in this trap at least at this stage is very low. But that does not mean Putin forgets or forgives Turkey's aggression in this matter. In addition to arming Assad's Regime with highly sophisticated weapons, Putin can & might use other ways in order to retaliate today's Turkey act.

One of these ways might be arming the PKK (Kurdish separatist Group) by some anti-aircraft or anti-tank weapon, which would be used against Turkey army. This is something that Turkish authority should think about it.
As an old proverb says: Those, who live in glass houses, should not throw stone.


Note: There is low probability that Putin uses energy as a weapon in retaliation against Turkey.
Wonder why? 1- The most part of Russian economy depends on selling oil and gas. 2- The price of oil is very low at global market. 3- Russia is under the severe sanction by the West. 4- In many occasions, the western politicians have repeatedly accused Russia for using energy as a weapon against its enemies.. 5- Proxy war is cheaper, easy ( In the case of arming PKK is equivalent to Offshore balancing strategy) and in most of the cases, nobody can accuse the perpetrator. 6- Arming PKK is also acceptable for Iran. Iran itself has done it in the past in some occasion. etc. 



M. Sirani                            24.11.2015   

Secretary of State John Kerry Says: "There Was Some Type of Legitimacy or I might Say Rational Behind Charlie Hebdo Terror Attack"!!!!!.(Speechless for a an indefinite period of time).

Speechless for a an indefinite period of time.


Note: What a simple way for legitimizing and legalizing terror & barbarism. 

M. Sirani                   18.11.2015

Without Democratic Institutions, Secular Political System and Sustainable Development in Economic, Social, Cultural and Political Sectors, You Never Win the War Against Islamic Terrorist Groups.

This process should have started at least in 1990, following the collapse of Socialist political system in the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc.


M. Sirani                    18.11.2015

We Cannot Win An Ideological War By Military Operation Alone. Look At Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Nigeria, Mali, etc. Do We Need More Examples to Understand This Simple Fact?

With Military Strike Alone, You Cannot Fundamentally Defeat ISIS Nor Any Other Islamic Terrorist Groups. You Need A Comprehensive, Broad and Long Term Strategy For Most Part of Asia, Middle East and Africa.

Briefly:

We cannot win an ideological war by military operation alone. The experiences in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Nigeria, Mali, etc have shown this simple fact many times.



M. Sirani                17.11.2015

Impromptu: The Messenger of Terror (In Solidarity with all Victims of Terror Around the World and all Universal Humanitarian Values).

The Messenger of Terror

With an Old Testament in one hand,

And bloody sword in another one,

The messengers of hate, terror and horror, in vain,

Want to compel us to a regressive time travel,

Towards the darkest point of mankind history;

Wherein, there is no logic, reason or rationality

Neither tolerance, nor compromise, nor peace.

Their message is a clear compulsory choice:

“Kneel down, praise the Old Testament”,

“Or obey the order of my bloody sword”.

M. Sirani                    14.11.2015

A Group of Possibly Less Than 30 Terrorists Killed Nearly 140 Innocent People and Shut Down a Powerful Country At the Heart of the EU. Do We Understand the Scale & Level of Threat? Or Not Yet?

Once again i repeat:

With some moves, we can ease the tension in various parts of the Middle East and get rid of ISIS in both Syria and Iraq as well. It is not an easy task, due to the fact that many external actors are involved in all these tensions in the region; but it is possible.


M. Sirani            14.11.2015

The Citizens of EU Countries Do Not Experience Security & Safety, As Long As The Civil Wars in Syria, Iraq and Libya Continue.

In addition to those countries mentioned above, some other countries such as Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, Mali and highly likely Tunisia are the bases for various Islamic terrorist groups at the present. But due to many factors including the lack of capability of terrorist groups,  these countries do not produce imminent threat for the EU at the present time. This condition, however, does not last for ever. As long as the international community would be able to defeat the terrorist groups in Syria, Iraq and Libya in a professional and fundamental manner, some of these terrorists would move to Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, Mali and Tunisia and would begin with their unlawful and illegitimate activities in these countries.

Briefly: We should put an end to all civil wars in these countries as quickly as possible; otherwise we suffer a lot in the coming months and years, much more than what we are observing these days.


M. Sirani                 13.11.2015      

What Did i Warn On September, 2015? (ISIS Is Planing To Expand the Battlefield From Iraq & Syria Into the EU).

ISIS transferred its operational members into the EU through the influx of refugees. I warned this event through a short note (here below).  ISIS members are everywhere within the EU.


M: Sirani             13.11.2015




According to the news revealed by Express, ISIS has smuggled thousands of extremists into the EU. I anticipated such a event through a short note just four days ago. Here below is the copy of my short note.


M. Sirani           09.09.2015

Reference:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/555434/Islamic-State-ISIS-Smuggler-THOUSANDS-Extremists-into-Europe-Refugees

Here below is my previous note in this matter.

Warning: Those Genius EU Politicians, Who Say They Are Cutting Food and Shelter for Non-Refugees, Have Absolutely No Clue In What Type of Sh*** Critical Situation the EU Has Been Landing. 

Briefly:

Beyond the power and authority of anyone, the shadow of a huge threat has been arriving within the EU. Then some genius are saying they are cutting the food and shelter for non-refugees. Those genius think the current and future waves of refugees are like those, who arrived within the EU some years ago.  Just 0/05% wrong people among all can cause a huge disaster within the EU.

Some genius EU politicians still don't understand that just 4 terrorists caused the deployment of nearly 80,000 military and security forces across France during Charlie Hebdo attack.

For your own sake: Do not produce jargon; Just Wake Up. Deal with this crisis in an appropriate and professional manner; before it's too late. Otherwise, you will lose badly. As an example, nearly 60 states, some of them European, are the members of US-led coalition and are in a direct war against ISIS, Al.Qaeda, Al-Shebab and other terrorist groups across the Middle East and Africa.

Is it a difficult and impossible task that one or some of these terrorist groups would deploy some small numbers of their members to the EU through these large numbers of refugees? Is it difficult for this hypothetical small numbers to perform some lone wolf attacks within the EU? Should this happen (I hope not) what would be the reaction of public opinion within the EU states with regards to war against ISIS or other terrorist groups?

The answer is very simple: The citizens of such a state would force their government to retreat from the war against ISIS. The reason behind such a move is very simple: ISIS cannot compete with the US-led coalition highly sophisticated war planes neither in Iraq nor in Syria. But a terrorist act of a lone wolf within one of the EU countries can do a lot.  To put it simply, ISIS or maybe some other terrorist groups, by such a move would highly likely to expand the battlefield within geographical territory of the EU.  This sudden eruption of large scale refugees might not be a simple and ordinary move. Whether agree or disagree with my short note, we cannot deny the fact that there is some probability in this matter, which should neither be ignored nor underestimated.  

Therefore, i suggest the EU countries should deal with the current refugees crisis immediately and in a very appropriate, humane and professional manner; and be prepared for the next coming waves of refugees. And this is something that all the EU countries should coordinate and cooperate. This is a MUST, simply due to the lack of border guards among EU countries and the notion that a lone wolf act in one country within the EU would automatically impact the other EU states in different terms and forms. We should not forget that each member of the EU might have its own characteristics and rules in different terms, but when it comes to an important issue such as Security, all the members of union should perfectly coordinate and cooperate with each other. Otherwise the whole Union would become vulnerable and the negative consequences would be devastating for all.


Note: Don't misunderstand my short note. This is a fact that vast majority of these refugees are innocent and deprived people, who have been escaping from war zone areas to save themselves and their families. There is absolutely no doubt about it. My warning is about the possibility of a very small group of terrorists among these innocent people.

Once again, I hope my prediction in this matter would not come true; although i highly likely doubt about it based on many reasons, which exploring all of them is beyond the scope of this short note.

M. Sirani                  05.09.2015

According to CNN: Hostages Are Texting That They Are Being Killed 1-by-1. Begging For Police Raid.

Exclusive: France Under the Coordinated Attack of Terrorists; Nearly 100 Hostages, Multiple Shootings & Explosion (Possibly Suicide Bombing) Have Been Reported.

So far nearly 60 people have been killed and 100 being held hostage.

The Current Western Countries Policy & Political System in Afghanistan Do Not Function Properly. If Things Continue in This Way, The Future of Afghanistan Will Undoubtedly Be Determined By Iran, China & Russia Each From Different Perspectives.

Nazar Zaka An American- Lebanese Citizen (Somehow Related to Riverside Military Academy) Arrested in Iran on Espionage Charges.

Syria Peace Talks in Vienna.

Briefly:

The group of Iran, Russia and China might finally come to the conclusion that somewhere in the future, Bashar Assad should leave the power. But this decision does not mean that these countries would entirely give up their economic and Geo-Strategic interests and advantages in Syria. In the final stage of this negotiation, there is high probability that Russia, Iran and China would agree to replace Bashar Assad with some other Syrian politician, which would maintain and preserve their economic and Geo-strategical interests in Syria.

For further info amid economic and Geo-Strategic interests of Russia & Iran in Syria, the reader can read my essay entitled "An assessment about the Syrian Civil War" in this blog.


M. Sirani                30.10.2015
 

U.S. To Deploy About 50 Special Forces To Syria. A Reactionary Move, Which is Too Short, Too Little, Too Late.

Hillary Clinton And Her Proposal Amid A No-Fly Zone in Syria.

Briefly:

It is really shocking me, when i see a well experienced politicians, the former first lady of the U.S. proposes such an idea at this stage.

In addition to nearly 80-100 (As far as i know, if i'm not wrong) airplanes necessary for such an operation, air defense system, maintenance, etc and the overall cost of conducting and preserving a No-Fly Zone in Syria, such an operation at this stage means a direct military confrontation with not only the Syrian army, but also the Russian, Iranian, Hezbollah, etc. Needless to explain that the recent Russia & Iran direct military intervention have already made the situation in Syria more critical.

Based on many reasons, the Syrian sky is already prone to a direct military confrontation between different states.

Based on all briefly noted above, I'm wondering: does H. Clinton have any military or political adviser or IR expert in her team?


M. Sirani                              29.10.2015  

The Newly Adapted Policy of the U.S. Amid Deploying Some Ground Force Into Iraq & Syria is A Combination of Buck-Passing & Offshore Balancing in the Favor of Iran & Russia. This policy, In addition, Would Empower & Strengthen the Hegemony of Iran in the Region.

Do you have some reliable, reasonable and logical answer for the following questions?

Strategy? Tactic? What do you want to achieve? How? Who are your trustworthy forces on the ground in both quantity & quality matters? What & how is the relationship between your trustworthy forces on the ground (Both Iraqi & Syrian) and the central governments in both states? What type of balance of power exists in these two battlefields between various internal & external actors? What type of advantages in various terms you have in these battles in comparison with your rivals?
Who collect your data on the ground? How trustworthy your informants & HUMINT are? What are the advantages of your rivals (e.g. Iran and other Shiite affiliates in both countries) in different terms?
Who analyze/s your data? and many other questions.

Note: As i follow the news in the region including the two battlefields in Iraq & Syria, it seems to me that current U.S. policy makers have a huge problem in all questions noted above. Needless to explore & confirm my statement in this matter, due to the fact that through the past 4/5 years, you have reach nothing in these battles.  (Once again: With emotional and reactionary move, you reach nothing).


M. Sirani          28.10.2015  

U.S. Boots On the Ground in Iraq & Syria Would Probably End Up to Another Failure, Due to the Lack of a Clear, Effective and Reasonable Strategy in the Middle East.

Briefly:

As far as the USA does not have a clear strategy with regards to various events in the Middle East including the current tensions in Iraq & Syria, this policy would also end up to another failure, which would be totally beneficial for Iran and its allies in the region.

By an emotional or spontaneous or reactionary move, you cannot solve the problem in the Middle East.


M. Sirani                     27.10.2015  

As Far As the Ideological Vacuum and Undemocratic Political Systems Exist in the Middle East and Africa, ISIS, Al-Qaeda And Some Other Radical Islamic Groups Will Emerge and Rise in these Regions.

Briefly: This is a great topic for a comprehensive research, which its result can save the lives of millions of people in the next coming years & decades not only in the Middle East and Africa but also in the whole world, due to the fact that there are nearly 1,5 billion Muslims around the world.

As far as these two characteristics of the ideological vacuum and undemocratic political systems  (which each one of them causes different negative consequences within societies in these areas) exist, ISIS, Al-Qaeda and some other Islamic terrorist groups (From different branches of Islam) will emerge and rise in the Middle East and Africa. The western countries have missed nearly 25 years in this matter, since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Eastern camp, and still have no idea how to deal with this historical anomaly in a professional, appropriate and fundamental manner.



M. Sirani                      25.10.2015

Exclusive: Iraq Authorizes Russian Airstrikes Against ISIS (General Dempsey & Kenneth Pollack Should Follow the Development in Iraq).

Briefly:

Oops: Once again, Iran & Russia surprised you.


I anticipated this event through some notes long time ago. For further info, the readers can visit the following links:

1- You Are Shocking Me General Dempsey.
http://irancare.blogspot.no/2015/01/honestly-you-are-shocking-me-general.html

2- Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi Asked U.S. For Weapon. 
http://irancare.blogspot.no/2015/04/iraqi-prime-minister-haidar-al-abadi.html

3- What Is The Current Strategy of Russia in Syria? Do You Still Think Putin is Simply A Tactician? 

http://irancare.blogspot.no/2015/10/briefly-russia-has-begun-its-direct.html


M. Sirani                             23.10.2015

Iran (Politically & Militarily), China (Economically Through Development Programs) And Russia (Militarily, Economically) Will Swallow Afghanistan Somewhere in the Future.

Briefly:

Not to mention that the foundation of some of these issues has already started in Afghanistan. Based on many reasons, including geographical position, these countries have the upper hand with regards to the future of Afghanistan.


M. Sirani        23.10.2015

By This Letter, Ayatollah Khamenei Checkmated and At the Same Time Took the International Community, Laws and Conventions As Hostage For An Endless and Limitless Ransom. From Now On, No State Nor Any International Organization Can Do Anything At All With Regards to Illegitimate and Unlawful Activities of Iran; Simply Because, Iran Would Withdraw From the Nuclear Treaty.

Exclusive: In a Letter to Rouhani, Khamenei Endorsed the Nuclear Deal; But Reminded Him to Some Important Conditions (The End of Imposing Any Sanctions Based on Any Reason On Iran).

Briefly: I don't have the time to go through all the details of the letter. I just briefly reveals two points of the letter. (Iran won, all of you in the West lost badly & deeply).

In this letter, Khamenei reminds Rouhani to some important conditions with regards to the nuclear deal with 5+1.

One of them indicates a fact that imposing any sanctions on Iran based on any reason including terrorism or human rights in the next 8 years by any member of 5+1, means a clear violation of the nuclear deal. In such a scenario, Iran would withdraw from the nuclear deal.

Another condition is about the sanctions. According to Khamenei's letter, the fundamental structure of sanctions should totally be removed and the leaders of the USA and EU should confirm this issue through a written note. These two conditions simply are saying to the western countries that: Do not talk about snapshot or reversal of any sanctions in any area against Iran anymore. In other words, the wounded tiger (Iran) is totally out of the cage, and you cannot do anything about it. 

There are some other controversial conditions in this letter for example, with regards to Heavy Water Plant in Arak, the closure of Iran's PMD case by the IAEA and the notion that Iran should have 190,000 centrifuges at the end of 15 years.

In short, by this letter, Khamenei has checkmated and also has put the international community in a very critical position and that is that from now on, no state nor any international organization can do anything at all with regards to illegal, inhuman, illegitimate and unlawful activities of Iran in various terms and forms; due to the fact that Iran would withdraw from the treaty. In other words, by this move, Iran has taken the international community, laws and conventions as a hostage for an endless and limitless ransom.   


Note to the Western Countries:
As far as:
- You are promoting the Iranian Regime's lobbyists in different terms in your countries;
- You are using the Iranian Regime's lobbyists as Iran expert in your administration;
- You are conducting appeasement and apologist policy towards the Islamic Regime in order to secure your economic and Geo-strategic interests:
- You are ignoring the clear violation of human rights , pain and suffering of the Iranian people;
You deserve to be beaten and humiliated by the Islamic Regime in any battlefield.
Enjoy it and be prepared for full aggressive-offensive activities of Iran in the whole Middle East and a nuclear armed Iran somewhere in the future.

It should be mentioned that China & Russia are also swallowing Iran. But i don't write such a note to those totalitarian regimes; due to the fact that you (as the Western countries) are always screaming about human rights, liberal values and promoting these values in the world, not China, not Russia.




M. Sirani                             21.10.2015  

Based on Many Reasons, it Seems The Third Intafada Has Begun.

Briefly:

The whole Middle East is on the verge of explosion, partly due to the weak and shaky nuclear deal with Iran, which is not acceptable for most of the countries in the region. The deal to a large extent change the balance of power in the region in the favor of Iran. As such, most of the countries in the region feel threatened and would try to gain power through offensive reaction with regards to their potential domestic as well as foreign enemies. If the situation continues in this way, we are going to reach the hypothetical world of Thomas Hobbes in the Middle East, i.e. "the war of all against all", due to the fact that there are some Shiite Muslims in all Arab countries.


Note: I repeat again: By some moves, i can change the balance of power in the Middle East against the Iranian Regime. By these moves, i can develop a new equilibrium in the Middle East and ease the tension to a large extent; much better than what we are observing today.



M. Sirani                             18.10.2015

Freedom

Freedom

For all the sins that i could do,

But I didn’t in the entire my life,

Burn my body after my death;

And throw my ashes into an ocean.

Wherein, there is no fisherman,

Nor any fishing net or fishing boat.

Let free fishes consume my ashes;

Let my exhausted soul reincarnates,

In the bodies of curious free fishes.

Maybe my wounded soul for once,

Tastes the real essence of freedom.

For, i was born, lived and died in captivity.

M. Sirani                  16.10.2015

Iran's Long Range Ballistic Missiles Facility 500 Meters Underground (Film).

Iran's long range ballistic missiles facility 500 meters underground as the reporter in the film states. 

The film, however, shows that Iran has clearly violated the U.N. Security Council Resolution with regards to its missile programs. 

M. Sirani                   15.10.2015

Glorious Disobedience

While, he was trying to fly high,

Ugly vultures masked with smiley faces,

Wrapped in the dark square caps,

Shackled him on the ground,

With their filthy invisible wings,

Just because he loudly said no,

To their dirty secret game.

The vultures could cripple his body,

But not his mind, dignity and pride.

M. Sirani         Written on: 15.09.2015

Thousands Iranian Ground Forces Have Arrived At Hamim Airport in Syria. The U.S. Has Also Delivered Massive Ammunition to the Syrian Rebels Yesterday.The Syrian Conflict Is Going To Become A Total War, A Type of Endless Multi-Proxy Wars Between Various Actors.

Briefly:

The results of such an event would be devastating for the whole region in different terms accompanied with the influx of massive refugees toward the neighboring countries and the EU & nothing else. The side effect of this event, (if the tension in Syria would intensify more than what we are observing today) undoubtedly would impact the shaky ceasefire in Ukraine and possibly beyond Ukraine in Baltic States as well in various forms.



M. Sirani                   13.10.2015

Still Is Not Confirmed; A Russian Jet Was Shot Down By Turkish Forces After Violating Turkey's Airspace.

Briefly:

If this news is true and correct, we should be prepared for further complications and consequences with regards to current tension in the Middle East.

If this news is true, some of the basic and preliminary consequences would be:

1- The Syrian authority might give a strong warning to US-led coalition that from now on, they cannot conduct airstrike against ISIS positions inside Syria without permission from Assad's Regime. In other words, any violation in this matter would be answered by some Russian S-300 or S-400 anti-aircraft systems.

2- The second possibility would be intensifying tension in Ukraine.


In short, this event would intensify the tension not only in Syria but also in other areas in the region between different actors. Such an incident can drag the whole region into a broad and total war. I hope all the policy makers in this matter remember that the First World War was started with a single bullet.


M. Sirani                         10.10.2015


Reference:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/611157/Russia-Turkey-jet-plane-shot-down-airspace-Syria-ISIS-Islamic-State

Hell

Hell

Playing the role of a neutral judge
Between a rebellious passionate heart
And a stubborn logical mind
Means living in an eternal hell for ever


M. Sirani                         08.10.2015                        

Let Me.

Let Me

Let me touch your warm hands

To feel the magic power of life

Let me sink in your sweet eyes

To feel the endless beauty of the world

Let me kiss your soft lips

To feel the real sense of love

Let me hold you for ever

To feel the real taste of immortality

M. Sirani            07.10.2015

Une nuit à Paris

Une nuit à Paris

The flying notes of solo piano,

Were softly floating in the air.

The shadows of burning candles,

Were quietly dancing tango on the walls.

Two exhausted glasses of wine,

That couldn’t get enough time to flirt with each other,

Were curiously watching the scene.

A few innocent red roses,

Were unfairly sacrificed everywhere on the floor.

Those were, the only privileged guests,

Who, were invited in that secret feast;

Wherein, the devilish temptation forced two souls,

To imitate the mating dance of king cobras,

Under a silky cloud all the night.

Ce fut une soirée inoubliable à Paris.

M. Sirani                              04.10.2015

In Response to Recent Brzezinski's Statement Amid: Russian Naval Base in Tartus is Far from Homeland & Vulnerable; Russia Targeted ISIS Positions With Cruise Missiles From Caspian Sea Today. hahahahahaha

Briefly:

The real fun in Syria has just begun. hahahahahaha


Note: You are losing the battle in Syria & Iraq due to the fact that you didn't have a clear strategy from the beginning and still you don't have any. What you did in the past 4/5 years was just some spontaneous moves & sudden actions (Which i cannot call them tactics), which the result of all of them were wasting time, energy and resources and nothing else.



M. Sirani          07.10.2015            

Secretary of State John Kerry Asks for Plans for No-Fly Zone in Syria. (Sweet Dreams).

Briefly:

1- A No-Fly Zone in Syria approved by the UN Security Council?
2- Or a No-Fly Zone approved by NATO or US-led coalition?
3- Or a type of false & fake No-Fly Zone in order to persuade and convince Turkey and other neighboring countries of Syria to keep sheltering the refugees?

The 1 and 2 options are just political jokes; but the third one is achievable.


M. Sirani                  07.10.2015 

Following Russia's Intervention, For Syria Might Be Too Late; But We Can Change the Balance of Power Against the Iranian Regime in the Middle East. International Politics Is Not Always A Dead End Alley.

Briefly:

In the past two years, i designed two plans that by performing them we might have decreased the power of Iran in Syria. The first one was following the latest chemical attack in Syria, which took place on 21.08.2015. Tow days after that event i designed the first peace plan for Syria that chemical disarmament of the Syrian regime was part of the plan. I sent the first draft of the plan for most of the Western countries including the UN and the country that i live at the moment. I didn't get any response.

Title: A plan that might save the world from another disaster.

The second plan: I designed it just couple of weeks ago and wrote a short note in this matter and uploaded in my weblog. By performing that plan, we might have change the course of Syrian civil war in a better direction. Again, i didn't get any response.

At the present time: Russia's direct military intervention has changed the course of Syrian conflict in the benefit of Russia and Iran without any doubt. However, we might not be able to seize the power in Syria, but there is other possibility that by performing another plan, we might be highly likely able to change the balance of power in the whole Middle East against the Iranian Regime. I'm ready to share my plan in this matter with a reliable authority or an international institute.


M. Sirani                          06.10.2015   

Some Huge Problems That Zbigniew Brzezinski Didn't Predict.

Briefly: The negative consequences of Fundamentalism Realism.

Zbigniew Brzezinski is one of those scholars, who couldn't predict the negative consequences of nuclear deal with Iran and cooperation with Iran amid war on ISIS.

In the last couple of months, in many occasions, Brzezinski stated that the U.S. should focus on its interests and in the war against ISIS, the U.S. should ally with Iran.

What did Zbigniew Brzezinski miss?

1- The nuclear deal would empower & embolden Iran in different terms; as such the expansionist behavior and activities of  Iran in the Middle East and Africa will increase.

2- When it comes to the Middle East and Africa, Iran and the USA have completely different & contradictory Geo-strategical and economic interests: a type of fundamentally Zero-Sum game.

3- Russia is one of the closest allies of Iran. Russia and the USA also have different Geo-Strategical and economic interests particularly, when it comes to the two countries of Ukraine and Syria.

Based on what Brzezinski proposed, thus, the USA should cooperate with Iran and Russia and join these two states in the war against ISIS now. In this respect, the U.S. should totally ignore the interests of itself and its close allies in the Middle East including its NATO partner Turkey!!!!Does such a move compatible with US Geo-Strategical and economic interests in the Middle East in short and long terms?

This is just a tiny contradiction within Fundamentalism Realism (Machiavellian & Morgentahuian approach) of Zbigniew Brzezinski, which drags the USA into nowhere land and more confusional foreign policy around the world including in the volatile region of the Middle East.


Note: The current US administration should avoid purple screaming with regards to Russia's recent intervention in Syria. The administration is harvesting a huge confusion in Syria now, what it has cultivated before.  The strategy (if any exists) and tactics of the Western countries in the Middle East is similar to an old Iranian proverb, which says: You cannot seat on two chairs simultaneously for a long period of time; finally, you will fall and lose both chairs.  The problem of Brzezinski is the notion that he and those, who think like him, want to have a close and constructive relationship with Arab Leagues and Iran simultaneously and at the same time want to Iran agrees with removal of Bashar Assad & at the same support Arab League in the war in Yemen against Houthis and ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, endless other contradictions in the Middle East. It doesn't work anymore this type of contradictory policy. The world has changed and been changing. You should make up your mind in this battle and clearly say who is your close ally, who is your enemy. You cannot seat in both chairs and have a free ride, due to the fact that in addition to the USA, there are other super & regional powers around the world. Too much Machiavellian policy would end up to losing the orbits. (For your own sake look at Egypt as an example).  I can write a long essay in this matter; but honestly, i'm sicking tired of pro bono work and what you are reading in this simple weblog is just a type of hobby in my breaks. 

New Development:

In an article published today Brzezinski says: The US should retaliate and threatens Russia to stop,,,, Russian naval base in Syria is vulnerable and far from homeland,,,,, China stays in sideline,,,,,,. What does that mean? Direct military confrontation with Russia in Syria and at the same time building constructive relationship with Iran and at the same time trying to remove Assad from power, and the same time helping the Arab league in the war in Yemen against Houthis group backed by Iran, and endless further contradictions,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 


Maybe Mr. Brzezinski is not aware that 1- Russia's recent military deployment to Syria is far beyond just some airstrikes against ISIS, 2- Russia has declared that it is ready to deploy 150,000 ground force to Syria in a short period of time if is necessary, 3- Couple of days ago, Iran has openly and publicly deployed some ground forces to Syria (Thanks to shaky nuclear deal and lifting the sanctions), 4- Some Iranian military generals have yesterday arrived in Syria, 5- China's military advisers have couple of days ago arrived in Syria, 6- Haidar Al-Abadi has supported Russia's military intervention in Syria and has also said that he needs Russia's support in Iraq as well, 7- there is high probability that a huge ground force operation will be conducted in Syria and possibly in Iraq in the next step in the next coming days and weeks and many other issues, which all of them indicate a fact that Russia, China, Iran, Iraq, Syria have decided to put en end to the conflicts in both Iraq and Syria as soon as possible. (You had 4/5 years time and did nothing, nothing, nothing at all except flirting with the Iranian Regime in the public and making love with Iran in the secret and behind the close doors).  The game in Syria and Iraq is nearly over in the favor of Iran and Russia, unless a miracle happens.    

Traditional schools in IR are Anti-Update. Some scholars are physically living in 2015, but when it comes to mentality, they are living in some decades ago.


M. Sirani                05.10.2015            

The International Community Should Aware that Russia's intervention in Syria Means Intensifying Tension in Various Parts of the Middle East.

Needless to explore where, how and when.


M. Sirani                          04.10.2015  

Move Away From Syria (Possibly Iraq in the Next Step as Well); There Might Be Launched A Broad Ground Offensive Operation By Russian And Iranian Forces in the Near Future.

Briefly: (It seems Russia has announced that it is ready to deploy up to 150,000 ground forces into Syria in the near future). 


Everybody, who has a little bit knowledge in Peace & Conflict, War, International Relations, Political Science, should understand that a paramilitary group like ISIS and alike cannot be defeated by only airstrikes. Maybe the Western countries (US-led coalition) didn't pay attention to this basic understanding in the past two years war against ISIS, but the Russian and Iranian Strategists and tacticians have a proper knowledge in this matter and do not repeat the same mistake of the US-led coalition in this matter. In addition, both Russia and Iran have enough experience in warfare against paramilitary group like ISIS. In this respect, the two examples of Chechen War and the way that Iranian regime has been able to defeat the armed Iranian dissidents in the past 36 years could be mentioned.

What might happen in Syria and possibly in Iraq in the next step?

Based on brief details noted above and due to the fact that Iran has recently deployed some of its ground forces into Syria, there is high probability that in the next couple of weeks (following the broad Russia's airstrikes) we will observe a broad ground offensive military operation against ISIS, Al-Nusra Front, Syrian Rebels and any other group that fight against Assad's Regime. This broad offensive operation will be launched by the joint ground forces of Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, other Shiite groups and if necessary Russia's ground military forces. In case of such a scenario, this military operation will undoubtedly be continued against ISIS positions and alike in Iraq as well.
In short, Russia and Iran have decided to clean up the mess in both Syria and Iraq by all means.
Needless to explore the consequences of such a broad offensive operation not only within Syria and Iraq, but also in the neighboring countries, the Middle East and among US-led coalition.

Note: I might say, the war in Syria and Iraq has been nearly hijacked by Russia and Iran. Russia's military intervention will fundamentally change the course of war in Syria and possibly in Iraq as well in different terms. This event will enforce many unpredictable changes in the Middle East in various forms. As an example, Egypt has supported Russia's intervention in Syria. Thus, avoid purple screaming; you had 4/5 years time and did nothing, nothing at all. Just be prepared for further complications in the region.
   


M. Sirani                          04.10.2015      

Exclusive: Arming the Syrian Rebels with Anti-aircraft Missile At This Stage Means Intensifying & Expanding the Battlefield Beyond Syria & Iraq.

Briefly:

To refresh the memory of some: Some of the anti-aircraft missiles that USA gave to Afghan rebels to use them against USSR army in Afghanistan, some years later were used by Taliban against US army.


M. Sirani        03.10.2015 

There Is High Probability That From Now on, (Or in The Near Future) The Israeli Fighter Jets Cannot Easily Conduct Military Operation Inside Syria in Order to Stop Hezbollah Amid Weapon Transporting From Syria To Lebanon.

Empowering military capability of Hezbollah in both Syria and Lebanon; this is just one of the primary consequences of Russia's military intervention in Syria. The fun part of conflict in Syria & Iraq has just started. Massive changes are underway in the Middle East. (is not just Syria).

Note: I'm pretty sure the Western countries are still in the shock of Russia's intervention and have absolutely no idea what is waiting for them in the short & long term in both Syria and Iraq.


M. Sirani                    02.10.2015

The Situation in Both Syria & Iraq is Going to Be Pretty Nasty For You (The West) But in the Favor of Iran & Russia, Based on Many Reasons. You (The West) Need a Totally New Strategy.

I just warn you. I'm not in mood & have no time to write a note in this matter.


Note: Haidar Al-Abadi is welcoming Russia's military intervention in Iraq.  

I remember just couple of months ago, both General Dempsey and Kenneth Pollack (Bookings Institute)  in their testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee stated that both trust Haidar Al-Abadi. Following those testimonies, i wrote two short notes in this matter and briefly explained that they are wrong. Here below are two short notes i wrote in that matter.

1- You are shocking me General Dempsey.
Link: http://irancare.blogspot.no/2015/01/honestly-you-are-shocking-me-general.html

2- Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi Asked U.S. For Weapon. 
Link: http://irancare.blogspot.no/2015/04/iraqi-prime-minister-haidar-al-abadi.html




M. Sirani                02.10.2015

As Long As Iranian Regime's Lobbyists Are Iran Expert in Your Administration, Iran And Russia Will Beat & Humiliate & Surprise You In Every Battlefield in the Middle East.

I don't think any individual or institute or authority whether in the U.S. or the country that i live in it at the present or other EU countries dare to challenge me in this matter. You are harvesting what you have been cultivating.



M. Sirani                 02.10.2015

What Is The Current Strategy of Russia in Syria? Do You Still Think Putin is Simply A Tactician?

Briefly: This article has been written during a 30 min break, without any edit & references. Don't blame me in this matter, due to the fact that is a short note, not an academic paper or an article for publishing.

Russia has begun its direct military intervention in Syria since Wednesday. This event has shocked many and at the same time has created a hot debate among many politicians, scholars as well as journalists around the world. Some simply claim that Assad's Regime was on the verge of collapse; as such Putin would try to save the Syrian Regime by this move. Some others claim that Putin is not a strategist; he is a tactician and try to divert the mind of public opinion from current tension in Ukraine toward Syria by this move. Some like Richard Haass, the current President of Council on Foreign Relations claims that in the war against ISIS, Obama should have worked with Russia and Iran some time ago. In addition to these different analyses, there are some, who are screaming that Putin's military intervention in Syria would be finally beneficial for ISIS, due to the fact that Russian fighter jets would also bomb the Free Syrian Army and this event would create a fertile ground for ISIS, Al-Nusra Front and other Islamic radical groups within Syria. Each of these views to some extent touches some true part of the story, but the combination of all of them does not explore the final goal of Russia in this adventurous operation.

In my opinion some views such as 1- Putin wants to save Assad's regime, or 2- Russian military jets would bomb the Syrian oppositions in addition to ISIS positions and alike are some Chrystal Clear realities and to some extent shallow analyses that do not need any further explanation. My aim in this short note is to identify Putin's final goal in this military intervention. By identifying this point, then, i would examine the reliability of Richard Haass's idea and those, who like him believe that Obama should have cooperated with Russia and Iran in war against ISIS long time ago. In doing so, i would try to put my feet in the shoes of Putin and look at the whole event not only within Syria but also in some other geographical areas that Russia has some type of conflict with the West (NATO) e.g. Ukraine.

From this point of view: What would /might Putin see?
Putin would / Might probably see that:
1- Influx of refugees towards the EU and the statements of various UN and western politicians that some large number of refugees (1 to 1/5 million) will enter the EU in the next coming months. Germany alone says that it would shelter nearly 800,000 refugees. ( Sudden influx of nearly 500,000 refugees after 4/5 years tension in Syria along with these statements might have created an alarming image for Putin that it seems something might happen in Syria somewhere in the near future that all of a sudden a country like Germany, for example, has announced that it would take this large number of refugees).

2- Recent Military involvement of Turkey in the conflict. Turkey is one of those countries that no matter how, would like to get rid of Assad's regime by all means. Regarding the Syrian conflict, the Turkish policy makers have, so far, proposed many strange & to some extent,  adventurous ideas such as creating no-fly zone or creating a safe haven in the northern part of Syria. In addition, there are many rumors that Turkish authority has been supporting ISIS, Al-Nusra front and some other Islamic Radical groups within both Syria and Iraq. Analyzing the credibility and reliability of these rumors and the notion that Turkey used this event for militarily crushing the PKK and other Kurdish opposition groups by this military intervention are beyond the scope of this short note. The important issue for Putin is the fact that after nearly 4/5 years, Turkey has militarily involved in the Syrian conflict (This event would probably have created an alarming image for Putin that the West might perform a direct military intervention against Assad's Regime somewhere in the near future).

3- Recent Military involvement of  UK and France against ISIS facilities within Syria ( This event would have increased the probability of a possible western military intervention against Assad's Regime in the mindset of Putin).          

4- The other overt, covert and clandestine military intervention of the US-led coalition including supporting and arming the Syrian rebels should be added to all mentioned above.

5- But this is not the whole story. Simply, because there is another ongoing conflict between Russia and the West, which Putin should carefully take care of that as well and that is Ukraine. Although, Ukraine and Syria are far away from each other, but from Geo-strategical and economic point of view, both of them are highly important for Russia and Putin. Any weakness in one of these two battlefields is a huge lost for Russia and to some extent would undermine the power of Russia in another battlefield. As such, Putin would do his best by all means to keep the western countries away from these two countries and he is ready to pay every price in this matter, as the experience of last two years has clearly shown. Some might wonder, what is the correlation between the tension in Ukraine and current sudden Russia's military involvement in the Syrian conflict? This is the story. At the present time, there is some type of truce between the Ukrainian authority and the rebels in eastern part of Ukraine. But NATO is not quiet. In addition, to military maneuver, arming, training, deploying forces to Baltic States and Ukraine, NATO has decided to deploy some Ballistic Missile Defense System to Poland and Romania. The idea that Poland become a host for such a defense system is not a new proposal and goes back to many years ago. The tricky point is here. In those years, the Western countries particularly the USA claimed that the deployment of this defense system in Poland is not because of Russia; it is mainly because of Iran and its secret nuclear activity & threat. Russia was strongly against such a move, event in those years. Now, the nuclear dispute with Iran has been solved, as Putin looks at this event. As such, the western countries would deploy the Ballistic Defense system to Poland and Romania in order to weaken Russian military power. As i follow the news, the western countries & NATO are trying to use some incentives and convince Putin in this matter. This idea has so far, been rejected by Russia and some Russian politicians have stated that in case of such a move by the West, Russia would deploy some of its Iskandar Ballistic Missiles close to the borders with the EU. (Deployment of such a defense system to Poland and Romania is a serious threat and would extremely weaken the Russian military power in the region; this is something that Putin understands).

6- Another news is that the USA has recently decided to deploy some nuclear bombs to Germany.

In short, Russia enjoyed the Syrian conflict in different terms in the last 4/5 years by using Buck Passing and Offshore Balancing strategies . But the combination of all issues mentioned above created an atmosphere of fear in Moscow and Tehran that the West along with some countries in the region might conduct a broad military intervention, something like Yemen, against Assad's Regime somewhere in the near future. Such a assumption 1- forced Russia to militarily be involved in the Syrian conflict; 2- forced Iran to openly and publicly deploy its ground forces into Syria; 3- forced China to deploy its military advisers into Syria.

What is the plan?
The group of Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq and China (From behind) have decided to put an end to the civil war in both Syria and Iraq. In this respect, every individual and group (e.g. ISIS, Al-Nusra Front, Al-Qaeda, the Syrian rebel Army, etc) that fight against the political systems in Iraq and Syria would be identified as enemy and would be crushed by military forces of Russia, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Iraq and different other Shiite groups from the air or on the ground. In this battle, whether we like it or not, Russia and Iran have the upper hands based on many reasons including the recent nuclear deal & lifting the sanctions on Iran, which are equivalent to releasing a wounded tiger from the cage. In other words, from now on, the West should be prepared to deal with offensive activities of Iran across the Middle East and Africa. When it comes to the contemporary international laws and conventions also, whether we agree with it or not, the military presence of Russian and Iranian air & ground forces in both Syria and Iraq is legally legitimate, due to the fact that both political systems in these two countries have asked Iran and Russia to help them in war against ISIS and other terrorist groups. By direct military intervention in Syria, however, Putin would try to 1- defend and support Assad's Regime, 2- projecting the power and showing the teeth to the West with regards to both Syria and Ukraine and 3- to get some advantages from the West with regards to current tension in Ukraine as well. The current military intervention of Russia and Iran in Syria might have an extra benefit for Iran in addition to all explored above and that is facilitating extra opportunity for Hezbollah. From now on or somewhere in the future, the Israeli fighter jets might not easily be able to conduct airstrikes within Syrian territory in order to interrupt the transportation of weapons from Syria into Lebanon by Hezbollah. In other words, the current development would undoubtedly empower Hezbollah in various terms, not only within Syria but also Lebanon and to some extent in the region.  

What is the options of US-led coalition at the present time?
The US-led coalition, in my opinion has three options as follows:

1- Total retreat and withdrawal from both Syrian and Iraqi conflict, due to the fact that the final outcome of this conflict would be highly likely beneficial for Iran and Russia based on what briefly explored above.

2- Continuing with military operation in different terms in Syria and Iraq and simply offering assistance in various terms to Russia, Iran, Syria and Iraq in order to defeat ISIS and other Islamic radical groups in the favor of Russia and Iran at the final stage.

3- Continuing military operation in Syria and Iraq parallel to Iran and Russia but without any coordination in order to hijack the power in both Syria and Iraq. Based on many reasons, this option would lead to a humiliating defeat, intensifying tension not only within Syria & Iraq but also in some other areas, huge collateral damages, further destruction of both countries of Syria & Iraq, high probability that the tension in Syria & Iraq would spillover to another neighboring countries and influx of more refugees towards the neighboring countries & consequently the EU.

What is the final goal of Putin following the end of civil war in Syria?
If Russia would not be able to stop NATO with regards to deployment of nuclear bombs to Germany or Ballistic Missile Defense System to Poland and Romania or with regards to current tension in Ukraine, Russia might probably deploy some of its Iskandar Ballistic Missile or more powerful weapons to Syria in order to undermine the security of the EU in retaliation.

Based on what explored above, whether some readers like it or not, agree with it or not, i should admit, that from IR & Peace And Conflict points of view,  Putin is not a tactician; Putin (and his advisers) is one of the best chess players in our contemporary international politics. Some might not like it, but after Crimea , this is the second time that Putin checkmates the West & NATO. (Never underestimate your enemy= 101- IR & Peace and Conflict Course).

Considering all briefly explored above, i pose a simple question for Mr. Richard Haass and those who think like him: Do you still believe that USA and Other western countries should cooperate with Iran and Russia in this battlefields or not?


Note: You had 4/5 years time along with some golden opportunities including the fact that Iran was under severe economic sanctions and political isolation, and did nothing. The game in Syria is over now in the benefit of Iran & Russia. Like always you are just busy with some reactionary moves and as a result couple steps behind Putin and the Islamic Regime. When it comes to Syria, Ukraine, Iraq, Yemen and many other places, you don't have any reasonable & logical strategy and moreover, you are relying on Iranian Regim's lobbyists, as Iran expert, in your administration. As such, you will be beaten and surprised by Iran and Russia in various occasions.  


M. Sirani                       01.10.2015 
               

Exclusive: Be Prepared for A Huge Offensive Operation in Syria & Iraq; Iranian Ground Forces Have Arived in Syria.

Briefly: Russia, Iran and China (From the behind) have decided to clean up the mess in Syria & Iraq. In this respect, every individual or group, which would not be agree with political systems in Syria & Iraq would be identified as enemy.

The Western & Arab countries have three choices at this stage: 1- Total retreat and withdrawal from both Syria & Iraq, 2- Staying in Syria & Iraq and offering assistance to Iran & Russia in their favor, 3- Staying in Syria & Iraq in order to hijack the power from Iran & Russia. Based on many reasons, this option would lead to a humiliating defeat, intensifying tension not only within Syria & Iraq but also in some other areas, huge collateral damages, further destruction of both countries of Syria & Iraq, high probability that the tension in Syria & Iraq would spillover to another neighboring countries and influx of more refugees towards the neighboring countries & consequently the EU.



M. Sirani                01.10.2015  


Reference:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/01/us-mideast-crisis-syria-iranians-idUSKCN0RV4DN20151001?mod=related&channelName=worldNews&utm_source=Facebook

The West Needs A Totally New Strategy With Regards To Syria & Iraq; Of Course, If It Doesn't Want to Waste Its Resources For The Benefit of Its Adversaries.

Briefly:

It's funny & shocking: You had 4/5 years time. What did you do? (Be honest with yourself and find a reasonable and logical answer to that question).

Note: 101-Peace & Conflict Course might help.


M. Sirani                  01.10.2015