Overpopulation Is An Effect. The Dilemma of Neo-Malthusian.

         

               Malthusianism

                                 

                                  And  

                  

              The Overpopulation Dilemma

Name: M.Sirani

Institute: Noragric

Course: EDS290, Development Classics

Semester: 2^nd

Date of Submission: 5-5-2009

Total Words: 4171

Introduction:

Dr. Paul Ehrlich states “The battle to feed al of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now”. He argues “If we don’t do something dramatic about population and environment, and do it immediately, there’s just no hope that civilization will persist” (1974).

Jared Diamond says population growth and overusing natural resources lead to social collapse. Dr. Donald Aiken says “The government has to step in and tamper with religious and personal convictions---maybe even impose penalties for every child a family has beyond two” (wattenberg,1974). Some other scholars go further and attribute overpopulation to other causes such as: poverty, unemployment, environmental degradation, economic stagnation and political instability.

These are well known statements we hear from some academic institutions and media.    Some questions arise from these statements. Is population growth a threat for mankind? Is the world overpopulated? Is overpopulation a real threat or it is just a myth which diverts attention away from the real causes? Are these problems mentioned above, the effects of overpopulation or is overpopulations itself an effect? These are some questions which this paper will attempt to analyze. Before we begin the main discussion, it would be useful to have some information about the concept of “Overpopulation”, and some theories about population size through our history. Where did these views derive from and who introduced it for the first time? In the next section some of these theories will be briefly explained.  

1-The History of population’s Theories:

The concept of population size and population growth has been interesting subject for mankind since ancient time. Two main reasons have been the motivation for population size: Religious dogma and power. Zoroastrianism, Christianity and Islam have encouraged their followers to be “Fruitful and Multiply” and populate the Earth. On the other hand, some ancient civilizations such as Greeks and Romans advocated maximizing population size in order to become more powerful and stronger than other nations (Britannica,2009).

1-1- Mercantilists:

Between the 16^th and 18^th century most European societies were dominated by mercantilists. This economic group believed that large population provides larger labour supply, markets, armies for defence and foreign expansion such as colonialization. Their slogan was “The larger the population, the richer the nation”. Therefore, most of these countries emphasized and focused on population growth (Britannica,2009).

1-2- Physiocrats:

In 18^th century another school of thought that was popular in Europe, was “The Physiocrats”.

The Physiocrats were economists who believed that the wealth of a nation is derived from the value of agricultural land and agricultural development. This group argued that economic wealth can be achieved from land and agriculture not from population growth (Britannica,2009).

1-3- Utopians:

Another school of thought in the 18^th century was the Utopians. This group believed that humans are mature enough to manage their own lives. Therefore, societies do not need coercive institutions such as police, law, property ownership and family. They believed that all amount of resources must be controlled by all people in society and if there is any limits in population growth, it must be established by people in society. One of the leading proponents of this view was Daniel Malthus the father of Thomas Robert Malthus the founder of social demography. T.R. Malthus was influenced by his father to ideas about population size, food production and relationship between these two concepts. (Britannica,2009). Now we have some knowledge about these theories it would be useful to know who explored modern demography for first time. In the next section Malthus’s population theory will be discussed.

2-Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834):

Malthus was a British political economist and demographer. His major contribution to economic and social thought came in the essay “The principles of population”. This controversial theory made him one of the central figures in population debates in the 19^th and 20^th centuries (Elwell,2006). Today some scholars known as “Neo-Malthusians” use Malthus’s theory and assert that contemporary problems such as poverty and environmental degradation in developing countries are the effects of overpopulation. In order to understand the Neo-Malthusian view is better to have some knowledge about Malthus’s social theory. 

2-1- Malthus Social Theory :( Elwell,2006)

The population theory of Malthus has been rejected by many scholars, but without any doubt it can be said that his ideas have had important effects, not only in demography, but also in public policy, classical & neoclassical economy and biology. In 1798, Malthus published the first edition of his essay anonymously. In that time, some Utopians scholars like    M. Condorcet and W. Godwin had published their views and predicted a future world without disease, anguish, melancholy, or resentment (Leathers&Foster,2004). In fact, Malthus wrote his essay in response to the Utopians, but the lack of empirical evidence and anonymity of the writer caused that this essay became the target of broad discussion and attack. These criticisms stimulated Malthus to collect more data and evidence in order to better defends his hypothesis, which he pursued in future editions of his essay. In his essay, Malthus analyzed the relationship between population growth and food resources.

According to Malthus, the humankind has two basic needs: food and sex. The first need leads humankind to production of food and the later to reproduction of children. Malthus stated “The rate of reproduction is higher than the production of food”. Malthus argued that the population size (unchecked) increases in a geometrical ratio ie.2,4,8,16,32,64 and food resources increase in an arithmetical ratio ie.1,2,3,4,5,6. He stated that the population will be double in size in next 25 years and our food resources will not be enough to feed all the population. Therefore, we must check the population growth by using two types of control: Preventive and Positive checks which both have negative consequences for individuals as well as societies. 

2-2- Preventive Check:

According to Malthus, the preventive check can be done in different ways. The ideal type for Malthus was, to practice the celibacy before marriage and marry late until a couple can support their children. Malthus believed this action creates misery for humankind. He stated that desire for sex is one of the basic human needs and constraining this desire leads the individual towards “unnatural acts” such as prostitution, and the use of birth control. Malthus argued that by using preventive check some other problems will b occur in society.

First it increases unhappiness among men and women. Second it decreases life expectancy, as an effect of sexually transmitted diseases and drugs. Finally, the practice of non-productive sexuality destroys the virtues and purity of manners in family as well as society (Elwell,2006).

2-3- Positive Check:

Malthus stated that there must be balance between the population size and subsistence from the environment. He argued that the lack of space for grows and nutrition enforces animals and plants use this type of check and they do not feed their offspring. In humankind this positive check would be some natural or artificial disasters which reduce the large number of human populations such as, famine, disease, hard labour, misery, war and unwholesome occupations.

Based on these statements Malthus illustrated cyclical relationship between production and reproduction. He argued when the food production increases, the price of food will decrease and this easy access to cheap food stimulates the families to have more children. The rise in population creates two problems. First the demand for food increases and as a result the prices go up and second the number of workers increases and as a result the wages decrease and through an unfair competition the new labourers will work harder, longer and cheaper.

These events induce the farmers to increase the productivity by hiring more workers and putting more land under cultivation. And again, this increase in productivity stimulates reproduction. According to Malthus, this cycle is not static because some other events such as wars, disease, economic cycles, technological breakthrough and government action can influence and disrupt it. Malthus claimed that this problem has always existed and will continue in the future societies. Thus, he concluded that inequality lies in the structure of human societies and that equal distribution of wealth and resources to all can not be achieved.

He stated that every society needs a working class and the labourers are responsible to wrest resources from nature. He believed that self-interest and private property provide stimulation and motivation for human thought and action. In this case, Malthus stated that inequality is a natural phenomenon in the social structure of human society. In fact, Malthus could not analyze logically the cause of poverty in his social theory, although, he did not believe that the poor people were responsible for their condition and he said the poor “Are the unhappy persons who, in the great lottery of life, have drawn a blank” (Elwell,2006).

As mentioned in the beginning of this paper, Malthus’s theory was controversial idea in those years at different fields. However, Malthus was a proponent of free medical care for the poor, universal education and democratic institutions which in those years were radical ideas, but many scholars such as Marx criticized him and some religious institutes accused him to blasphemy. Marx harshly criticized Malthus theory and called him a “Miserable parson” guilty of publishing “Vile and infamous doctrine”. Marx stated that these problems which Malthus states occur only in capitalist systems. He argued that under socialism and with functioning state the surplus product of labour and wealth will be distributed equally among all people in society and this will eliminate the poverty (Britannica,2009) On the contrary there were some other scholars which appreciated Malthus ideas. Charles Darwin the founder of Evolution Theory acknowledged a great debt to Malthus in the development of his theory of Natural Selection (Britannica). Besides social theory, it can be said that Malthus was one of the scholars during the Enlightenment that provided rational explanations for social development. Like a philosopher he used reason and empirical data to postulate abstract theories in different fields in society such as economy, population and the relationships between them.

 This was a short explanation about Malthus and his social theory. In the next section the view of Neo-Malthusians will be explained. This school of thought believes that all contemporary problems are the effects of overpopulation.

3- Neo-Malthusians view:

One of the most influential views at the present time about population is Neo-Malthusianism.   The proponents of this view based on Malthus social theory argue that rapid population growth causes different social, environmental, economic and political problems.

P. Ehrlich in his book” The Populations Bomb” (1974) states that:

“Remember, overpopulation does not normally mean too many people for the area of a country, but too many people in relation to the necessities and amenities of life. Overpopulation occurs when numbers threaten values”.

He continues that the world is running out of food because of overpopulation and according to him “the battle to feed humanity is lost”. He states that half of the world population suffers from little food and scarcity of proteins and vitamins in their diet.                                                                                   

Furthermore, he continues that rapid population growth has influenced the face of the Earth and as a result some organisms both plants and animals are now extinct. Based on these explanations, he concludes that environmental degradation has negative impacts on human life not only physically but also mentally and as a result we are witnessing more riots, rising crime rates, disaffection of youth, and increased drug usage in our societies (Ehrlich,1974).

Some other Neo-Malthusian scholars suggest that government must be more involved and, in some cases, must impose punishments for people who do not follow the population control program.

One of the strongest positions on population control comes from Dr. Garret Hardin when he says “In the long run voluntarism is insanity. The result will be continued uncontrolled population growth” (Ben.Wattenberg,1974). In this particular case it means that it is necessary for a government to enforce the people to have fewer children.

These scholars blame the overpopulation in developing countries for the responsible cause of environmental degradation. In different international and domestic conferences, they argue that deforestation and air pollution occurring in developing countries, threaten the whole world. According to this view, the overexploitation of lands and natural resources causes these environmental problems. Generally, the whole Neo-Malthusian view can be illustrated more in paragraph below. This paragraph states that:

“In the New Malthusian view it is argued that rapid population growth results in widespread poverty, economic stagnation, environmental destruction, rapid urbanization, unemployment, and political instability. During the years of Cold War and the Vietnam War, in particular the view prevailed that overpopulation, resulting in mass hunger, was a breeding ground for revolutionary activity”. (Hewitt& Smyth,2000).

At this point we have some knowledge about Malthus social theory and Neo-Malthusian view. In order to illustrate more our discussion, it would be useful to have some knowledge about the theory of demographic transition.

4- The Demographic Transition Theory :(Leathers&Foster,2004)

This theory classifies the population growth by considering the fertility and mortality. The first formulation was explored by English demographer Warren Thompson in 1929 and later developed by Frank Notestein in 1945 (Britannica,2009). According to this view the World population growth passes through four stages.

4-1- Stage I

Preindustrial stage: In this stage both fertility and mortality are unchecked. The birth rates are higher than death rates. However, some disasters such as wars, famines and epidemic diseases cause population loss, but population grows slowly.

4-2- Stage II

Mortality Decline before fertility decline: In this stage by help of better public medical care, better food, and water supplies, death rates decrease and life expectancy increases. If the birth rate does not change by some disastrous events, the population will grow rapidly.

4-3- Stage III

Fertility decline: As a result of more urbanization and industrialization the birth rate usually decreases because more people are interested to limit their family size. Maybe periodic population grows rapidly, but when the death rates and death rates are even the population grows slowly and may even fall to zero or below.

4-4- Stage IV

Modern Stage: In this level, both the birth rate and the death rate are low and population size is stable. The family size is small at about two children per family and if the fertility rate increases, population size increases slowly. The figure 1 below illustrates the demographic transition theory.

Population

                                                                   Time 

        A                 B               C                D

Figure 1: Demographic transition theory :(Leathers&Foster,2004)

A: Stage I: High birth &death rates.

B: Stage II: Birth rate high, declining mortality.

C: Stage III: Declining birth rate.

D: Stage IV: Low birth&death rate.

There are several reasons which confirm the demographic transition theory. Below are some examples that will be discussed.  Based on demographic transition it can be concluded that:

First, developed countries passed through these stages and are at stage IV and in some cases even the birth rate is less than death rate in these countries. For example, statistic shows that Sweden before 1805 was in the last point of stage A with almost equal birth and death rates. From 1805 until 1875 Sweden passed Stage B, when the death rates decreased. Since 1875 until 1975 was Sweden in stage C, as birth rates decreased faster than death rates. Since then until now is Sweden in stage D and that means birth and death rates are almost equal and it can be said that the birth rate is less than the death rate.

Second, a comparison of population growth rates between developed and developing countries show that the birth rate in developing countries is higher than developed countries.

These are the population growth rates of three continents in the period 1995-2000.

- Africa: 2.35 percent per year  

- Asia: 1.41 percent per year

- Europe: 0.02 percent per year

These statistics shows also that developed countries (Europe) are in the last stage (D) of demographic transition.(Leathers&Foster,2004)

In order to illustrate more differences, let us compare two countries from developed and developing countries, Norway and Afghanistan.

Year	Population growth rate (%)	Year	Population growth rate (%)
2000	0.5	2000	3.54
2001	0.49	2001	3.48
2002	0.47	2002	3.43
2003	0.46	2003	3.38
2004	0.41	2004	4.92
2005	0.4	2005	4.77
2006	0.38	2006	2.67
2007	0.363	2007	2.625
2008	0.35	2008	2.626

                        (Norway)                                                          (Afghanistan)

Table 1 :( (Indexmundi.com,2009)

The table 1 illustrates that the population growth rate in Afghanistan is much higher than in Norway. Other statistics released by some international organizations also confirm that population growth in developing countries is much higher than developed countries. But these questions still remain: Is there any relevant relationship between Malthus, Neo-Malthusian theories and development in the third world countries? Are developing countries poor because of overpopulation? Is overpopulation a cause or an effect?  What are the causes of overpopulation?  These questions will be discussed in next section.

 5- Discussion:

 Malthus can be named as the founder of modern demography, but there are some contradictions in his social theory. He did not predict the technological, social and cultural development and their effects in human life. At the present time based on technological inventions in different fields of science, agricultural production has increased enough to feed the total population in the world. Different medical methods have been explored in order to limit or prevent pregnancy such as contraception, sterilization and abortion. 

 On the other hand, these scientific developments have been accompanied with social and cultural progressive changes such as small family size.

Logical philosophy states that when we are facing a problem, the use of the cause and effect formula would be the best alternative. Otherwise, the problem will not be solved fundamentally. One of the major contradictions in Neo-Malthusian view is that they do not analyze the poverty and overpopulation in developing countries through this casual reasoning formula. In fact, the Neo-Malthusian view tries to divert the public discourse from the real causes of poverty by emphasizing the effects of overpopulation.

However, based on statistics published by some international organizations such as UN it can be derived that population growth rates in developing countries are higher than developed countries, but it has to be emphasized that overpopulation is one of the effects of poverty. It means the people are not poor because they have many children; but have many children because they are poor. In order to highlight more our discussion, let us examine the cause of overpopulation.

5-1- Some of The causes of overpopulation:

As mentioned above the population growth is higher in developing countries. There are some socio-economic and political factors involved in this case. Here below some of them will be briefly explained:

5-1-1- The lack of access to proper health care, food, drinking water, and education increase the infant mortality.

The high infant mortality rates in developing countries enforce the women to have more births in order to be sure that some of children survive until adulthood.

5-1-2- Severe poverty forces the parents to have more children.

Because the children have economic values for parents and in some cases, they may relieve their mothers from work. In developing countries, children begin to work from the age of 6 or 7 years old. For example, in Iran in the countryside the children are responsible for some activities like: Working on land, cleaning, caring for chickens, ducks, domestic animals, and younger children. In the city, some of children have to work for wages in different occupations such as tailors, barbers, etc.

5-1-3- Children have more security in elderly time for parents.

There is no welfare and social security for people especially for the elderly. The children (especially sons) are responsible to provide security for their parents during their old age. Therefore, parents try to have more children in order to ensure their future.

5-1-4- Having more children equals more power during a conflict:

The lack of rule of law and instability forces the parents to have more children in order to defend themselves against other ethnic group offences. The countryside in Iran could be an example where some families are proud and strong because they have 7 or 8 sons.

5-1-5- Gender inequality:

The lack of good governance and proper education has created traditional and patriarchal societies in developing countries. As a result, the women have unequal rights and this has created social and cultural obstacles for women. In some developing countries, young women are forced to marry under the age of 18 years old and the best role for them is to be a “Good mother”. In most of developing countries, they do not have even control over their bodies (fertility and sexuality) and abortion is prohibited for them. (Iran based on Islamic law).

Based on the statements noted above, it can be concluded that overpopulation in developing countries is an effect of poverty itself. In order to solve this problem, we have to find a fundamental solution for abolishing poverty.

6- Conclusion:

In conclusion I have to imply that there is no relevant relation between these Malthusian theories and development in the third world countries and overpopulation can not be the cause of underdevelopment and poverty. Based on the demographic transition theory and other statistics published by international organizations like UN it can be said that population growth rates in developing countries are higher than developed countries. This statement also shows that countries with high income have less overpopulation problem. As it noted in this paper the Neo-Malthusian view claims that rapid population growth causes different problems like, Poverty, economic stagnation, environmental destruction, air pollution etc.

As I explained in this paper all these problems are the results of underdevelopment and poverty in third world countries. Poverty is the cause of overpopulation and criminal activities. When people in third world countries do not have access to clean energy, they use fuel-wood. When they can not afford fertilizers for their agricultural land, they burn the land and leave it for one year to be suitable and strong enough again for cultivation.

Here I have to emphasize that the only solution for all these problems is sustainable development. Sustainable development can be achieved through good governance.

In order to achieve sustainable development some policies must be taken seriously and simultaneously by governments, including:

- Good macro and micro economic development programs.

- Good land reform and agricultural development.

- Fundamental investments in human capital. It means proper education, healthcare, family planning, improved nutrition and anti poverty programs.

- Rule of law, civil and civic society.

In addition, one of the most important factors would be establishing, democracy, freedom and equal rights for both men and women.

All these factors must be done simultaneously, because all of them are related to each other and none of them can be achieved fundamentally without others.

M.Sirani        5.5.2009 Norway

- References:  

Aiken. D. (1974) in Bahr, H. M. & Chadwick, B. A. & Thomas, D. L. (eds) Population, Resources, And The Future: Non-Malthusian Perspectives, Brigham Young University press, Provo, Utah.

Bahr, H. M. & Chadwick, B. A. & Thomas, D. L. (1974) (eds) Population, Resources, And The Future: Non-Malthusian Perspectives, Brigham Young University press, Provo, Utah.

Diamond, J. (1974) in Bahr, H. M. & Chadwick, B. A. & Thomas, D. L. (eds) Population, Resources, And The Future: Non-Malthusian Perspectives, Brigham Young University press, Provo, Utah.

Darwin, C. (2009) Population: Available at: http://search.eb.com/eb/article-9108576 , Accessed: (25, 04, 2009)

Ehrlich, P. R. (1974) The Population Bomb, Cox and Wyman Ltd, London

Ehrlich, P. R. (1974) in Bahr, H. M. & Chadwick, B. A. & Thomas, D. L. (eds) Population, Resources, And The Future: Non-Malthusian Perspectives, Brigham Young University press, Provo, Utah.

Elwell, F. W (2006) The Classical Tradition: A Summary of: Malthus, Marx, Webber, Durkheim, Rogers State University.

Figure Demographic Transition Theory: (2004) in Leathers, H. D. & Foster, P. The World Food Problem: Tackling The Causes of Undernutrition In The Third World 3e, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc. Colorado 80301.

Godwin, W. (2004) in Leathers, H. D. & Foster, P. The World Food Problem: Tackling The Causes of Undernutrition In The Third World 3e, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc. Colorado 80301.

Hardin.G. (1974) in Bahr, H. M. & Chadwick, B. A. & Thomas, D. L. (eds) Population, Resources, And The Future: Non-Malthusian Perspectives, Brigham Young University press, Provo, Utah.

Hewitt, T. & Smyth, I. (2000): in Allen, T. & Thomas, A (eds) Poverty And Development Into the 21^st Century, In association with OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS.

 Leathers, H. D. & Foster, P. (2004): The World Food Problem: Tackling The Causes of Undernutrition In The Third World 3e, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc. Colorado 80301.

Marx, K. (2009) Population: Available at: http://search.eb.com/eb/article-9108576 , Accessed: (25, 04, 2009).

Table 4-6: Available at: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=24&c=af&l=en,

Accessed:  (28, 04, 2009)

Wattenberg. B. (1974) in Bahr, H. M. & Chadwick, B. A. & Thomas, D. L. (eds) Population, Resources, And The Future: Non-Malthusian Perspectives, Brigham Young University press, Provo, Utah.

2008 Africa population: Available at: http://www.prb.org/pdf08/africadatasheet2008.pdf

Accessed: (27, 04, 2009)

We Need Urgently A New World System; Before It's Too Late.

Briefly:

There are many weaknesses & loopholes within our current international institutions, laws, regulations & conventions. As a result of these weaknesses, we are unable to deal with many challenges in a proper, sustainable & fundamental manner.
 Needless to prove & explore this statement. Some issues such as influx of refugees & migrants from developing countries toward developed world, widening gap between poor & rich people, large numbers of unsolved & prolonged conflicts & tensions in various parts of the world, global economic down turn, the rise of right wing political systems in many areas, etc are just a few examples, which clearly confirm my statement noted above.

We should also bear in mind that our international institutions, laws, regulations & conventions are not the only actors & factors, which form, shape and determine our world system. There are some powerful actors in our world, who their policies at domestic & foreign affairs would impact our world system in different terms and scales. This process could be negative or positive for some or for many actors around the world.

Considering the brief explanation noted above, our contemporary world system has faced some serious problems as follows. A- Weak & incompetent international institutions, laws, regulations & conventions, B- Lots of problems & conflicts around the world as a result of these weaknesses C- A weakening a super power and the rise of new powers. Before the victory of D. Trump in 2016 election, the USA was declining. On the contrary , the EU & China (Plus its bloc) were on the rise in different terms. Both China & the EU were trying to shape the world system towards their own economic & Geo-strategical interests, without causing a major conflict with the USA or even with each other. The victory of D. Trump and his policies have interrupted the plans of China & the EU at regional and global level in different terms. To put it simply, we are currently observing a world system, wherein there are multidimensional conflicts between various actors including the powerful actors and none of these powerful actors is able to impose its hegemony on other ones. The existence of simultaneously weakness & conflict between powerful states, would automatically facilitate an opportunity for some regional actors to try to expand its influence in their neighborhood. This issue would cause some regional tension & conflict in some parts of the world as well. In this respect, Iran & North Korea could be mentioned. Based on this brief explanation, i can say that there are many similarities between our current world and the world between 1930s & 40s. As such, i strongly believe, our world system has reached an extremely critical & dangerous juncture. In order to prevent a major explosion in our current world like those world wars in the past, we should work on two major issues as follows.

A- Imposing some reforms, adjustments (and in some areas totally change) in our international institutions, laws, conventions & regulations.
B- Designing and implementing some new plans & programs for some parts or our world particularly those conflictual areas like the Middle East & Africa.

By performing these issues, not only we would be able to solve many of ongoing problems & conflicts in various parts of the world but also we would create a new world system, which is more peaceful & stable. Should this happen, we would be able to deal with many challenges in an appropriate, sustainable and fundamental manner.


M. Sirani                      10.09.2018

For The Record: My Multi-Phase Plan Can Solve Many Conflicts Across the Middle East & Some Parts of Africa & Prevent Further Disaster; If the UN Facilitates A Neutral & Legitimate Platform For Me.

Brief:

Due to miscalculation, misanalysis, wishful thinking & adventurism, the plans of the USA, Israel, Arab States, Iran & Russia with regards to various tensions & conflicts across the entire Middle East will fail without any exception. This includes the multiple efforts of the UN in the region as well. The results would be only more collateral damages, destruction, more refugees, displaced people and broader battlefield; and nothing else.

In this respect, i have designed a Multi-phase plan, which not only can solve some of the ongoing conflicts in the region in a sustainable & proper manner but also would prevent the occurrence of  many horrific events across the Middle East & some parts of Africa in the future. Based on many reasons including technical point of view, my plan should be introduced & implemented by & through a neutral & legitimate platform like the UN.

However, despite multiple warnings & statements in this regard, i haven't received any response from the UN so far.

Note: One might wonder why i don't introduce my plan or at least some parts of my plan openly & publicly in this blog. In response to this question, i should state that there have been many examples in the past that i have introduced a plan for some event; but my overall rights with regards to that plan & its implementation have been ignored & violated by some actor/s.  As a result of this type of unfair practice of some individuals & entities, i don't release any detail about my plan in this blog since 2013.

As an example in this regard, my plan for "Chemical Disarmament" of Syrian government could be mentioned. Two days following the chemical attack in Syria (21.08.2013) i designed this plan and after many efforts, without receiving any positive response, i finally uploaded in my blog.
The title of Plan: 
"A Plan That Might Save The World From An Additional Disaster" (Irancare).



M. Sirani                         10.09.2018

Chinese Computers, American Softwares, Russian Antiviruses; Don't Expect Me To Write Everything in This Weblog. As An Example: I He Designed A Multi-Phase Plan For the Entire Middle East & Some Parts of Africa. But Due to This Security Concern, I haven't Written or Uploaded A Single Line of My Plan on My Computer And Accordingly This Weblog. This is My Policy Since 2013. What you See in My Weblog Is Just A Tiny Scratch of My Understanding, Analysis & Plans With Regard to Various Issues & Events Around the World. Just A Tiny Piece..

In Addition To the Life of Couple of Millions Palestinian Refugees, Closing UNRWA Program Will Jeopardize the Peace & Stability in Both Lebanon & Jordan. Creating Headache For Hezbollah & the King of Jordan as the Official Custodian of Jerusalem At Their Homes!!!! (The International Community Should Not Let This Happen).

The Plans of All Actors Involved in Various Parts of the Middle East Including A Distinguished Pundit Like H. Kissinger Are Doomed to Fail.

Briefly:

Following the World War 2, some pundits or politicians within the USA could design any plan whatsoever and impose it to the rest of the world by using some advantages such as the economic & military leverages of the USA. Those years are over due to many factors including the fact that our world has gone through various changes in different terms and the notion that the current USA cannot use its economic & military power the same as it did in 1960s or 70s; although the current USA is still the most powerful country in our world in these areas. In this respect the Middle East is a good example. According to the media, J. Kushner would get advise from H. Kissinger with regards to many issues in the Middle East including in case of Israeli and Palestinian peace process. The failure of this case does not need any further argument and explanation, when we observe the Palestinian authority does not talk with anyone from Trump administration anymore. So would be the case of Syria & Yemen. When it comes to Syria, in a very best case scenario and extremely optimistic manner, Syria would become something chaotic like current Iraq; if not Afghanistan. IN case of Yemen, the USA & Saudi-Led coalition, will experience a quagmire worse than Afghanistan.

Some claims that the recent rapprochement between Trump and Putin is also Kissinger's plan for curbing & countering China. In this respect, i can say that the essence of this plan is correct. One way to curb China is detaching Russia from China. However, the way that Trump is going to implement this plan is totally wrong from different direction. In short, this plan, the way that Trump wants to implement it, would lead not only to the total failure but also would damage the Western Bloc from various directions.
In addition to this plan mentioned above, i have another plan for curbing & countering China. I don't reveal this plan, because of  its devastating negative consequences in different terms for the entire world including the massive population size of China.

In short, as i have repeatedly said, the plans of all actors involved in various tensions across the Middle East, without any exception, would end up into total failure. The result would be only more collateral damages, further destruction, more refugees and displaced people, broader battlefield and nothing else. As far as i follow the moves & policies of all actors in the Middle East, i can say with high certainty that i am the only one, who can clean up the mess in the entire Middle East & part of Africa by implementing My Master Plan. I hope the responsible entities in this regard including the UN would come to my conclusion as soon as possible; before it's too late.

M. Sirani                                     29.07.2018       

The Press Conference of Trump & Putin Should Be An Alarming Sign For Many; Period. Be Prepared For Many Flip Flops Around the World (The UK Would Be An Interesting Case Study in This Regard).

Trump & Putin Helsinki Summit; A Brief Explanation.

Briefly:

Trump uses "Russia Troll" to milk the EU, Canada & Australia in different terms including getting a good trade deal, selling U.S. weapons, oil & gas to them. By closing to Putin & Russia, Trump would try to create a headache for China as well. In addition to these issues, Trump has a bigger plan in his mind and that is, developing a new world order by the help of Russia. If Trump would be able to convince Putin to become a close ally to the USA, Trump would be able to achieve his goal. Should this happen, Trump would be able to have full control about most part of energy resources around the world (USA+Russia+Arab States). As such, Trump would be able to impose the U.S. hegemony on most part of the world including on China and the EU as two tough economic competitors for the USA. In such a hypothetical scenario, Trump would be able to curb & counter Iran a hostile enemy of Israel in the Middle East, by the help of  Russia as well.

I don't have any doubt about the will & desire of Trump in this regard. Whether Putin would agree to play in this game of Trump or not is the important issue in this regard. The correct answer to this question in an extremely determinant factor in analysis about the new world order and occurrence of many events at regional and global levels in the next coming years.


M. Sirani                                16.07.2018  

An Important Question: Will Trump Pull Out of NATO?

Briefly:

As the president of the USA, Trump has the legitimate & legal authority to withdraw from NATO. Would Trump do that or not, depends on many issues & factors. This is a fact that without a powerful military wing, no super power or a powerful state has been able to either conquer the world or impose its hegemony on most parts of the world. There is no such an example in the entire history. So is the case of the USA under the presidency of Trump. In order to implement and impose his doctrine on most parts of the world, Trump needs a strong army. Would this desirable army be only NATO? For Trump the answer to this question is highly likely no. For Trump, the ends justify the means in an extremely Machiavellian Manner. We should bear in mind that for Trump, the EU & China are the serious threats and strong barrier, not Russia. When it comes to economic expansion, both China & the EU are trying to surpass the USA.

When it comes to military power, China is rising and some EU states are nuclear armed states. In comparison with China & the EU, Russia cannot pose a serious threat for Trump at this stage. Russia is a nuclear armed state and has powerful military apparatus. But, when it comes to economic power & economic expansion, Russia is not a serious threat for the USA and the way that Trump thinks. On the contrary, Russia has fast amount of natural resources, gas and oil, and is one of the main providers of these resources for China & the EU, two main barriers for Trump & his doctrine.

In my opinion, this is the main foundation of Trump's doctrine: Curbing, countering and controlling China & the EU. One of the main tools in order to achieve such a hegemonic position, is Russia. If Trump would be able to be allied with Russia, Trump can easily impose U.S. hegemony on China & the EU and accordingly preserve the U.S. hegemony at global level. In this respect, Trump would also try to use the UK. In addition, a close relationship with Russia at the level of my hypothetical scenario, would give Trump a strong hand with regards to fully curbing & countering Iran in the Middle East. Such an event, would collect enormous support for Trump from various directions from Israel and oil-rich Arab States.

To put it simply, i can say Trump will undoubtedly withdraw from NATO, if he would be able to make a good, certain & comprehensive deal with Putin & Russia. Should this happen, Trump would obtain the main sources of energy around the world (USA, Russia & Arab States), and by this tool, Trump can impose the U.S. hegemony on most parts of the world mainly China & the EU; two tough economic competitors. We should also bear in mind that in this regard, Trump would not be alone. There are many right wings political powers in the entire EU. Some of these states are currently member of NATO. In case of my hypothetical scenario, many of these states will undoubtedly join Trump army in a completely new military framework.  A type of hijacking NATO. 

Whether, Putin & Russia agree with this plan and follow Trump or not depends on many factor, beyond the scope of this brief explanation. The only thing that i can say is that there are many historical potentialities &possibilities for Putin & Russia at the present time, whether we like it or not.

M. Sirani               12.07.2018

The Plans of All State-Actors Involved in the Various Conflicts Across the Entire Middle East, Without Any Exception, Will Hit the Wall Somewhere in the Future. Let Me Use My Expertise & Extraordinary Talent in Conflict Resolution to Ease the Tension, Solve Some of these Conflicts & Prevent Further Disaster.

Brief:

The plans of the USA, Israel, Arab States, Iran & Russia with regards to various tensions & conflicts across the entire Middle East will hit the wall without any exception. This includes the two ongoing peace plans of the UN for Syria and Yemen as well. The only results of these ongoing conflicts would be more death, destruction, more refugees, displaced people and broader battlefield & nothing else.
Hereby this short note, i ask the international community to let me use my expertise and extraordinary talent in Conflict Resolution and ease the tension, solve some of the current conflicts and prevent further death, destruction and disastrous events for the entire Middle East and some parts of Africa. Let me use my EXTRAORDINARY TALENT and save the life of hundreds of thousands innocent people; before it's too late and we have reached the devastating point of no return in this regard.



M. Sirani                   09.07.2018

The EU Has Enough Potentiality & Capacity to Stabilize Our Chaotic World Partly Resulted From Trump's Wrong Policies. In Doing So, the Union Needs Some Fundamental & Structural Reforms First.

Briefly:

The EU has enough potentiality and capacity to play a major role as an effective super power at  global level. In order to reach such a point, the Union needs to perform some structural and fundamental reforms.

M. Sirani              01.07.2018 

I Repeat My Earlier Statement: When it Comes to North Korea, Trump Has Painted A Frog & Wants to Sell it to You As A Lamborghini.

Briefly:

There are multiple reasons behind this move. Among them:
1- Encouraging the EU and some other states to withdraw from JCPOA & put extra pressure on Iran.
2- Milking many states around the world from Arab States to South Korea and Japan.
3- Using this event as a leverage in curbing, countering China in different terms including trade dispute.
etc etc.

M. Sirani                      01.07.2018

Warning: Don't Be Fooled; Our Contemporary World Has Many Similarities With the World Between 1930 And 1940. Stop Trump ASAP; Before It's Too Late.

Let Me Know, When You Seriously Get Tired of Failure, Death & Destruction Across the Middle East. By Implementing A Master Plan Consists of Some Subset Plans, I Would Be Able To Clean Up the Mess Across the Region.

Trump & Kim Jong-Un Summit: A Great Victory For North Korea, China & Russia. As i Said Earlier: When it Comes to North Korea, Trump Has Painted a Frog & Wants to Sell it to You As A Lamborghini.

When it comes to the international relations & politics, like many other issues, Trump is a novice, inexperienced and poor soap opera actor.



M. Sirani      12.06.2018

Warning: I Emphasize on My Previous Statement: When It Comes to North Korea, Trump Has Painted A FROG And Wants to Sell it to You As A Lamborghini. Some Shallow Minded People Might Buy It; But Not Me.

The Beginning of the End of Globalization Era Has Been Triggered.

Warning: D. Trump Wants to Develop A Bipolar World System; Wherein the USA is At its Center in Different Terms. Based on Many Reasons Including Trump's Characteristics, This is A Very Dangerous Move For the Entire International Community.

Briefly:
Part of the reason that Trump wants to reinstate Russia to G7 could be understood in this regard. By using Russia as a tool, Trump wants to A- Curb & counter China (in terms of energy, natural resources and security (Possibly paralyzing Shanghai Treaty), B- Curbing & countering the EU (in terms of energy & security) and C- Curbing & countering Iran. Trump is moving in a very dangerous direction in this regard based on many reasons. The world should stop Trump, before it's too late.

M. Sirani          08.06.2018 

What Did Trump & Pompeo Give (Bribe) North Korea For Releasing Those 3 American Prisoners? (Find the Answer & Shatter Trump's Self-Proclaimed Master Deal Breaker.).

Briefly:
The real story of North Korea negotiation is not what Trump administration claims. Trump might be able to fool some people; but not me.

M. Sirani                 25.05.2018     

Mike Pompeo Speech; the 12 Demands Given To Iran (If You Ask These Demands From A Failed State Like Current Libya, You Will Hear a Negative Response). GOOD LUCK.

Briefly:

I'm totally against the Iranian Regime. But as these demands show, Trump administration does not have a clear knowledge about the Iranian regime & its capabilities. These demands are a type of declaration of war on Iran. 


M. Sirani                     21.05.2018 

Trump's North Korea Echo Chamber Is Collapsing.

When It Comes to The International Relations & International Politics, D. Trump is An Extremely Poor & Inexperienced Soap Opera Actor (Time Will Prove My Statement (13.05.2018).

New Trick of Trump To Totally Paralyze the JCPOA. Would The EU Fall in Trump's Trap or Not?

Briefly:

If you follow the news, you would probably observe that Trump, his administration and media supporters would enormously exaggerate about various events related to nuclear issue in North Korea. As an example, North Korea has recently decided to dismantle a nuclear test site in the next coming days. Trump praised this move on Twitter. Various media supporters of Trump praised this move and claimed that Trump should get credit, etc.

What is the main story?
North Korea has decided to dismantle the nuclear test site. This move has, in reality, nothing to do with Trump and his approach toward North Korea. This nuclear test site is unusable due to excessive test and is on the verge of total collapse according to many reports including from some Chinese geologists. In addition, we should bear in mind that North Korea developed nuclear weapon to defend itself against a foreign threat like the USA. The country has developed its security weapon. It does not need a nuclear test site. Because, North Korea does not want to compete with the super powers in terms of nuclear weapon; the way that Russia and the USA for example do to be able to compete with each other. But Trump and his supporters would exaggerate about this issue and some other moves in North Korea just for one reason. They want to convince the EU to withdraw from the JCPOA. By these types of exaggerations, Trump team wants to tell the EU that look at North Korea. Due to tough stand and rhetoric of Trump, North Korea has started to dismantle its nuclear facilities. If you (the EU) would withdraw from the JCPOA, we can force Iran to sign a better nuclear deal. This is the main trick of Trump for the EU. Would the EU fall in Trump's trap in this regard or not?


M. Sirani           13.05.2018 

The Possible Final Results of Trump's Approach Toward North Korea; A Trilogy. (Trump is A Soap Opera Actor Addicted to Exaggeration).

Briefly:

Regarding the upcoming USA & North Korea negotiations, three scenarios are possible. These scenarios are as follows:

A- The Scenario 1: North Korea would hand over its nuclear arsenals to China or a legitimate international body such as IAEA and stop further development of any nuclear weapon & ballistic missile. In return, China would provide a nuclear-defensive umbrella for North Korea in case of any foreign aggressor. The USA, in return, would guarantee the security of North Korea and would lift the sanctions, etc through a comprehensive peace treaty.


B- The Scenario 2: Trump is a soap opera actor addicted to unlimited exaggeration. There are numerous examples that Trump has extremely exaggerated in order to project himself as a smarter, richer, more powerful, stronger, etc individuals. Part of the reason that Trump does not reveal his tax return lies in this matter. His tax return would reveal that Trump is not so rich as he claims. Based on such a mentality, Trump might have come to the conclusion that North Korea is a nuclear armed state and he has some limited options. Either a nuclear war with North Korea or accept a nuclear armed North Korea with some superficial changes. In this scenario, North Korea would not further develop any nuclear weapon; it keeps some of its nuclear weapon (Secret from the eyes of the international community); It would superficially and apparently dismantle some parts of its nuclear weapons and nuclear plants, test sites. By these events, North Korea "has apparently given up its nuclear arsenals". The USA, in return, would lift some sanctions and might offer North Korea some type of incentive support. In this scenario, the conflict in Korean Peninsula has been solved peacefully. North Korea would be satisfied. Trump would trumpet that he has solved the conflict in Korean Pennisula and might get a political Oscar (Nobel Peace Prize) for his show. The USA would preserve its reputation at global level, that "it has not allowed that North Korea would remain a nuclear armed state" etc.

C- The Scenario 3: North Korea is buying time for further development of its nuclear arsenals & ballistic missile program or something else.


M. Sirani                 12.05.2018



The New Trick of Trump to Totally Paralyze the JCPOA. Would the EU Fall in Trump's Trap in This Regard? 

Briefly:

If you follow the news, you would probably observe that Trump, his administration and media supporters would enormously exaggerate about various events related to nuclear issue in North Korea. As an example, North Korea has recently decided to dismantle a nuclear test site in the next coming days. Trump praised this move on Twitter. Various media supporters of Trump praised this move and claimed that Trump should get credit, etc.

What is the main story?
North Korea has decided to dismantle the nuclear test site. This move has, in reality, nothing to do with Trump and his approach toward North Korea. This nuclear test site is unusable due to excessive test and is on the verge of total collapse according to many reports including from some Chinese geologists. In addition, we should bear in mind that North Korea developed nuclear weapon to defend itself against a foreign threat like the USA. The country has developed its security weapon. It does not need a nuclear test site. Because, North Korea does not want to compete with the super powers in terms of nuclear weapon; the way that Russia and the USA for example do to be able to compete with each other. But Trump and his supporters would exaggerate about this issue and some other moves in North Korea just for one reason. They want to convince the EU to withdraw from the JCPOA. By these types of exaggerations, Trump team wants to tell the EU that look at North Korea. Due to tough stand and rhetoric of Trump, North Korea has started to dismantle its nuclear facilities. If you (the EU) would withdraw from the JCPOA, we can force Iran to sign a better nuclear deal. This is the main trick of Trump for the EU. Would the EU fall in Trump's trap in this regard or not?


M. Sirani           13.05.2018 

       

By Withdrawing From the JCPOA, Trump Opened the Pandora's Box in the Middle East. Last Night Direct Military Confrontation Between Israel & Iran in Syria Was Just the Beginning

Nigerian Army Freed 1000 Hostages (Based on Many Reasons, Nigerian Army is Unable To Do That. Either, Buhari Government Has Done Another Prisoner Swap With Boko Haram or Erik. Prince's Private Army Has Done This Task). In Short, The Situation in Nigeria is Critical. Any Instability in Nigeria With the Population Size of More Than 180 Million, Would Cause a Huge Disaster For Many in Different Terms.

As It Appears Trump is Stuck in Case of the JCPOA. He Sees Iran Has Not Bought His Bluff. Trump Might Refer the Case of JCPOA To the Congress One More Time and At the Meantime Impose Some Peripheral Sanctions on Iran Looking Forward to Start A Negotiation With Iran Somewhere in the Future (There is Some Possibility in This Regard).

By Implementation of A Master Plan Consisted of Some Subset Plans, We Can Ease the Tension and Solve Some of the Current Conflicts in The Middle East.

Warning: The Entire Middle East And Some Parts of Africa Are Pregnant With An Ominous Creature; While The Entire World is Calmly and Naively Just Watching.

Warning: Deploying An Arab-Coalition Force To Syria Means Creating A "Hobbesian Society" i.e. "The War of All Against All" Across the Middle East & Some Parts of Africa (Those Geniuses Behind This Plan Should Think Twice).

Don't Expect so Many Miracles From the Upcoming USA - North Korea Negotiations; Although Many Good News Are Currently Flying Out of North Korea.

Creating An Arab NATO Will Highly Likely Fail Based on Many Reasons (Arab NATO A Clear Mirror Imaging).

Warning: Withdrawal of U.S. Troops from Syria And Replacing Them With A Coalition Army of Some Arab States Means Turning the Syrian Civil-Proxy War Into A Broad Interstate War Across the Middle East (Think Twice).

Warning: The Syrian Civil War-Proxy War is On the Verge of Becoming An Interstate War. The Overall Negative Consequences of Such A Move Will Undoubtedly Hit Many Actors At National, Regional And Global Levels.

OPCW Should Have a Comparison Between the Type of Nerve Agent, Which Was Used in Assassination of the Brother of Kim Jong-Un in Malaysian Airport and the Nerve Agent, Which Has Been Used in Salisbury. Some Actor/s Might Have Orchestrated a Set Up for Some Other Target.

The World Would Never Be the Same in Different Terms, If the Upcoming Negotiations Between Trump and Kim Jong-Un Would Fail.

A Warning For All: Don't Fall in the Destructive Quagmire in the Middle East. At the End of Such A Hypothetical Tragic Scenario, No Matter How Long It Will Take, Some Actors Will Be Forced to Leave the Middle East At Least For Foreseeable Future. The Geo-Political Face of the Middle East Will Dramatically Change Following Such A Horrific Event.

Warning: D. Trump is Forming A "War Cabinet". Tom Cotton Will Highly Likely Join Trump Administration in the Near Future. In Short: All Plans With Regards to Many Issues Including JCPOA, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, North Korea & Ukraine Need Reevaluation.

Warning: Desperate How to Deal With Iran & Hezbollah, Lebanon Has Become An Imminent Target For Some Actors.

Warning: The Next Battlefield Between Iran and Saudi-Led Coalition Might Be in Oman.

Possibly The next Battlefield somewhere in the future.

M. Sirani                         29.01.2018

Declaring Jerusalem As the Capital of Israel is the First Step of A Bigger Plan; Relocating Palestinian People to Sinai Peninsula.

Briefly:

An old plan has resurfaced on the table of The USA, Israel, Egypt & Saudi Arabia. According to this secret deal, Palestinian people would be settled in Sinai Peninsula and Egypt would receive $84 billion dollars partly from Saudi Arabia, Israel & USA in return for this plan.
This plan would not solve the Israeli & Palestinian conflict in an effective, fundamental & sustainable manner. On the contrary, this plan, in case of further implementation, would create more chaos & tension across the Islamic countries.

Note: Antidote for this wrong plan at First Step: Declaring Independent State of Palestine and East Jerusalem as its Capital by the UN, Arab League or Organization of Islamic Cooperation.


M. Sirani                       09.12.2017  

Would Israel Share Part of Jerusalem With Palestinian Authority- People At the End of the Possible Peace Deal as Trump's Speech Projects? (I Don't Think So).

Briefly:

In his speech today about Jerusalem, President Trump said: "We want an agreement that is a great deal for the Israelis and a great deal for the Palestinians. We are not taking a position of any final status issues including the specific boundaries of the Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem or the resolution of contested borders. Those questions are up to the parties involved" (Worldnews, 2017).

Following this speech some in the media have interpreted this paragraph of Trump's speech as an open hatch, which indicates that there is some possibility that Israel would share some part of Jerusalem with Palestinians at the end of a possible peace deal. This issue raises an important question as follows: Would Israel share some part of its officially recognized capital Jerusalem with Palestinian authority & people at the end of a possible peace deal in the future?

My answer to this question is a big NO. Some might wonder why? This is the story. If president Trump & current Israeli government wanted to truly & honestly offer such an opportunity to Palestinians somewhere in the future, Trump could explain his deep intention in this regard with better phrase. Instead of this paragraph noted above, Trump could simply say: I declare half of Jerusalem as the official capital of Israel and other half of Jerusalem as the official capital of Palestinian State, which would be officially recognized after the final peace deal with Israel. By a paragraph like this, Trump & Israeli government could show their trustworthy & honesty to the Palestinian authority & people and by this move they encourage Palestinians to participate the peace deal negotiations much better than before.

In my opinion, the main reason behind this paragraph is not facilitating an opportunity for Palestinian people & Israel would not share part of its capital Jerusalem with anybody else not now not in the future. The main reasons of Trump behind this paragraph are as follows:

A- Killing the time for continuation of a futile peace process.

B- Deceiving Palestinians, Arab States, etc to continue with a peace negotiations, hoping to get some part of Jerusalem at the end of a possible peace deal in the future, which would in reality not happen.

C- Unilaterally deceleration of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is a clear violation of the international laws & the UN resolution. By using this paragraph and accordingly encouraging Palestinian to participate in the negotiations for a peace deal, the USA & Israel would try to undermine & mitigate the global condemnation & overall backlashes in different terms with regard to this illegal move that they did today.

D- This deceleration has already caused enormous anger among Muslim states & non-state actors around the world. Some of these states & non-state actors would try to retaliate in different terms in response to this move. An ongoing peace deal negotiations might prevent some states & non-state actors to perform some harsh & violently reaction against the USA & Israel.

These are the main reasons behind this part of Trump's speech. As i said in the beginning of this short note, the chance that Israel would voluntarily share some part of its capital with Palestinian people somewhere in the future is nearly impossible. If they wanted, they could have declared it today.


M. Sirani                       06.12.2017       






Reference: http://www.worldnews.easybranches.com/regions/middle-east/full-video-and-transcript-trump-s-speech-recognizing-jerusalem-as-the-capital-of-israel-508874

Moving The U.S. Embassy To Jerusalem. What Might Be The Main Reasons Behind This Possible Move?

Briefly:

The overall negative consequences of this move in a chaotic & volatile region like the current Middle East are Chrystal clear & needless to explore. That's why, since 1995 that this "Jerusalem Embassy Act" was passed by the 104th Congress, none of the U.S. presidents executed this act. Considering this brief introduction, there are some rumors that Trump administration might declare Jerusalem as the capital of Israel & consequently moves the U.S. Embassy to this city. This issue raises an important questions as follows: What might be the main reasons behind this possible move?

Based on my knowledge about president Trump, the overall moves of his administration and some other ongoing events within the USA & the Middle East, i have come to the following possible reasons in this regard.

A- The First Possible Reason: Trump's Weaknesses: 
Contrary to what president Trump & some of his followers claim, D. Trump does not have a proper knowledge & understanding about foreign affairs & generally speaking how the foreign policy and the role of a super power like the USA at regional & global level should be. In addition to this weakness, D. Trump has another big problem and that is his attitude that he wants to govern the state the way that he has run his business. This attitude means that due to the fact that Trump is the boss or the president, he knows better than others and everybody around him should accept & follow his order no matter what. The combination of these two characteristics have caused many chaos, misunderstanding & mistakes performed by Trump administration around the world. In order to mitigate these weaknesses, D. Trump has different techniques. One of them is "spreading rumor about something that he might do or not do in the near future".
By spreading the rumor about some event that might happen or not happen in the near future, many politicians & pundits would react. D. Trump & his close allies go through all comments & critics & try to choose the best option & accordingly perform less mistakes. The current rumor about moving U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem might be partly due to this reason.
D. Trump uses this technique in another occasion and that is when he wants to impose his idea or opinion forcefully & indirectly on one of his cabinet members & advisers or he is not satisfied with them based on any reason whatsoever. In this respect, the case of replacement of S. R. Tillerson with M. Pompeo is a good example. The rumor in this regard, forced S. Tillerson to suddenly leave the State Department & go to the White House. We have seen such a trick in case of S. J. Sessions couple of months ago as well.

B- The Second Possible Reason: Good Cop-Bad Cop policy-Trump's Model: 
D. Trump and his hotshot son-in-law without any experience in foreign policy & foreign affairs have decided to make a peace deal between Israel & Palestine. This is not an easy task specially for these two gentlemen. They have probably hit the wall at the present time. That's why, D. Trump has spread the rumor in this regard and would try by using this leverage, would force the Palestinian authority & some in Arab states to accept whatever Trump administration dictates throughout the entire peace process. Or this move might be a some type of blackmail. As it appears the Gulf States have a plan to create An Arab NATO. By a rumor about moving U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, Trump wants to indirectly force the Arab States to buy all their necessary military weapons & equipment for this matter from the USA and not other powerful competitors such as the EU, China or Russia.
A type of invisible Coercion in all these cases mentioned above. This might be one of the main reasons behind this possible move.

C- The Third Possible Reason: Domestic Problem At Home: 
Whether anyone within Trump administration, close allies or campaign have intentionally or unintentionally coordinated or cooperated with Russian authority or some wealthy Russian individuals are unclear issue to me at least up until this moment. But one thing is clear for me & that is that the Russian finger prints (Governmental or non-governmental or both are unknown for me) in 2016 U.S. election are clearly visible. This allegation has caused & would cause huge problem for Trump administration in the future as well. In such a desperate situation, declaring Jerusalem as the capital of Israel might be a great help. The declaration in this regard would mobilize the entire powerful Israeli lobby behind D. Trump and accordingly would strengthen and empower his position in this internal battle. This might be one of the main reasons behind this possible move.

D- The Fourth Reason: Business:
There is an allegation against General Flynn that he wanted to secretly promote a plan to build some nuclear plants across the Middle East. This was a collective plan between American, Russian, French & Israeli companies. According to Wall Street Journal, "The plan was projected to generate $250 billion in revenue for U.S. companies".   
We all know Kushner's company is in a very difficult financial problem. The Building 666 in New York & the huge debt of this building that like Guillotine has stood above the neck of Kushners is known for the entire world. Considering these issues, there might be a very fat & beneficial business contract behind the scene. Therefore Trump administration & J. Kushner want to declare Jerusalem the capital of Israel to benefit from such a economic deal, which some Jewish Israeili or American are possibly involved like the case of nuclear plants of General Flynn. This might one of the main reasons behind this possible move.

As i said from the beginning of this brief explanation, the overall negative consequences of this move whether in the peace process between Israeli & Palestinian authority or in the Middle East or generally speaking among 1.5 billion Muslims around the world are Chrystal clear. Some might claim that Trump would do this move in order to keep his promise during the election or empower the position of his favorite candidate in upcoming Alabama election. In response to these arguments i should say that there is no doubt that this move would cover these issues to some extent. But we should bear in mind that there have been numerous examples in the past year presidency that Trump has tried to broke some of his promises.
During the election, for example, Trump said he would not tough medicaid & medicare for poor & low income families. Moreover Trump said he would not deport the dreamers (DACA ACT). Furthermore he said, he would not deport illegal immigrants if they have not done any criminal activities. A simple review about Trump's resume in the past year shows that D. Trump has multiple times tried to break his promises in these regards & or at least undermine the legitimacy of these rules. When it comes to empowering the position of the Republican candidate in upcoming election in Alabama, Trump could perform some other moves with less backlash & negative consequences. Thus, these types of shallow arguments cannot justify such a move with such huge consequences specially at the time that Trump & his son-in-law are struggling to achieve a historical credit with regard to make a peace deal between Israel & Palestine. However, as far as i analyze this rumor, i don't see any other reason for such a wrong move at the present time; except one of the reasons mentioned above or the combination of some of them.



Note: Some in Israel are happy about this news that Trump might declare Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. This people don't know about the overall impact of this move, current situation of the Middle East & many other future events. Today is not 1948, nor is 1967 And the future events of the Middle East do not move in the direction of those GOLDEN YEARS. In short, if i was an Israeli citizen & loved my state, i wouldn't be happy about this move specially at this particular time based on many reasons.






M. Sirani                   03.12.2017

 

An Antidote For Possible Plot in Lebanon (A Solution).

Briefly:


As an Iranian in exile, i'm totally against the Iranian Regime & its proxies. However, based on my analysis about overall consequences & side effects of this plan (Destabilization of Lebanon, South of Syria, etc etc), i have come to some reasonable conclusions as follows.
Based on my analysis, this plan not only do not mitigate & weaken the position of Iran & Hezbollah in both Syria & Lebanon, on the contrary, it would strengthen & empower them in the region. In addition, this plan, in terms of implementation, would cause a huge destruction, large number of collateral damages and hundreds of thousands or probably millions refugees & displaced people around the entire Middle East or maybe more in some parts of Africa as well.
Due to this analysis, i believe as an ordinary human being, this is my responsibility to prevent such a disaster as much as i can. Here below is one of my solutions for preventing such a disaster in the Middle East.

A well- organized & inclusive national rally in the entire Lebanon demanding Hariri's return to the country would to a large extent dismantle the possible plot in Lebanon. This rally should repeatedly continue until S. Hariri would return back to Lebanon & save the country from another useless, bloody & devastating war & civil war.



M. Sirani                        12.11.2017

Warning: Those, Who Have Planned to Destabilize Lebanon Hoping to Defeat Hezbollah & Undermine Iran's Role in Lebanon, Should Not Once or Twice, But Also Multiple Times Reevaluate Their Plan in This Regard.

Briefly:

Undoubtedly, any attempt in this regard, would cause a broad destruction, couple of hundreds of thousands or probably millions displaced refugees and large numbers of collateral damages. But this attempt not only would not achieve its main objectives i.e. destroying Hezbollah & the influence of Iran; on the contrary would empower & strengthen the position of Iran & Hezbollah at home & abroad. Such an attempt, in addition, would undoubtedly change the face of the Middle East in the benefit of Iran.

Note: A quick review in this blog, clearly shows that I'm among those Iranians in exile, who strongly, reasonably & logically believe that the Iranian regime cannot, will not & shall not accept, tolerate and perform any tangible reform somewhere in the future based on its inherent & structural characteristics. Based on these special inherent & structural characteristics, A simple reform in the Iranian regime would cause the sudden & total collapse of this regime exactly like those "Perestroika & Glasnost" reforms of M. Gorbachev, which led to the total collapse of the Soviet Union & its bloc. As such, in my opinion, this regime should be overthrown without any doubt. But, based on my analysis about various factors with regards to this possible event, i can tell you by high level of certainty that such a plan would end up into a catastrophic fiasco & accordingly, the Iranian regime & its allies would be the final winners of this plot. My suggestion: reevaluate your plan in this regard not once or twice but also multiple times. Because this plan, in terms of implementation, would cost you a lot more than damaging the Iranian regime & its proxies. 


M. Sirani                        11.11.2017     

Warning: Following the Blockade of Yemen, Houthis Might Paralyze the Ship Routes in the Gulf of Aden or Bab-El-Mandeb Strait By Their Missiles & Rockets.

Briefly:
As I Said in 2015, Yemen is A Quagmire Worse Than Afghanistan or Syria. The country is currently suffering from all kinds of disaster such as famine, lake of food, water, medicine & different types of diseases such as cholera. The recent imposed blockade puts the life of millions innocent people at serious risk. This horrific condition would force the Houthis to react in every possible manner they can. I have said this in 2015 & say it again: The Houthis can paralyze the ship routes in the Gulf of Aden, Bab-El-Mandeb Stait & the Red Sea by their missiles & Rockets. We should bear in mind that Bab-El-Mandeb Strait is nearly 30 km wide and is one of the most strategic routes in the world.
Once again, i repeat my previous statement: Yemen conflict would not be solved by military operation.


M. Sirani                          08.11.2017 

Petro-Yuan Means The Beginning of the End of U.S. Dollar Supremacy.

Brief:

China will introduce Petro-Yuan as early as the end of this year. This issue will undoubtedly hit the U.S. economy in various terms, forms & scales. In this respect, the U.S. stock market might highly likely be the first victim. The second victim might be U.S. based Cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin. These sectors have unrealistically expanded in the past couple of months.The bubble will explode sooner or later.

Note: We are on the verge of a huge development in economic & financial arena at global level; while today, President Trump asks Saudis to list Saudi Aramco on the New York Stock Exchange.
Saudi Arabia might choose Dual Listing. But the idea that Saudi Arabia put all its eggs in the basket of the USA (Only New York Stock Exchange) like before, is far from the reality. Because Saudis know time has changed; they know also that many other factors around the world have changed. In addition, we should bear in mind that China might force Saudi Arabia to trade the oil with Petro-Yuan. Should this happen, the U.S. economy will suffer a lot.

We are in fact, in the transitional phase of rise & fall of empires. 


M. Sirani                     04.11.2017

Yemeni's Defense Ministry states that "attack was conducted using a Yemeni-made long-range ballistic missile called the Burqan 2H".

Briefly:

If this claim is true, it means a lot. It means a major shift in the balance of power & a breakthrough in Yemeni conflict. This development is a serious game changer, if this claim is true. 


M. Sirani                 04.11.2017                   

Those GENIUSES, Who Thought I Was Joking in 2011, Are Now in 2017, Confused How to Deal With Yemeni Quagmire (I Refresh Your Memories).

For refreshing your memories, i suggest to read the following essay one more time with more precision & caution.

Essay: Iran should not get the nuclear bomb.

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.no/2014/11/iran-should-not-get-nuclear-bomb.html



M. Sirani                    04.11.2017 

China Unveiled Its Magic Island-Maker (Long Term Plan).

Briefly:

As Russia Today news agency (RT) claims the vessel can "smash underwater rocks and then suck out sand, water, and mud, and transfer the substance up to 15 kilometers away. It can dredge up to 6,000 cubic meters (around two and half Olympic swimming pools) an hour from a depth of up to 35 meters"(Rt, 2017).

This vessel is a revolutionary monster & along with Floating Nuclear Power Plant constructed by China (And Russia as well), show that China has a very long term plan in many fronts including building various artificial islands across the globe. We should not be Einstein to predict some of the consequences & overall side effects of this move in different terms, forms & scales in the future.


M. Sirani                    04.11.2017

Reference: Magic Island-Maker (2017) in: https://www.rt.com/news/408794-island-maker-dredger-china/

Does China Want to Build A Naval Base in Rakhine or A New Artificial Island Close to Rakhine Province in Myanmar At the Cost of 1 Million Innocent Rohingya people?

Briefly:

I don't have access to comprehensive & sensitive data. But my logic tells me that expelling couple of hundreds thousands Rohingya people in a very short period of time is a very big responsibility for every state including Myanmar. Myanmar authority has taken the chance to ruin its reputation in exchange for a very big & juicy project. This might be one of the main reasons of this horrific humanitarian disaster, as Chinese UN envoy invites the international community to be patient with regard to the horrific case of nearly 1 million displaced Rohingya people.




M. Sirani                          3.11.2017

Warning: Petro-Yuan will Enter the Global Market As Early As End of This Year. This Even Might Highly Likely Hit the U.S. Stock Market.The Bubble Has Expanded Unrealistically in the Past Couple of Months & Weeks.

Bitcoin & some other U.S. based financial entities will be highly likely hit by this event.


M. Sirani                    28.10.2017

The Reflection of Thucydides's Peloponnesian War in Current Iraqi Kurdistan.

Briefly:

Kurdish authority has told Iraqi GOV that it is freezing the referendum & independence movement & is ready to negotiate with Baghdad. In response to this call, H. Al- Ebadi in Tehran has said that the Kurds should totally cancel referendum & independence and comply with country's constitution.

The demand of H. Al-Ebadi has put Barzani in a very difficult position with only two limited options as follows.

Option A- Barzani  accepts Ebadi's demand & fully retreat. By this move, Barzani will commit political suicide and will ruin its reputation among all Kurds.

Option B: Barzani rejects Ebadi's demand & continues with his demand for Kurdistan. By choosing this move, Kurdistan will face a total war from every angles.

The whole this event is similar to some part of Peloponnesian War of Thucydides. ",,,, Obey our demand or face a devastating defeat,,,,," or in Qasem Soleimani's words to PUK leadership:

“Withdraw or risk losing Tehran as a strategic ally. Abadi has all the regional powers and the West behind him and nothing will stop him from forcing you to return back to the mountains if he decides so,”. 


Note: The chance that Barzani will remain in Iraq is very low. Iran & Iraqi GOV will not let him to have a pleasant future In Iraq. He might flee to Israel or one of the western countries for the rest of his life. Wrong move at wrong time at wrong place. 


M. Sirani                            26.10.2017 

The Primary Goals of Iran & Iraqi Gov in Kurdistan.

Briefly: By a single miscalculated move, Barzani destroyed what the Kurds had achieved throughout some decades struggle. There is some probability that Barzani would flee to either Israel or one of the western countries. Iran & Iraqi Gov would no let him to have a pleasant future in Iraq. 

It seems Iraqi Gov & Iran are currently pursuing three goals in Iraqi Kurdistan. These goals are:

A- Removing Barzani from the power & replacing him with a trustworthy person. In this respect, Talibani's son has a good chance.

B- Paralyzing economic Independence of Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraqi Gov & Iran would try to recapture the control of all oil & gas fields in Kurdistan & put an end to couple of years dispute between Iraqi central government and Kurdish authority.

C- Recapturing the border lines between Iraqi Kurdistan & Syria- Turkey in order to:  A- impose an idea that Iraqi Kurdistan is located within Iraq; it is an inseparable part of Iraq territory & B- Have full control about import & export to & from Kurdistan.

This policy would be applied to Kurdistan area in Syria as well; maybe not now, but it will be. In this respect, the four states of Iran, Iraq, Syria & Turkey would coordinate & cooperate with each other perfectly.

Note: The U.S. plan that Syrian Kurds would capture oil field in Syria; using its income; consequently weakening Assad's regime; etc etc, will hit the wall.

As i have repeatedly said this before: The U.S. plan to create a semi-federalism political system in Syria (Kurds in North, Shiite people in the Middle along with Assad's supporters & Sunnis in the South/ Weakening Assad's regime/ Creating safe/buffer-zone in the South of Syria for Israel, etc etc-  Kissinger's proposal) does not work in Syria based on many reasons. In addition, Iran would not allow such a plan would be implemented.



M. Sirani              26.10.2017

Warning: The U.S. Republican Party Is In A Very Critical Position.

Briefly:

I was among those few people, who predicted a Republican would be the president (in 2014-2015) and anticipated that D. Trump would become the president (2016) (Various short notes in this blog confirm my statement in this regard).

Based on what i have observed about Trump administration, the policies and the attitude of president Trump himself in the past 10 months, i can argue that the Republican Party is in a very critical position and is left with two options as follows.

A- Following Trump administration's statements & policies with closed eyes without any objection: In this way, the Republican Party would ruin its reputation and would damage the USA in different terms.

B- Standing up against wrong policies & statements of president Trump & his administration: By choosing this option, the Republican Party might be able to save the USA & the Republican Party in different terms.


Note: The biggest problem of president Trump: This is a fact that D. Trump is not an expert in many issues for example International Relations or Micro-Macroeconomics like many other presidents or prime ministers around the world. I don't blame him in this regard. He is expert in another area, which i'm not. The point is that most of the leaders around the world pay attention to their advisers in many areas. But president Trump not. He wants to run the united State & the rest of the world in a way that he was running his business empire. This is a very dangerous trend. This issue would highly likely cause a huge problem at domestic as well as foreign affairs not only for the USA and American people but also for the rest of the world. Due to the fact that the USA is a super power and every move of the USA would impact the remote areas around the world.

President Trump should understand this basic fact: Running a state and running a business empire have many similarities; at the same time there are huge differences between these two concepts. A single mistake in this regard would be catastrophic for many.  I have posted the following note multiple times for President Trump on Twitter:
"Running a state is not like running a business empire. They have some similarities. But they have huge differences). 




M. Sirani         24.10.2017

The Kurdish Referendum In Iraq Means the Starting Point For a Long Term Multidimensional Conflicts in Iraq & Probably in Syria As Well.

Briefly:

This event will unify the four political systems in Iran, Iraq, Syria & Turkey against all Kurds in the region. In other words, someone like President Erdogan will shake hand to his former enemy Bashar Assad to crush the Kurds. This event might highly likely force Turkey to deploy more troops to Iraq & Syria; a type of military invasion, depends on the scale of tension; if it is needed. This event, in addition, will empower the position of Iran & Russia and on the contrary will weaken the position of NATO in the region. Simply, because it will increase the level of cooperation between Turkey and the East.


Note: Iraq & probably Syria will highly likely become clear examples of  "Hobbesian Society: The war of all against all"; a multidimensional conflict. 

M. Sirani             21.09.2017

Warning: Like A Black Hole, A Military Confrontation With North Korea Will Suck Many Countries Into the Conflict.

Briefly:

By this, i mean in addition to the USA, South Korea, Japan & North Korea, many other countries will undoubtedly & inevitably involve in such a conflict. If we evaluate various aspects of this conflict, we will come to the conclusion that there are many similar factors between the First World War & a possible war with North Korea.


M. Sirani           18.09.2017 

M. Saakashvili Entered Ukraine. Is This A Starting Point For A Coup Or Beginning A New Civil War in the Western Part of Ukraine?

Briefly:

This is a fact that without some external & internal supporters, M. Saakashvili couldn't & didn't go to Ukraine. Whether this is a temporary event like an attempt for coup to remove P. Poroshenko from the power or a starting point of a long term event like a new civil war in the Western part of Ukraine are hard to predict at this stage. But there is something clear and that is that Ukraine will highly likely experience a series of internal chaos & instability in the next coming days, weeks & possibly months. The emergence of such an event along with today's event indicate a simple fact that current political system in Ukraine has a very shaky & vulnerable foundation. To put it simply, the political system in Ukraine needs some fundamental & constructive reform & adjustment. Otherwise, the instability & chaos in Ukraine will hit the EU & NATO in various terms, forms & scales based on numerous reasons in the future.


Note: I can guess, who is/are the possible external actor/s and what they possibly are pursuing in this attempt. But i don't have any credible & reliable evidence to underpin my argument in this regard. I leave this issue aside. Because, I don't like my short note would be labeled with "Conspiracy Theory".   


M. Sirani                         10.09.2017

Warning: A Military Confrontation With North Korea:

Briefly:

When a political system is unable to deal with some challenges at home, a war with a foreign adversary would become a tasty option & scapegoat.
I warn you about any military confrontation with North Korea. Such an event will be the most horrific, devastating & destructive historical event since the Second World War in every possible terms for many countries around the world including the USA.
In case of such an event the USA might militarily win the war. But the overall negative consequences of such a war will deeply damage the USA in many fronts. Among the consequences of such a war three events are inevitable.

A- Due to massive destruction & collateral damages, the ordinary people in South Korea & Japan will undoubtedly force their political systems to shut down all U.S. bases and demand the total withdrawal of U.S. troops from their countries.

B- Following this horrific event, Japan and South Korea will develop their own nuclear weapons.

C- The U.S. global supremacy, which has been built based on some victories in the Second World War & Cold War era will be badly crushed for ever following this war. This simply means the beginning of the end of supremacy & domination of the USA in many fronts at regional & global level.

In short, the occurrence of such a disastrous war, many issues around the world at global and regional level will change in an extreme and sudden manner. Most of these changes will not be pleasant for USA & some of its close allies. To put it simply, we will enter a totally new era in many fronts.


Note: What i explored above is just a scratch about this event. The overall negative consequences of such an event in different terms at regional and global level are much deeper & broader. 


M. Sirani                      05.09.2017 

The Case of Rohingya People in Myanmar is A Clear Genocide. Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize Committee Should Immediately Revoke The Nobel Peace Prize of Aung San Suu Kyi Before More Scandal Would Happen.

Aung San Suu Kyi the Mrs. Multiple Ministers Exploited Your Resources, Got Her Nobel Peace Prize and Now She is Showing You Her Middle Finger (The Case of Rohingya People Is a Clear Genocide; Stop Your Puppet ASP).

President Trump's New Strategy For Afghanistan: Following the Same Path of Previous Administrations With Some Different Military Tactics & Oral Statement. The Result Will Be The Same.

The Chance that President Trump Will Allow Iran Reach the Untouchable Position of North Korea in Terms of Nuclear Weapon & Ballistic Missile Program, is Very Low. In This Respect, the JCPOA is A Primary and Important Barrier.

The U.S. Special Forces in Libya (Another Quagmire, due to the Fact that the USA Does Not Have a Clear, Effective & Coherent Strategy With Regards to Many Issues in the Region).

How The Current Tension With North Korea Might Change The Reaction of Trump Administration With Regards to Iran & The JCPOA? (A Possibly Dangerous Situation).

Briefly: (This short note has been written in 15 min without editing, etc etc).

This is a fact that the recent nuclear and ballistic missile activities along with planning to launch some missile toward Guam (A U.S. Territory) by North Korea have put the Trump administration in a very critical position. According to some analysis, North Korea has so far obtained between 50-60 nuclear bombs and its recent activities show that the country has had a rapid progress on its ballistic missile program as well. To put it simply, North Korea has achieved a capability to hit many places in the USA by its nuclear-ballistic missiles. This issue has put the USA in a very critical situation. The Trump administration cannot simply ignore the recent activities and the threat of North Korea. At the same time, trying to solve this complicated issue through a type of preemptive strike could be costly in different terms not only for the USA and North Korea, but also for some other countries in the South East Asia due to the nuclear & ballistic missile capability of both the USA & North Korea.

Whether the USA & North Korea would ease the tension and solve this conflict through diplomacy or the rhetoric wars between Washington & Pyongyang would end up into a devastating military confrontation are beyond the scope of this short writing. But this tension would lead us to another important issue and that is the JCPOA; the nuclear deal with Iran.

As we all know, whether during the presidential race or his presidency, Donald. Trump has repeatedly mentioned that the JCPOA is the worst deal ever that the USA has made. In addition, President Trump has stated in many occasions that he would like to tear up the deal. The recent tension with North Korea and its complicated details, would undoubtedly put the Trump administration in another complicated position. The Trump administration would highly likely try to have a simple comparison between current North Korea and Iran. The administration might highly likely come to the following conclusions:
North Korea has nuclear bomb & ballistic missiles. Military strike against North Korea is dangerous, costly and cannot fundamentally change anything with regards to nuclear & ballistic missile capability of North Korea. North Korea has passed the red line for ever in this respect.

But, what about Iran? Apparently Iran has not obtained nuclear bomb yet. In addition, the ballistic missile program of Iran has not progressed as North Korean to cause a serious threat for the USA. But, if the time passes, Iran might highly likely pass the red line the same as North Korea after couple months or years. In such a hypothetical scenario, the USA cannot curb or counter Iran.
Based on this calculation, the Trump administration might highly likely tear up the JCPOA or launch a preemptive strike against Iran to prevent the country to reach the untouchable position of North Korea.

In short, the current tension with North Korea would undoubtedly impact the JCPOA and the policy of the Trump administration toward Iran in the near future.

M. Sirani                                11.08.2017
  

North Korea Has Threatened to Launch Military Strike Against Guam (The USA). Why NATO Does Not react Through a Short Statement???!!!

Briefly:

It seems some enjoy to see Trump administration is under pressure.


M. Sirani                   10.08.2017

The USA Has "One Last Option" to Solve the Problem With North Korea, Before Any Military Confrontation (I'm Not Sure Whether Trump Administration is Aware of That or Not).

Developing A New Grand Strategy For Asia & South East Asia Is A Necessary Move For the USA.

Briefly:

The USA has moved in a totally wrong direction in many areas since 1990. Otherwise, the country could have had a much better and stronger position at global level. In this respect, i have to admit that some ideas of both H. Kissinger & Z. Brzezinski have played an important role in this matter.  Cleaning up these messes, however, at this stage is not an easy task; but it is not impossible.

At the present time, the USA should develop a totally new Grand Strategy, which includes and covers some important issues such as A- The rise of China and its expansionist behavior in different terms, B- North Korea & its nuclear-ballistic missile activities, C- The rise & activities of various radical Islamic groups, and D- Curbing & countering drug cartels & drug trafficking.


Note: With some reactionary moves, you cannot deal with these critical issues in Asia. 

M. Sirani           09.08.2017                  

Merit-Based Immigration System Does Not Function in the USA (This is A Clear "Mirror Imaging" & Wrong Copy & Paste From Canada & Australia).

Briefly:

Merit-Based immigration system has functioned for some countries like Canada & Australia since some decades ago. But this system does not function in the USA based on numerous reasons. This is a clear Mirror Imaging and the USA will suffer a lot in different terms in the next couple of years following the implementation of this policy.

Note: This example shows some weaknesses in terms of planning, policy analysis, policy implementation and risk management within Trump administration.


M. Sirani                   03.08.2017

Just Remember This: Anytime the Trump Administration Takes A Tough Stand or Decides to Impose Any Sanction on Iran, Something "Bad" Would Happen to Either Karoobi or Mousavi or Rouhani (Good Cop-Bad Cop Policy).

Briefly:

Anytime the Trump Administration Takes A Tough Stand or Decides to Impose Any Sanction on Iran, Something "Bad" Would Happen to Either Karoobi, Mousavi, Rouhani or some other so-called "Reformist Figures" (Good Cop). Since couple days ago, we understood that the Senate has approved a series of sanctions against Iran, Russia & North Korea. Let see what has happened in Iran. Just a few examples:

1- Mr. Freydoon the brother of president Rouhani was arrested and was in jail for one night.
2- M. Karrobi was hospitalized due to probably hearth problem.
3- Today, the children of M. H. Mousavi state that the health condition of their father has been deteriorated since last night.

 The combination of these external and internal events show one thing: Good Cop & Bad Cop policy of Iranian Regime and the naivety of some western politicians and pundits, who after nearly 40 years would be misleading by the Iranian Regime again & again by the same good cop & bad cop policy.


M. Sirani                        02.08.2017 

RE Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Activities of North Korea (I Have Developed A Plan, Which Might Solve This Problem).

Briefly:

The USA and its allies can continue with a type of Cat & Mouse Game (Imposing sanctions, isolating, etc) with North Korea. But these policies, no matter how harsh, cannot curb, counter or stop the nuclear & ballistic missile activities of North Korea. This is a fact. In addition, the chance that both China & North Korea would accept  the recent Kissinger's proposal in this regard is very low or i might say nearly impossible.

In this regard, i have developed a plan, which might put an end to nuclear & ballistic missile activities of North Korea.



M. Sirani                 01.08.2017

Designating IRGC As A Terrorist Organization?

Briefly:

Personally, i believe this is a move, which the USA and its close allies should have done it long time ago.

BUT, due to the fact that The USA, some powerful states within the EU along with some powerful Arab states do not have a clear, effective and coherent strategy with regards to the Iranian regime and many other issues in the Middle East, i can say that such a move not only would not counter and curb the Iranian regime in an effective and powerful manner, but also it would create additional tension and conflict across the region. To put it simply, the negative consequences of such a move would be more than its benefit for the USA & its allies in the region at the present time.


Note: Without a clear strategy & a short and long term plan, you cannot cause any harm to the Iranian regime by such reactionary moves. 38 or 39 years ago, you could; but now now.  



M. Sirani                          17.07.2017

China's First Overseas Military Base in Djibouti. This is Just the Beginning.

Briefly:

The plan for this military base started in 2015 and as the media claim, China is deploying its troops to Djibouti now. Military base of China in Djibouti would empower the Geo-Political position of China, Russia and Iran with regards to many events & areas in the Middle East and some part of Africa.This is the first overseas military base of China, but it would not be the last one. In the next couple of years, we will highly likely witness more Chinese military base alongside the Belt & Road Initiative of China.

Note: When it comes to the Soft Power & Economic expansion, China has nearly reached its peak. Now is the time for military expansion to preserve the Soft Power & Economic achievements.
I have said this before and say it again: If many factors remain the same as they are today, in the next couple of years, we will experience a bipolar world; wherein the world will be divided into two camps of A-China (And its close allies) and B-Germany (And its close allies). In such a hypothetical scenario, China and Germany will surpass & bypass the USA & UK in different terms & scales. Such an issue has already been imposed on the UK following the Brexit.


M. Sirani                           12.07.2017

The U.S. Market Will Meltdown Further From Tomorrow (This G20 Summit Will Not Be A Pleasant Event for the USA & UK).

Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Programs of North Korea.

Briefly:
 I wish the current U.S.  decision makers & high ranking politicians understand a fact that: the world has changed.

Without an effective & clear strategy with regards to Russia (And tension in Ukraine), China & many issues in the Middle East (for example Syria, Iran) the USA cannot achieve an effective, fundamental & sustainable solution with regard to North Korea.


Note: The USA needs some fundamental changes (in some areas) and adjustment (in some) in its foreign policy. 



M. Sirani                     05.07.2017 

The END of ISIS in Iraq & Syria Means the Beginning of the Real Conflict in These Two States & Maybe Beyond.

Upcoming G20 Summit in Hamburg (2017) Will Not Be A Pleasant Event for the USA. The Result of This Summit Will Impact the U.S. Economy.

Unless Trump administration would change & adjust some of its policies and method of implementation of its policies (Which personally, i don't think it would happen):


M. Sirani                      01.07.2017

GOP Healthcare Bill (The USA); A Big Mistake.

Briefly:

As it appears, the U.S. Republican Party has not been able to introduce a more comprehensive and better health care bill than Obamacare after nearly 8 years. However, if some rumors, which say GOP Health care bill will cut the medicaid and health care for couple of millions low income American people in the next coming years, are true, i can give you 1000% guarantee that D. Trump will not win the second presidential race in 2020.


M. Sirani                          01.07.2017   

Federalism For Syria Means An Endless Conflict (The Era that Two Person Like Sykes & Picot Sit Somewhere and With the Help of A Ruler Divide the Middle East is OVER; WAKE UP).

Briefly:

As it appears the USA and some of U.S. allies are trying to establish some type of Federal political system in Syria. Creating a safe zone in Northern part of Syria for Kurds and recent training & supporting the Syrian rebels in the South (Syrian border with Jordan) could be understood in this respect. By these moves, as it appears the USA would try to establish a type of Federal political system consisted of three parts in Syria.

1- The Northern part under the command of the Syrian Kurds,

2- The Middle part under the command of Bashar Assad, which includes Shitte, Alawites and Assad's supporters.

3- The Southern part under the command of Sunni people & mainly for Sunni people.

By implementing this plan, the USA would mainly try to:

A- Weaken the central government of Bashar Assad.

B- Reduce the influence of Russia & Iran in Syria.

C- Accordingly weakening the position of Hezbollah in Syria and to some extent in Lebanon, and

D- Create a so-called safe zone for Israel in the Southern part of Syria.  

If my assumption in this regard is correct, Trump administration is trying to pursue H. Kissinger's proposal as a solution for Syrian civil war. Those, who are interested in this concept, can read Kissinger's proposal in his article entitled "A path Out of the Middle East Collapse" published on 16.10.2015. However,
based on many reasons and theoretical concepts such as Hobbsian "Formation of State-Government" and Habermasian "Communicative Rationality" i can clearly say that the idea of Federalism for Syria is just a joke; does not function in Syria; it cannot create peace and stability in Syria. On the contrary, this plan, in case of fully implementation, not only would create an endless civil war within Syria but also intensify the tension between Iraqi central government & Iraqi Kurdistan and accordingly would force Turkey to perform some military action against Kurds in both Iraq & Syria. This plan, in addition, would jeopardize the safety & security of Israel in the long term.

However, if some actors are interested to weaken the central government (Assad's regime) and accordingly create an endless civil war & conflict within Syria in order to achieve & preserve some economic & Geo-Strategic interests in the long term, the idea of Federalism in Syria is a perfect proposal. Current disastrous political system in Iraq and continuous tension between Iraqi central government and semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan confirms my explanation in this regard to some extent.

 M. Sirani                               29.06.2017 

The Emergence of A New Bipolar World in the Next 10-15 Years; Germany & China Will Surpass & Sideline the USA.

Briefly:

If many factors remain as they are today, we will highly likely observe a bipolar world in the next 10-15 years (more or less), wherein the world will be divided into two camps of A-China and its close allies, B- the EU (mainly Germany and its close allies). In such a hypothetical scenario, these two major powers (Camps) will surpass & sideline the USA & UK in many areas.

Note: Many factors & actors have sidelined the UK already. In this respect, the USA also is not in a very good shape, based on what i have observed in the last 5 months presidency of Mr. Trump. My prediction in this regard will highly likely come true; unless some major changes will happen in the USA or the EU or China, for example a major shift in foreign policy of the USA or collapse of the EU & EURO or a real revolution in China.



M. Sirani                      27.06.2017 

The USA Threatens Syria, Says: Assad is Planing Chemical Weapon Attack (Warning: Don't Think About Broad Military Intervention in Syria).

Briefly:

I have repeatedly said this before and say it again:
Any military intervention in Syria would be devastating for the USA and its regional allies due to many reasons including the fact that the U.S. , EU and Arab states do not have clear & coherent strategies with regards to many events in the Middle East & Africa.


M. Sirani                        27.05.2017

Making An Israel-Palestine Peace Deal is Not Like Buying or Selling An Skyscraper In Manhattan. Such An Important Task Requires Real Expertise; Real Qualification.

Briefly:

There are many, many, many differences between the art of the deal in selling & buying apartment-skyscraper and International Relations-International Politics. If these two subjects were the same every real state expert could have become a Minister of Foreign Affairs.

I think my short message is Chrystal clear.


M. Sirani                     26.06.2017

Nobody Takes Your Empty Words Seriously.

Briefly:

As long as you don't have clear, reliable and coherent strategies with regards to many events in the Middle East:

A- The Iranian Regime beats the hell out of all of you in the region and later in Africa;
B- Various types of Radical Islamic Groups will come and go;
C- Nobody takes your empty words seriously.


M. Sirani              25.06.2017

Opening The "Liberal Mosques" in Germany & Norway Reminds Me To One of The Statements of A. Einstein.

Briefly:

Those Muslims or Non-Muslims, who have designed the trend of "Liberal Mosque" doesn't have a clue about:

A- Islam

B- Historical Background of Islam

C- Historical Background of Christianity, reforms in Christianity and various types of factors, which the combination of all of them forced some parts of the Christianity to accept the reforms.

Based on brief explanation noted above, i will anticipate with high probability that the fabricated trend of so-called "Liberal Mosque" does not solve anything at all with regards to emergence and rise of various Radical Islamic Terrorist Group or Islamic Terrorism Activity neither in the Western countries, nor in the Middle East, nor in Asia or Africa. This fabricated trend, on the contrary, will backfire & provoke many Muslims around the world; and accordingly will cause many additional tensions and conflicts.


Note: A. Einstein once said: "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity" (This is the only thing i can say further with regard to development of the so-called "Liberal Mosque"). These geniuses have deliberately created some clear Terror Target for various Islamic Terrorists by their own hands.   



M. Sirani                                  21.06.2017 

A Sustainable Israeli & Palestinian Peace Deal; Sweet Dreams.

Briefly:

As long as the USA, the powerful EU states and Arab countries do not have clear, effective & coherent strategies with regards to many events including A- Iran, B- Political Islam, C- Emergence and rise of various radical Islamic Terrorist groups in Asia, The Middle East and Africa, the idea of a sustainable & long term peace deal between Israel and Palestine is just a joke. Those novice hotshots should firstly work on a solid foundation, then start to build a skyscraper on the top of it.

Note: Israeli politicians should be insane to fall in such a trap. In addition, as long as you are confused, the Iranian regime is the main winner in the Middle East & later in Africa. 


M. Sirani                         21.06.2017          

Any Military Intervention in Syria

Briefly:
Any military intervention in Syria will end up in

A- Total destruction of Syria, collateral damages & influx of refugees.

B- Broad war & proxy wars in multiple battlefields across the Middle East & possibly beyond the Middle East (E.g Ukraine).

In such a hypothetical scenario, the USA & its allies will lose based on many reasons including the fact that current U.S. administration does not have a clear strategy with regards to the Iranian regime and many other ongoing events in the Middle East. Thus, avoid adventurous & miscalculated move in Syria.


M. Sirani                    20.06.2017  

Be Prepared for More Intensified Tension in Syria & Most Parts of the Middle East in The Next Coming Months & Probably Years.

Briefly:

Due to the fact that the USA does not have some clear & effective strategies with regards to many events in the Middle East, we should highly likely expect intensification of tension in various parts of the Middle East in the next coming months & probably years.


M. Sirani         18.06.2017

When The Entire World Has Become A Ridiculous Circus======> 2017 Nobel Peace Prize For J. Kerry & J. Zarif For The Useless JCPOA.

What a joke.


M. Sirani                14.06.2017

When It Comes to the Threat of Radical Islamic Terrorism in both Short & Long Terms, All Western Countries (The EU+The USA Without Any Exception) Are in a Very Deep Shit.

Briefly:

All the western countries are plunging in a very deep serious shit in the short & long term, when it comes to the threat of Radical Islamic Terrorism; due to the lack of an effective and robust strategy.

Note: The citizens of all western countries will suffer a lot in this matter in both short & long term thanks to their incompetent & corrupt politicians and pundits.

M. Sirani                                24.05.2017

Warning: Islamic Terrorist Activities Have Entered Into A More Dangerous & Critical New Phase of "Suicide Bombing" Within The Western Countries.

Briefly:

Needless to explore the scale & scope of threat in this new development, thanks to bunch of corrupt & incompetent kids, who play the role of high ranking politicians & decision makers.


M. Sirani    23.05.2017 

Those Incompetent & Corrupt Kids (Some Politicians+ Pundits), Who Have Led US Into This Disaster, Want to Convince Us About War on Terror (Forget The War on Terror; Resign & Get Lost).

Bunch of incompetent and corrupt kids, who do not have the credible qualification to run a dog, but have occupied various high ranking political positions. All of them should Resign & get lost.


M. Sirani                   23.05.2017

The Tragic Terrorist Attack in Manchester: Bunch of Corrupt Kids, Who Call Themselves "Politicians or Think Tanks (Ding Dang) Should Read My Prediction in 2013.

Here below is part of my essay entitled: An assessment about the current civil war in Syria. This essay was written on August, 2013. Some viewers might be interested to go through some of my predictions in that time about the consequences of the Syrian civil war; some predictions that we are dealing with them currently in Iraq, Syria itself, Lebanon and lone wolf attacks in the western countries, etc. 



M. Sirani                        01.11.2014

7- Some Consequences of the Syrian Civil War:

Whether we are supporting Bashar Assad or its opponents or are neutral, we should pay attention to some of the consequences of the Syrian civil war. Analyzing these consequences is very important, because some of them might occur beyond the Syrian geographical territory within the country that we live in. Some of these consequences are briefly as follows.

1- The first and important issue is the large number of human casualties and near-total destruction of the country’s infrastructure. We should not be genius to anticipate that this issue would be devastating for Syria, the Syrian people and the neighboring countries for some decades to come.

2- The second issue is about the overall effect of the civil war on the life of the Syrian people. This issue has caused that more than 1.6 million people have fled Syria and taken refuge abroad in some countries such as Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and some North African countries. We should bear in mind that we are talking about more than 500,000 Syrian refugees in a country such as Lebanon with a population size of 4.2 million, or nearly 500,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan with a population size of almost 6 million people, etc. The large numbers of the Syrian refugees are the huge burden on the shoulders of all these states, the international organizations as well as NGOs. In the long term, this issue would cause many problems in different arenas including security for all these countries. As an example, asylum seekers and refuges are the most vulnerable groups around the world; because, in most cases they don not have proper access to their basic needs and rights. As such, some members of this vulnerable group would become the easiest preys for different criminal organizations as well as Jihadist groups. This issue is also applicable for some of the Syrian refugees in the Middle East. Given the fact that most of these countries mentioned above do not have a powerful, stable and reliable political system and the Syrian civil war has entered in the new phase of a conflict between the Shiite and Sunni groups, we can anticipate that the presence of large numbers of the Syrian refugees would threaten the peace, stability and security of some countries in the Middle East in the long term.

There is also another important issue with regard to the Syrian refugees. What these refugees would do, if Assad’s regime would manage to survive this civil war? Given the fact that some of these refugees, themselves or their relatives are fighting against Assad’s regime, would they dare to return to Syria in the future? Who / which powerful international entity would be able to provide and maintain their security in Syria under the rule of Bashar Assad? On the contrary, if Assad’s regime would collapse somewhere in the future, who, or which powerful entity would be able to provide and maintain security for those Shiite or Alawites people, who have supported Bashar Assad or neutrally have behaved during this conflict?

3- The overall presence of Hezbollah in this conflict and increasing numbers of conflict between the Shiite and Sunni groups in different countries in the region illustrate the fact that eventually, the Syrian civil war would spread to some other neighboring countries in the Middle East. In this respect, the two countries of Lebanon and Iraq are the most vulnerable states.

4- The Syrian civil war has facilitated the best environment in terms of training, access to different facilities such as money, weapon, training and network building for all Jihadists around the world. This chaotic environment functions like an academic institute for all Islamic fundamentalists including novice Jihadists, who enter Syria legally or illegally from different borderlines. After a while, these novice Jihadists would be expert in different military tactics and strategic matters such as using different weapons - explosive materials, organizing, surviving in harsh and difficult circumstances, network building, etc. The important and tricky point is the time that these jihadists would decide to return to their countries of origin, whether is somewhere in the Middle East or the EU or some other countries around the world. In this respect, we can anticipate that each of these jihadists would function as an ambassador of terror and would be able to organize and establish a terror cell in his /her country of origin.

5- This is the fact that the Kurdish people has been one of the most marginalized and deprived groups in Syria. The Syrian Kurds live mostly in the northern part of Syria along the southern border of Turkey and partly the northern border of Iraq. During the chaotic atmosphere of the civil war, the Syrian Kurds might decide to establish an either autonomous or a Kurdish self-regulated region in the northern part of Syria. This issue would threaten the sovereignty of Syria, Turkey, and Iraq. As a result, it would create extra instability and tension in the region.

6- We should bear in mind that some of these consequences, inevitability, would also affect the Israeli–Palestinian peace process to some degree.

All mentioned above, indicates the fact that the consequences of the Syrian civil war from different angles and to some degrees would be devastating not just for the Syrian people or the country of Syria, but also for all of us, no matter whom we are or where we live.

M. Sirani                      August 2013

         

The Presidential Election in Iran: Rouhani or Raisi?

Briefly:

There is high probability that Rouhani will be elected for the second term. There is some small chance for Raisi. However, no matter, which one of these candidates would become the next president, we should bear in mind that:

A- Different evidences indicate the fact that Both Rouhani & Raisi have close ties with the Supreme Leader Khamenei.

B- As the special representatives of the Supreme Leader, both Rouhani & Raisi have been appointed by Ayatollah Khamenei for some important entities within the Islamic Regime.

C- In this presidential race, Rouhani has more chance to win. However, no matter, Rouhani or Raisi would win the election, the entire policies of the Islamic Regime whether at domestic or foreign affairs will remain the same as before.


M. Sirani                       19.05.2017