The Emergence of A New Bipolar World in the Next 10-15 Years; Germany & China Will Surpass & Sideline the USA.

Briefly:

If many factors remain as they are today, we will highly likely observe a bipolar world in the next 10-15 years (more or less), wherein the world will be divided into two camps of A-China and its close allies, B- the EU (mainly Germany and its close allies). In such a hypothetical scenario, these two major powers (Camps) will surpass & sideline the USA & UK in many areas.

Note: Many factors & actors have sidelined the UK already. In this respect, the USA also is not in a very good shape, based on what i have observed in the last 5 months presidency of Mr. Trump. My prediction in this regard will highly likely come true; unless some major changes will happen in the USA or the EU or China, for example a major shift in foreign policy of the USA or collapse of the EU & EURO or a real revolution in China.



M. Sirani                      27.06.2017 

The USA Threatens Syria, Says: Assad is Planing Chemical Weapon Attack (Warning: Don't Think About Broad Military Intervention in Syria).

Briefly:

I have repeatedly said this before and say it again:
Any military intervention in Syria would be devastating for the USA and its regional allies due to many reasons including the fact that the U.S. , EU and Arab states do not have clear & coherent strategies with regards to many events in the Middle East & Africa.


M. Sirani                        27.05.2017

Making An Israel-Palestine Peace Deal is Not Like Buying or Selling An Skyscraper In Manhattan. Such An Important Task Requires Real Expertise; Real Qualification.

Briefly:

There are many, many, many differences between the art of the deal in selling & buying apartment-skyscraper and International Relations-International Politics. If these two subjects were the same every real state expert could have become a Minister of Foreign Affairs.

I think my short message is Chrystal clear.


M. Sirani                     26.06.2017

Nobody Takes Your Empty Words Seriously.

Briefly:

As long as you don't have clear, reliable and coherent strategies with regards to many events in the Middle East:

A- The Iranian Regime beats the hell out of all of you in the region and later in Africa;
B- Various types of Radical Islamic Groups will come and go;
C- Nobody takes your empty words seriously.


M. Sirani              25.06.2017

Opening The "Liberal Mosques" in Germany & Norway Reminds Me To One of The Statements of A. Einstein.

Briefly:

Those Muslims or Non-Muslims, who have designed the trend of "Liberal Mosque" doesn't have a clue about:

A- Islam

B- Historical Background of Islam

C- Historical Background of Christianity, reforms in Christianity and various types of factors, which the combination of all of them forced some parts of the Christianity to accept the reforms.

Based on brief explanation noted above, i will anticipate with high probability that the fabricated trend of so-called "Liberal Mosque" does not solve anything at all with regards to emergence and rise of various Radical Islamic Terrorist Group or Islamic Terrorism Activity neither in the Western countries, nor in the Middle East, nor in Asia or Africa. This fabricated trend, on the contrary, will backfire & provoke many Muslims around the world; and accordingly will cause many additional tensions and conflicts.


Note: A. Einstein once said: "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity" (This is the only thing i can say further with regard to development of the so-called "Liberal Mosque"). These geniuses have deliberately created some clear Terror Target for various Islamic Terrorists by their own hands.   



M. Sirani                                  21.06.2017 

A Sustainable Israeli & Palestinian Peace Deal; Sweet Dreams.

Briefly:

As long as the USA, the powerful EU states and Arab countries do not have clear, effective & coherent strategies with regards to many events including A- Iran, B- Political Islam, C- Emergence and rise of various radical Islamic Terrorist groups in Asia, The Middle East and Africa, the idea of a sustainable & long term peace deal between Israel and Palestine is just a joke. Those novice hotshots should firstly work on a solid foundation, then start to build a skyscraper on the top of it.

Note: Israeli politicians should be insane to fall in such a trap. In addition, as long as you are confused, the Iranian regime is the main winner in the Middle East & later in Africa. 


M. Sirani                         21.06.2017          

Any Military Intervention in Syria

Briefly:
Any military intervention in Syria will end up in

A- Total destruction of Syria, collateral damages & influx of refugees.

B- Broad war & proxy wars in multiple battlefields across the Middle East & possibly beyond the Middle East (E.g Ukraine).

In such a hypothetical scenario, the USA & its allies will lose based on many reasons including the fact that current U.S. administration does not have a clear strategy with regards to the Iranian regime and many other ongoing events in the Middle East. Thus, avoid adventurous & miscalculated move in Syria.


M. Sirani                    20.06.2017  

Be Prepared for More Intensified Tension in Syria & Most Parts of the Middle East in The Next Coming Months & Probably Years.

Briefly:

Due to the fact that the USA does not have some clear & effective strategies with regards to many events in the Middle East, we should highly likely expect intensification of tension in various parts of the Middle East in the next coming months & probably years.


M. Sirani         18.06.2017

When The Entire World Has Become A Ridiculous Circus======> 2017 Nobel Peace Prize For J. Kerry & J. Zarif For The Useless JCPOA.

What a joke.


M. Sirani                14.06.2017

When It Comes to the Threat of Radical Islamic Terrorism in both Short & Long Terms, All Western Countries (The EU+The USA Without Any Exception) Are in a Very Deep Shit.

Briefly:

All the western countries are plunging in a very deep serious shit in the short & long term, when it comes to the threat of Radical Islamic Terrorism; due to the lack of an effective and robust strategy.

Note: The citizens of all western countries will suffer a lot in this matter in both short & long term thanks to their incompetent & corrupt politicians and pundits.

M. Sirani                                24.05.2017

Warning: Islamic Terrorist Activities Have Entered Into A More Dangerous & Critical New Phase of "Suicide Bombing" Within The Western Countries.

Briefly:

Needless to explore the scale & scope of threat in this new development, thanks to bunch of corrupt & incompetent kids, who play the role of high ranking politicians & decision makers.


M. Sirani    23.05.2017 

Those Incompetent & Corrupt Kids (Some Politicians+ Pundits), Who Have Led US Into This Disaster, Want to Convince Us About War on Terror (Forget The War on Terror; Resign & Get Lost).

Bunch of incompetent and corrupt kids, who do not have the credible qualification to run a dog, but have occupied various high ranking political positions. All of them should Resign & get lost.


M. Sirani                   23.05.2017

The Tragic Terrorist Attack in Manchester: Bunch of Corrupt Kids, Who Call Themselves "Politicians or Think Tanks (Ding Dang) Should Read My Prediction in 2013.

Here below is part of my essay entitled: An assessment about the current civil war in Syria. This essay was written on August, 2013. Some viewers might be interested to go through some of my predictions in that time about the consequences of the Syrian civil war; some predictions that we are dealing with them currently in Iraq, Syria itself, Lebanon and lone wolf attacks in the western countries, etc. 



M. Sirani                        01.11.2014

7- Some Consequences of the Syrian Civil War:

Whether we are supporting Bashar Assad or its opponents or are neutral, we should pay attention to some of the consequences of the Syrian civil war. Analyzing these consequences is very important, because some of them might occur beyond the Syrian geographical territory within the country that we live in. Some of these consequences are briefly as follows.

1- The first and important issue is the large number of human casualties and near-total destruction of the country’s infrastructure. We should not be genius to anticipate that this issue would be devastating for Syria, the Syrian people and the neighboring countries for some decades to come.

2- The second issue is about the overall effect of the civil war on the life of the Syrian people. This issue has caused that more than 1.6 million people have fled Syria and taken refuge abroad in some countries such as Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and some North African countries. We should bear in mind that we are talking about more than 500,000 Syrian refugees in a country such as Lebanon with a population size of 4.2 million, or nearly 500,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan with a population size of almost 6 million people, etc. The large numbers of the Syrian refugees are the huge burden on the shoulders of all these states, the international organizations as well as NGOs. In the long term, this issue would cause many problems in different arenas including security for all these countries. As an example, asylum seekers and refuges are the most vulnerable groups around the world; because, in most cases they don not have proper access to their basic needs and rights. As such, some members of this vulnerable group would become the easiest preys for different criminal organizations as well as Jihadist groups. This issue is also applicable for some of the Syrian refugees in the Middle East. Given the fact that most of these countries mentioned above do not have a powerful, stable and reliable political system and the Syrian civil war has entered in the new phase of a conflict between the Shiite and Sunni groups, we can anticipate that the presence of large numbers of the Syrian refugees would threaten the peace, stability and security of some countries in the Middle East in the long term.

There is also another important issue with regard to the Syrian refugees. What these refugees would do, if Assad’s regime would manage to survive this civil war? Given the fact that some of these refugees, themselves or their relatives are fighting against Assad’s regime, would they dare to return to Syria in the future? Who / which powerful international entity would be able to provide and maintain their security in Syria under the rule of Bashar Assad? On the contrary, if Assad’s regime would collapse somewhere in the future, who, or which powerful entity would be able to provide and maintain security for those Shiite or Alawites people, who have supported Bashar Assad or neutrally have behaved during this conflict?

3- The overall presence of Hezbollah in this conflict and increasing numbers of conflict between the Shiite and Sunni groups in different countries in the region illustrate the fact that eventually, the Syrian civil war would spread to some other neighboring countries in the Middle East. In this respect, the two countries of Lebanon and Iraq are the most vulnerable states.

4- The Syrian civil war has facilitated the best environment in terms of training, access to different facilities such as money, weapon, training and network building for all Jihadists around the world. This chaotic environment functions like an academic institute for all Islamic fundamentalists including novice Jihadists, who enter Syria legally or illegally from different borderlines. After a while, these novice Jihadists would be expert in different military tactics and strategic matters such as using different weapons - explosive materials, organizing, surviving in harsh and difficult circumstances, network building, etc. The important and tricky point is the time that these jihadists would decide to return to their countries of origin, whether is somewhere in the Middle East or the EU or some other countries around the world. In this respect, we can anticipate that each of these jihadists would function as an ambassador of terror and would be able to organize and establish a terror cell in his /her country of origin.

5- This is the fact that the Kurdish people has been one of the most marginalized and deprived groups in Syria. The Syrian Kurds live mostly in the northern part of Syria along the southern border of Turkey and partly the northern border of Iraq. During the chaotic atmosphere of the civil war, the Syrian Kurds might decide to establish an either autonomous or a Kurdish self-regulated region in the northern part of Syria. This issue would threaten the sovereignty of Syria, Turkey, and Iraq. As a result, it would create extra instability and tension in the region.

6- We should bear in mind that some of these consequences, inevitability, would also affect the Israeli–Palestinian peace process to some degree.

All mentioned above, indicates the fact that the consequences of the Syrian civil war from different angles and to some degrees would be devastating not just for the Syrian people or the country of Syria, but also for all of us, no matter whom we are or where we live.

M. Sirani                      August 2013

         

The Presidential Election in Iran: Rouhani or Raisi?

Briefly:

There is high probability that Rouhani will be elected for the second term. There is some small chance for Raisi. However, no matter, which one of these candidates would become the next president, we should bear in mind that:

A- Different evidences indicate the fact that Both Rouhani & Raisi have close ties with the Supreme Leader Khamenei.

B- As the special representatives of the Supreme Leader, both Rouhani & Raisi have been appointed by Ayatollah Khamenei for some important entities within the Islamic Regime.

C- In this presidential race, Rouhani has more chance to win. However, no matter, Rouhani or Raisi would win the election, the entire policies of the Islamic Regime whether at domestic or foreign affairs will remain the same as before.


M. Sirani                       19.05.2017

PM May Calls For Early Election=====>The UK is Not In a Good Shape.

Briefly:

Lack of proper qualification, knowledge and expertise. They have started with Brexit; but are confused what they should do from now on; or where they should go!!!!!!


Note: When some people do not have proper qualification, knowledge and expertise would become responsible for a big task,,,,,,, (One of the reasons for an empire to fall). 



M. Sirani             18.04.2017

The First Possible Consequences of Military Strike on Syria.

Briefly:

This apparently One Off military strike on Syria would have many consequences in short & long term beyond the geographical territory of Syria. One of the first possible consequences of this move might be the notion that both Iran & Russia would deploy more military troops and equipment into Syria probably in the next couple of hours & days.
The impact of such a move in terms of Syrian rebels is clear; needless to explore it.

Note: As i said in my previous short note, this One Off military strike will intensify the tension not only within Syria but also in some other areas across the Middle East or probably beyond.


M. Sirani                 07.04.2017

The USA Launched Military Strike on Syria. This Military Strike Would Intensify the Tension in Many Areas.

Briefly:

The USA launched Tomahawk Missile strike on Syrian airfield in retaliation to the recent chemical attack in Idlib area. This event raises three important questions as follows.

The Question 1- Did the Syrian air force drop chemical bomb in Idlib? This is a fact that Assad's regime has treated its opponents in a very cruel and inhuman manner in the last couple pf years. In this respect, the Syrian regime has used chemical weapon against its own people in various occasions in the past. But the idea that Assad's regime dropped chemical bomb (Sarin Gas) in Idlib is something hard to believe, based on many reasons mainly:

1-A: The first issue is the recent victories of the Syrian government. The Syrian government has achieved some magnificent victories in the past couple of months. Among these victories recapturing the city of Aleppo (The capital of Syrian rebels since 2012) could be mentioned. These series of victories indicate a fact that the Syrian regime has the upper hand in comparison with the Syrian rebels. From this we can assume that the Syrian regime has not been in a very critical position that would be forced to use chemical weapon in Idlib to save itself from the rebels.

2-A: The second issue which, might save the Syrian government from this allegation is the recent statements of some high ranking members of Trump administration. In the past couple of days, The United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and the Secretary of State Rex Tillerson both stated that the USA would not pursue "Assad Must Go" policy anymore; in order words the first & important priority for the USA is defeating and eradicating the ISIS; not changing the current Syrian government. These statements along with various statements of President Trump in the past were pleasant news for Bashar Assad in a way that Bashar Assad himself in some interview stated that he was ready to cooperate with president Trump in war against ISIS. Considering these positive statements, it is hard to believe that Assad's regime has used chemical weapon in Idlib; simply because the use of chemical weapon would have ruined all those positive statements of U.S. officials.

3-A- The third issue is the mentality of president Trump. Everybody, who have a little bit knowledge and have followed president Trump's statements and actions know one important thing that president Trump is a very serious person. He is not one of those politicians full of just empty words.

Based on brief details mentioned above, the chance that the Syrian forces have dropped chemical bomb in Idlib is very low, in my opinion.

The Question 2- Was this strike one time military strike or would continue?
Trump administration has stated that this military strike was a type of punishment with regard to the recent chemical attack in Idlib. From this we can assume that this might be a one time military operation. In this case, we face another question as follows.
Various groups and organizations in Syria including ISIS or Al-Nusrah front have access to various types of weapons and ammunition including chemical weapons due to 6 years civil war in the country. What would happen if in the next couple of days some of these groups e.g. ISIS launch a chemical mortar and target a Syrian rebel group? What would Trump administration do in such a hypothetical scenario? Would Trump administration launch another military strike against the Syrian government again? (To be honest, the recent military strike would pave the way towards such an operation in the future).

In short, This military strike does not change the Syrian civil war in a very effective and sustainable manner. This operation would on the contrary, pave the way for various groups to use this tactic and provoke the USA to perform more military strike against Assad's regime. Practicing such a tactic, if continues, would finally drag Trump administration into the Syrian civil war and direct military confrontation with Russia, Iran and China at the end of the road. Should this happen, we would witness a broad battlefield beyond the geographical territory of Syria & the Middle East. In such a hypothetical scenario we would observe many changes not only in the Middle East but also in Baltic area. Unfortunately, the results of these events would not be pleasant for neither the USA nor for Arab countries based on many reasons particularly the notion that as it appears the USA & its allies do not have a clear strategy with regards to many events in the Middle East.


Note: Trump administration could use this chemical attack event in a much better manner and get much better results. The lack of clear strategy would lead to disaster. 

M. Sirani                        07.05.2017

Wiretapping Trump Tower; A False Allegation Or A Factual & True Event?

Briefly:

When it comes to leaking the confidential information to the media outlets, both FBI & NSA directors claim that they cannot identify the main sources of the leaks in most cases. This simply means some within the Intelligence community leak the confidential data to the media without the knowledge of FBI or NSA directors.
If we accept that this is a true & honest claim, we can come to another logical & reasonable conclusion as follows: That some individual/s within the U.S. intelligence entities might have received an order from somewhere to do the wiretapping or spontaneously have decided to wiretap or intercept Trump Tower without the knowledge of for example the directors of FBI or NSA. In short, When some activity like leaking within the intelligence community would occur beyond the knowledge, power, authority and control of FBI or NSA directors, we can assume that some other activity like wiretapping or intercepting might also occur beyond the knowledge of FBI or NSA directors (This is a simple logical & factual calculation).   

In addition, we should not forget that the director Comey himself has stated recently that "there is no 100% privacy in the USA". Moreover, there is some evidences, which show that some U.S. Intelligence entity/ies has/have intercepted the phone conversation between General Flynn & Russia Ambassador in the USA.

Based on these evidences and many other ongoing events in the USA (Which mostly indicate the Rise of Neo-McCarthyism) we can conclude that there is high probability that some individual/s or entities have wiretapped or intercepted the Trump Tower during 2016 U.S. election.

To put it simply: If i was in the hearing today, i would have asked both FBI & NSA directors the following questions:

A- Who within the U.S. Intelligence community have leaked the confidential data to the media?
Both probably could have answered they don't know.

Then i could have asked the second crushing question as follows.
B- When you don't know who within your entities have leaked the info, how on earth would you say with high probability that no one within your entities has wiretapped or intercepted Trump Tower?
Give me a single logical reason to accept the reliability & credibility of your argument in this regard.



Note: As i have said it earlier: Defending the USA in different terms against any domestic as well as foreign enemy should be an important task for every U.S. citizen. But this issue should not be mixed or accompanied with an anomaly like McCarthyism. The rise of Neo-McCarthyism would extremely damage the liberal values and democratic institutions of the USA. This is a dangerous trend and should be stopped as soon as possible; before it's too late.  


M. Sirani                       20.03.2017 

Some Predictions About The Meeting Between President Trump and Chancellor Merkel.

Briefly some of my predictions following this meeting: (The EU would face a series of uncertainty & instability).

A- A series of economic uncertainty would hit the entire EU zone (Chancellor Merkel will return back to Germany with almost "An Empty Hand" from this meeting).

B- The chance that Angela Merkel would be re-elected again is very very very low.

C- The victory of M. Le Pen in France means the beginning of DEFINITE collapse of the EU.

The consequences of each issues mentioned above in different terms at national, regional and global level are clear.



Note: My predictions are based on A- The body language of both the president & Chancellor Merkel B- Some of their answers during the press conference.



M. Sirani               17.03.2017

China & Russia Are Building "Floating Nuclear Power Plants". Why? For What Reason? Where?

Briefly: Where will these floating nuclear plants be used?

My prediction:
China will use it for its artificial islands in the South East Asia; it seems China has a long term development and expansionist plan in this regard.

Russia will probably use it in the North somewhere in the Arctic, as far as i can anticipate up until this moment.

Due to the massive cost of such a project and the notion that both China & Russia at almost the same period of time have started to build such a floating plants, we can anticipate that this is a well-coordinated and calculated move between Russia & China and it shows that China & Russia have a long term plan in this regard. The only thing i can say is that this is an important development, which should neither be ignored nor underestimated.




M. Sirani                      14.03.2017

New Referendum In Scotland: This Time Scotland Will Highly Likely Separate From the UK Based On,,,

Briefly: In case of new referendum:

This time Scotland will highly likely separate from the UK based on many reasons mainly:

A- Powerful nationalism

B- Confusion in different terms within current UK government specially following the Brexit.

C- Enjoying some opportunities within the EU for Scotland & Scottish people.

D- The influence of the EU.

The combination of many factors particularly four factors mentioned above, would give more probability to the occurrence of such an event.


M. Sirani                 13.03.2017 

The EU Versus Turkey ( Wrong State, Wrong Time, Wrong Place/S, Wrong Tension ). Russia, China & Iran Should Thank the EU For This Mess.

Briefly:

Whether some like it or not, this is a fact; Turkey has currently the upper hands in many areas in comparison with the EU. The EU politicians should have A REALISTIC ANALYSIS from current situation and solve their problem with Turkey in a diplomatic manner. In case of escalation the tension, the EU would lose a lot much more than Turkey.

Note: Wrong State, Wrong Time, Wrong Place/S, Wrong Tension. 

Those geniuses in the EU should understand that by deportation of Turkey minister or preventing the rallies: 

A- They have created an unnecessary tension at this critical moment. 

B- They have increased the popularity of R. Erdogan and his government among Turkish people (The result of upcoming election in Turkey would confirm my statement in this regard; just watch).  

C- It should be added that Russia, Iran and China should deeply thank you for creating & intensifying this tension with Turkey at this critical moment. 



M. Sirani                  12.03.2017 

Just A Reminder: Some of My Earlier Predictions About Weak or Wrong Polices of Obama Administration-EU With Regard to Turkey.

Briefly:

Contrary to the claim of some historical-political Copier & Paster, who call themselves "Think Tank" or pundit, this tragic event would not start the Third World War. The assassination of the Russian ambassador along with some previous diplomatic disputes between Turkey and the EU - USA (e.g. EU membership, free-visa for Turkish citizens, F. Gulen, etc) have opened the new door of opportunities for Turkey with regards to Russia, Iran and at the end of the road for China as well.
Based on this brief, we can expect many changes with regards to many events in the Middle East, Central Asian countries and Syria as well. The first and important impact of this newly developed rapprochement is that Bashar Assad would remain in the power.


Note: Assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Turkey Does Not Mean the Beginning of the Third World War. On the Contrary, it Means The End of the Syrian Civil War Sooner Than some people Thought. R. Erdogan would highly likely trade Syria with other opportunities offered by Iran, Russia & China.
 And the winners are: Iran, Russia, Assad's Regime & China.
The losers are,,,,,,,,,,,, you guess this part. 

What will highly likely happen in the next coming months & years? With high probability In short:

A- Turkey would trade Syria in return to some beneficial deals in different terms with Russia, Iran & China

B- Turkey, Russia and Iran would agree to put an end to the Syrian civil war.

C- Turkey, Russia, Iran and Assad's regime would beat the hell out of ISIS in Syria & consequently in Iraq.

D- Pro-Turkey rebels would get amnesty to remain and live in Syria or move to Turkey.

E- China, Russia and Iran would expand their relations with Turkey as much as they can. In this respect, offering the Shanghai Treaty membership to Turkey could be mentioned. This means a historical crashing point for NATO. 

F- What would happen to 3 million refugees sheltered in Turkey? If the USA & EU would not cover the costs, Turkey would open its borders toward the EU. This means influx of millions of refugees toward the EU countries. 

G- The combination of these events indicate a fact and that is that the entire Middle East and Central Asian countries would experience some type of change/s in different terms.  

And many unpleasant events for the USA and the EU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.

*****All the predictions noted above (And many more other unpleasant events) would come true in the next coming months & years with HIGH PROBABILITY, if the USA & the EU would not fundamentally change their policies with regards to many events in the Middle East and Turkey.  

Honestly: The kindergarten policies of Obama administration, some previous U.S. administrations and some EU countries are the main causes of such a big development.


M. Sirani                 20.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous short notes in this regard. I repeat my statement again: Considering the chaotic & kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration, some EU countries and new developments in the region, Turkey should be naive, if it would give up Cyprus at the present time without taking SOME FAT ADVANTAGE/S FROM THE EU & USA.


M. Sirani               09.01.2017

Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).

Briefly:

I don't want to go through my previous short notes dated couple of months or years ago in this regard. I just re-upload some of my short notes- predictions since last week. Once again, i repeat my warning: If the USA and the EU would not solve their differences with Turkey in a diplomatic, logical and reasonable manner, there is high probability that Turkey would join the Shanghai Treaty or totally bandwagon to China-Russia somewhere in the near future. Such a move would change the balance of power profoundly. Needless to explore the winners & losers of such a move and its consequences in different terms.



M. Sirani                          04.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous warnings in this regard.

1- Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means 

Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.

2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.

3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.

4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (President Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).

Note: Whether we like it or not, President Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 

M. Sirani                24.11.2016

2- The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU. 

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries has caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank).  



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

3- Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency. 

Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

The Rebirth of New McCarthyism in the USA: Like A Cancerous Tumor, This Destructive Trend Would Destroy The Entire Liberal Values & Democratic Institutions in the USA, If It Would Not be Controlled By U.S. Authority ASP.

Briefly:

This destructive trend would spread into the EU; if it would not be stopped in the USA as soon as possible. This is a serious threat for basic liberal values mainly different types of freedom and global peace & stability.

Note for those, who their brains have remained frozen in the cold war era:
There are huge differences between defending your country from any domestic as well as foreign enemy in different terms and McCarthyism.


M. Sirani         02.03.2017  

Designating IRGC As A Terrorist Organization Means Occurrence of Many Unpredictable Events Across the Middle East.

Briefly:

Such a move would have many consequences in different terms. One of the side effects of such a move would be a broad proxy war between U.S. forces and the Iranian Regime forces and its affiliates across the entire Middle East, e.g. in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc. Such a move would forcefully change the balance of power in many areas across the Middle East.


Note: If the USA does not have a clear, effective & reliable strategy with regards to many events in the Middle East, for example how to eradicate radical Islamic Terrorism or how to deal with the civil wars in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and how to deal with the Iranian Regime, the designating IRGC as a terrorist organization would develop many backlashes and would become counterproductive at the end of the road. This is a very BIG MOVE. 


M. Sirani                13.02.2017  

A Direct Military Confrontation Between Iran And Trump Administration? There is Highly Likely, We Will Observe Such An Event Somewhere in the Future.

Briefly:

There is high probability that Iran and Trump administration will face a direct military confrontation somewhere in the future. Such a clash might happen somewhere in the Gulf of Aden, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, the Persian Gulf of the Strait of Hormuz. Whether this military confrontation starts in Yemen, or Syria or any other areas mentioned above is not important. The important point is the notion that the military conflict will highly likely spread to all areas mentioned above, if both or one side will not react in a smart and professional manner. One thing is clear to me and that is that there are tough days ahead of all of us in this regard.


M. Sirani                           08.02.2017

Dreaming About Unified Cyprus? Read Some of My Previous Short Notes in This Regard.

Here below are some of my previous short notes in this regard. I repeat my statement again: Considering the chaotic & kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration, some EU countries and new developments in the region, Turkey should be naive, if it would give up Cyprus at the present time without taking SOME FAT ADVANTAGE/S FROM THE EU & USA.


M. Sirani               09.01.2017

Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).

Briefly:

I don't want to go through my previous short notes dated couple of months or years ago in this regard. I just re-upload some of my short notes- predictions since last week. Once again, i repeat my warning: If the USA and the EU would not solve their differences with Turkey in a diplomatic, logical and reasonable manner, there is high probability that Turkey would join the Shanghai Treaty or totally bandwagon to China-Russia somewhere in the near future. Such a move would change the balance of power profoundly. Needless to explore the winners & losers of such a move and its consequences in different terms.



M. Sirani                          04.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous warnings in this regard.

1- Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means 

Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.

2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.

3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.

4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (President Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).

Note: Whether we like it or not, President Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 

M. Sirani                24.11.2016

2- The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU. 

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries has caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank).  



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

3- Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency. 

Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

As Long As the Tension Between Turkey and Obama Administration- Some EU Countries Has Not Been Solved, The Unification of Cyprus Would Highly Likely Remain A Dream.

Briefly:

Turkey is upset from chaotic & kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration & some EU countries. Thus the chance for a unified Cyprus is very low or i might say is nearly impossible in the near future.


M. Sirani                        09.01.2017

Obama Admin Ignored My Proposal in Jan, 2014. Putin Used it in Dec, 2016 And Established A Nationwide Ceasefire in Syria (KIDS Do Not Pay Attention).

Here below is a copy of my short note in this regard (Putin checkmates your from every angles; because you don't have enough knowledge & qualification; because you don't pay attention to a reasonable proposal from an outsider like me. Thus, You "Geniuses" deserve to be beaten).

M. Sirani                    07.01.2017

                  Bashar Asad's Latest Statement.

The United Nations and the Western countries are hoping that the coming Geneva II peace conference would pave the way towards a political transition in Syria. Different evidences, however, show that not all the internal and external actors involved in this conflict, have the same expectation and perception in this matter. Among these, Bashar Asad's recent statement could be mentioned. Last night, the Syrian State TV aired the latest Bashar Asad's statement with regards to Geneva II Peace Conference. In this TV program, Asad was quoted as telling that:

"if we wanted to give up, we would have done so at the very beginning. We are on guard for our country. This issue is not up for discussion"(Dailystar, 2014).

Another example is the Islamic Regime's statement in this matter. Iran has repeatedly claimed that it will not attend the peace conference with precondition, which defines that Asad should leave the power in Syria. From this, we can assume that Iran's puppet "Hezbollah" would reject this precondition and consequently the coming peace conference as well. Given the fact that the Syrian authority, Iran and Hezbollah are the key actors in this conflict and these actors are strongly rejecting the precondition imposed by the West, what would be the possible outcome of Geneva II peace conference?

This brief information shows that there is  A zero-sum game condition between the key actors involved in this conflict. As such, we cannot have high expectation from Geneva II conference. This, however, does not mean the end of the world. We can attend the peace conference and achieve some positive common goals, which would are beneficial to some degree for at least most of the actors that are involved in this conflict. One of these goals would be implementation of a temporarily truce as a first step (later sustainable) between Asad's Regime and the Syrian opposition in the country. If we manage to make a reliable deal in this matter, we would be able to reach the further positive goal in this conflict. This goal would be defeating and dismantling the Jihadist groups in the country by the common help and assistance of Asad's Regime and the Syrian opposition. Should this happen, we would be able to move further and progressively with regards to finding a fundamental solution for the Syrian conflict step by step. Because the situation in Syria has become more complicated. In such a complex environment at this stage, we cannot suddenly jump into the final goal in this conference as the Secretary of State John Kerry wishes. Once again, I repeat my statement: without implementing these two main and primary tasks, we reach nothing with regards to the Syrian conflict.




M. Sirani                                 19.01.2014



Reference:
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Jan-19/244518-assad-says-not-ready-to-give-up-power.ashx#axzz2qqe6gl9G

Nationwide Ceasefire in Syria Proposed by Putin Means Embarrassing Historical Event For Obama Admin and Some Other Countries, Which Wasted Billions of Dollars in Syria Through Their Kindergarten Foreign Policy.

The Chance that Russian Plane Has Crashed in the Black Sea Due to Some Accident, Is Very Low. Terrorism Is A Possibility.

Briefly:

One might have planted an explosive device in the Plane at Sochi Airport.

Note: The existence of An anti-aircraft missile in this case means a total disaster (I hope my prediction in this regard would not come true).




M. Sirani            25.12.2016

Assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Turkey Does Not Mean the Beginning of the Third World War. On the Contrary, it Means The End of the Syrian Civil War Sooner Than You Thought.

Briefly:

Contrary to the claim of some historical-political Copier & Paster, who call themselves "Think Tank" or pundit, this tragic event would not start the Third World War. The assassination of the Russian ambassador along with some previous diplomatic disputes between Turkey and the EU - USA (e.g. EU membership, free-visa for Turkish citizens, F. Gulen, etc) have opened the new door of opportunities for Turkey with regards to Russia, Iran and at the end of the road for China as well.
Based on this brief, we can expect many changes with regards to many events in the Middle East, Central Asian countries and Syria as well. The first and important impact of this newly developed rapprochement is that Bashar Assad would remain in the power.


Note: Assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Turkey Does Not Mean the Beginning of the Third World War. On the Contrary, it Means The End of the Syrian Civil War Sooner Than some people Thought. R. Erdogan would highly likely trade Syria with other opportunities offered by Iran, Russia & China.
 And the winners are: Iran, Russia, Assad's Regime & China.
The losers are,,,,,,,,,,,, you guess this part. 

What will highly likely happen in the next coming months & years? With high probability In short:

A- Turkey would trade Syria in return to some beneficial deals in different terms with Russia, Iran & China

B- Turkey, Russia and Iran would agree to put an end to the Syrian civil war.

C- Turkey, Russia, Iran and Assad's regime would beat the hell out of ISIS in Syria & consequently in Iraq.

D- Pro-Turkey rebels would get amnesty to remain and live in Syria or move to Turkey.

E- China, Russia and Iran would expand their relations with Turkey as much as they can. In this respect, offering the Shanghai Treaty membership to Turkey could be mentioned. This means a historical crashing point for NATO. 

F- What would happen to 3 million refugees sheltered in Turkey? If the USA & EU would not cover the costs, Turkey would open its borders toward the EU. This means influx of millions of refugees toward the EU countries. 

G- The combination of these events indicate a fact and that is that the entire Middle East and Central Asian countries would experience some type of change/s in different terms.  

And many unpleasant events for the USA and the EU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.

*****All the predictions noted above (And many more other unpleasant events) would come true in the next coming months & years with HIGH PROBABILITY, if the USA & the EU would not fundamentally change their policies with regards to many events in the Middle East and Turkey.  


M. Sirani                 20.12.2016 

Angela Merkel Does Not Have Any Chance At All To Be Re-Elected Again In the Next Year Election in Germany; Unless A Miracle Happens.

Totally wrong domestic as well as foreign policy would lead to a serious disaster.


Note: Some people still don't get it. But the EU is pregnant with many events in the next coming months & years. I don't see any good picture in different terms in this regard; not at all. I have repeatedly warned about this issue in my earlier posts. I repeat it again: The EU is in a serious S**** dangerous situation.


In my essay entitled "An Assessment About the Current Civil War in Syria"(2013) in the section "Some Consequences of the Syrian Civil War", i warned about various terrorist activities, which would happen in the Western countries & the EU (All politicians & pundits ignored my warning). What we are observing currently in Germany, France , etc is just the tip of the iceberg. The catastrophic terrorist activities would begin, when the Syrian civil war is over and those so-called "rebels" have returned to their own countries.   




M. Sirani                  19.12.2016    

Assassination of Russian Ambassador in Turkey Not Only Deteriorates the Overall Chaotic Situation of the Middle East & Probably Ukraine, But Also Put EU-Turkey Membership And Free-Visa Request for Turkish Citizens At Serious Risk (Some Primary Consequences).

Another consequence:

Idlib will face a devastating bloodbath in the next couple of days.


M. Sirani                               19.12.2016

Stop Whining. Do You Want Really Counter Iran in the Middle East? This is Your Only Solution So Far.

It Should be added that changing the price of oil & gas is just one positive side effect of my Master Plan; A plan that without firing a single bullet can change the course of many events for good in the whole Middle East. 

The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. We should bear in mind that finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do specially at this critical juncture based on some reasons particularly: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

The Questions:

1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.

2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere. 

M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015

Three Biggest Historical Mistakes of the USA and Its Western Allies Since 1990 Onward (Maybe It's Too Late For A Wake Up Call).

Briefly:

Here below are the three biggest historical mistakes of the USA and its Western allies since 1990.

A- Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc, the USA and its western allies should have not supported and promoted any Islamic political system and group (Shiite, Sunni, etc) in the entire Asia, the Middle East & Africa; which they didn't.

B- Following the collapse of the socialism bloc in 1990, the USA and its western allies should have fully & respectfully integrated Russia into their orbit; which they didn't.

C- Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, the USA and its western allies should have fundamentally adjusted and changed their foreign policy with regards to China; which they didn't.

Imagine; What type of world had we, if the USA and its western allies would have followed the three policies mentioned above properly and professionally?

Note: The lack of these three policies mentioned above has cost a lot and will cost a lot for the USA and its western allies in the long term (beyond next 20-30 years and further; unless a miracle happens). We cannot reverse the historical clock back to those years; i fully understand that. The reason, i briefly explored these policies is the fact that the current U.S. administration (Obama) and its western allies are still moving in the totally wrong direction, which cost them much more than what they have paid since 1990 up until now.


M. Sirani                           14.12.2016

Important Development: Kyrgyz Parliament Ratifies Memorandum on Accession of India, Pakistan to The Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

As i predicted earlier through many short notes:

Iran will join the Shanghai Treaty in the future. The overall consequences of the membership of India, Pakistan and Iran in the SCO are predictable in different terms.


Note: Those geniuses decision makers can enjoy the result of their "Kindergarten Foreign Policy" now (Catch Iran; if you can).


M. Sirani                           14.12.2016

Warning: Iran's President Hassan Rouhani Orders Nuclear-Fuelled Warships (It's Time For Those Geniuses To Welcome Iran to International Nuclear Club).

Briefly:

A- Iran is one of the main shareholders of "ThyssenKrupp" since many years ago.

B- ThyssenKrupp has a contract to build three submarines for Israel, which they can carry nuclear missiles & warheads.

C- Just recently have been exposed that some secret details of ThyssenKrupp was stolen couple of months ago through some cyber attacks.

D- Iran has decided to develop nuclear-fuelled warships.

E- A nuclear warship or submarine needs above 50-60 % enriched uranium.


Note: Special thanks to geniuses Obama administration and its EU counterparts, which have facilitated the best path for Iranian Regime to become a nuclear armed state in the future in a very "legal & legitimate manner" without any problem.

Those geniuses should clean up their nuclear mess in the entire Middle East.


M. Sirani                        13.12.2016

Trump Administration is Missing "A Global Strategist" So Far. Without A Reliable Expert in This Regard, We Will Observe More Chaos & Confusion in International Arena Much Worse Than 8 Years Obama Administration.

Warning: The Civil War in Syria & Iraq Should Be Stopped As Soon As Possible; Otherwise the EU Would Face A Huge Problems in 2017.

Briefly:

Disintegration of the EU in 2017 means influx of millions of refugees toward EU countries. The EU countries should clean up the mess quickly as possible; before it's too late. Some geniuses in the EU capitals have absolutely no idea what is waiting for them in 2017.

Note: The result of your wrong policy with regards to the Middle East, Syria and Iraq is haunting you badly.



M. Sirani                           08.12.2016

Breaking: ThyssenKrupp (Germany Company) Secret Details Have Been Stolen Through Cyber Attack (A Serious Threat For Israel & The Rest of the World).

Briefly:

This event & its negative consequences in different terms including militarily & security matters are enormous.

Simply: The Iranian Regime is one of the shareholders of ThyssenKrupp. This company has a contract to build three submarines for Israel, which can carry nuclear missile or warhead.

Imagine the overall consequences.

Note: As long as you are in the hibernation mode, the Iranian Regime beats the hell out of you by all means in every battlefield. Shut down the kindergarten and do your job properly & professionally; before it's too late.



M. Sirani                           08.12.2016 

Total Confusion, Chaos & Incoherent Moves in Foreign Policy of Current UK Government (Disastrous in Short & Long Term).

Clean the mess up; before it's too late.


M. Sirani                   08.12.2016

Nero Burned Rome; Matteo Renzi Burned Not Only Italy, But Also is Going to Burn the Entire EU By His Wrong Referendum.

The collapse of the EU has been started.


M. Sirani                   5.12.2016

Brexit and Now Turkey, Greece, Italy And France! The EU is Not in A Good Shape; The Union is On the Verge of Collapse; Unless A Miracle Happens.

Briefly:

The chance for a miracle in International Relations or International Politics is very low or i might say nearly impossible. Thus, Good Luck Chancellor Merkel.


Note: There are some policies, which in case of implementation, they might function like "Damage Control Policies" and prevent the total collapse of the EU. But, i'm not sure about the 100% successful result of such policies at this stage, due to many reasons mainly A- Timing, B- Highly Bureaucratic-complicated structure & nature of the EU.   


M. Sirani                            04.12.2016

Some Simple Questions for M. Renzi.

Briefly:

1- What type of positive policies have you implemented for the overall well-being of majority of Italian people in the last couple of years?

2- How did you expect to obtain extra power and a YES-VOTE by such a poor resume?

3- Who were your genius advisers with regard to this referendum?


Note: Unbelievable; considering such a poor resume, you are asking the people to offer you additional power!!! How do some people come up with such a suicidal move? It's really shocking me. 


M. Sirani                              04.12.2016 

Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).

Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).




Briefly:

I don't want to go through my previous short notes dated couple of months or years ago in this regard. I just re-upload some of my short notes- predictions since last week. Once again, i repeat my warning: If the USA and the EU would not solve their differences with Turkey in a diplomatic, logical and reasonable manner, there is high probability that Turkey would join the Shanghai Treaty or totally bandwagon to China-Russia somewhere in the near future. Such a move would change the balance of power profoundly. Needless to explore the winners & losers of such a move and its consequences in different terms.



M. Sirani                          04.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous warnings in this regard.

1- Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means 

Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.

2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.

3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.

4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (President Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).

Note: Whether we like it or not, President Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 

M. Sirani                24.11.2016

2- The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU. 

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries has caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank).  



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

3- Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency. 

Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

Alexander Van der Bellen, the Pro-EU Candidate Won the Presidential Election in Austria (Don't Expect Such A Result With High Certainty in the Case of Italy & France in the Future).

Briefly: Don't be too happy and don't expect such a pro-European results in Italy and France in the future.

Just remember: Austria is surrounded by other EU countries and is located in the middle of the Union. The country does not have direct access to international water like Italy, France, Spain or Germany. Considering this fact and the notion that we are currently experiencing a global economic downturn, choosing a far-right wing candidate and consequently leaving the EU could have been a huge disaster (In different terms including trade) for Austria at this stage.

This is just one of those small but important details that some genius so-called "Think Tanks (I call them DING DANGS or Living Copier & Paster) do not pay attention to it in their jargon analysis. 

As such, don't be too happy and don't expect that such a Pro-European result with high certainty and probability might happen for Italy and France in the future, in my opinion.

Note: The EU is on the verge of collapse. 

M. Sirani                       04.12.2016 

Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency.

Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016

It Seems Germany is Allowing Other EU Citizens To Join Its Army (By Such A Suicidal Move, You Cannot Save the Shaky Structure of the EU).

Briefly:

If this news is true, the only thing i can tell to the politicians in Germany is:

Are you okay?

By such a suicidal move, you cannot save the shaky structure of the EU. If we lived in Perpetual Peace Community of E. Kant (WHICH, WE ARE NOT) such an idea might work.

Note: The high level of confusion of some people makes me totally speechless. O. V. Bismarck is spinning in his grave by such a news. 


M. Sirani                      03.12.2016

Arrivederci M. Renzi.

Warning: "Nobel Peace Laureate" Aung San Suu Kyi Would Drag Myanmar Into A New Civil War & Chaos.

Briefly:

The totally wrong and harsh policies of Aung San Suu kyi with regard to the Rohingya people would finally force the Myanmar Muslim people to revolt somewhere in the future. Such a hypothetical event would highly likely plunge the entire country into chaos and another civil war. In such an event, the Myanmar army would highly likely once again seize the power in the country through a new military coup.

Needless to explore the negative consequences of such an event at national, regional or global level.


M. Sirani                         02.12.2016            

The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU.

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank). 




M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

There is High Probability for Both FrancExit And ItalyExit. Either FrancExit or ItalyExit or Both Would Highly Likely Lead to the Total Collapse of the EU (Remember My Prediction).

Should this happen, Germany would lose a lot in different terms. Honestly, i don't see a bright future for Germany in this regard based on many reasons.

M. Sirani                     28.11.2016

What Most of the High Ranking Politicians & Distinguished Pundits Don't Get it (Remember My Short Prediction).

Globally, we are passing through a new transformation phase. The reason that confirms my statement in this matter is the notion that the current international laws, conventions, regulations and institutions in different terms do not function properly anymore. What we observed in Brexit and recently in the USA are the observable signs of the collapse of current world order. We are in the beginning of new era. An era that like Scientific Revolution or Industrial Revolution would deeply shape & change the course of our history in the future.  

We should design a totally new world order (some areas need fundamental change & replacement, some other areas need adjustment & reform) and shape the future events in a correct and proper direction. Otherwise, the gradual collapse of current world order, which is accompanied with destruction and chaos, would unintentionally & forcefully drag us to unknown risky directions. This is a very dangerous & scary scenario.


Note: We don't feel the Earth's motion, while the Earth is orbiting around the Sun. Like this example, most of the people do not experience & observe what i have briefly explained above. 
President-Elect Trump has correctly identified some of these structural problems. This trend is clearly visible in some of his speeches during the presidential race. How would he deal with these problems; how would he design a new world order to deal with these issues, are some questions, which it is too soon to answer them with high accuracy at this stage. 



M. Sirani                            25.11.2016 

Warning: If the EU would Not Be Able to Solve Its Problem With Turkey, The EU Would Experience the First Wave/s of Refugees (And Terror) In the Near Future.

And Terror: Due to the fact that ISIS or other Islamic Terrorist Groups would deploy their followers into the EU among refugees.


Note: Obama administration and the EU have bribed Turkey; have closed their eyes to various regressive developments in Turkey throughout the last couple of years. Now is Payback Time. The lack of a proper agreement between EU & Turkey would hit all the EU countries in different terms. Within the EU, those states, which have the large numbers of Turks and Kurds citizens would suffer the most; due to the additional clash between Turks & Kurds.  I don't see a pretty future for Germany not only in this case but also in other areas. 

As such, i don't think A. Merkel government would be able to survive in the upcoming political turmoil in Germany. 

M. Sirani                   25.11.2016

President-Elect Trump's NATO Remarks and The Newly Approved EU Army. Who Should Offer D. Trump An Apology?

Briefly:

Throughout the last couple of months, D. Trump has been criticizing NATO based on two main reasons as follows. A- NATO is obsolete. B- All the members of NATO should pay their fair shares.

Both arguments of D. Trump in this regard are logical and correct based on many reasons. For example, NATO is the most powerful military entity in the world. But, when it comes to a small state like Afghanistan and small group like Taliban, NATO has not been able to establish peace and instability in that country after nearly 15 years war. So is the case of ISIS. NATO couldn't stop or prevent various terrorist attacks of ISIS followers across the EU. The argument of D. Trump in this regard is totally correct; simply because the nature of warfare in some areas around the world has changed. At the present time asymmetrical & proxy war are the most used warfare around the world. When it comes to this type of war, NATO is totally paralyzed and obsolete, whether those NATO Generals like this argument are not. This is a fact.

When it comes to paying the fair share by all NATO members, D. Trump's argument is also correct. This issue would be totally understandable, if we consider some other factors such as A- The current national debt of the USA (Nearly $20 Trillion dollars), B- The total amount of trade deficit of the USA, C- The competitive economic power of the USA in comparison with other rising economic powers around the world, the high rates unemployment in the USA, increasing level of poverty among US citizens and many other factors.

Despite the fact that these two arguments of D. Trump were / are logical & reasonable, many politicians and pundits within the USA and around the world accused him in a very unfair and unethical manner by saying that Trump would weaken NATO or Trump would dissolve NATO.
After all these unjust and inaccurate accusation, we hear that the EU parliament has recently approved a resolution, which would allow the creation of the EU Army.

Due to the fact that establishment of such a military entity parallel to NATO would fundamentally weaken NATO, someone should ask all those critics: who has dissolved and weakened NATO? D. Trump or those genius, who designed & approved the creation of the EU Army? Who should offer D. Trump an apology in this regard?



M. Sirani                       25.11.2016   

The EU Parliament Has Approved A Resolution To Create "The EU Army". (This Project Will Highly Likely Fail).

Regardless of the overall impact of this new army on NATO, overlapping and clash between these two military entities, this project will highly likely fail due to many reasons particularly the notion that the entire EU is not in a very good shape in different terms at the present time. To put it simply, the EU is on the verge of collapse. As such, creating a NEW EU ARMY cannot like a glue keep different parts of the EU together.


Note: This project is based on some unrealistic & illogical assessments and will highly likely fail. Both, A. Merkel and F. Hollande are committing political suicide and also are increasing the debts for Germany & France by this move; of course if they would implement this project.



M. Sirani                     25.11.2016

Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means

Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.

2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.

3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.

4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).

Note: Whether we like it or not, Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 

M. Sirani                24.11.2016

Remember My Prediction: The EU is Not in A Very Good Shape; The Collapse of the Union Somewhere in the Future is Highly Likely Inevitable (The EU Had 26 Years Time; But It Didn't Use It Properly).

Thanks to "Kindergarten Foreign Policy" of Obama Administration, The EU and NATO, R. Erdogan Says: Turkey Could Join The Shanghai Treaty Bloc (I predicted such a move Briefly Two Years Ago).

Those genius policy makers in Obama administration, the EU and NATO are left with two options as follows:

A- They should bribe Turkey "once again" (In addition to $6 billion amid refugees) in order to keep Turkey where it is now in terms of EU, NATO & the USA.

B- With crying eyes, they should watch how Turkey is joining the Shanghai Treaty somewhere in the future.

Note: What would be the negative consequences of such a move in different terms? (I'm not sure those genius in Obama administration, the EU and NATO have a clear clue in this regard).


M. Sirani                           20.11.2016

It Seems Russia is Agreed to Sell Anti-Aircraft S-400 Systtem to Turkey; While NATO is in the Hibernation Mode.

Egypt & Turkey would highly likely bandwagoning to Russia somewhere in the future; thanks to Kindergarten Foreign Policy of Obama admin and those genius decision makers in NATO, who are physically living in 2016, but when it comes to their mentality, they are living in 1960s & 70s.


M. Sirani                19.11.2016 

Many People Probably Hundreds of Millions Around the World Didn't & Still Don't Get It That Trump's Victory in the USA Saved The Entire World From A Possible Third World War.

President-Elect Trump Has Not Arrived in the White House; But Trump Tsunami Has Already Started to Hit the World.

Briefly: (The Backlash of Kindergarten Foreign Policy of Some Kids)

Just follow the various development around the world.

Bulgaria: A pro-socialist- Russia President won the election in Bulgaria.
Moldova: A pro-Russia President will highly likely win the election in Moldova.


Note: The unnecessary conflict in Ukraine has also played an important role in these developments as well. Many changes in different terms are ahead of all us no matter where we live.

M. Sirani                       13.11.2016

Brexit======>Americaexit======>Highly Likely Francexit + Italyeixt======>Collapse of the EU

Briefly: The EU had 26 golden years opportunity; but it didn't use it properly. I believe it is too late to reverse the time back again and implement a new series of policy to save itself from the upcoming mandatory collapse. If my prediction would come true, Germany would lose the most in both within the EU region & consequently at global level.

If Trump administration plays smart, the USA can win and gain a lot in different terms at global level.


M. Sirani                      13.11.2016

The Political Joke of 2016.

Briefly:

A group of U.S. based genius think tanks, who couldn't have a correct analysis and prediction about a simple event like the result of recent presidential election in the USA, has offered President-Elect D. J. Trump their expertise with regards to various development and events around the world.

Note: I'm speechless.

M. Sirani                      12.11.2016 

We Need A New World Order Urgently; The Current One Does Not Function Properly. Brexit & Americaexit are the First Alarming Signs.

Briefly:

Different factors indicate a fact that current international institutions, laws and regulations do not function properly. The effects of such weaknesses in different terms are Chrystal Clear and observable everywhere in both developed and underdeveloped countries. There are ongoing civil wars in many areas, while the United Nations is unable to solve them. There are increasing rates of unemployment all around the world. Large numbers of people nearly 65 million people are refugees or displaced people and many other examples.

All examples noted above, indicate a fact that we need a New World Order. Those superpower or regional powers, which do not understand this important factor and do not do anything about it, will undoubtedly decline in different terms & forms.


M. Sirani                    09.11.2016  

Clinton Campaign is Worried About Trump Proposal Amid Deeper & Further Prosecution of Clinton Activities & Clinton Foundation.

Briefly: Based on many data, the majority of U.S. citizens do not trust the political system and institutions in their country. This problem should be solved immediately & broadly.

For the sake of mainly A- safety and security of the USA and the U.S. citizens, B- improving the rule of law & order within U.S. political system, and C- Removing the gap between the people and political system, President Trump should fulfill his promise in this regard. If President Trump ignores this important task, he will lose some of his popularity & credibility among the public not only among the American people but also in the entire world. This issue would be worse than the case of "Closing Guantanamo Prison" for Obama; due to the fact that the scope of damage and destruction that Clinton's activities caused for U.S. political system and citizens in different terms are much higher and bigger than the case of Guantanamo. Moreover, If President Trump would not pursue the justice in case of ClintonGate, Clinton and her powerful allies would paralyze Trump administration in different terms and would not allow him to reach the end of his first 4 years term. Thus, along with those Ethical Reforms, this case should be re-investigated again and justice should be served. Such a move, would empower & strengthen Trump administration in different terms whether at domestic or foreign arena and would be a positive historical lesson for future generations of the USA. It could be: A Type of Unforgettable Justifiable Legacy, which has closed a dirty and dark chapter in the entire U.S. history. 

Note: What is worried me the most: Obama would give Amnesty to Clintons. 


M. Sirani                             09.11.2016 

Some Important Lessons of 2016 U.S. Election.

Briefly:

Without any doubt, the recent presidential election of the USA has had different types of lessons for different types of people not only within the USA but also around the world. Among all these lessons some of them are worthy to understand & consider as follows.

1- This election exposed the deep and broad scope and scale of corruption, criminal, illegal and illegitimate activities of various parts of U.S. political system for the entire world community.

2- Along with Brexit, the recent U.S. election and wining D. Trump as the next president indicates a fact that the collapse of Globalization Era has started. The experience of couple of decades globalization has had only poverty, unemployment, marginalization, disaster, chaos, tension and war (etc) for the majority of people all around the world. Throughout all these years, the corrupt politicians and pundits have done nothing to solve all these fundamental problems. As such, the majority of people have tried to bypass the corrupt politicians and pundits and fix their problems by this type of reaction like Brexit and voting for D. Trump. To put it simply, the entire world needs a new "World Order". The current world order needs fundamental adjustment and reforms.

3- The UK and the USA are two of the most economic powers in the world. Brexit and the result of recent election in the USA will impact the entire world not only in economic term but also in other arenas. As an example, some other countries might highly likely decide to follow the path of the UK and the USA in this matter. In this respect, France is one of the best candidate. If France would follow the path of UK & USA, the entire EU would highly likely collapse.

4- This election exposed the dishonesty and untrustworthy of large parts of media, pundits and politicians around the world for the entire international community. Throughout the last couple of months, for example, we all observed numerous polls, which showed Clinton was leading; not once or twice; hundreds times. If these types of polls were a few, we could have come to a logical conclusion such as "Scientific Error" or mistake. But couple of hundreds polls showing Clinton was leading, is not a simple Scientific Error. The result of recent U.S. election and wining D. Trump by a landslide, however, indicates a fast that media, politicians and pundits fabricated the polls and lied to all people around the world. As a result, the majority of people around the world do not trust media, some politicians and pundits anymore. Building the trust between ordinary people and the group of media, pundits and politicians would take couple of years time. This is a devastating news for all political systems around the world; due to the fact that media play an important role in every single society around the world. In addition, Those, who have academically studied Statistics & Research Methods remember Dewey-Truman error, From now on, all the books & articles in this subject, instead of Dewey-Truman error, would use Clinton-Trump (fake & fabricated polls).


M. Sirani                                         09.11.2016  

Congratulations To the American People And the Entire World: The Criminal, Corrupt And Warmonger Hillary Clinton Was Not Elected.

As i Predicted In Many Occasions, Since nearly 2 Years Ago, A Republican i.e. Donald Trump Was Elected As The Next President of the USA.

Without Cheating & Fraud, Trump will Highly Likely Win the Election By A Landslide.

Be Prepared For Series of Uprisings & Revolts Across the USA In the Next Coming Days; If Trump Will Not Be Elected.

Briefly:

In a new statement, FBI Director J. Comey states that FBI would not press any charge against Hillary Clinton. FBI’s unfair, unjust and unethical reactions happen, while every single criminal, illegal and illegitimate activities of Hillary Clinton could face a trial and severe legal punishment and imprisonment; while the majority of American people have been reading numerous leaked scandalous emails of Hillary Clinton and her allies on daily bases, whether through Wikileaks or any other sources. 

Comey's statement in this matter is not a pleasant event for tens of millions Americans, who are supporting D. J. Trump. FBI Director J. Comey should wish Trump will be elected as the next U.S. President. Otherwise, the unfair, unjust and unethical decision of J. Comey would enforce tens of thousands Americans, who deeply are sicking tired of corruption within U.S. political system, to revolt across the USA in the next coming days. FBI Director J. Comey should understand that the majority of Americans don't tolerate anymore such unfair, unjust and unethical behavior. If J. Comey has enough knowledge and data about high rates unemployment, poverty, inequality before the law, large numbers of marginalized people, homeless, discrimination, food stamps, etc, he would have not released such a statement at such a historical critical moment. The statement of J. Comey released today, is the biggest mistake of FBI and its Director in my opinion. 

Note: If Trump will not be elected, the waves of uprising & revolt will hit many places in the USA. FBI Director Comey should consider:

A- The Large numbers of marginalized Afro-Americans, Hispanics and in short minorities, who are not satisfied with their conditions in different terms.

Plus

B- The Large numbers of Trump supporters, who are sicking tired of corruption within the U.S. political system.

Plus

C- The hibernated followers of ISIS, Al-Qaeda and those radical Islamic terrorist groups, who are waiting for a chaotic environment to pursue their terrorist activities. 

Important: Does FBI Director Comey or any other U.S. politician understand what would happen to the USA, when the combination of these three actors mentioned above simultaneously would erupt?
(Whether some like it or not; i don't care. But i believe BUNCH OF INEXPERIENCED KIDS ARE GOVERNING THE USA. These bunch of kids not only are ruining the USA in different terms, but also causing enormous instability, chaos and disater around the world; simply because they are kids; simply because they don't have proper knowledge, working experience and qualification).

M. Sirani                      06.11.2016

The Arab Spring is Causing The Western Spring.

Briefly: (Those, who follow the news & development in various parts of the world, understand what i'm talking about).

Colin Powell designed "Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative". Implementation of this plan caused massive uprising, turmoil and instability known as "Arab Spring" across the Middle East & North Africa.

The backlash of this totally wrong plan in different terms e.g. influx of refugees and the threat of radical Islamic terrorism is targeting the western countries and is causing the Western Spring.
In this respect, Brexit, the diminishing popularity of some political leaders in the West e.g. Angela Markel in Germany, the rise of right wing political parties across the EU and winning the current U.S. election by D. Trump could be mentioned.


Note: None of these genius Think Tanks (in my opinion Ding Dangs) has written a simple essay in this regard. These genius are good only in Copying & Pasting the historical events and nothing else.  


M. Sirani                5.11.2016

What Did I Predict Nearly Two Years Ago About 2016 U.S. Election?

The Next President of the USA Will Be A Republican.

The Next President of the USA Will Be A Republican.

I don't believe to astrology or prediction of an event in the future based on some type of dream or nightmare. But with high probability, i can say that the next president of the USA will be a Republican; unless a fundamental miracle happens in the foreign policy of the Obama administration in the next two years. If the Republican party chooses good and smart candidate and vice president (Not someone like Sara Palin; with all due respect to her), the party will win the next election by highest margin.

In short, i'm not a fan of Republican party or Neocon group or so-called warmongers. But, when it comes to the foreign policy, we (most of the people around the world) knew what the President Bush did want; we knew where his foreign policy would end up; we knew what was his main objective in every move. But with the Obama administration such a prediction is almost impossible. The administration moves first and then in the middle of the way stop in order to find a solution. In this respect, different examples could be mentioned. The latest chemical attack in Syria, which took place on 21.08.21013 is an example; when the President said the U.S. would attack Syria and later he changed his decision.

The recent unnecessary tension in Ukraine is another example. Such an unnecessary tension, which was based on wrong analysis and miscalculation of the administration has dragged Ukraine into a devastating and destructive civil war. This event, in addition, has caused many economic, political and social problems for Ukraine and the whole EU in different scales. Who/ how/when do you want to solve the problem in Ukraine? What did you achieve in this conflict so far?

The current war against ISIS is another example of mismanagement and miscalculation of the Obama administration. The administration has begun a war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria and it has called it "Systematic Counter Terrorism Strategy". But there are lots of flaw and ambiguity in this plan as i have discussed some of them in my short essay entitled: Obama's plan against ISIS: a fundamental solution or opening a new Pandora's Box in the Middle East. As i follow the news, i have come to the conclusion that this is not a Counter Terrorism Strategy, because words including "Strategy" have their own meaning and definition. What we are witnessing in Iraq and Syria are just some sudden tactical military operations in Iraq and Syria without any real future perspective.

The same as other examples mentioned above, the administration has begun with some move in Iraq and Syria; but they don't know where exactly they are going. They have started the war; but in the Middle of the way they have come up with the idea that they need ground forces; because the air strikes alone do not function properly. They have started the war in a hope that the moderate Syrian opposition gain the momentum on the ground against Assad's Regime; but in the middle of the way they have understood that the Syrian moderate opposition does not have proper capacity to do that. So is the case of Iraqi forces. So is the case of members of the coalition. Some of them have supported the ISIS and Al-Nusra front in different terms for many years. Now, they are members of a coalition against ISIS. Some like Turkey performs prisoners swap with ISIS, while innocent American and English journalists and aid workers such as Alan Henning would be beheaded by ISIS, etc.

Based on all mentioned above and many other examples, i predict that the next president of the USA will be a Republican. 

Foreign policy based on spontaneous and impulsive decision would undoubtedly end up to a huge fiasco.    


Sirani                              07.10.2014

Warning: Global Economic Downturn: Stock Market Will Highly Likely Go Down At Global Level For A While; The Price of Gold Will Also Increase for A While (Lucky Canada Signed CETA Deal With EU & Saved Itself To Some Extent).

Briefly: Trump will win the election in a landslide.

At global level, some countries have a very slow economic growth or some are in reality experiencing an economic recession. Economically, things are getting more chaotic & worse and we will experience more economic downturn. How far or how deep and how long? I cannot say anything in these matters at the present. But i predict, some countries might highly likely experience deeper recession, or some type of double-dip recession and in some extreme cases (In terms of prolonging & timing) some countries might experience economic depression for a while.

Note: Canada & Mexico will be hit badly. (I'm fully aware that Canada was one of those few states, which didn't experience economic depression or recession in 2008 global economic crisis. Regarding the upcoming economic downturn, i should imply that Canada is lucky; due to the fact that just couple days ago, Canada signed CETA deal with EU. Canada has saved itself to some extent. But not Mexico.


M. Sirani                   03.11.2016   

Moody's Analytics Model Predicts Today That Hillary Clinton Will Win the Election By A Landslide. I "Mehran Sirani" Say Donald Trump Will Win the Election By a Landslide Based on Many Reasons & Factors.

Let see an internationally famous organization like Moody is predicting correctly or Mehran Sirani. (Bunch of copiers & pasters call themselves analyst or expert).

M. Sirani                  02.11.2016