Re-Upload: In Case of Failure in Lausanne, Do Not Repeat the Same Mistake (01.04.2015).

Do not repeat the same mistake.

In case of a possible failure in nuclear negotiation with Iran, do not repeat the same mistake that you did following the latest chemical attack in Syria in August, 2013. In other words,  don't rush to a hasty decision such as a military confrontation with Tehran. Such a move will make the situation worse than ever without any positive outcomes in different terms. There is a middle approach that can put excessive pressure on Iran and to a large extent can paralyze the Islamic Regime in both domestic as well as foreign affairs; a middle approach that has not been tried yet in an appropriate and professional manner.


M. Sirani                   30.03.2015

What Does Lifting the Sanctions on Iran Mean to the International Community? (Just An Example).

Today, the Islamic Regime's Deputy for Arab-African Affairs "Hossein Amir-Abdollahian" In an interview in Kuwait (During the conference about Syria) said that since the beginning of conflict in Syria, Iran has given nearly $ 4.2 billion dollars (So called Humanitarian help) to Assad's Regime. We should not forget that this is a amount of money that an Iranian official states. The real amount should be undoubtedly much more than $ 4.2 billion dollars.

Moreover, we should bear in mind, that this large amount of money, which is not the only one, has been given to Assad's Regime, while Iran itself has experienced a series of harsh sanctions. Such a financial support without any doubt should be applied for some other terrorist groups across the Middle East as well.

Imagine what would Iran do, when all the sanctions would be lifted.
Should this happen, would any powerful state or international entity be able to control the expansionist-hegemonic behavior of Iran in the Middle East and beyond that? The answer is easy to predict: You are digging your graves with your own hands.



M. Sirani                           31.03.2015

The Possible Final Outcome of Lausanne Nuclear Talks.

Releasing a draft, which indicates that:

They have been some progress in nuclear talks with Iran. The six world powers and Iran are agreed that they have some disagreements in various issues and they will continue to further negotiation in the near future.



Such a draft might save the Obama administration in the U.S. domestic arena, but not in the international arena particularly among U.S. close allies in the Middle East. But let's be honest with ourselves: is this a huge achievement after more than a decade cat and mouse struggle and eighteen months continuously diplomatic marathon negotiations with Iran?


Note: It's interesting that the Islamic Regime has been managed to delude the international community in various occasions by using Good Cup/Bad Cup policy up until yesterday. Since yesterday, the Islamic Regime and its lobbyists around the world have begun with a broad media campaign in order to once again delude the international community by implementing a newly developed policy; The Dignity Policy.

Are you interested to identify the Iranian Regime's lobbyists around the world? Search some terms such as: Iran's dignity, Iran's dignity is important, Is not the nuclear issue, the dignity of Iranian is at stake,,,,, in the last 24 hours in Google search engine. You will find many results from Foreign Affairs Magazine to anywhere else.

These Iranian Regime lovers: Do not talk about the dignity of Iranian people, which has been violated by barbaric repression of the Islamic Regime since 36 years ago; they don't talk about the dignity of nearly 70% of the Iranian people, who are living under poverty line, while the Islamic Regime financially funds various terrorist groups around the world; they do not talk about the dignity of Iran as a country and the Iranian people, which has been violated through China and Russia's exploitation, etc.




M. Sirani                          31.03.2015

Do Not Repeat The Same Mistake.

In case of a possible failure in nuclear negotiation with Iran, do not repeat the same mistake that you did following the latest chemical attack in Syria in August, 2013. In other words,  don't rush to a hasty decision such as a military confrontation with Tehran. Such a move will make the situation worse than ever without any positive outcomes in different terms. There is a middle approach that can put excessive pressure on Iran and to a large extent can paralyze the Islamic Regime in both domestic as well as foreign affairs; a middle approach that has not been tried yet in an appropriate and professional manner.


M. Sirani                   30.03.2015

Lifting All the Sanctions Imposed on Iran Immediately is Nearly Impossible And Too Risky.

Briefly:

The decision makers in Tehran including Ayatollah Khamenei have repeatedly insisted that, all the sanctions imposed on Iran should be lifted immediately after a nuclear deal with 5+1 is finalized. Is this demand achievable and free of any risk at this stage or not? In order to find a reasonable answer to this question, it would be wise to briefly explore different types of sanctions, which have been imposed on Iran throughout the past couple of years.

Generally speaking, four types of sanctions have been imposed on Iran during the past couple of years. These are as follows.

1- The first type of sanctions are those that have been imposed on Iran by the United Nations Security Council. These sanctions can be divided into two groups: 1-1- The sanctions, which are related to Iran's nuclear activity. These sanctions have been imposed on Iran due to the lack of cooperation and compliance with IAEA standard regulations, rules and demands. Up until this moment, Iran has not been able to fully meet its commitments in this matter according to different IAEA reports. Visiting Parchin site and accepting additional protocol, which would allow IAEA inspectors to visit Iran's nuclear plants in an unlimited and unexpected manners, are among those issues, that Iran has not cooperated with IAEA up until this moment. The lack of fully cooperation with IAEA raises some questions as follows.

Would it be reasonable that the Security Council lifts the sanctions imposed on Iran without any IAEA approval in this matter? Would Iran fully cooperate with IAEA at this critical stage and in the future? Can any powerful state or international entity give a guarantee to the rest of the world in this vital matter? This is not, however, the only obstacle with regards to lifting this type of sanctions imposed on Iran. Because, there is another type of sanction, which is to some extent related to expansionist behavior and Iran's support of various terrorist groups.

1-2- As an example, the Arm Embargo,  which has been imposed on Iran in March 2007 through the UN Security Council Resolution 1747. How would the Security Council deal with this type of sanction in a emerging nuclear agreement with Iran? Would a nuclear deal with Iran fundamentally change the expansionist-hegemonic behavior Of Iran or decrease the level of terrorist activities of the Islamic Regime in a sense that gives a blank check to the Security Council to lift the Arm Embargo? Wouldn't lifting the Arm Embargo facilitate the best opportunity for Iran for its further adventurous conquest in the Middle East and North Africa?

2- The second type of sanctions are those that have been imposed on Iran by the EU. Lifting these types of sanctions is not easy but it is not an impossible task; although all the 28 members of the EU do not have a coherent policy toward Iran in this matter based on many reasons.

3-  The third type of sanctions are those that have been imposed on Iran by the U.S. President and some other entity within current U.S. administration, for example by U.S. Treasury Department. In this respect, we are not facing a serious problem at all. In fact, this is the most easiest part of the story, due to the fact that the Obama administration is ready to sacrifice everything no matter what and how for a nuclear deal with Iran in order to save its foreign policy sinking ship. In this respect, Khamenei's statement is unbelievably correct and true, when he says: The current U.S. government needs a nuclear deal urgently more than Iran.  

4- The fourth type of sanctions are those that have been imposed on Iran by the U.S. Congress. Given the fact that the Republicans have seized the majority and power in both U.S. Senate and Congress, lifting these types of sanctions might not be an impossible mission but without any doubt would be a huge task for the Obama administration. Due to the weak and shaky structure of the emerging deal and rightly lack of trust to the Islamic Regime, the Republicans not only might not cooperate with the current administration, but also they might drag President Obama to an impeachment process in this important matter.

In addition to these complications, we should carefully pay attention to an important point as follows. We should not forget that these sanctions are the result of massive efforts and diplomatic struggles in different terms among various actors throughout the couple of years time. Considering the inherent lack of transparency and accountability of the Islamic Regime with regards to the international laws and conventions, lifting all the sanctions immediately at this stage without any reliable and credible verification is neither logical, nor reasonable. Thus, it would be wise for the international community to temporarily suspend the sanctions in a sense that they would be easily and quickly implemented again without any hassle caused by Russia and China (e.g. Veto), if Iran would not meet its commitments in this matter somewhere in the future.      


As briefly explored above, lifting all the sanctions imposed on Iran immediately at this stage would face some serious legal, technical and political complications in different terms. In addition, lifting all the sanctions at this stage, when Iran's behavior in this matter has not been tested and verified yet, is a too risky move due to the lack of transparency and accountability of the Islamic Regime and the notion that the Iranian Regime has always violated the international laws, regulations and norms in various occasions. Based on all briefly explored above, we come up with two serious questions with regards to a solid and verifiable nuclear deal with  Iran.

1- Are we on the right direction?

Or

2- Are we repeating another Munich Agreement type deal at this historical moment?

Based on my knowledge about the Islamic Regime, its ideological characteristic and goals, i believe the international community is following the second question. I hope, my prediction is wrong in this matter; because i know the negative consequences of a wrong nuclear deal with Iran will be undoubtedly disastrous not only for the Iranian people and the Middle East countries but also for the entire international community in various terms and forms for many years to come. As such, we should be more cautious and careful in terms of an emerging nuclear deal with Iran.



M.  Sirani                             29.03.2015  


 

You Are Dealing With Devil; But You are Not Aware of That.

Based on my knowledge about the Islamic Regime, its history, its structure of power, its short and long term goals, its ideological characteristic i.e. Shiite branch of Islam, its progressive expansionist behavior, the culture of the Iranian people to some extent, and the details of the possible nuclear deal i can tell you that you are dealing with devil; in the final stage, you are the main losers of this deal not the Islamic Regime of Iran. To put it simply, i don't see any light at the end of your nuclear deal tunnel with Iran, neither for those Iranian people, who are totally against the Mullahs Regime, nor for you the western countries, nor for the whole region of the Middle East.


Note: No deal with Iran at this stage does not mean a military confrontation with Iran. This is a totally wrong discourse produced by Obama administration in order to delude and convince the American public. Those, who have a basic knowledge about the Military Affairs know that it is unlikely to be able to destroy all Iran's nuclear facilities and technology for ever by some military strike, due to many reasons, limitations and restrictions. Contrary to what the Obama administration claims, there is a middle way. I have briefly explored this middle way in one of my previous notes. Those, who are interested can read my short note entitled: Deal or no deal, Iran is secretly passing the nuclear red line somewhere in the future. 

Whether you like or not, whether you make a nuclear deal or not, Iran is finally pursuing the nuclear weapon somewhere in the future beyond your will, power and control no matter how. As such, do not lift the sanctions; instead increase the costs for the Islamic Regime in every possible way;  put the pressure on Iran in various legal, diplomatic, economic and political arenas and at the same time implement the Regime Change policy in Iran in a very serious, precise, comprehensive  and constructive manner. This is the only solution. Otherwise, lift the sanctions on Iran; empower Iran in different terms; appease Iran's expansionist behavior in the Middle East and North Africa and at the same time wait for Iran's nuclear bomb test somewhere in the future.

Be reasonable: Which option do you prefer? What a logical mind says in this matter?




M. Sirani                             27.03.2015

For Many Years, Iran has Been Threatening the World for Closing the Strait of Hormuz; Now the Yemeni Houthis Are Threatening to Close the Strait of Bab-el-Mendab (2703.2015).

As Been Revealed: Egyptian Navy Forced Iranian Warships to Retreat From the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb.

If this news is true:
A single incident can cause a fatal and unending war in the whole Middle East. The Unite Nations should immediately be involved in this matter and ease the tension; before it's too late. The whole region has enough potentiality for a long period explosion and chaos.



M. Sirani                  27.03.2015

Today is Jumu'ah; A Time For Friday Prayer. Be Aware of Some Possible Suicide Bombing Attack Carried by Shiite Groups Against Sunni or Vice Versa in Somewhere (27.03.2015).

I'm Accusing the Current U.S. Administration,,,,,,

Here below is a copy of my short note about the series of turmoil and instability in the Middle East and some parts of Africa, due to the weak, wrong and chaotic policies of the current U.S. administration in the region. The current tension in Yemen confirms my statement to some degree. The tension in Yemen is the beginning of an unending conflict, which would spillover to different parts of the region in the near future. To put its simply, in the near future, we will observe more sectarian violence and bloody fragmentation between different Shiite and Sunni groups across the whole Middle East and some parts of Africa.

Note: When it comes to the U.S. foreign policy, the Obama administration has wrongly put all its eggs on the basket of a nuclear deal with Iran. In this respect, the administration has given an unlimited free pass to the Islamic Regime of Iran to do whatever it wants to do. This policy would unequally change the balance of power and consequently would create instability in various parts of the Middle East and North Africa. Due to the fact that every state is pursuing its own national interest and security. Given the weak presentation and incompatibility of the United Nations with regards to current tensions around the globe, and weak foreign policy of the USA in the region, the whole Middle East is entering into the new era of massive turmoil, instability and sectarian violence for many years to come. 
  


M. Sirani                          26.03.2015




I'm Accusing the Current U.S. Administration for Dragging the Whole Middle East into A Series of Turmoil and Instability in the Near Future.


The weak, wrong and chaotic policies of the current U.S. administration with regards to 1- Iran's mysterious and adventurous nuclear activity,  2- how to deal with ISIS in both Iraq and Syria, 3- how to deal with devastating civil war in Syria, 4- how to deal with seizing the power in Yemen by Iran and 5- how to deal with expansionist behavior of Iran in Bahrain, Palestine and Lebanon, would undoubtedly drag the whole Middle East and some parts of Africa into a more chaotic, unstable and conflictual condition.

The wrong policies of the current U.S. administration would, for example, cause nuclear-arm race in the Middle East, deteriorating the peace process between Israel and Palestine, cause the emergence and rise of more Islamic radical groups across Asia, the Middle East and Africa, and more fragmentation within the international community, etc.

This trend would impact the EU in different terms as well. To put it simply, some parts of Asia, the whole Middle East and Africa would undergo a series of turmoil and instability in the next coming years, due to the huge failure and fiasco of the current U.S. administration.

Note: The current administration should for couple of minutes think about the following example.

You as the U.S. government are bombing the ISIS in Syria (which so far, has been beneficial only for Assad's Regime); at the same time, you have decided to organize and train 15,000 Syrian Rebels against Assad's Regime in Turkey; for many years you have said: Bashar Assad must leave the power and now after the death of more than 220,000 innocent people and large numbers of refugees and internally displaced people, you have come up to the idea that you should negotiate some issue directly with Assad's Regime!!!!!!. Can't you see any contradiction in these three different policies and the negative consequences of each on of them within Syria itself, among the Arab countries and your European allies? Don't you have any clear tactic and strategy with regards to the current civil war In Syria after nearly four years?



M. Sirani                       16.03.2015

Exclusive: Haidar al-Ameri the head of the Badr Organization, Asked the US to Halt its Air Strikes On Tikrit.

This is a very important development, which should not be ignored. There might be an important reason behind Haidar al-Ameri's statement at this critical moment.

I think, some important figure such as the head of Iran's Quds Force, General Qasem Soleimani is directly involved in the battle around Tikrit. The policy makers in Tehran and their close affiliates in Iraq including the head of Badr Organization are seriously worried that the U.S. air strikes in Tikrit might deliberately target Soleimani.



M. Sirani                                26.03.2015

The International Community Should Disconnect the Air Bridge Between Sanaa and Tehran as Soon as Possible, Due to the Security, Safety and Many Other Reasons.

Dismantle every possible way that increases the level of tension in Yemen. At this stage, the most important one is the air bridge between Sanaa and Tehran. Due to the security and safety measures along with many other reasons, this line should be immediately closed. Instead, arrange a free line for the UN amid humanitarian assistance to Yemeni people. All the humanitarian help and assistance should be arrived in Yemen under the strict surveillance and control of of the UN; of course, if you want to avoid the further escalation of violence in Yemen.


M. Sirani                            25.03.2015

In Retaliation to Saudi Arabia's Intervention in Yemen, Iran Might Increase its Pressure in Bahrain (26.03.2014).

In addition to Yemen, Iran would try to mobilize every Shiite group across the Middle East. In this respect, Iran might try to destabilize Bahrain as well. By this type of  move and alike, Iran would try to increase the costs for Saudi Arabia in different terms and various occasions. We might probably observe the rising level of sectarian violence in different parts of the Middle East e.g. Pakistan and Afghanistan as well.


Note: The international community should disconnect the air bridge between Sanaa and Tehran as soon as possible due to the security, safety and many other reasons.



M. Sirani                            26.03.2015

Do You Have Any Idea About the Role of Shiite Mythology With Regards to Current Tensions in the Middle East?

I suggest you to read my essay entitled "Will the US attack Iran?".  As a reader, you might agree or disagree with some or most part of this essay. This is not my point. My point in this short note is to illustrate the important role of Shiite mythology with regards to current tensions in the Middle East. In this respect, i suggest you to read the section 4- The Mindset of Policy Makers in Iran. This short section would give you a clue about what is going on the region.

Title: Will the US attack Iran?
Link: http://irancare.blogspot.no/2012/11/will-us-attack-iran_10.html


M. Sirani                      25.03.2015

There is Something Really Wrong.

The joint forces of Assad's Regime, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah have begun a massive offensive operation on the southern province of Daraa, the last stronghold of the moderate Syrian opposition since couple of days ago, while the U.S. led coalition air forces are bombing Tikrit in order to help and support Qasem Suleimani's Shiite forces in this battle.

Note: Are you really sober? Do you know what are you doing? Couldn't you postpone your coordination and cooperation with Quds Force at least at this critical moment that the Iranian regime forces have begun a massive offensive operation against your ally i.e. the moderate Syrian rebels in Daraa?  Couldn't you do that at least for a while in retaliation? 

The types of tactic and strategy, you are using against ISIS, are really shocking me.

The current U.S. administration is ready to lose everything no matter what, in order to have a nuclear deal with Iran. This policy is totally wrong and counterproductive. In addition , the backlash of this wrong policy would enormously damage the Obama administration in the near future.


M. Sirani                              25.03.2015

Yemen is Officially Plunged into A Long Period Devastating Civil War. It's Too Late For R2P (25.03.2015)

The combination of clashes between Shiite, Sunni, Al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates in the one hand and the indirect or direct involvement of Saudi Arabia along with Arab League forces and Iran on the other hand, will create a devastating new battlefield in the Middle East in some years to come.



M. Sirani                      25.03.2015

The Nuclear Deal With Iran is Totally Worthless, if,,,,,

The nuclear deal with Iran, without signing "the Additional Protocol", which allows unexpected and unlimited visit to IAEA inspectors and furthermore, fully compliant of Iran with IAEA standard regulations and approvals in different terms, is just a piece of paper; is totally worthless.



M. Sirani                          25.03.2015

We Can't Totally Stop Iran, But We Can Largely Harness the Hegemonic-Expansionist Behavior of Iran.

When it comes to the nuclear issue, we should not delude ourselves about the final goal and destination of the Islamic Regime in Iran. The Islamic Regime has designed a broad divine plan for imposing its hegemony on the Middle East and Africa from the beginning based on its ideological characteristic. Different evidences indicate the fact that the Regime has been following this plan in a non-stoppable manner and without any interruption in the course of last 36 years. Performing such a broad and huge plan, however, in order to achieve a divine goal in one of the most strategic regions of the contemporary world i.e. the Middle East, without acquiring nuclear weapon is almost impossible.

In addition, we should not forget that the international community with current leverages no matter what, cannot fully stop Iran in this matter. We might be able to put an extra pressure on Iran in various forms by implementing different restrictions; but the idea that we can totally prevent Iran in this matter is a serious delusion. This is an unpleasant fact that we should deal with it in a reasonable and logical manner at the present. To put it simply, Iran is steady, gradually and secretly following the path of North Korea beyond the will, power and control of any super power like the USA or EU or any powerful international institute such as the UN.

In reality, this is a very sad story for the free international community including for us, those Iranians in exile, who have been trying to fundamentally overthrow the Islamic Regime. But this is not the end of story. We might not be able to prevent Iran in acquiring nuclear weapon, but we would be able to slow down and harness Iran's progressive hegemonic behavior to a large extent in different terms by implementing some new policies in the strategic regions of the Middle East and some parts of Africa as well. By performing a series of new policies (which i don't explore them publicly and openly in this weblog), we would be able to hugely increase the cost in various terms and forms for the Islamic Regime. This issue, consequently and undoubtedly, would impact the adventurous behavior of the Iranian Regime on its foreign policy in the region. If we manage to perform these series of policies in a very smart, professional and appropriate manner, we might probably be able to impact the Islamic Regime in domestic arena and mobilize a large numbers of the Iranians people against the regime.

It should be mentioned that this is not an short term plan or an easy task, due to different reasons, which exploring each one of them even though briefly, is out of the scope of this short note. But it is not an impossible mission. I'm pretty sure it is not.


Note: One might cast a doubt on my proposal by saying that the current harsh sanctions couldn't totally stop Iran in this matter. How on earth, your plan might end up into a successful outcome in this matter. In response, i would briefly notify you with some explanations as follows.

1- Contrary to what the West claims, those sanctions imposed on Iran were/ are not complete and comprehensive or hard based on many reasons. As some examples, you can search some names and illegal activities of some people such as Babak Zanjani or Alireza Zarab in Google.

2- Bearing in mind the important role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in different social, cultural, economic and political arenas in Iran and abroad , the western countries did/ do not have a coherent harsh and confrontation policy in different terms against the IRGC and its subset organizations in domestic as well as international arena.

3- When it comes to the Iranian Regime itself also, you the western powers did /do not have a coherent logical and professional policy. In some cases, even in one single country, different governmental institutions do not have a coherent tactic and strategy with regards to Iran. In this respect, the USA is one of the best and at the same time peculiar examples. Look at the various statements about Iran released by the White House, the State Department, Ministry of Defense , CIA and in some cases FBI for example. In most cases, without any doubt, we cannot find a single event (i emphasize a single event) that all these institutions have released the same statement about that event. I know this is a shocking news for most of us, but it is a fact.  

In this respect, i can mention many other loopholes, which the combination of all of them clearly shows why you have not been able to dismantle and control the Islamic Regime in different occasions up until this moment. My plan, on the contrary, would cover all those loopholes in a very fundamental and comprehensive manner.



M. Sirani                                  24.03.2015    

In Addition to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is Conquering the Strategic Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb; While, the International Community is in the Hibernation Mode (23.03.2015).

Be prepared for conquering the rest of the Suez Canal by the Islamic Regime of Iran sooner or later; as i predicted couple of years ago.

Note: Those, who are interested to know the plan of the Islamic Regime in the Middle East, can read my essay entitled: "Iran should not get the nuclear bomb".

The final plan of Iran for the Middle East (Sirani, 2012).





M. Sirani                           23.03.2015

Russia is Using Offshore Balancing Strategy in the Middle East By Overall Supporting Iran in Various Occasions; the USA is Cooperating as well. What the Heck?

Syria and Yemen are the two clear examples in this matter. When it comes to Syria, Russia has been using all Iran's resources including Hezbollah in order to preserve and maintain its interest and influence in the country.

When it comes to Yemen, Russia is using Iran and its proxy the Houtis rebels along with the supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh in order to keep away the USA and other western powers from this strategic part of the world.


Note: How on earth does the USA implement and follow its apologist and appeasement policy toward Iran?  Do the U.S. policy makers not know that they are helping, supporting and preserving the interests of Iran and consequently Russia in the region by their wrong policies? The USA is offering such supports to Russia and Iran in these areas and the same time is in a conflict with Russia about Ukraine!!!??? As it appears, within Obama administration, there are different analysts responsible  for different countries; but the point is that these analysts have absolutely no coordination and cooperation with each other. I should develop a new term for the current U.S. foreign policy: the Confusional Foreign Policy.  


No wonder, when i hear a high ranking employee within Obama administration such as lady J. Psaki publicly and openly says: still we are not sure that Iran is involved in the current tension in Yemen or not. No wonder about the current U.S. chaotic foreign policy.




M. Sirani                   23.03.2015

Ayatollah Khamenei Says: Reaching A Nuclear Deal Without Lifting All the Sanctions at the Same Time is Impossible.

The 5+1 group should translate and pay attention to the recent statement of Ayatollah Khamenei word by word. His statement shows what the final outcome of current nuclear negotiation with Iran would be. Lifting all the sanctions at the time of signing the nuclear deal or nothing, due to the fact that 1- the U.S. needs the nuclear deal much more than Iran, and 2- Nothing including sanctions can stop Iran, 3- Military strike on Iran is just some word and rhetoric, and 4- The whole region is on the rise of Islamization under the influence of Iran, as Khamenei claims in his speech.

Note: can you lift all four types of sanctions imposed on Iran at once? I don't think so. You might be able to lift the sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council, the EU and or those that have been imposed by the U.S. President at once; although i fully aware it is not an easy task. But you cannot lift those sanctions imposed by the U.S. Congress without any verifiable move by Iran at least at this stage. From this issue, we can predict that the Obama administration is going to have some tough days, weeks or i might say months ahead. Contrary to what President Obama said: Bibi shook the DC in a very powerful and reasonable manner. 

Not to mention, this is going to be the best opportunity for Republicans to take any advantage they want from Obama administration in an exchange such as lifting Iran's sanctions (Personally i don't think the Republicans lift Iran's sanctions at least at this stage). This is the final outcome of apologist and appeasement policy of Obama administration toward Iran. This is a very sad story, when i see how the Iranian Regime's lobbyists have dragged the Obama administration into the edge of total collapse.


Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERlAnysO2p0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERlAnysO2p0



M. Sirani                      22.03.2015

Deal or No Deal, Iran is Passing the Nuclear Red line Secretly Somewhere in the Future.

Deal or No Deal, Iran is Passing the Nuclear Red line Secretly Somewhere in the Future.


This is a real scenario with regards to Iran's secret and adventurous nuclear activity and you, the western countries, cannot do anything at all about it not only at this stage but also in the future, based on many reasons. When it comes to Iran's nuclear activity, you have some limited number of options. The first option was and is sanctions. The series of imposed sanctions might slowed down Iran's nuclear activity or as some claim it brought Iran back to the nuclear negotiations. But, as we have observed in the last couple of years, the sanctions couldn't/cannot totally stop Iran in this important matter.

Your second option might/would be a broad military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. In this respect,  you cannot totally dismantle Iran's nuclear facilities by military strike based on its large and broad dimensions, which have been spread across the country and the negative consequences of such a operation. In addition. Iran has learned the nuclear technology, which cannot be destroyed by a military strike. Moreover, you cannot completely destroy an underground nuclear facility like Fordo by a military strike. Furthermore, a broad military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities not only would cause a huge collateral and environmental damages within Iran, it would damage the entire Middle East environmentally as well. As such, i don't think that any politician would dare to take a such a risk.

Based on brief explanation noted above, you (the western countries) are left with only one reasonable, logical and less costly option in comparison with two other options.This option is a fundamental Regime Change in Iran.

Note: By implementing Regime Change Policy, i don't mean the western countries should follow the path of the last 36 years. Because during all those years, you have been trapped within either Good Cup-Bad Cup policy of the Islamic Regime or you have been deluded by the Iranian Regime's lobbyists in different occassions. To put its simply, you have gambled on the wrong horses in the past 36 years. You should completely detach yourself from these two delusional options, if you really want to have a peaceful and stable Middle East in the future. Otherwise, be prepared for swallowing the whole Middle East and Africa by a nuclear-armed Iran beyond your will, control and power.



M. Sirani                                    20.03.2015


    

Warning: Be Prepared For a Long Period Civil War In Yemen.

Three major groups of Shiite, Sunni and Al-Qaeda (its affiliates) would clash with each other and cause a long period civil war in Yemen. In the long term,  some members of Sunni group would undoubtedly join Al-Qaeda and its affiliates; exactly the same as what we have been experiencing in Iraq or Syria. To put it simply, the combination of extreme poverty, high rates of unemployment, weak undemocratic governmental institutions, the long and ongoing conflict between Shiite and Sunni groups caused by long period proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia and many other issues in the chaotic environment of Yemen would facilitate the best opportunity for the rise and emergence of new Islamic radical groups such as ISIS in this country. As such, it would be wise the United Nations would immediately find a peaceful and diplomatic solution for Yemen; before it's too late and the condition of this country has reached the point of no return.

This tragic event would be mostly devastating for Saudi Arabia in different terms. This event, consequently, would fuel the terrorist activities of Al-Shebab in Somalia. As such, we might predict that the Yemeni civil war would threaten the stability and security of some strategic areas such as the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb somewhere in the future.

M. Sirani                      19.03.2015 

Reevaluate Your Analysis About Tunisia; There is An Islamic Volcano beneath the Tunisian Society.

Reevaluate Your Analysis About Tunisia; There is An Islamic Volcano beneath the Tunisian Society.


Those pundits and politicians, who following the latest election in Tunisia predicted that the country is smoothly on the path of democracy and secularism, should reevaluate their prediction in this matter. As i have mentioned in my earlier posts, there is an ongoing Islamic volcano beneath the Tunisian society, which should neither be underestimated nor ignored. Today's terrorist attack shows how critical the situation in Tunisia is and what type of danger is mostly threatening the peace and stability in this country at the present as well as in the future.

Note: Needless to explore the Geo-strategic position of Tunisia and its neighborhood with a chaotic and failed-state such as Libya in this matter.




M. Sirani                          18.03.2015

The Head of Yemeni Ansarollah Organization, the Shiite Group Backed By Iran, is Gunned Down in Sanaa Today (18.03.2015).

Syria Shot Down An American Drone.

Following the reluctant reaction of the U.S.-led coalition with regards to joint offensive operation of Iraqi-Iranian forces in Tikrit, the Syrian air defense system shot down an American Drone in northwestern province of the country along the Mediterranean coast. This incident occurred, while, today Mr. John Kerry announced that the USA is ready to negotiate with Assad's Regime in order to find a solution for the Syrian civil war.


Note: I'm wondering when the current U.S. administration would understand that the appeasement policy towards the Regimes in Iran and Syria is counterproductive. Or when the Obama administration would understand that its current policy against ISIS in both Iraq and Syria is totally wrong, inefficient and only beneficial for both Regimes in Tehran and Damascus. As long as the coalition would change its current wrong policy against ISIS, the Syrian, Iranian and Iraqi forces-affiliates would begin with their military confrontation against the coalition forces in various forms and terms. Exactly like 2003 onward in Iraq, when different Shiite groups backed by the Iranian Regime, IRGC and Quds forces attacked the U.S. forces in the country following the collapse of Saddam's Regime.

Those, who doesn't learn from the history, repeat the same mistake again and again.



M. Sirani                          17.03.2015

Germany, France, Britain and Italy Are Joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

This event would cause a huge shift in the international financial market and put an end to the couple of decades domination of the IMF and the WB in the international arena. the four EU countries of Britain, France, Italy and Germany are trying to save their financial supremacy by joining this bank. As it appears the most loser of this major event is the USA that has not joined this bank up until this moment.

Note: As i have mentioned in my earlier posts, we are in the transformation phase of rise and fall of the empires. Among the super powers, this is the USA that is losing its supremacy in the next couple of decades more than any other powers; of course if the country would not fundamentally change some of its domestic as well as its foreign policy. The emergence of BRICS group and its fast development in different terms is a clear sign of this event.



M. Sirani                          17.03.2015  

I'm Accusing the Current U.S. Administration for Dragging the Whole Middle East into A Series of Turmoil and Instability in the Near Future.

I'm Accusing the Current U.S. Administration for Dragging the Whole Middle East into A Series of Turmoil and Instability in the Near Future.


The weak, wrong and chaotic policies of the current U.S. administration with regards to 1- Iran's mysterious and adventurous nuclear activity,  2- how to deal with ISIS in both Iraq and Syria, 3- how to deal with devastating civil war in Syria, 4- how to deal with seizing the power in Yemen by Iran and 5- how to deal with expansionist behavior of Iran in Bahrain, Palestine and Lebanon, would undoubtedly drag the whole Middle East and some parts of Africa into a more chaotic, unstable and conflictual era.
The wrong policies of the current U.S. administration would, for example, cause nuclear-arm race in the Middle East, deteriorating the peace process between Israel and Palestine, cause the emergence and rise of more Islamic radical groups across Asia, the Middle East and Africa, and more fragmentation within the international community, etc.

This trend would impact the EU in different terms as well. To put it simply, some parts of Asia, the whole Middle East and Africa would undergo a series of turmoil and instability in the next coming years, due to the huge failure and fiasco of the current U.S. administration.

Note: The current administration should for couple of minutes think about the following example.

You as the U.S. government are bombing the ISIS in Syria (which so far, has been beneficial only for Assad's Regime); at the same time, you have decided to organize and train 15,000 Syrian Rebels against Assad's Regime in Turkey; for many years you have said: Bashar Assad must leave the power and now after the death of more than 220,000 innocent people and large numbers of refugees and internally displaced people, you have come up to the idea that you should negotiate some issue directly with Assad's Regime!!!!!!. Can't you see any contradiction in these three different policies and the negative consequences of each on of them within Syria itself, among the Arab countries and your European allies? Don't you have any clear tactic and strategy with regards to the current civil war In Syria after nearly four years?



M. Sirani                       16.03.2015

U.S. Removed Iran and Hezbollah From Its Terrorist List; A New Confusion and Contradictory Move of the Obama Administration.

The Obama administration has put all its foreign policy eggs in the basket of a nuclear deal with Iran. As such, the administration is ready to sacrifice everything including its reputation in order to make this deal happen. Needless to explain the confusion of the Obama administration and enormous contradictions in this matter. Because, President Obama signed and renewed "the State of Emergency Against Iran" just couple of days ago. How did this happen? How could a dangerous state like Iran "According to the State of Emergency Act" become a peaceful state during just couple of days time? What are the signs of this huge transformation and progress? (Maybe recently conquering Yemen. looooooooooool). 


Note: This doesn't mean i agree with every policy developed by these scholars; but i'm wondering does the Obama administration have any contact whatsoever with some experienced scholars like H. Kissinger or Z. Brzezinski or M. Albright or some other contemporary scholars, who are living and lecturing in the USA? Have the Obama administration thought about the consequences and backlashes of this move in the Middle East in terms of radical Sunni groups?

As it appears, the Iranian Regime's lobbyists have substituted all those famous scholars within the Obama administration. In this respect, i should say: Good luck Mr. President; you are going to be the substitute of A. Chamberlain in our historical books in the near future.
This move would undoubtedly cause more chaos, fragmentation and conflict in the Middle East in various terms.


M. Sirani                     16.03.2015

The Most Chaotic Administration in the Entire History of the USA in Terms of Foreign Policy.

By this, i don't mean that i'm completely agree with all foreign policy moves of the previous U.S. administration. But without any doubt, the current administration is the most chaotic in the entire U.S. history, when it comes to an important issue such as foreign policy.The wrong, weak and inefficient policy of the Obama administration with regards to different events in Libya, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, Nigeria, Mali, Yemen, and Iran are just some clear examples in this matter. This particular issue would facilitate the way for the Republican party to seize the power in the 2016 U.S. election; consequently the U.S. government would deal with different events around the world with more aggressive and harsh manner in order to cover the wrong policies of the Obama administration. Because the wrong foreign policies of Obama administration in various terms, the expectation and will of the American voters will compel the next president to run the country in this way.  




M. Sirani                            15.03.2015

Signing A New Contract Between Yemeni Ansarullah and Iran.

The Yemeni Shiite group Ansarullah has signed an agreement amid further development in Al- Hudaydah  port with the Islamic Regime of Iran. Due to the geographical location of Al-Hudaydah close to the Red See, this agreement would undoubtedly facilitate a good opportunity in terms of strategic-military matters for Iran. This development would threaten the security of Saudi Arabia's oil pipe from the Red Sea.


Note: In addition to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Islamic Regime of Iran has swallowed Yemen as well. Be prepared for further expansionist moves of Iran across the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

M. Sirani                    14.03.2015

Drafting A Resolution Within the Security Council Amid Lifting Iran's Sanctions Is A Wrong Move At This Stage.

Such a move would undoubtedly make the job difficult for the U.S. Congressmen, if the Congress would decide to unilaterally ignore the nuclear deal with Iran somewhere in the future. But approving such a resolution at this stage, when the international community cannot properly verify the peaceful nature and intention of Iran's nuclear activity, is a huge risk. Such a move would be totally beneficial only for Iran and nothing else at this critical stage. Thus, it would be wise for the permanent members of the Security Council to postpone this move at least at this stage. Let's first, role the ball in the ground of the Islamic Regime and see how the the Iranian Regime follow the nuclear deal for a while and then draft a powerful resolution like this; not at this unclear stage.

Note: Do not let the letter of 47 American Congressmen negatively push you to other side of the edge in the benefit and advantage of the Islamic Regime; do not let such an internal conflict within the U.S. political system, drag all of you into a regrettable road of a shaky nuclear deal with Iran.



M. Sirani                          13.03.2015

Do Not Intensify the tension In Ukraine; You Are Indirectly Paving the Way for the Membership of Iran in Shanghai Treaty (12.03.2015).

There is a Real Solution for the Syrian Civil War; If You Are Interested.

By performing a plan at regional and international level, we would be able to solve the Syrian civil war, largely defeating ISIS in both Syria and Iraq and achieve some other positive side effects in the Middle East. I don't reveal the plan openly and publicly at this weblog, but i can ensure you it functions much better than all you have done so far. it should be mentioned that performing a huge plan like this at regional level (mostly) is not an easy task, based on many reasons, which are out of the scope of this short note. But it is not impossible.



M. Sirani                             12.03.2015

The Head of Shiite Badr Organization in Iraq Hadi Al-Amiri Says: In the Fight Against ISIS, We Don't Need the Help and Support of the Coalition.

When do you want to understand that your policy against ISIS in both Iraq and Syria is totally wrong?

Note: Some optimist politicians might translate the recent Al-Amiri's statement as a simple propaganda. Such a assumption is totally wrong. Al-Amiri' statement is a warning shot about the future events in Iraq and Syria. When the nuclear deal with Iran will be signed, the Iranian Regime forces and other Shiite affiliates will begin to militarily confront the coalition forces in various forms and terms in both Iraq and Syria; exactly the same as they did in 2003 onward in Iraq following the collapse of Saddam's regime.



M. Sirani                           10.03.2015

The Letter of 47 American Senators to Iran is the Aftershock of Bibi's Speech in Congress.

As i predicted in my earlier post, Netanyahu's speech in the Congress would make the nuclear deal with Iran much more difficult for some particularly for the Obama administration. The recent letter of 47 American Senators to Iran should be understood in this respect. Although, the Obama administration tried to ignore, undermine and underestimate the event in different terms, Bibi's speech shook not only the DC but also the international community in a very powerful manner. This, however, is not the end of the story. We would observe more critical views in this matter whether within the political system in the USA or the EU or among the Arab countries somewhere in the future. Here below is the copy of that short note.


M. Sirani                                10.03.2015

Bibi Shook the DC in a Very Powerful and Reasonable Manner.

I'm neither a warmonger, nor agree with all foreign policy moves of Israel in the region; although i'm among those Iranians, who have been trying to completely overthrow the Islamic Regime in Iran.

But today, Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the U.S. Congress in a very powerful and impressive manner. In his speech, Netanyahu reminded the international community with some logical and reasonable arguments about the imminent and potential threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. His speech would undoubtedly impact the course of nuclear negotiation with Iran in a very difficult manner particularly for the Obama administration. We would  probably observe the aftershocks of Netanyahu's speech within the U.S. political system in the next coming days, weeks or months.


Note: As mentioned earlier in my essay entitled "Iran should not get the nuclear bomb", i totally agree with Netanyahu, where he says: Under severe sanctions, various turmoils in the region, external and internal pressures, the Islamic Regime has so far swallowed four countries of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Imagine, what would the Islamic Regime do, if this clero-totalitarian Regime would obtain nuclear weapon.





M. Sirani                          03.03.2015

Iran is Passing the Red Line of its Nuclear Activity; While The American Law Makers Are Wasting Their Time By Threatening the Obama Administration.

It's too late. Instead of wasting the time for some propaganda, the international community should implement some damage control policies in order to minimize the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran in the future. For your own sake, wake up.

M. Sirani                                   09.03.2015

Happy International Women's Day.

Hope for Equal Rights, Opportunities and in Short, Full Emancipation in Different Terms for All the Women Around the World Particularly for the Iranian Women, who Suffer the Most.

M. Sirani                                      08.03.2015

Boko Haram Proposed Allegiance to ISIS; "United We Stand, Divided We Fall".

Briefly: Do you want to have a simple prediction about the outcomes of this horrific proposal in Africa and the Middle East in the future?

This prediction can be done in several manners. In doing so, imagine the map of Africa and Middle East. 1- Draw a hypothetical line from Nigeria toward Mali, then South of Algeria and then connect it to the current peaceful, strong and stable state of Libya and Sinai Peninsula in Egypt. 2- Or, draw a hypothetical line from Nigeria toward Chad and then to both stable and strong states of Sudan and South Sudan. By such hypothetical moves, you would get some heavenly pictures about various parts of the Africa and the Middle East in the near future.


Note: Be prepared for more allegiance proposals from various Islamic radical groups from Tunisia, Mali, Egypt, Libya, Chad, Yemen, Somalia, etc. This is the wake up call of "United We Stand, Divided We Fall" for all the Islamic Radical groups across the Middle East and Africa. Be prepared for a massive regional hurricane in the near future.

I don't agree with everything that S.Huntington describes in his famous book "The Clash of Civilizations". But this is the time that those politicians and scholars, who made and make fun of Huntington's book, pay little bit more attention to the ongoing broad and horrific developments across the Middle East and Africa. There is much more and deeper events going on in those areas, which should neither be underestimated nor ignored; of course, if we seriously want to have a regional and consequently a sustainable global order.


It should be added that in such chaotic Africa and the Middle East, this is the West that lose, neither China, nor Russia. Simply, because in the mindset of almost all Islamic Radical Groups no matter Shiite or Sunni, around the world, this is the West that colonized and exploited them, not China not Russia.


M. Sirani                                   08.03.2015

Releasing the Two Kidnapped Diplomats of Saudi Arabia and Iran In Yemen; A Type of Proxy Hostage Exchanging (05.03.2015).

Are You Interested to Know More About the Weaknesses of Your Plans Against ISIS?

Read the following short notes, if you tolerate the critics.

1- Obama's Plan against ISIS: A Fundamental Solution or Opening A New Pandora's Box in the Middle East.

Link: http://irancare.blogspot.no/2014/09/obamas-plan-against-isis-fundamental_10.html

2- President Obama Waged the War Against ISIS, in Order to Win the Heart and Mind of Khamenei For a Nuclear Deal.

link: http://irancare.blogspot.no/2014/11/president-obama-waged-war-against-isis.html

3- Don't You See Any Contradiction, Counter-productivity or Backlash in Your Plans Against ISIS in the Near Future? 

Link: http://irancare.blogspot.no/2015/03/dont-you-see-any-contradiction-counter.html

Note: There might be a better plan, much more effective, beneficial with less negative consequences and costs than your current and future plans. Have you ever thought about that?



M. Sirani                                     05.03.2015

Al-Nusra Front Divorced From Al Qaeda As Qatari Authority Declares.

Does this move make any difference in essence? Does such a move change the radical and brutal nature of Al-Nusra front in a fundamental manner? I don't think so. This is a temporarily tactical move for deceiving some Arab and Western countries and nothing else.

Note: Such a move reminds me to the repeatedly marriages and divorces of Elizabeth Taylor and Richard Burton; of course, if this news is true.



M. Sirani                     05.03.2015

Don't You See Any Contradiction, Counter-productivity or Backlash in Your Plans Against ISIS in the Near Future?

Briefly: Since August 2014, the USA and its coalition have started a broad military intervention against ISIS in both Iraq and Syria.
When it comes to Iraq, the coalition is training and arming the Kurdish and Iraqi military and security forces (Both puppets of the Iranian Regime), and at the same time, the coalition air forces are bombing ISIS targets in the country. To put its simply, by this tactic, the coalition is fighting ISIS in Iraq exactly in the favor of both current Iraqi government and the Islamic Regime of Iran.

We leave aside Iraq and check the current tactic of the coalition in Syria.
When it comes to Syria, the coalition air forces are bombing ISIS targets in the country. In most cases, if ISIS has retreated in some areas (if any), due to the coalition air strikes, the Syrian military and security forces have seized the power and control on that areas, mainly due to fundamental weaknesses of the Syrian rebels and deep fragmentation within the Syrian rebel groups.

In short, the current tactic of the coalition against ISIS in Syria is also exactly in the favor of Assad's Regime and its big brother the Islamic Regime of Iran. One thing is Chrystal clear up until this point and there is some type of co-existence and informal (or secretly formal) coordination and cooperation between the coalition forces on the one side and the military forces of Iran, Syria and Iraq on the other side. Due to this heavenly-magic co-existence, we have not observed any direct clash or military confrontation between various contradictory actors involved in the battle against ISIS so far.

As briefly explored above, there is a type of sweet honeymoon between various actors in Iraq and Syria or we might say: everything is going well, softly and smoothly in these two countries. Moreover, we should not be genius or have PhD in political science, or International Relations or Military-Strategic studies to understand that the so far implemented tactics of the coalition in both Iraq and Syria is and will be in the favor of political systems in Russia, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Although in reality i totally disagree with this type of move in both Iraq and Syria, i can swallow the event in a very irrational and illogical manner. In this respect, i can delude myself and my intelligence by saying that the Obama administration has decided to give extra advantage to the Iranian Regime, or the administration has decided to appease or show its pure friendship to the Iranian Regime by these types of tactics in a hope to get a nuclear deal with the Mullahs in Tehran. Who knows, maybe some in the current U.S. administration think that a nuclear deal with Tehran can erase the six years chaotic foreign policy of the USA from the entire history of man kind.

This is not unfortunately the end of the story.The peculiarity of story begins, when we hear that the USA has recently signed a deal with Turkey to professionally and systematically organize, train and arm 15,000 Syrian Rebels against Assad's Regime in the geographical territory of  Turkey. In this respect, we face two major different plans, which each one of them has its own special and to some extent opposing characteristics with another one. Implementing these two opposing plans simultaneously and parallel with each other can cause and develop a huge  contradiction, counter-productivity and backlash in various forms and terms; maybe not at the present and at this stage, but it will definitely in the future do.

Let's briefly explore these two incompatible plans one by one.

The first plan is the current tactic of the coalition against ISIS in both Iraq and Syria. As briefly described above, we came to the conclusion that this plan is totally beneficial for the political systems in Russia, Iran, Syria and Iraq. As such, neither Iran, nor Iraq, nor Syria, nor Russia do not have any objection in this matter so far. Simply, because these political systems are enjoying "the Buck Passing Strategy" and using the coalition's resources in their own favors in both Iraq and Syria.

The newly second plan is organizing, training and arming 15,000 Syrian rebels in Turkey. I don't think the coalition would try to create an army of 15,000 majors or generals from these rebels. In other words, sooner or later maybe after three months (more or less) extensive military course, these 15,000 well-trained rebels will be deployed into Syria and will begin to fight against ISIS and more importantly against Assad's Regime. I leave aside the important notion that after the training, some of these 15,000 rebels might join other Islamic Radical groups such as Al.Qaeda or Al-Nusra Front or alike either in Syria or Iraq or other chaotic areas around the world. Instead, i briefly focus on the military confrontation of these well-trained Syrian rebels with the Syrian military forces and its negative consequences in some areas probably beyond the geographical territories of Iraq and Syria.

In such an event or one might say hypothetical event, what would be the reaction of Russia, Iran, Syria and Iraq, when these political systems observe that Assad's Regime is on the verge of collapse? How would Russia react? Wouldn't Russia, in retaliation, try to destabilize more Ukraine or some of the Balkan states, or playing with its golden energy card with the EU, or ignoring the nuclear negotiation within 5+1 in the favor of Tehran, or arming the Iranian  Regime with high-tech offensive-defensive military equipment?

So would be the case of Iran. In such an event, would the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Quds force, Badr Organization, Mahdi Militia, Hezbollah and other Shiite groups backed by Iran let the coalition forces implement their own plans in Syria and Iraq without any problem, without any military confrontation? How would the USA and the coalition react in such an event? On the one hand, the USA and coalition forces are smashing ISIS in the favor of Iran and Syria, and on the other hand, they are fighting against the Syrian Regime and consequently Iran and its affiliates in the region? Wouldn't this plan speed up the nuclear activity of the Iranian Regime?

So is the case of Syria. So far, the Syrian military forces have not shot a single bullet toward the coalition military jets. What would be the reaction of Damascus, when Bashar Assad observe that his political system is on the verge of collapse, due to massive pressure of 15,000 well-trained Syrian Rebels? Would Assad's forces let the coalition military jets fly over the Syrian airspace without any military confrontation? Would Hezbollah fighters remain passive and do nothing neither in Syria, nor in Iraq, nor in Lebanon or else where and watch the military confrontation between the coalition and the Syrian forces in the sky? In such an event, wouldn't Russia arm the Assad's Regime with more high-tech offensive-defensive military equipment? And many other questions, which are beyond the scope of this short note.

In sum: As briefly explained above, the second plan of the coalition amid organizing, training and arming 15,000 Syrian rebels will undoubtedly end up into a direct military confrontation between the coalition in the one hand and the Iranian and Syrian Regimes in the other hand somewhere in the future. Depends on the scope of conflict, geopolitical and strategic importance of both Iraq and Syria for Iran and Russia, there is very low probability that this military confrontation will be limited just in the geographical territories of Iraq and Syria.

Based on all explained above, we face some serious questions as follows.
1- Do the USA and the coalition have any idea about the consequences, counter-productivity and backlash of their plans?

2- Don't the USA and coalition observe a huge incompatibility between their current and future plans? Don't they see that these two incompatible plans overlap and crash with each other somewhere in the future?

3- Are the USA and the coalition ready to pay such a high price (as briefly explored above) by implementing such a plan?

4- If the USA and coalition have decided to enter a direct military confrontation with Iran and Syria somewhere in the future, why are they helping and supporting these three political systems in Iran, Iraq and Syria now by performing their current plan against ISIS?

5- Couldn't the USA and the coalition really develop a better plan without less negative consequences and more positive achievements in this matter?

And many other questions.


In sum, as i review the both plans, i can conclude that:
After more than a year, still the USA and the coalition have absolutely no proper, coherent, reliable and effective tactic and strategy with regards to ISIS and chaotic civil wars in both Iraq and Syria.

This issue is really shocking me. It makes me speechless. In short, as far as i know, we have Seven Wonders around the world. I think the type of tactic and strategy that have been used against ISIS so far (currently and future plan) should be named "The Eighth Wonder" in our historical book.



Note: I don't want to exaggerate or challenge anyone in the coalition's administrations. But, there might be a better plan with less cost and less negative consequences; much more better than the current and future plans in this particular case. In the final part of this short note, i should remind the reader with some important point.   

The international politics in conflictual area is like different pieces of a disordered puzzle, which one or some pieces of this puzzle has/have been removed from its previous place or is going to be removed from its current place by the force of one or sometimes some actors in opposing directions. In order to solve such a conflict, we should look at that conflictual piece from a broad perspective; we should consider other pieces of puzzles and other actors that to some extent are related to that particular conflictual piece of puzzle; we should consider that the international politics sometimes is a combination of giving and receiving, we should consider timing; we should consider the strength and weak points of other actors and ourselves as well in that particular time; etc. If we use this method in a more comprehensive manner and consider more aspects and dimensions of a single conflict, we might not only be able to solve that conflict but also we might be able to ease the tension in some other areas. Simply because, in our contemporary world, the series of conflicts are to some extent related and interconnected with each other; although they might be far away from each other in geographical term. If the coalition forces look at the ISIS problem from this point of view and consideration, they might probably come up with a better plan, much more better than the current and future plans. I'm pretty sure in this matter. As i look at your plan against ISIS, i see that the coalition are wasting their resources in the favor of the enemies; they are losing the precious time; they are losing a tangible opportunity, which at this particular time is in front of their eyes. 




M. Sirani                                    04.03.2015

          

President Obama Says: Netanyahu Didn't Say Anything New; Didn't Offer An Alternative.

I put completely aside today's Netanyahu speech before the Congress.

But, when it comes to an alternative with regards to Iran's nuclear activity, i say:

Mr President
There was, still is and might will be an alternative for Iran's nuclear activity and its expansionist behavior; But your administration did not, do not and will not pay attention to it.

You might wonder why? This is the story. Iranian Regime's lobbies have become Iran Analyst in your administration; Iranian regime's lobbies have penetrated in every important social, cultural,  educational, media ( For example VOA the voice of America, CNN and BBC), economic and political institutions in your country, the USA and other Western countries; you are directly appeasing the Iranian Regime by choosing a wrong policy in the war against ISIS and many other examples.

By such a dark background, you are labeling those, who criticize the chaotic foreign policy of your administration, either warmongers or those, who have no alternative.



M. Sirani                                           03.03.2015

Bibi Shook the DC in a Very Powerful and Reasonable Manner.

Bibi Shook the DC in a Very Powerful and Reasonable Manner.


I'm neither a warmonger, nor agree with all foreign policy moves of Israel in the region; although i'm among those Iranians, who have been trying to completely overthrow the Islamic Regime in Iran.

But today, Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the U.S. Congress in a very powerful and impressive manner. In his speech, Netanyahu reminded the international community with some logical and reasonable arguments about the imminent and potential threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. His speech would undoubtedly impact the course of nuclear negotiation with Iran in a very difficult manner particularly for the Obama administration. We would  probably observe the aftershocks of Netanyahu's speech within the U.S. political system in the next coming days, weeks or months.


Note: As mentioned earlier in my essay entitled "Iran should not get the nuclear bomb", i totally agree with Netanyahu, where he says: Under severe sanctions, various turmoils in the region, external and internal pressures, the Islamic Regime has so far swallowed four countries of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Imagine, what would the Islamic Regime do, if this clero-totalitarian Regime would obtain nuclear weapon.





M. Sirani                          03.03.2015

Exclusive: Iran Strongly Rejects Obama's Proposal that Iran Should Halt its Sensitive Nuclear Activity for Ten Years.

Once again i repeat:
Your wrong apologist and appeasement policy toward Iran, will finally drag you into a direct military confrontation with Iran, whether during the Obama administration or the next republican president administration.

Note: Some will be roasted in the Washington DC.



M. Sirani                             03.03.2015

Netanyahu's Speech Before Congress Would Highly Likely Knock Down The Obama administration; A Hurricane in the Congress.

I'm not 100% sure but it seems Prime Minister Netanyahu has decided to reveal some untold story amid the nuclear negotiation with Iran in his today's speech before the Congress. This would be the last silver bullet of Prime Minister Netanyahu. In case of such an event, the Obama administration would be knocked down in terms of the U.S. foreign policy including Iran's nuclear negotiation in the next two coming years. This event would undoubtedly damage the reputation and popularity of Democrats within the U.S. domestic arena. The simple consequence of such an event would also be a more chaotic international politics as well.

Worthy to watch the whole event second by second.



M. Sirani                    03.03.2015

It's the Time that We Replace the Name of Chamberlain and Munich Agreement With New Names and New Event. In Social Science, We Need A New and Updated Example.

It's the time that we say good bye to an old fashion theme such as Chamberlain and his shameful Munich Agreement and use a new and updated example. lol


Note: It's so funny and accidental (loooool) in that time Hitler was Swallowing Czechoslovakia, while Chamberlain was drowning in his dream amid a precious peace deal with Hitler. Today, the Islamic Regime is swallowing Yemen and other states one by one in the Middle East, while the Western policy makers are drowning in their dreams amid a reliable and verifiable precious nuclear deal with Tehran.
Those, who don't learn from history, repeat the same mistake.


M. Sirani                               03.03.2015

In A Sudden Move, Iran Increased Its Military Budget By An extra $1 Billion Dollar (Doesn't This move Resemble Something Like Munich Agreement For You?).

When it comes to the nuclear negotiation, Iran's proposal is clear as follows: Munich Agreement or Nothing; My Way or High Way.


Note: Based on some issues such as: the ideological characteristic of political system, inherent expansionist behavior, planning to create "A Shiite Empire" not only at regional level but also at global level, defeating the two major enemies in the Middle East i.e. 1- Israel, 2- Saudi Arabia, progressive and strong influence in the Middle East and some parts of Africa, the policy makers in Tehran should be so stupid and retarded, if they don't develop nuclear weapon somewhere in the future. Achieving these goals mentioned above, is an impossible mission without a nuclear weapon.


Some simple questions: 1- Don't some events such as enforcing resistance economy, nearly 50% increasing in military budget, gradual and steady conquering the states one by one in the Middle East, adventurous and secret nuclear activity show you that the Islamic Regime is preparing itself for something? Don't these issues to some extent resemble the Munich Agreement for you? Don't you smell something fishy in the combination of all these events? (If not, you probably need to arrange an appointment with a good political ENT specialist).





M. Sirani                                          03.03.2015                            

The Absolute Necessity of A New Plan for the Middle East and Africa (Mostly North Africa).

Your so-called "The Green Belt Plan" resulted in the disastrous emergence of the Islamic Regime in Iran and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Your second attempt, the so-called The Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative resulted in a series of chaotic events (Known as Arab Spring) including the rise and emergence of various radical Islamic groups across the Middle East and most part of African continent. As a result of your flaw ideas and plans, we have been observing and experiencing various types of chaos, instability, civil war, terrorist activity and conflict in most part of the Middle East and Africa. The scope of these negative side effects and consequences has been spreading beyond the geographical territory of the Middle East and Africa into your own countries. In this respect, some terrorist attacks, which have been taken place in The USA, UK, France and Germany could be mentioned.

Based on some past events and what we are currently observing in the Middle East and Africa, we can easily anticipate that the situation in these areas will getting worse and chaotic in the future.To put it short, there is absolutely no light at the end of the tunnel of future events in both the Middle East and Africa.

Some issues such as, the demographic characteristics, high rates unemployment, severe poverty, geopolitical - strategical concerns, extremely weak democratic and political institutions, and abundance of natural resources particularly in energy sector, indicate the fact that there is a huge and broad volcano activity beneath the Middle East and Africa; a huge volcano that might erupt at any moment in a very disastrous manner. In order to avoid such a chaotic and disastrous scenario in the future, we should develop a new comprehensive and decisive plan for these areas now; before the situation is getting completely out of the control.



M. Sirani                           02.03.2015


 

By Newly Development in Yemen, Saudi Arabia's Two Major Ways of Exporting Oil Are Under the Control of the Iranian Regime.

A simple maritime accident whether in the Suez Canal, or the Gulf of Aden or in the Strait of Hormuz will undoubtedly increase the price of oil in the international market.

Note: To put it simply, Saudi Arabia would no longer be able to keep the price of oil low somewhere in the near future.



M. Sirani                                 01.03.2015

Starting Direct Flight Route From Tehran To Sana (Yemen) From Today. (The Backyard of Saudi Arabia is Occupied By Iran).

Congratulations to genius politicians, policy-makers and pundits.

In addition to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, the Islamic Regime of Iran is officially swallowing Yemen.
Be prepared for further expansion across the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.


Note: The first Iranian plane full of So-Called "Humanitarian Cargo"(Read it: Weapon and military equipment) would land in Sana today. This event indicates the fact that Iran is officially occupied the backyard of Saudi Arabia. By such a smart move, the Iranian Regime has fully control about Saudi Arabia and its two major ways of exporting oil (1- from the Strait of Hormuz, 2- Through some oil pipe from Red Sea) in the region.

A map for refreshing the mind of some policy-makers and pundits.

For further detail about the map and Iran's expansionist behavior, you can read the essay entitled: "Iran should not get the nuclear bomb" in the weblog.





M. Sirani                     01.03.2015