There are a few lengthy academic essays in this blog. Among them A- The Structure of Power in the Islamic Republic of Iran (Published on TERRORISM RESEARCH & ANALYSIS CONSORTIUM WEBSITE (TRAC), B- Iran Should not Get the Nuclear Bomb (Criticizes K. Waltz's Defensive Realism and Touches FP of Iran in the ME) & C- IRGC could be mentioned (NMBU-2008-2013).The rest are short impromptu analyses and predictive forecasts without any editing. All Rights Reserved.
Friday, March 20, 2015
Deal or No Deal, Iran is Passing the Nuclear Red line Secretly Somewhere in the Future.
Deal or No Deal, Iran is Passing the Nuclear Red line Secretly Somewhere in the Future.
This is a real scenario with regards to Iran's secret and adventurous nuclear activity and you, the western countries, cannot do anything at all about it not only at this stage but also in the future, based on many reasons. When it comes to Iran's nuclear activity, you have some limited number of options. The first option was and is sanctions. The series of imposed sanctions might slowed down Iran's nuclear activity or as some claim it brought Iran back to the nuclear negotiations. But, as we have observed in the last couple of years, the sanctions couldn't/cannot totally stop Iran in this important matter.
Your second option might/would be a broad military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. In this respect, you cannot totally dismantle Iran's nuclear facilities by military strike based on its large and broad dimensions, which have been spread across the country and the negative consequences of such a operation. In addition. Iran has learned the nuclear technology, which cannot be destroyed by a military strike. Moreover, you cannot completely destroy an underground nuclear facility like Fordo by a military strike. Furthermore, a broad military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities not only would cause a huge collateral and environmental damages within Iran, it would damage the entire Middle East environmentally as well. As such, i don't think that any politician would dare to take a such a risk.
Based on brief explanation noted above, you (the western countries) are left with only one reasonable, logical and less costly option in comparison with two other options.This option is a fundamental Regime Change in Iran.
Note: By implementing Regime Change Policy, i don't mean the western countries should follow the path of the last 36 years. Because during all those years, you have been trapped within either Good Cup-Bad Cup policy of the Islamic Regime or you have been deluded by the Iranian Regime's lobbyists in different occassions. To put its simply, you have gambled on the wrong horses in the past 36 years. You should completely detach yourself from these two delusional options, if you really want to have a peaceful and stable Middle East in the future. Otherwise, be prepared for swallowing the whole Middle East and Africa by a nuclear-armed Iran beyond your will, control and power.
M. Sirani 20.03.2015
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