The EU Should Not Put All Its Eggs in the USA's Basket With Regard to the Current Tension in Ukraine.

This is a huge mistake, if the EU would follow the path of the USA with regard to the current tension in Ukraine. In this respect, the cost of detaching Ukraine from Russia would be very high mainly for the EU, not for the USA. If Ukraine would be detached from Russia in this way that we are currently observing, there is high probability that Russia would stop or would not renew the New START Treaty with the USA somewhere in the future. Moreover, we should not forget that the EU imports more than 30% of its energy from Russia. From this, we can deduce that the EU would maximize its vulnerability in two terms of energy and security, if Ukraine would be detached from Russia in this way. The USA, in contrast, does not lose anything at all, due to the fact that the USA does not need Russian energy and in addition, the country has enough nuclear weapons to defend itself against any nuclear powers including Russia as well.

Therefore, the EU should look at Russia as a competitive neighbour, not an enemy. As such, the EU should focus on a mutual understanding, respect and co-existence in its relation with Russia. Should this happen, the EU would be able to ease the tension in Ukraine. Such a event would be beneficial for the EU in the long term, particularly, when it comes to two important issues such as energy and security. To put it simply, the EU should not put all its eggs in the USA's basket with regard to the current tension in Ukraine.

In this respect, i (as an individual), observe three different reactions within the EU. There is a country like Germany, which is confident about the future of the EU in different terms. Therefore, it tries to find a diplomatic solution in a moderate way for this tension. There is a country like the UK, who would play in the middle and would try to have the EU and at the same time the USA with regard to this tension. There are some countries like France and Poland (each based on different reasons), who are not sure about the future of the EU in different terms and would try to keep the big brother (the USA) close. Therefore, both have harsh reactions against Russia. In sum, i believe, this is the time that the EU should trust itself and make its own decision. 


M. Sirani                             04.03.2014

Note: 1- This short note does not mean that I'm defending Russia and its current presence in the Crimean Peninsula.  Through this note, i just try to illustrate some consequences, which might occur in the future.

2- Today, Russia has successfully tested a long-range ballistic missile. This is something that i had anticipated in previous short notes and the long essay titled: What is currently happening in Ukraine? (Persian version).