The USA and some of the European countries are directly or indirectly push Russia toward more aggression. This is a fact that Russia has violated the international law at Crimean Peninsula. But if we put all these events in a simple premise of "Cause and Effect", we will see that this is the USA and some EU countries that compel President Putin to act in this way. We should not forget that during the last 23 years, the West has expanded its territory in different terms close to Russian borders. The NATO has expended itself close to the wall of Kremlin. In addition, during the last couple of months, the USA and EU have supported a group of so-called "oppositions", which most of them do not have any good reputation. The allegedly hacked phone conversation between Lady Ashton and Estonian Foreign Minister clearly indicates this issue. With all these evidences, the USA and EU accuse President Putin with power politics, or Putin lives in the Cold War era, Or Putin would try to create a new Soviet Union, etc. In fact, what we are observing currently in the Crimean Peninsula is the side effect of all these years expansionist behavior of the USA and EU close to the borders of Russia. We are not blind; we are not uneducated. This is a Christal clear fact.
I'm not a supporter of President Putin and Russia. If anyone reads my previous articles, perfectly understand this notion. I have directly and in some cases harshly criticized President Putin in many short notes and essays particularly for his close ties with the Islamic Regime of Iran and the current Syrian regime. But when it comes to the current tension in Ukraine, i don't blame Russia and President Putin.
The point is briefly as follows.
The USA is losing the power in different parts of the World. In the Middle East, Iran is expanding its influence in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, Yemen and to some extent Palestine. These areas are almost out of the control of the USA. This issue is not pleasant for the allies of the USA in the region. As such, Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the region including Israel, the USA's closest ally do not trust the USA anymore the same as they did before.
African continent is also almost out of the control of the USA as well. There are two important events in Africa that the combination of both has gradually decreased the influence of the USA in this part of the world. 1- The emergence of different radical Islamist groups in different parts of Africa. 2- China's growing influence in African continent, which has started in 2003 and rapidly is continuing.
South American countries are also almost out of the control of the USA in comparison with 1960's 1970's.
In South East Asia, this is the China that is going to be identified as a super power in different terms,not just economically but also militarily.
In addition to all mentioned above, the USA has faced with the emergence of the BRICS group. The BRICS group will gradually prevail the supremacy of the USA in different terms. The combination of all these issues, compel the USA to be allied with the EU, the only left and trustworthy allies in the world. If the USA would be able to build a close ties with the EU the same as during the Cold War Era (i emphasize the same as the Cold War Era) America would be able to compete with the BRICS group in the future. Otherwise, the USA will gradually melting in the international arena and losing its supremacy to a large degree.
What is the plan of the USA with regard to to the current tension in Ukraine?
I think the USA would try to build a new Berlin Wall this time between the EU and Russia with regard to Ukraine. What would happen, If the USA would be able to push the EU and consequently, the EU gives membership to Ukraine? Should this happen, the reaction of Russia would be more aggressive. In this respect, for example, Russia might unilaterally withdraw from the NEW START Treaty. In this case, what would the EU do? What can the EU do? In this case, the EU should maintain and preserve its security by taking help from the USA, exactly the same as the Cold War Era. Should this happen, the USA has managed to build a strong block against the BRICS group and has managed to preserve its supremacy to some extent. As a result, the USA would be able to impose its hegemony on the EU countries like the Cold War Era. However, such an event would not be beneficial for the EU in different terms. Because, Russia has enormous economic ties with the EU. In addition, the EU is dependent on Russia because of its necessary energy. To put its simply, the USA would try to preserve its hegemony in the world at the expense of the European countries in the current tension in Ukraine.
In sum, the USA and EU should not push Russia toward more aggression with such harsh reactions. Imposing any economic sanctions on Russia would be devastating on both sides and consequently for the rest of the world to some degree. Harsh reactions against Russia would cause enormous useless conflicts in different processes of decision making at global level. As an example, if the USA and EU would impose sanctions on Russia, the West would not be able to find a diplomatic solution for Syria. So would be the case of Iran's nuclear activity. The policy makers in the USA and EU should understand the negative consequences of their reactions with regard to current tension in Ukraine. Thus, it would be wise to do not push Russia toward zero-sum game and more aggression. Because in this case, all loses.
Once again, i emphasize an important point. If we would enter a New Cold War Era with Russia; this time, the consequences would be devastating much worse than the previous one. Some might wonder why? Because, Russia has experienced lots of unpleasant events following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Following the collapse of the Eastern Block, the USA and EU had given Russia lost of promises, which they didn't keep them.
In the final part, I suggest the policy makers in the USA and EU read the recent article of Henry Kissinger with regard to this tension.
M. Sirani 07.03.2014
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