Sunday, March 16, 2014

President Putin is Not a Pushover Person Anymore; Don't You Get it?

Any sanctions, any hostility, any rhetoric of threat against Russia not only do not solve the current dispute in Ukraine, instead it will create extra trouble in this matter. The recent development in Ukraine, today's referendum in the Crimean peninsula and pro-Russia demonstrations in some cities such as Donetsk, Odessa, and Kharkov are clearly showing that Russia and president Putin are serious about the Ukraine and its future. The combination of all these events illustrates that president Putin is not a pushover person and Russia does not tolerate anymore the expansion of the EU and NATO close to its borders.

A simple review about the recent developments in Ukraine illustrate the fact that anytime the West has tried to put a pressure on Russia in any direction, president Putin has responded with more aggression and hostility. Thus, it would be wise for the USA and EU to follow the damage control policy at this stage. By implementing this policy, the USA and EU would calm the tension not only within Ukraine between different ethnic groups but also between themselves and Russian authority. Should this happen, Russia might not take further aggressive reaction with regards to the Crimean peninsula and other places in Ukraine. In such an environment, the UN, USA, EU and Russia might be able to find a diplomatic solution for this conflict. Otherwise, Russia would quickly annex the Crimean peninsula and furthermore would continue to swallow the other parts of Ukraine.

Imposing some economic and political sanctions on Russia would also damage the EU and consequently the international community particularly at the present time, while the whole world is experiencing a global economic downturn. All the EU countries should think about their economic trades with Russia in different terms including their needs to Russian oil and gas. Some EU countries such as England and Switzerland, which are the capitals of finance in the international arena, should think about the consequences of economic sanctions and asset freezing on their banks and financial markets. These countries should consider this event that in 2015 Chines Yuan will enter in the market as a international currency. Such a harsh reaction will damage these states in the future. Some other countries such as Norway, for example, should think about the consequences of these sanctions on Russia in terms of its security and the future of the New START Treaty. The EU should think about the consequences of the sanctions on PCA deal (Partnership and Cooperation Agreement) with the Central Asian countries. And many more short & long term negative consequences. 

Moreover, Such harsh reactions against Russia, in addition, will offer Iran and Syria massive advantages, each in different terms. This is something that the USA and EU should consider, while they are discussing how to response Russia.

To be sure, I'm not defending the reaction of Russia in the Crimean peninsula. My point is that the USA and EU should and can solve the current dispute in Ukraine in a better way.

Note: Someone should give a wake up call to the UN. It seems the so-called "Our legitimate International Institution" is in a hibernation mode. Honestly, the current UN reminds me to the League of Nations. We should ask ourselves what the UN has done or are doing with regards to the civil war in Syria or the current tension in Ukraine or devastating tensions in most of the African countries? Once again, i repeat my previous words: The current United Nations and its important entities i.e. The Security Council, need a fundamental reconstruction and reform in different terms. 

M. Sirani                     16.03.2014