The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to bail-out Ukraine with an $18bn dollars loan. This loan might save Ukraine from a sovereign default at the present time. But the final result might not be what we are expecting based on many reasons as briefly follows:
1- At the present, Ukraine is experiencing a broad internal and external tension.
2- The country is on the unknown phase of a huge transformation with regard to joining the EU and how far the country would join the European Union.
3- The whole political system in Ukraine is weak, unstable, chaotic and corrupt.
4- The powerful presence of ultra nationalist and chauvinist groups within current interim government is a serious threat for both the Ukrainian people and the EU.
5- Such a ultra nationalist and chauvinist interim government would not respect the equal rights and opportunity for other ethnic groups, for example Russians, inside Ukraine. Such a behavior would finally cause a broad internal conflict between different ethnic groups inside Ukraine or might possibly drag the country toward a civil war. Such an event would facilitate an opportunity for Russia or i might say would force Russia to intervene in Ukraine domestic affairs in order to save the Russian citizens, who live in this country.
6- There are serious internal conflicts and power struggles between the current members of the interim government themselves and different elite groups that want to occupy the power in Ukraine. Whom can the West trust? Tymoshenko, Klitschko or someone from current ultra nationalist and chauvinist interim government? Which one and who has a good reputation among the majority of Ukrainian people?
7- The IMF would enter in a country like Ukraine with such negative characteristics and would try to impose its so-called "well- genius austerity measures".
Based on brief explanation noted above, should we be a genius person like Einstein to predict what would happen in Ukraine in the near future? Does this loan at the present time would help Ukraine with such negative characteristics to stand up on its own feet somewhere in the future?
As i follow the news about Ukraine and consider this dispute from different angles, it seems to me that the West (the USA, EU and IMF) would like to indirectly create more instability in Ukraine and moreover, invite Russia to a deeper conflictual game. In this respect, i might say whether the West like it or not, Russia would be involved in Ukraine based on two main reasons as follows. Firstly, all issues mentioned above indicate the fact that Ukraine would face a deeper turmoil and internal conflict in the upcoming weeks and months. Secondly, nearly ten millions Russians live in Ukraine and Russia cannot simply ignore them in an unstable and chaotic Ukraine.
In sum, the IMF and its western shareholders do not lose anything at all with this loan. They will take back every penny of this loan including its interests no matter when, how and who governs Ukraine. But these are the working and middle class Ukrainian people, who pay an expensive price for their inappropriate move at this historical critical moment.
M. Sirani 29.03.2014
No comments:
Post a Comment