Nationwide Ceasefire in Syria Proposed by Putin Means Embarrassing Historical Event For Obama Admin and Some Other Countries, Which Wasted Billions of Dollars in Syria Through Their Kindergarten Foreign Policy.

The Chance that Russian Plane Has Crashed in the Black Sea Due to Some Accident, Is Very Low. Terrorism Is A Possibility.

Briefly:

One might have planted an explosive device in the Plane at Sochi Airport.

Note: The existence of An anti-aircraft missile in this case means a total disaster (I hope my prediction in this regard would not come true).




M. Sirani            25.12.2016

Assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Turkey Does Not Mean the Beginning of the Third World War. On the Contrary, it Means The End of the Syrian Civil War Sooner Than You Thought.

Briefly:

Contrary to the claim of some historical-political Copier & Paster, who call themselves "Think Tank" or pundit, this tragic event would not start the Third World War. The assassination of the Russian ambassador along with some previous diplomatic disputes between Turkey and the EU - USA (e.g. EU membership, free-visa for Turkish citizens, F. Gulen, etc) have opened the new door of opportunities for Turkey with regards to Russia, Iran and at the end of the road for China as well.
Based on this brief, we can expect many changes with regards to many events in the Middle East, Central Asian countries and Syria as well. The first and important impact of this newly developed rapprochement is that Bashar Assad would remain in the power.


Note: Assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Turkey Does Not Mean the Beginning of the Third World War. On the Contrary, it Means The End of the Syrian Civil War Sooner Than some people Thought. R. Erdogan would highly likely trade Syria with other opportunities offered by Iran, Russia & China.
 And the winners are: Iran, Russia, Assad's Regime & China.
The losers are,,,,,,,,,,,, you guess this part. 

What will highly likely happen in the next coming months & years? With high probability In short:

A- Turkey would trade Syria in return to some beneficial deals in different terms with Russia, Iran & China

B- Turkey, Russia and Iran would agree to put an end to the Syrian civil war.

C- Turkey, Russia, Iran and Assad's regime would beat the hell out of ISIS in Syria & consequently in Iraq.

D- Pro-Turkey rebels would get amnesty to remain and live in Syria or move to Turkey.

E- China, Russia and Iran would expand their relations with Turkey as much as they can. In this respect, offering the Shanghai Treaty membership to Turkey could be mentioned. This means a historical crashing point for NATO. 

F- What would happen to 3 million refugees sheltered in Turkey? If the USA & EU would not cover the costs, Turkey would open its borders toward the EU. This means influx of millions of refugees toward the EU countries. 

G- The combination of these events indicate a fact and that is that the entire Middle East and Central Asian countries would experience some type of change/s in different terms.  

And many unpleasant events for the USA and the EU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.

*****All the predictions noted above (And many more other unpleasant events) would come true in the next coming months & years with HIGH PROBABILITY, if the USA & the EU would not fundamentally change their policies with regards to many events in the Middle East and Turkey.  


M. Sirani                 20.12.2016 

Angela Merkel Does Not Have Any Chance At All To Be Re-Elected Again In the Next Year Election in Germany; Unless A Miracle Happens.

Totally wrong domestic as well as foreign policy would lead to a serious disaster.


Note: Some people still don't get it. But the EU is pregnant with many events in the next coming months & years. I don't see any good picture in different terms in this regard; not at all. I have repeatedly warned about this issue in my earlier posts. I repeat it again: The EU is in a serious S**** dangerous situation.


In my essay entitled "An Assessment About the Current Civil War in Syria"(2013) in the section "Some Consequences of the Syrian Civil War", i warned about various terrorist activities, which would happen in the Western countries & the EU (All politicians & pundits ignored my warning). What we are observing currently in Germany, France , etc is just the tip of the iceberg. The catastrophic terrorist activities would begin, when the Syrian civil war is over and those so-called "rebels" have returned to their own countries.   




M. Sirani                  19.12.2016    

Assassination of Russian Ambassador in Turkey Not Only Deteriorates the Overall Chaotic Situation of the Middle East & Probably Ukraine, But Also Put EU-Turkey Membership And Free-Visa Request for Turkish Citizens At Serious Risk (Some Primary Consequences).

Another consequence:

Idlib will face a devastating bloodbath in the next couple of days.


M. Sirani                               19.12.2016

Stop Whining. Do You Want Really Counter Iran in the Middle East? This is Your Only Solution So Far.

It Should be added that changing the price of oil & gas is just one positive side effect of my Master Plan; A plan that without firing a single bullet can change the course of many events for good in the whole Middle East. 

The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. We should bear in mind that finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do specially at this critical juncture based on some reasons particularly: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

The Questions:

1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.

2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere. 

M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015

Three Biggest Historical Mistakes of the USA and Its Western Allies Since 1990 Onward (Maybe It's Too Late For A Wake Up Call).

Briefly:

Here below are the three biggest historical mistakes of the USA and its Western allies since 1990.

A- Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc, the USA and its western allies should have not supported and promoted any Islamic political system and group (Shiite, Sunni, etc) in the entire Asia, the Middle East & Africa; which they didn't.

B- Following the collapse of the socialism bloc in 1990, the USA and its western allies should have fully & respectfully integrated Russia into their orbit; which they didn't.

C- Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, the USA and its western allies should have fundamentally adjusted and changed their foreign policy with regards to China; which they didn't.

Imagine; What type of world had we, if the USA and its western allies would have followed the three policies mentioned above properly and professionally?

Note: The lack of these three policies mentioned above has cost a lot and will cost a lot for the USA and its western allies in the long term (beyond next 20-30 years and further; unless a miracle happens). We cannot reverse the historical clock back to those years; i fully understand that. The reason, i briefly explored these policies is the fact that the current U.S. administration (Obama) and its western allies are still moving in the totally wrong direction, which cost them much more than what they have paid since 1990 up until now.


M. Sirani                           14.12.2016

Important Development: Kyrgyz Parliament Ratifies Memorandum on Accession of India, Pakistan to The Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

As i predicted earlier through many short notes:

Iran will join the Shanghai Treaty in the future. The overall consequences of the membership of India, Pakistan and Iran in the SCO are predictable in different terms.


Note: Those geniuses decision makers can enjoy the result of their "Kindergarten Foreign Policy" now (Catch Iran; if you can).


M. Sirani                           14.12.2016

Warning: Iran's President Hassan Rouhani Orders Nuclear-Fuelled Warships (It's Time For Those Geniuses To Welcome Iran to International Nuclear Club).

Briefly:

A- Iran is one of the main shareholders of "ThyssenKrupp" since many years ago.

B- ThyssenKrupp has a contract to build three submarines for Israel, which they can carry nuclear missiles & warheads.

C- Just recently have been exposed that some secret details of ThyssenKrupp was stolen couple of months ago through some cyber attacks.

D- Iran has decided to develop nuclear-fuelled warships.

E- A nuclear warship or submarine needs above 50-60 % enriched uranium.


Note: Special thanks to geniuses Obama administration and its EU counterparts, which have facilitated the best path for Iranian Regime to become a nuclear armed state in the future in a very "legal & legitimate manner" without any problem.

Those geniuses should clean up their nuclear mess in the entire Middle East.


M. Sirani                        13.12.2016

Trump Administration is Missing "A Global Strategist" So Far. Without A Reliable Expert in This Regard, We Will Observe More Chaos & Confusion in International Arena Much Worse Than 8 Years Obama Administration.

Warning: The Civil War in Syria & Iraq Should Be Stopped As Soon As Possible; Otherwise the EU Would Face A Huge Problems in 2017.

Briefly:

Disintegration of the EU in 2017 means influx of millions of refugees toward EU countries. The EU countries should clean up the mess quickly as possible; before it's too late. Some geniuses in the EU capitals have absolutely no idea what is waiting for them in 2017.

Note: The result of your wrong policy with regards to the Middle East, Syria and Iraq is haunting you badly.



M. Sirani                           08.12.2016

Breaking: ThyssenKrupp (Germany Company) Secret Details Have Been Stolen Through Cyber Attack (A Serious Threat For Israel & The Rest of the World).

Briefly:

This event & its negative consequences in different terms including militarily & security matters are enormous.

Simply: The Iranian Regime is one of the shareholders of ThyssenKrupp. This company has a contract to build three submarines for Israel, which can carry nuclear missile or warhead.

Imagine the overall consequences.

Note: As long as you are in the hibernation mode, the Iranian Regime beats the hell out of you by all means in every battlefield. Shut down the kindergarten and do your job properly & professionally; before it's too late.



M. Sirani                           08.12.2016 

Total Confusion, Chaos & Incoherent Moves in Foreign Policy of Current UK Government (Disastrous in Short & Long Term).

Clean the mess up; before it's too late.


M. Sirani                   08.12.2016

Nero Burned Rome; Matteo Renzi Burned Not Only Italy, But Also is Going to Burn the Entire EU By His Wrong Referendum.

The collapse of the EU has been started.


M. Sirani                   5.12.2016

Brexit and Now Turkey, Greece, Italy And France! The EU is Not in A Good Shape; The Union is On the Verge of Collapse; Unless A Miracle Happens.

Briefly:

The chance for a miracle in International Relations or International Politics is very low or i might say nearly impossible. Thus, Good Luck Chancellor Merkel.


Note: There are some policies, which in case of implementation, they might function like "Damage Control Policies" and prevent the total collapse of the EU. But, i'm not sure about the 100% successful result of such policies at this stage, due to many reasons mainly A- Timing, B- Highly Bureaucratic-complicated structure & nature of the EU.   


M. Sirani                            04.12.2016

Some Simple Questions for M. Renzi.

Briefly:

1- What type of positive policies have you implemented for the overall well-being of majority of Italian people in the last couple of years?

2- How did you expect to obtain extra power and a YES-VOTE by such a poor resume?

3- Who were your genius advisers with regard to this referendum?


Note: Unbelievable; considering such a poor resume, you are asking the people to offer you additional power!!! How do some people come up with such a suicidal move? It's really shocking me. 


M. Sirani                              04.12.2016 

Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).

Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).




Briefly:

I don't want to go through my previous short notes dated couple of months or years ago in this regard. I just re-upload some of my short notes- predictions since last week. Once again, i repeat my warning: If the USA and the EU would not solve their differences with Turkey in a diplomatic, logical and reasonable manner, there is high probability that Turkey would join the Shanghai Treaty or totally bandwagon to China-Russia somewhere in the near future. Such a move would change the balance of power profoundly. Needless to explore the winners & losers of such a move and its consequences in different terms.



M. Sirani                          04.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous warnings in this regard.

1- Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means 

Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.

2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.

3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.

4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (President Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).

Note: Whether we like it or not, President Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 

M. Sirani                24.11.2016

2- The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU. 

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries has caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank).  



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

3- Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency. 

Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

Alexander Van der Bellen, the Pro-EU Candidate Won the Presidential Election in Austria (Don't Expect Such A Result With High Certainty in the Case of Italy & France in the Future).

Briefly: Don't be too happy and don't expect such a pro-European results in Italy and France in the future.

Just remember: Austria is surrounded by other EU countries and is located in the middle of the Union. The country does not have direct access to international water like Italy, France, Spain or Germany. Considering this fact and the notion that we are currently experiencing a global economic downturn, choosing a far-right wing candidate and consequently leaving the EU could have been a huge disaster (In different terms including trade) for Austria at this stage.

This is just one of those small but important details that some genius so-called "Think Tanks (I call them DING DANGS or Living Copier & Paster) do not pay attention to it in their jargon analysis. 

As such, don't be too happy and don't expect that such a Pro-European result with high certainty and probability might happen for Italy and France in the future, in my opinion.

Note: The EU is on the verge of collapse. 

M. Sirani                       04.12.2016 

Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency.

Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016

It Seems Germany is Allowing Other EU Citizens To Join Its Army (By Such A Suicidal Move, You Cannot Save the Shaky Structure of the EU).

Briefly:

If this news is true, the only thing i can tell to the politicians in Germany is:

Are you okay?

By such a suicidal move, you cannot save the shaky structure of the EU. If we lived in Perpetual Peace Community of E. Kant (WHICH, WE ARE NOT) such an idea might work.

Note: The high level of confusion of some people makes me totally speechless. O. V. Bismarck is spinning in his grave by such a news. 


M. Sirani                      03.12.2016

Arrivederci M. Renzi.

Warning: "Nobel Peace Laureate" Aung San Suu Kyi Would Drag Myanmar Into A New Civil War & Chaos.

Briefly:

The totally wrong and harsh policies of Aung San Suu kyi with regard to the Rohingya people would finally force the Myanmar Muslim people to revolt somewhere in the future. Such a hypothetical event would highly likely plunge the entire country into chaos and another civil war. In such an event, the Myanmar army would highly likely once again seize the power in the country through a new military coup.

Needless to explore the negative consequences of such an event at national, regional or global level.


M. Sirani                         02.12.2016            

The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU.

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank). 




M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

There is High Probability for Both FrancExit And ItalyExit. Either FrancExit or ItalyExit or Both Would Highly Likely Lead to the Total Collapse of the EU (Remember My Prediction).

Should this happen, Germany would lose a lot in different terms. Honestly, i don't see a bright future for Germany in this regard based on many reasons.

M. Sirani                     28.11.2016

What Most of the High Ranking Politicians & Distinguished Pundits Don't Get it (Remember My Short Prediction).

Globally, we are passing through a new transformation phase. The reason that confirms my statement in this matter is the notion that the current international laws, conventions, regulations and institutions in different terms do not function properly anymore. What we observed in Brexit and recently in the USA are the observable signs of the collapse of current world order. We are in the beginning of new era. An era that like Scientific Revolution or Industrial Revolution would deeply shape & change the course of our history in the future.  

We should design a totally new world order (some areas need fundamental change & replacement, some other areas need adjustment & reform) and shape the future events in a correct and proper direction. Otherwise, the gradual collapse of current world order, which is accompanied with destruction and chaos, would unintentionally & forcefully drag us to unknown risky directions. This is a very dangerous & scary scenario.


Note: We don't feel the Earth's motion, while the Earth is orbiting around the Sun. Like this example, most of the people do not experience & observe what i have briefly explained above. 
President-Elect Trump has correctly identified some of these structural problems. This trend is clearly visible in some of his speeches during the presidential race. How would he deal with these problems; how would he design a new world order to deal with these issues, are some questions, which it is too soon to answer them with high accuracy at this stage. 



M. Sirani                            25.11.2016 

Warning: If the EU would Not Be Able to Solve Its Problem With Turkey, The EU Would Experience the First Wave/s of Refugees (And Terror) In the Near Future.

And Terror: Due to the fact that ISIS or other Islamic Terrorist Groups would deploy their followers into the EU among refugees.


Note: Obama administration and the EU have bribed Turkey; have closed their eyes to various regressive developments in Turkey throughout the last couple of years. Now is Payback Time. The lack of a proper agreement between EU & Turkey would hit all the EU countries in different terms. Within the EU, those states, which have the large numbers of Turks and Kurds citizens would suffer the most; due to the additional clash between Turks & Kurds.  I don't see a pretty future for Germany not only in this case but also in other areas. 

As such, i don't think A. Merkel government would be able to survive in the upcoming political turmoil in Germany. 

M. Sirani                   25.11.2016

President-Elect Trump's NATO Remarks and The Newly Approved EU Army. Who Should Offer D. Trump An Apology?

Briefly:

Throughout the last couple of months, D. Trump has been criticizing NATO based on two main reasons as follows. A- NATO is obsolete. B- All the members of NATO should pay their fair shares.

Both arguments of D. Trump in this regard are logical and correct based on many reasons. For example, NATO is the most powerful military entity in the world. But, when it comes to a small state like Afghanistan and small group like Taliban, NATO has not been able to establish peace and instability in that country after nearly 15 years war. So is the case of ISIS. NATO couldn't stop or prevent various terrorist attacks of ISIS followers across the EU. The argument of D. Trump in this regard is totally correct; simply because the nature of warfare in some areas around the world has changed. At the present time asymmetrical & proxy war are the most used warfare around the world. When it comes to this type of war, NATO is totally paralyzed and obsolete, whether those NATO Generals like this argument are not. This is a fact.

When it comes to paying the fair share by all NATO members, D. Trump's argument is also correct. This issue would be totally understandable, if we consider some other factors such as A- The current national debt of the USA (Nearly $20 Trillion dollars), B- The total amount of trade deficit of the USA, C- The competitive economic power of the USA in comparison with other rising economic powers around the world, the high rates unemployment in the USA, increasing level of poverty among US citizens and many other factors.

Despite the fact that these two arguments of D. Trump were / are logical & reasonable, many politicians and pundits within the USA and around the world accused him in a very unfair and unethical manner by saying that Trump would weaken NATO or Trump would dissolve NATO.
After all these unjust and inaccurate accusation, we hear that the EU parliament has recently approved a resolution, which would allow the creation of the EU Army.

Due to the fact that establishment of such a military entity parallel to NATO would fundamentally weaken NATO, someone should ask all those critics: who has dissolved and weakened NATO? D. Trump or those genius, who designed & approved the creation of the EU Army? Who should offer D. Trump an apology in this regard?



M. Sirani                       25.11.2016   

The EU Parliament Has Approved A Resolution To Create "The EU Army". (This Project Will Highly Likely Fail).

Regardless of the overall impact of this new army on NATO, overlapping and clash between these two military entities, this project will highly likely fail due to many reasons particularly the notion that the entire EU is not in a very good shape in different terms at the present time. To put it simply, the EU is on the verge of collapse. As such, creating a NEW EU ARMY cannot like a glue keep different parts of the EU together.


Note: This project is based on some unrealistic & illogical assessments and will highly likely fail. Both, A. Merkel and F. Hollande are committing political suicide and also are increasing the debts for Germany & France by this move; of course if they would implement this project.



M. Sirani                     25.11.2016

Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means

Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.

2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.

3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.

4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).

Note: Whether we like it or not, Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 

M. Sirani                24.11.2016

Remember My Prediction: The EU is Not in A Very Good Shape; The Collapse of the Union Somewhere in the Future is Highly Likely Inevitable (The EU Had 26 Years Time; But It Didn't Use It Properly).

Thanks to "Kindergarten Foreign Policy" of Obama Administration, The EU and NATO, R. Erdogan Says: Turkey Could Join The Shanghai Treaty Bloc (I predicted such a move Briefly Two Years Ago).

Those genius policy makers in Obama administration, the EU and NATO are left with two options as follows:

A- They should bribe Turkey "once again" (In addition to $6 billion amid refugees) in order to keep Turkey where it is now in terms of EU, NATO & the USA.

B- With crying eyes, they should watch how Turkey is joining the Shanghai Treaty somewhere in the future.

Note: What would be the negative consequences of such a move in different terms? (I'm not sure those genius in Obama administration, the EU and NATO have a clear clue in this regard).


M. Sirani                           20.11.2016

It Seems Russia is Agreed to Sell Anti-Aircraft S-400 Systtem to Turkey; While NATO is in the Hibernation Mode.

Egypt & Turkey would highly likely bandwagoning to Russia somewhere in the future; thanks to Kindergarten Foreign Policy of Obama admin and those genius decision makers in NATO, who are physically living in 2016, but when it comes to their mentality, they are living in 1960s & 70s.


M. Sirani                19.11.2016 

Many People Probably Hundreds of Millions Around the World Didn't & Still Don't Get It That Trump's Victory in the USA Saved The Entire World From A Possible Third World War.

President-Elect Trump Has Not Arrived in the White House; But Trump Tsunami Has Already Started to Hit the World.

Briefly: (The Backlash of Kindergarten Foreign Policy of Some Kids)

Just follow the various development around the world.

Bulgaria: A pro-socialist- Russia President won the election in Bulgaria.
Moldova: A pro-Russia President will highly likely win the election in Moldova.


Note: The unnecessary conflict in Ukraine has also played an important role in these developments as well. Many changes in different terms are ahead of all us no matter where we live.

M. Sirani                       13.11.2016

Brexit======>Americaexit======>Highly Likely Francexit + Italyeixt======>Collapse of the EU

Briefly: The EU had 26 golden years opportunity; but it didn't use it properly. I believe it is too late to reverse the time back again and implement a new series of policy to save itself from the upcoming mandatory collapse. If my prediction would come true, Germany would lose the most in both within the EU region & consequently at global level.

If Trump administration plays smart, the USA can win and gain a lot in different terms at global level.


M. Sirani                      13.11.2016

The Political Joke of 2016.

Briefly:

A group of U.S. based genius think tanks, who couldn't have a correct analysis and prediction about a simple event like the result of recent presidential election in the USA, has offered President-Elect D. J. Trump their expertise with regards to various development and events around the world.

Note: I'm speechless.

M. Sirani                      12.11.2016 

We Need A New World Order Urgently; The Current One Does Not Function Properly. Brexit & Americaexit are the First Alarming Signs.

Briefly:

Different factors indicate a fact that current international institutions, laws and regulations do not function properly. The effects of such weaknesses in different terms are Chrystal Clear and observable everywhere in both developed and underdeveloped countries. There are ongoing civil wars in many areas, while the United Nations is unable to solve them. There are increasing rates of unemployment all around the world. Large numbers of people nearly 65 million people are refugees or displaced people and many other examples.

All examples noted above, indicate a fact that we need a New World Order. Those superpower or regional powers, which do not understand this important factor and do not do anything about it, will undoubtedly decline in different terms & forms.


M. Sirani                    09.11.2016  

Clinton Campaign is Worried About Trump Proposal Amid Deeper & Further Prosecution of Clinton Activities & Clinton Foundation.

Briefly: Based on many data, the majority of U.S. citizens do not trust the political system and institutions in their country. This problem should be solved immediately & broadly.

For the sake of mainly A- safety and security of the USA and the U.S. citizens, B- improving the rule of law & order within U.S. political system, and C- Removing the gap between the people and political system, President Trump should fulfill his promise in this regard. If President Trump ignores this important task, he will lose some of his popularity & credibility among the public not only among the American people but also in the entire world. This issue would be worse than the case of "Closing Guantanamo Prison" for Obama; due to the fact that the scope of damage and destruction that Clinton's activities caused for U.S. political system and citizens in different terms are much higher and bigger than the case of Guantanamo. Moreover, If President Trump would not pursue the justice in case of ClintonGate, Clinton and her powerful allies would paralyze Trump administration in different terms and would not allow him to reach the end of his first 4 years term. Thus, along with those Ethical Reforms, this case should be re-investigated again and justice should be served. Such a move, would empower & strengthen Trump administration in different terms whether at domestic or foreign arena and would be a positive historical lesson for future generations of the USA. It could be: A Type of Unforgettable Justifiable Legacy, which has closed a dirty and dark chapter in the entire U.S. history. 

Note: What is worried me the most: Obama would give Amnesty to Clintons. 


M. Sirani                             09.11.2016 

Some Important Lessons of 2016 U.S. Election.

Briefly:

Without any doubt, the recent presidential election of the USA has had different types of lessons for different types of people not only within the USA but also around the world. Among all these lessons some of them are worthy to understand & consider as follows.

1- This election exposed the deep and broad scope and scale of corruption, criminal, illegal and illegitimate activities of various parts of U.S. political system for the entire world community.

2- Along with Brexit, the recent U.S. election and wining D. Trump as the next president indicates a fact that the collapse of Globalization Era has started. The experience of couple of decades globalization has had only poverty, unemployment, marginalization, disaster, chaos, tension and war (etc) for the majority of people all around the world. Throughout all these years, the corrupt politicians and pundits have done nothing to solve all these fundamental problems. As such, the majority of people have tried to bypass the corrupt politicians and pundits and fix their problems by this type of reaction like Brexit and voting for D. Trump. To put it simply, the entire world needs a new "World Order". The current world order needs fundamental adjustment and reforms.

3- The UK and the USA are two of the most economic powers in the world. Brexit and the result of recent election in the USA will impact the entire world not only in economic term but also in other arenas. As an example, some other countries might highly likely decide to follow the path of the UK and the USA in this matter. In this respect, France is one of the best candidate. If France would follow the path of UK & USA, the entire EU would highly likely collapse.

4- This election exposed the dishonesty and untrustworthy of large parts of media, pundits and politicians around the world for the entire international community. Throughout the last couple of months, for example, we all observed numerous polls, which showed Clinton was leading; not once or twice; hundreds times. If these types of polls were a few, we could have come to a logical conclusion such as "Scientific Error" or mistake. But couple of hundreds polls showing Clinton was leading, is not a simple Scientific Error. The result of recent U.S. election and wining D. Trump by a landslide, however, indicates a fast that media, politicians and pundits fabricated the polls and lied to all people around the world. As a result, the majority of people around the world do not trust media, some politicians and pundits anymore. Building the trust between ordinary people and the group of media, pundits and politicians would take couple of years time. This is a devastating news for all political systems around the world; due to the fact that media play an important role in every single society around the world. In addition, Those, who have academically studied Statistics & Research Methods remember Dewey-Truman error, From now on, all the books & articles in this subject, instead of Dewey-Truman error, would use Clinton-Trump (fake & fabricated polls).


M. Sirani                                         09.11.2016  

Congratulations To the American People And the Entire World: The Criminal, Corrupt And Warmonger Hillary Clinton Was Not Elected.

As i Predicted In Many Occasions, Since nearly 2 Years Ago, A Republican i.e. Donald Trump Was Elected As The Next President of the USA.

Without Cheating & Fraud, Trump will Highly Likely Win the Election By A Landslide.

Be Prepared For Series of Uprisings & Revolts Across the USA In the Next Coming Days; If Trump Will Not Be Elected.

Briefly:

In a new statement, FBI Director J. Comey states that FBI would not press any charge against Hillary Clinton. FBI’s unfair, unjust and unethical reactions happen, while every single criminal, illegal and illegitimate activities of Hillary Clinton could face a trial and severe legal punishment and imprisonment; while the majority of American people have been reading numerous leaked scandalous emails of Hillary Clinton and her allies on daily bases, whether through Wikileaks or any other sources. 

Comey's statement in this matter is not a pleasant event for tens of millions Americans, who are supporting D. J. Trump. FBI Director J. Comey should wish Trump will be elected as the next U.S. President. Otherwise, the unfair, unjust and unethical decision of J. Comey would enforce tens of thousands Americans, who deeply are sicking tired of corruption within U.S. political system, to revolt across the USA in the next coming days. FBI Director J. Comey should understand that the majority of Americans don't tolerate anymore such unfair, unjust and unethical behavior. If J. Comey has enough knowledge and data about high rates unemployment, poverty, inequality before the law, large numbers of marginalized people, homeless, discrimination, food stamps, etc, he would have not released such a statement at such a historical critical moment. The statement of J. Comey released today, is the biggest mistake of FBI and its Director in my opinion. 

Note: If Trump will not be elected, the waves of uprising & revolt will hit many places in the USA. FBI Director Comey should consider:

A- The Large numbers of marginalized Afro-Americans, Hispanics and in short minorities, who are not satisfied with their conditions in different terms.

Plus

B- The Large numbers of Trump supporters, who are sicking tired of corruption within the U.S. political system.

Plus

C- The hibernated followers of ISIS, Al-Qaeda and those radical Islamic terrorist groups, who are waiting for a chaotic environment to pursue their terrorist activities. 

Important: Does FBI Director Comey or any other U.S. politician understand what would happen to the USA, when the combination of these three actors mentioned above simultaneously would erupt?
(Whether some like it or not; i don't care. But i believe BUNCH OF INEXPERIENCED KIDS ARE GOVERNING THE USA. These bunch of kids not only are ruining the USA in different terms, but also causing enormous instability, chaos and disater around the world; simply because they are kids; simply because they don't have proper knowledge, working experience and qualification).

M. Sirani                      06.11.2016

The Arab Spring is Causing The Western Spring.

Briefly: (Those, who follow the news & development in various parts of the world, understand what i'm talking about).

Colin Powell designed "Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative". Implementation of this plan caused massive uprising, turmoil and instability known as "Arab Spring" across the Middle East & North Africa.

The backlash of this totally wrong plan in different terms e.g. influx of refugees and the threat of radical Islamic terrorism is targeting the western countries and is causing the Western Spring.
In this respect, Brexit, the diminishing popularity of some political leaders in the West e.g. Angela Markel in Germany, the rise of right wing political parties across the EU and winning the current U.S. election by D. Trump could be mentioned.


Note: None of these genius Think Tanks (in my opinion Ding Dangs) has written a simple essay in this regard. These genius are good only in Copying & Pasting the historical events and nothing else.  


M. Sirani                5.11.2016

What Did I Predict Nearly Two Years Ago About 2016 U.S. Election?

The Next President of the USA Will Be A Republican.

The Next President of the USA Will Be A Republican.

I don't believe to astrology or prediction of an event in the future based on some type of dream or nightmare. But with high probability, i can say that the next president of the USA will be a Republican; unless a fundamental miracle happens in the foreign policy of the Obama administration in the next two years. If the Republican party chooses good and smart candidate and vice president (Not someone like Sara Palin; with all due respect to her), the party will win the next election by highest margin.

In short, i'm not a fan of Republican party or Neocon group or so-called warmongers. But, when it comes to the foreign policy, we (most of the people around the world) knew what the President Bush did want; we knew where his foreign policy would end up; we knew what was his main objective in every move. But with the Obama administration such a prediction is almost impossible. The administration moves first and then in the middle of the way stop in order to find a solution. In this respect, different examples could be mentioned. The latest chemical attack in Syria, which took place on 21.08.21013 is an example; when the President said the U.S. would attack Syria and later he changed his decision.

The recent unnecessary tension in Ukraine is another example. Such an unnecessary tension, which was based on wrong analysis and miscalculation of the administration has dragged Ukraine into a devastating and destructive civil war. This event, in addition, has caused many economic, political and social problems for Ukraine and the whole EU in different scales. Who/ how/when do you want to solve the problem in Ukraine? What did you achieve in this conflict so far?

The current war against ISIS is another example of mismanagement and miscalculation of the Obama administration. The administration has begun a war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria and it has called it "Systematic Counter Terrorism Strategy". But there are lots of flaw and ambiguity in this plan as i have discussed some of them in my short essay entitled: Obama's plan against ISIS: a fundamental solution or opening a new Pandora's Box in the Middle East. As i follow the news, i have come to the conclusion that this is not a Counter Terrorism Strategy, because words including "Strategy" have their own meaning and definition. What we are witnessing in Iraq and Syria are just some sudden tactical military operations in Iraq and Syria without any real future perspective.

The same as other examples mentioned above, the administration has begun with some move in Iraq and Syria; but they don't know where exactly they are going. They have started the war; but in the Middle of the way they have come up with the idea that they need ground forces; because the air strikes alone do not function properly. They have started the war in a hope that the moderate Syrian opposition gain the momentum on the ground against Assad's Regime; but in the middle of the way they have understood that the Syrian moderate opposition does not have proper capacity to do that. So is the case of Iraqi forces. So is the case of members of the coalition. Some of them have supported the ISIS and Al-Nusra front in different terms for many years. Now, they are members of a coalition against ISIS. Some like Turkey performs prisoners swap with ISIS, while innocent American and English journalists and aid workers such as Alan Henning would be beheaded by ISIS, etc.

Based on all mentioned above and many other examples, i predict that the next president of the USA will be a Republican. 

Foreign policy based on spontaneous and impulsive decision would undoubtedly end up to a huge fiasco.    


Sirani                              07.10.2014

Warning: Global Economic Downturn: Stock Market Will Highly Likely Go Down At Global Level For A While; The Price of Gold Will Also Increase for A While (Lucky Canada Signed CETA Deal With EU & Saved Itself To Some Extent).

Briefly: Trump will win the election in a landslide.

At global level, some countries have a very slow economic growth or some are in reality experiencing an economic recession. Economically, things are getting more chaotic & worse and we will experience more economic downturn. How far or how deep and how long? I cannot say anything in these matters at the present. But i predict, some countries might highly likely experience deeper recession, or some type of double-dip recession and in some extreme cases (In terms of prolonging & timing) some countries might experience economic depression for a while.

Note: Canada & Mexico will be hit badly. (I'm fully aware that Canada was one of those few states, which didn't experience economic depression or recession in 2008 global economic crisis. Regarding the upcoming economic downturn, i should imply that Canada is lucky; due to the fact that just couple days ago, Canada signed CETA deal with EU. Canada has saved itself to some extent. But not Mexico.


M. Sirani                   03.11.2016   

Moody's Analytics Model Predicts Today That Hillary Clinton Will Win the Election By A Landslide. I "Mehran Sirani" Say Donald Trump Will Win the Election By a Landslide Based on Many Reasons & Factors.

Let see an internationally famous organization like Moody is predicting correctly or Mehran Sirani. (Bunch of copiers & pasters call themselves analyst or expert).

M. Sirani                  02.11.2016

650,000 New Emails Were Found in Weiner’s Laptop!!! (A Failed State Like Somalia or Current Iraq Has Better Security & Intelligence Regulations Than The Super Power USA).

Briefly:

Just think about the followings. 

A- Clinton worked as the Secretary of State for nearly four years. It means: 365 x 4= 1460 days ======> Clinton worked at SD.

B- FBI has found 650,000 emails in a separate file entitled “Insurance” or something like this in A. Weiner's computer. If we divide 650,000 emails on the number of days that H. Clinton has worked in SD, 650,000 ÷ 1460 days= We come to nearly 445 emails daily! It means Clinton has received or sent nearly 445 emails on average every single day. Just think about it: Considering the important task of a Secretary of State in different terms, how many employees are needed to check, read and answer this size of highly classified, confidential and officially important emails for Hilary Clinton every single day?

What do I think? I think these 650,000 emails are private archive of Hillary Clinton about her last couple of years’ activities. H. Clinton didn’t want FBI or any other governmental entity could have access to her private archive. At the same time, she didn’t want to totally delete and bleach her archive permanently based on many reasons including her Grandiose Foundation. In such a circumstance, H. Clinton should have saved her archive in a very protected area & close to a trustworthy person. In this respect, who was better than Huma Abedin. Huma was like a daughter for Hillary as she repeatedly claims. To put it simply, in my opinion, these 650,000 emails are precious sources and can clearly expose illegal, illegitimate & criminal activities of Clinton dynasty; of course, if they would be in the hands of right people, not corrupt ones. 

Note: A Failed State Like Somalia or Current Iraq Has Better Security & Intelligence Regulations Than The Super Power USA. 

The ridiculous part is here that one of U.S. based news agencies said that Huma Abedin was sent State Department's Docs to her Yahoo email; because she could print them easier in her Yahoo account (Pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Don't Bulshit. Even in the remote area in the middle of the rain forest, every member of those tribes, who lives there, understand that you are bulshiting. Thus, shut down the kindergarten and clean up the mess in your system and moreover, don't blame Russian spies. Because, Your kindergarten does not need spy. Some genius people like Hillary Clinton, Huma Abedin and many other like them would publish all classified & confidential documents in the internet in different ways & terms.  
Just think about the following:
In the USA, you have CIA, NSA, BFI and many other security & intelligence entities. In comparison with the rest of the world, the USA is number one with regards to security & intelligence issues. All of a sudden, you hear nearly 650,000 emails related to high ranking employees of U.S. State Department have been found in the private computer of Mr A. Weiner, who is thinking with his penis instead of his brain. How do you analyze this event? How would FBI, CIA, NSA; etc react in this matter? What type of excuse do they have in this matter? 
Not to mention that Huma Abedin as the closest employee of H. Clinton didn't have "Security Clearance", while she was working in the State Department; while she had the password of Hillary Clinton's personal & professional emails. You are unbelievable. No wonder, the USA is rapidly declining in different terms.   


M. Sirani                   31.10.2016  

Exclusive: A Ballistic Missile Fired From Yemen Towards Mecca Was Intercepted (65 km Distance to Mecca).

Briefly:

Special thanks to Obama, Clinton & Kerry and others, who didn't pay attention to my warning nearly 6 years ago. To refresh the memory of some:

For further details, you can read my essay entitled "Iran should not get the nuclear bomb" in the following link:

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.no/2014/11/iran-should-not-get-nuclear-bomb.html


M. Sirani                  27.10.2016

Smart UK Wants to Have Access to more Than 500 Million Population Size of EU Market From A Backdoor Like CETA Deal Between Canada & EU.

Briefly:

In addition to current global economic downturn:
A- The UK economy is not & will not be in a very good shape in the next coming years following the Brexit.

B- Brexit has shaken the foundation of CETA deal for Canada after nearly 7 years effort.

C- The upcoming U.S. election: Trump has repeatedly said that he would change the NAFTA deal for the benefit of the USA. In case of Trump presidency, Canada will face major economic uncertainty & trouble along with many countries around the world.


M. Sirani                  24.10.2016

Arming the Syrian Rebels With Anti Aircraft Weapons; Think Twice. Because, Russia, Iran, China & Assad's Regime Can Do The Same.

Briefly: If U.S. - led coalition arms the Syrian Rebels with Anti aircraft missiles:

Russia, China, Iran & Assad's forces might not directly attack the U.S. -led coalition air forces at this stage. But, there are many Shiite affiliates, who are fighting for the benefit of Iranian regime in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, etc. Russia, China, Iran or Assad's Regime can simply arm those non-state Shiite actors with anti aircraft weapons in retaliation and create a No-Fly-Zone for U.S. - Led coalition in many areas in Syria & Iraq.

Note: Current condition in the Middle East & Syria is not like Afghanistan in 1980s. Avoid Mirror Imaging. 

M. Sirani                 24.10.2016

20 Turkish Tanks have Entered into North Syria (Once Again: No-Fly-Zone in Syria Means A Broad War in Many Battlefields Beyond Syria).

Those, who would try to perform No-Fly-Zone in Syria will badly lose the battle based on my calculations. Thus; don't ever think about it.

Note: You might be able to compete with Russia & China in military terms in this battle, but you cannot win the broad & prolonged proxy wars designed by Iranian Regime & its affiliates neither in Syria, nor in Iraq nor in Lebanon & many other places in the Middle East such as Bahrain and even within Saudi Arabia. Iran has not used all its resources in Bahrain & Saudi Arabia yet; but that does not mean it can't.

I hate the Iranian regime and i hate to say that. But this is a fact based on my calculations in different terms from both sides of this battle.



M. Sirani                        23.10.2016

It Seems My Prediction About Shutting Down Internet Because of Assange, Was Correct.

The Twitter Message of Wikileaks:

M. Sirani              21.10.2016

Some Cut Off Assange's Internet. This Event Has Probably Pissed Off Many Actors Around the World. Twitter, PayPal, Netflix And Many Other Websites Are Down Maybe Due to This Issue.

Briefly:

The world has change & is changing faster than some might think. One thing is Chrystal Clear and that is that no individual, no institution, no state is so powerful to govern or impose its authority like before.
Note: In the cyber era, there is no powerful state in the world. Every single individual, who has extensive knowledge in cyber subject, can paralyze the most powerful state in the world.  

M. Sirani               21.10.2016

Warning: Obama to Decide Military Strikes on Syria Tomorrow (Friday, 14.10.2016) (Invaders on Syria Will Undoubtedly Lose the battle in Different Terms in Many Battlefields Not Only Within Syria But Also Beyond Syria Across The Middle East.

Briefly: I'm totally against the Iranian Regime, But:

Any military strikes on Syria, Syrian army or Syrian Regime institutions by any state no matter who powerful, will undoubtedly lead to a total failure of invaders in different terms beyond the geographical territory of Syria across the entire Middle East, some parts of Africa and probably in Ukraine as well.

Such a move:

1- Would create a broad and prolong war and proxy wars in multiple battlefields.
2- Would facilitate the best fertile land for many new Radical Islamic Groups in addition to current ones like ISIS or Al-Qaeda.
3- Would facilitate a best opportunity for various radical Islamic groups to deploy some of their forces into the EU territory.
4- Would probably paralyze the normal transportation route of oil and gas from the Middle East to other areas around the world.
5- Would cause the collateral damage of large numbers of innocent civilians.
6- Would highly likely change not only the balance of power but also some political systems in the entire region in a very drastic, fast and fundamental manner.
7- Such a chaotic environment would undoubtedly drag Israel into direct military confrontation with some state/s and non-state actors.

etc.

The consequences of military strikes on Syrian regime are numerous. I just can say that such a move, exactly like the First World War will automatically drag many states and non-state actors into an endless and broad war in many battlefields; something that nobody, no state or no international body will be able to finish it in a short period of time. Such a move in a very optimistic manner, will be a huge regional suicide for some.

Thus: Don't be stupid; avoid any miscalculation mirror imaging and adventurism; think twice.

M. Sirani                  13.10.2016

Iran is Mainly Testing A- Its Missiles And B- The Vulnerabilities of U.S. Navies in Gulf of Aden and The Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. (Do Not Underestimate).

A Warning For International Community: Any Attempt For Establishing A No-Fly-Zone in Syria Would Lead to A Total War in Many Battlefields Beyond the Syrian Borders.

Briefly:

Those, who have visited my blog, would easily understand how do i think & feel about the Iranian Regime; They would simply understand that as an Iranian dissident in exile, i believe that the Iranian Regime should be overthrown. But when it comes to current situation in Syria, i don't let my logical will and wish with regards to the future of  Iranian Regime close my eyes to the reality on the ground in Syria.
I follow the news about various events in the Middle East including the Syrian civil war carefully on daily bases. I have been noticed that since couple of months ago up until now, many preparations in various parts of the Middle East and Eastern parts of the EU have been done. All these separate preparations ( in terms of timing and geography) like some separate pieces of a puzzle are gradually sticking together and forming a complete picture about a plan for Syria for me. A prepared No-Fly-Zone plan, which is waiting for a suitable moment, to be quickly performed.

This is a totally wrong plan at this stage and in case of implementation, it would lead to a total war and chaos beyond the geographical borders of Syria; beyond the will, power and authority of any state.

Note: Current Syria is not former Yugoslavia in 1994-5, nor is Iraq in 1990-1, nor is Libya in 2011. AVOID MISCALCULATION AND MIRROR IMAGING. 


In terms of power and authority of the central government, some might think that the current Assad's regime is weak and is similar to those political systems in Iraq (1990-91) or Libya(2011). There is no doubt that the civil war has weakened the Regime and Bashar Assad has lost some parts of the country either to ISIS or some rebel groups. But this issue is not the only determinant factor in case of implementation of a No-Fly-Zone. There are many other important factors, which the combination of all of them distinguishes the weak Assad's Regime from those weak political systems.  

M. Sirani              30.09.2016

The Islamic Regime of Iran is Warning: Hundreds of Thousands Afghan Refugees Sheltered in Iran Are Trying to Reach the EU (Political Extortion).

Briefly:

As i predicted earlier, the USA & EU policy to give nearly $6 billion dollars to Turkey for sheltering the refugees in that country not only is not an effective policy; on the contrary this policy will encourage other states in the region to demand money from the USA & EU in this regard.
The current statement of the Iranian Regime should be understood in this respect. In short, Iran wants money (Political Extortion); otherwise it will open its borders to the large numbers of Afghan refugees to move towards the EU.

(Enjoy the fruit of your Kindergarten Foreign Policy).


M. Sirani                  20.09.2016

The USA & EU under the imminent Threat of Radical Islamic Terrorists.

Briefly:

Do the USA & EU have any effective and comprehensive strategy whatsoever with regards to radical Islamic terrorism?  The current situation that we all are experiencing, shows not at all; the genius corrupt politicians, policy makers and pundits, who have the power & authority, do not have any plan in this regards after all these years.


M. Sirani                      19.09.2016  

Any Attempt For Establishing A No-Fly-Zone in North Syria Without A Collective Consensus of Assad's Regime, Iran & Russia Means A Declaration of War; A Total War Across the Middle East and Some Parts of Africa.

Briefly:

Needles to explore the negative consequences of such a move in this short note. Because, this is a simple and basic fact and those genius politicians (Living Copier & Paster) in Obama administration and EU countries should have an appropriate knowledge about it.

The US, UK and Germany ground forces, whether in the form of combat, training or logistic forces, have been deployed into Syria since many couple of months ago as far as i know. In addition to this, the Turkish army has recently started an offensive operation inside Syria since couple of days ago. Many shallow minded & illiterate politicians across the region and some western countries including genius H. Clinton have been proposing a No-Fly-Zone in North Syria. The combination of all these moves and talks indicates a fact that it seems the desperate countries want to commit a suicide in Syria. I have written a short note in this matter one month ago. Those who are interested, can visit the following link.

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.no/2016/08/warning-establishing-no-fly-zone-in.html 



M. Sirani              11.09.2016

Warning: Hilary Clinton is Like A Sinking Ship; So, Perform A "Risk Management" Before Supporting Her.

Briefly:

No matter what would be the outcome of upcoming presidential election in the U.S.; no matter Clinton would be the next U.S. president or not, one thing is Chrystal Clear and that is:

Due to continuous Emails and Clinton Foundation scandals, Hilary Clinton is like a sinking ship. She will drag down with herself her wealthy & powerful supporters at national, regional and global levels. As long as Clinton continues with the presidential race, many curious people (Ally & Enemy) around the world would focus on Clinton. As a result, more names and contacts would be released in the public domain. In other words, Clinton scandals would be shared with other wealthy, powerful & famous people around the world. Such an event would ruin the reputation of many people around the world, in addition to Clintons.

Based on brief noted above, it would be wise that both Bill & Hillary Clinton retire themselves from all political activities and enjoy the rest of their lives with couple of hundreds millions dollars, which have been donated to their so-called "Foundation". Otherwise, the international community would face a big problem; due to the fact that Clinton scandals are much worse than Watergate Scandal.


M. Sirani                        30.08.2016

Warning: Establishing a No-Fly-Zone in North Syria Means A Dangerous Total War Between Various Actors (Desperate & Chaotic Obama Administration).

Briefly:

The ridiculous part of the story is here. In the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, while Russia and China were not directly involved in this conflict as they are today; while Iran was under the severe sanctions imposed by the International Community, Obama admin did nothing seriously with regards to this conflict. As it appears now, it seems the Obama administration is trying  intensify the tension in Syria and consequently  facilitate a ground base to establish a no-fly-zone in North Syria somewhere in the near future. Such a move, (in addition to its cost and technical possibility)  in case of implementation, will be compatible with H. Clinton's plan for Syria and accordingly might be useful in her presidential race against D. Trump, who is advocating another policy in this matter.

This is a very dangerous policy; if my assumption and prediction in this regard are correct. Establishing a No-Fly-Zone in North Syria at this stage means the beginning of an endless total war; a total war, which undoubtedly will spread to other areas in the region by all means. Such a horrific event and its devastating consequences will not be a pleasant event for nobody. (By nobody, i mean all the internal, external actors and the poor Syrian people).

Note: I hope those genius in Washington and other capitals involved in this conflict do not start a stupid move like this in Syria at this stage.


M. Sirani               20.08.2016

Obama Administration Deliberately Handed Over Yemen To The Iranian Regime in Return For the Weak & Useless Nuclear Deal.

Briefly:

Different evidences indicate a fact that that Obama administration has sacrificed many issues and paid the Iranian Regime numerous advantages in different terms in order to make a weak & useless nuclear deal with the Islamic Regime. The chaotic situation in Yemen and superiority of Houthis group backed by Iran in this country is an example in this matter. All these devastating events happen in Yemen, while i warned the international community about Yemen in 2011. How on earth, the administration of Obama as the most powerful country in the world and its numerous strong intelligence and security services didn't have a reasonable and logical analysis with regards to various developments in Yemen throughout all these years is a questionable theme. Based on this brief info, i can say that participation of US army in Saudi Arabia coalition in war in Yemen was just a "Cat & Mouse" game in order to delude Arab countries with regards to the nuclear deal with Iran and the secret details behind the scene of this deal and nothing else.

 The map above is part of my essay in this regard.
Title: Iran Should not Get the Nuclear Bomb.

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.no/2014/11/iran-should-not-get-nuclear-bomb.html

M. Sirani                     20.08.2016

Breaking: It Seems the USA is Removing its Nuclear Weapons From Turkey and Moving Them to Romania.

Briefly: (I emphasize: If this story is true). As a result of "Kindergarten Foreign Policy", It seems Turkey is detaching from the West under the watch and before the eyes of Obama Administration.

There is a rumor in the media that the USA is removing its nuclear weapons from Turkey and is moving them to Romania.

If this story is true, this is a very big development in different terms and has many consequences in various forms, terms and scales.
First and foremost, this development would be a great victory for Russia and Iran. Removing the US nuclear weapons from Turkey after nearly 60-70 years means a lot for both Iran & Russia.

The consequences of this move, on the contrary, would be devastating in different terms for USA and EU. Here below, some possible negative consequences of this move would be briefly mentioned.

A- This development shows that all the strategists and policy makers in NATO, USA (Obama administration-J. Kerry & H. Clinton) and EU have not had any correct, reasonable, logical and reliable analysis with regards to various developments in Turkey in the last couple of years until recently, whether its domestic as well as its foreign affairs. If they had, they would have prevented such a disastrous event. This is a big failure mostly for Obama administration & NATO that they haven't done a good observation with regards to all the movements of Erdogan government in the last couple of years.

B- Removing nuclear weapons from Turkey and relocating them in Romania simply & clearly indicates a fact that the situation in Turkey is unstable. Regardless of the reaction of Turkey in this matter, which would be negative definitely, this event shows that NATO is experiencing a powerful earthquake in a way that some powerful external factors have forced USA & NATO to remove the nuclear weapons from the Geo-Strategically important territory of Turkey.

C- The negative consequences of this move are enormous & devastating. This event might highly likely put the EU membership of Turkey at a serious risk. I might say this event would put an end to that process automatically.

D- This event along with many other issues such as EU demands from Turkey, the presence of F. Gulen in the USA, some accusation about the recent military coup in Turkey, etc would highly likely deteriorate the relationship between Turkey and USA-EU in different terms including the situation of more than 3 million refugees, who are sheltered in Turkey. As a consequence, USA-EU and Turkey might not be able to achieve a good deal in this matter. As such, the EU might face a new waves of influx of refugees in the near future.

E- Based on many reasons, which i have briefly explored them in some previous notes, Turkey will highly likely expand its relationship in different terms with Russia & Iran in the region. Such a coalition will change the balance of power in the region to a large extent. This issue is not a pleasant event neither for the USA, nor for the EU nor for the Saudi Arabia nor for Egypt nor for some other Arab countries in the region including Israel.

F- This event will put an end to the dream of an independent Kurdish State at least for some decades to come; due to deeper and broader cooperation between Turkey, Iran, central government in Iraq (which is the puppet of Iranian regime) and POSSIBLY Bashar Assad.


G- This event should teach a good lesson to old-fashioned pundits and politicians in the USA and EU. The lesson is that it is the time that USA & EU should put an end to their 40-45 years old policy amid supporting and promoting various types of Islamic states, Islamic groups, and more generally Islamization in the Middle East and Africa. Because time has changed and any continuation in this matter would be disastrous and devastating  first and foremost for the Western countries.

Note: Analyzing this event and its overall consequences is a huge discussion. What i mentioned above is just a brief explanation in this matter. Once again, i emphasize: If this news is true, this is a big fiasco for the USA, NATO and EU; on the contrary is a big win for the Iranian Regime & Russia at regional as well as global level.


M. Sirani                           19.08.2016  

An Extremely Delusional and Misleading Assumption About Recent Moves of Turkey.

Briefly:

Some analysts claim that recent reconciliation in various terms between Turkey, Russia and Iran is just some opportunistic tactical moves of President Erdogan to take more advantage from the USA & EU. Such an assumption is delusional, misleading and extremely dangerous for the USA & EU in the long term based on many reasons, which some of them have been mentioned in my previous post.


Note: Once again i repeat my statement: Time has changed; Turkey is moving towards a new direction. But some politicians in the USA & EU do not see this move; because they are watching Turkey in 2016 through some glasses made during the Cold War Era (This is an extremely delusional, misleading and dangerous Mirror Imaging).


M. Sirani               14.08.2016

Turkey is Rapidly Moving Towards Some Major Changes Including in Its Foreign Policy; The US and EU Should Be Concerned.

Briefly:

Turkey is rapidly moving towards some major changes; it seems the country is passing through a transitional phase in different terms including in its foreign policy. Some issues such as A- Recent Turkish-Russian rapprochement, B- The newly formed Russian-Turkish-Iranian coalition with regard to Syria, C- The scope and level of economic trade between Turkey and Iran-Russia, D- the current tension between USA and Turkey amid F. Gulen and recent military coup in the country, E- the tension between Turkey and EU amid many issues mainly EU membership for Turkey or the visa-free regulation for Turkish citizens, F- the notion that both Iran and Turkey are supporting the Muslim Brotherhood (Contrary to Saudi Arabia & Egypt), G- Iran and Turkey has similar policy (to some extent) with regards to creation of a independent Kurdish State in the region and many other issues, are some important signs that the US and EU should be concerned about them and as a result re-evaluate some of their policies with regard to Turkey. Some of these issues might not create a serious conflict for the USA & EU at this stage. But i'm pretty sure some of them will create a serious headache for the USA & EU in the long terms; of course, if we analyze them in a very professional and appropriate manner. As some examples, the position of NATO and the influx of refugees into the EU should be mentioned in this regard.


Note: To put it simply: Turkey is moving towards a new direction; while the USA and the EU are observing Turkey with some glasses made during the Cold War Era. (Extremely wrong & dangerous mirror imaging).


M. Sirani                13.08.2016  

Warning: Nuclear Armed Pakistan And the Rise of Various Radical Islamic Groups; A Serious Global Threat Somewhere in the Future.

Briefly:

Any military coup as a solution to avoid such a catastrophic event (Conducted by some "secular army generals"; if exists any in reality) in Pakistan will highly likely fail due to the rapid, deep and broad Islamization within the Pakistani society. Any attempt in this regard will face either A- the same barrier as we saw in recent coup in Turkey or B- will highly likely drag Pakistan into a prolonged and devastating civil war between various groups including Taliban and Haqqani network. The US and EU politicians should pay attention to the current critical situation in Pakistan; understand that we are living in 2016 with new dangerous challenges not in 1970s-1980s during the Cold War and find a appropriate and fundamental solution for this country; before it's too late. Any negligence, miscalculation and delay in this matter will be disastrous in different terms for many people.


M. Sirani                 08.08.2016

Huge Fire Breaks Out Near NATO Base in Turkey. Sabotage is a Possibility According to RT.

A Warning: The Potentially Security Threat of "Pokémon Go" Game At the Age of Terror and Mass Shooting.

Briefly:

I leave aside the overall effects of Pokemon Go game on the mindset of current young generation. This is, in fact, the task of some experts in social psychology or anthropology not mine.
But i think in terms of security and safety, this game has the potentiality to be used in a very negative & devastating manner in the hands of some terrorists or mass shooters.

As an example, a skilled hacker linked to ISIS, Al-Qaeda or any other terrorist groups or a mass shooter or a child abuser might hack the game and lead some selected individual or group/s to a special location for a horrific assassination, hostage taking or a terrorist attack. There is some potentiality in this matter, which should neither be ignored nor underestimated, in my opinion. This is one of the negative side effects of the combination of Virtually & Reality in our daily lives and we should deal with it in a very careful, appropriate and professional manner; before it's too late.


Note: I hope my prediction would not come true but in case of hacking Pokemon Go game and a tragic event after that family/ies of victim/s or a state can simply sue Niantic, iOC or Apple for large amount of money due to this "loophole"; if i may call it.  

M. Sirani                                  24.07.2016  

Don't Close Your Eyes to Current Arrest and Detaining in Turkey.

Briefly:

There are probably millions Turkish and Kurds (From Turkey), who are living and working in the EU countries. If Erdogan government would continue with such undemocratic policies, there is high probability that tension in Turkey will spillover into other EU countries in different terms, forms and scales, e.g. conflict between different Turkish & Kurdish groups.


M. Sirani                 23.07.2016 

NATO and EU Should Be Aware That Turkey is Rapidly Moving Towards a Totally Wrong & Destabilizing and Dangerous Direction in Different Terms.

Briefly:

What we are observing currently in Turkey is not some simple and temporarily Politicization & Securitization policy (Copenhagen School) derived from Erdogan & AKP counter-coup measures. This is, in fact, the beginning of an extreme & endless dark era in the history of Turkey. The consequences of this dark era would be devastating in different terms not only for Turkey and Turkish people but also for the EU, NATO and the region.


Note: During an interview with Al Jazeera news agency, R. Erdogan said: there is some probability that a pilot among the coup plotters shot down the Russian jet (This is a simple statement; but it means a lot in reality. NATO & EU should not underestimate nor ignore such alarming signs and statements. In short, Turkey will highly likely shift its direction in various terms including in foreign affairs. The eyes of current Turkish political system are gradually focusing on the East, instead of the West, in my opinion). 


M. Sirani                 21.07.2016

14 Turkish Navy Ships, without Any Contact With the Headquarter, are Still Missing.

Is Turkey a stable ally for NATO? Can Turkey with such a instability & fragmented society become a member of the EU?
Is Turkey a stable & secure country for protecting the US nuclear weapon on its territory?


M. Sirani              20.07.2016

Reference:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-attempt-turkish-navy-ships-admirals-military-president-erdogan-a7144141.html

An Alarming Event for the USA, EU and NATO: Incirlik Air Base in Turkey is Still Without Power.

Briefly:

Following the recent military coup, the Turkish authority cut off the power in the Incirlik Air Base due to some security measures. Contrary to many requests of the Pentagon, the Turkish authority has not restore the power yet. This event, even at temporarily scale, is not a simple matter and should be taken seriously based on many reasons.

Erdogan & Akp will highly likely use the following leverages as extortion in order to achieve some goals including the extradition of F. Gulen from the USA.

A- The large numbers of refugees sheltered in Turkey.
B- The importance of using the Turkish territory in war against ISIS.
C- The importance of using the Turkish territory in any type of conflict against Russia.
D- The existence of some US nuclear weapon in the Incirlik Air Base (I hope, I'm wrong in this particular matter).

By this type of move, Turkey can put the USA & the EU at a very critical and difficult position at the present. The consequences of this move are not pleasant neither for USA, nor for the EU nor for the NATO at short and long term.


Note: In my opinion, as inherent characteristics of the rapid Islamization, Erdogan and AKP party are turning Turkey into a revisionist state; a state with some unpredictable, unexpected and adventurous characteristics and behaviors. This should be an alarming sign for the USA, EU and NATO.  


M. Sirani                     20.07.2016  

Today in Turkey: Be Prepared for "the Rise of Islamic Sultan" and its Devastating Consequences in the Future For Turkey and the Region.

The USA & The EU should Be Prepared For More Unexpected Surprises From Turkey in the Next Coming Days, Weeks & Months.

Briefly:

The high ranking politicians in the USA & EU should pay attention to a brief warning as follows.

Turkey is neither Iran nor Iraq nor Afghanistan in different terms. An Islamic political system in Turkey means a huge disaster for NATO, EU and USA in different terms. 


Note: Leave the joke that "Islam is compatible with democracy and liberal values" to third countries and save Turkey. Otherwise, you lose & regret a lot; much more than you ever imagine. Remind you that we are in 2016 and facing serious and existential threat like "The rise of various radical Islamic groups" across Asia, Africa and the Middle East for many years or possibly decades to come.  


M. Sirani                19.07.2016

The Possibility of Re-Introduction of Death Penalty & Further Implementation of Regressive & Totalitarian Policy-Regulation in Turkey.

Briefly:

Erdogan and AKP party might probably use some issues such as A- The large numbers of refugees sheltered in Turkey, B- the necessary use of Turkish territory in war against ISIS and in case of any further tension against Russia in order to re-introduce and implement death penalty and further regressive policy and regulation in Turkey. (I'm not perfectly sure; but i think there is some probability that Erdogan would try to take advantage from these issues and impose his ideas.

Note: Such a move will put the west particularly the EU in a very difficult and critical position in different terms mainly in security matter. 

M. Sirani                     19.07.2016 

Warning: An Islamic Coup-Revolution in Turkey Has Started.

Briefly:
Different evidences (E.g. dismissing 2745 judges, nearly 15000 personnel of the educational system, couple of thousands military personnel) indicate the fact that Erdogan and his AKP party have taken advantage from recent unsuccessful coup and changing the course of events in Turkey towards a very wrong and dangerous direction. Based on many evidences, i believe that Erdogan and AKP party have conducted an Islamic Coup-Revolution in Turkey; this time in a very clear and visible manner.
Due to many reasons, this will be a dangerous and destructive development not only for Turkey and Turkish people but also for the USA, EU and NATO in the short as well as long run in different terms. This move should be stopped, before it's too late.


Note: In the next coming days (Probably tomorrow Wednesday, after the national security meeting) Erdogan would announce more details in this matter. 
We should say good bye to secular political system in Turkey and be prepared for broad tension, uprising and revolt in Turkey in the next coming months, in my opinion. 



M. Sirani                 19.07.2016 

The Brexit.

Briefly:

Many politicians as well as pundits are not fully aware of the overall impact, consequences and complications of the Brexit in short & long term at national, regional and global levels. In this respect, i can simply say that the Brexit like some other important historical events such as Westphalian Peace Treaty, the second world war or the collapse of the Soviet Union will profoundly change and shape the international politics in different terms in the long run.


Note: As far as i review the news in this matter, i see most of the articles are exploring some issues such as uncertainty in the market, invoking Article 50, how to reverse the referendum and some shallow explanations like these. These articles are, in fact, simplifying an important historical event in our contemporary world. Brexit is much more than these shallow articles. The scar of Brexit will deeply change and shape the face of international politics in different terms.  Germany & France can gain a lot from this event, if they identify the opportunities resulted from Brexit. The Brexit is, in addition, the starting point of the fall of United Kingdom Empire. And many other events,,,,,,,,,,,,


M. Sirani      01.07.2016 

Briefly: Some of MY Predictions About the Next Couple of Years.

Briefly:

The next couple of years would not be calm & steady for all of us in different terms & scales, due to the fact that we would highly likely face many unpredictable events. Among these events, which occurrence of any of them, would automatically impact other parts of the world: A- Highly likely presidency of D. Trump and the effect of this event in different terms whether at domestic level within the USA or at the global level B- A long term low oil price and its devastating consequences in different terms (social, economic, and political) at national, regional and global levels, C- Highly likely defeating most parts of ISIS in both Syria & Iraq and accordingly spreading some members of ISIS around the world mostly in the Middle East, Africa and EU, D- The sanctions on Iran have been lifted. This issue would empower & strengthen Iran in different terms. As a result, we should observe more offensive & expansionist move from Iran and consequently more hostility between Iran and Israel-Saudi Arabia in the region. E- Due to the fact that Iran & Russia have the upper hands in Syria, the West would try to weaken Russia in Ukraine in retaliation. In case of Presidency of Clinton we would probably witness escalation of tension in Ukraine. In case of no diplomatic solution in Ukraine, the tension might spread to the Baltic States, (etc), could be mentioned.                                        

M. Sirani                     05.05.2016  

The Vision 2030 Reform in Saudi Arabia: A Risky Reform:

The Vision 2030 Plan (Briefly)

Undoubtedly, this is a massive economic plan for Saudi Arabia. Due to some facts such as: A- economic sector in every country including Saudi Arabia is interconnected and interwoven with other social, cultural and political sectors, B- a simple reform in one sector (E.g. economic sector) will undoubtedly impact other sectors (E.g. social, cultural and political sectors), C- the massive scale of this economic reform, we should undoubtedly expect that this huge economic reform will automatically impact (Domino effect) other social, cultural and political sectors (each to some extent) within Saudi Arabia’s society beyond the will and power of Saudi authority or anyone else. As such, in my opinion, the Vision 2030 reform should be accompanied with some social, cultural and political reforms compatible with this huge economic reform, Saudi Arabia#s society and some other external factors at regional ^ global level. Otherwise this reform cannot achieve its main goals in an effective and comprehensive manner or in some cases this economic reform might be counterproductive and create instability within Saudi Arabia. It should be added that analyzing the overall aspect of what i have briefly note above with regards to Vision 2030 and its consequences is beyond the scope of this short & impromptu note.   

However, In order to illustrate a small part of my opinion in this regard, I use the White Revolution Reforms performed by King Pahlavi in Iran as an example. The White Revolution was mainly focused on economic terms not social, cultural and political sectors in Iran. As such, the newly economic reform, its consequences and complications were not compatible with previous social, cultural and political sectors in those years in Iran. The result of this contradiction and incompatibility was one of the main reasons of the disaster in 1979, and what we are observing today. This is a historical fact; we cannot perform a reform in one sector successfully within a society (no matter where) without performing compatible reforms in other sectors as well. It is impossible. According to this plan, for example, the Saudi authority would cut the subsidies and would try to increase the taxes. These reforms would change the Saudi’s society in economic term. But these reforms are not pure economic, due to the fact that their implementation would automatically impact the lives of Saudis people in terms of cutting subsidies & increasing taxes. In other words, these two economic reforms would impact social, cultural and political sectors in Saudi Arabia. As such, along with these economic reforms, some political, social and cultural reforms (E.g. education) should be performed; otherwise these two economic reforms would create social, cultural and political instability and uprising in Saudi Arabia whether in short or long term.   

Regardless of some negative points such as cutting the subsidies and privatization, This is a very huge project and in case of implementation, it would automatically impact various social, cultural and political sectors within Saudi Arabia’s society and even beyond. In order to avoid any complication in this matter in the short and long term, it would be wise that Saudi Arabia authority would re-evaluate this project in terms of policy analysis and risk management particularly at this stage that the whole Middle East (including Saudi Arabia itself to some extent) is experiencing various types of social, cultural, religious, ethnic and political instability & conflict. 

M. Sirani                    25.04.2016