Thursday, April 30, 2015

Chances that Iran Will Enter into A Direct Military Confrontation With Saudi Arabia At This Stage Are Very Low.

Iran would try to deliver some weapons and other necessary equipment to Yemeni Houthis in every possible way either via Oman or Djibouti or some smugglers from Somalia. Moreover, Iran would try to provoke the Shiite people in Bahrain or Eastern province of Al-Ahsa in Saudi Arabia or the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in order to destabilize some countries within Saudi-led coalition. Furthermore, Iran would probably order Hamas, Jihad and even Hezbollah to fire some rockets toward Israel, if the Yemeni war would continue in the long term. To put it simply, Iran would try to increase the costs and destabilize every part of the Middle East including the two Straits of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb in different terms and based on every possible reasons, if the war in Yemen would continue in the long term as it is currently.

But the chance that Iran would enter into a direct military confrontation with Saudi Arabia at this stage because of Yemen itself, is very low or i might say almost impossible. Due to the fact that Iran's proxy i.e. Houthis are steady and gradually wining the war in Yemen. In addition, Iran is trying to deceive the international community for a nuclear deal at the present. The decision makers in Tehran are smart enough to don't do a huge tactical mistake like that at least at this stage.

Unless Saudi Arabia would perform a direct military operation against Iran or Assad's forces in Syria or Iran's IRGC-Quds Forces in Iraq, for example. In such a scenario, Iran would undoubtedly retaliate by all means from different battlefields; but not at this stage.

M. Sirani                                        30.04.2015