Thursday, April 9, 2015

The Lausanne Framework and its So Far Serious Complications.

The U.S. officials pretend that this is some type of misinterpretation, but it seems there are some serious complications with regards to the details of Lausanne Framework between Iran and its counterparts. These complications are, so far, as follows.

1- Type of centrifuge: According to the U.S. officials, Iran will not be allowed to use its modern centrifuges in its nuclear activities following the emerging nuclear deal.

Iran's response in this matter: In a closed parliamentary meeting, which took place last Tuesday, both Salehi and Zarif told the members of Parliament that Iran will use its modern type centrifuge IR8 in its nuclear activities following the emerging nuclear deal.

2- Lifting the sanctions: According to the U.S. officials, the sanctions will be gradually lifted based on Iran's verified commitment with regards to the emerging deal.

Iran's response in this matter: Today, Hassan Rouhani said, Iran would not sign any agreement, unless the sanctions were lifted on the first day of the implementation of agreement. This is an important issue that Ayatollah Khamenei has also emphasized on it in many official occasions. When it comes to the sanctions imposed on Iran, we should pay attention to an important issue, which evolved yesterday. Iran has become the founder member of AIIB (China-led Bank) since yesterday. Such a development, will give an extra power to Iran in different terms. As an example, the international community will not easily be able to reimpose economic sanctions on Iran somewhere in the future, if Iran will not meet its commitments within the charter of Lausanne Framework/emerging agreement.

3- IAEA unlimited and unexpected inspection: According to the U.S. officials including Ben Rhodes, the IAEA inspectors will be allowed to visit every suspicious nuclear sites including Iran's military sites, if it will be needed.

Iran's response in this matter: Both Iran's Minister of Defense Hossein Dehghan and Hassan Firuzabadi the Chief of Staff of Iranian Armed Forces state that Iran will not allow anyone visit Iran's military bases. Such an issue is Iran's red line as both Iran's military officials and other policy makers in Tehran repeatedly claim.

We should bear in mind that the Lausanne Framework is just nearly one week old and there are many complications in this Framework up until this moment. As the time passes, we will undoubtedly observe more flaws and complications in this matter. Such serious complications indicate the fact that Obama administration can hardly sell this Framework (and the emerging agreement) not only to the U.S. lawmakers but also to the close U.S. allies in the Middle East.

M. Sirani                                   09.04.2015