Briefly: When i say Obama administration is the most chaotic administration in the entire U.S. history with regards to Foreign Policy, i really mean it. This administration follows neither any branches of Realism, nor Liberalism nor Constructivism, etc on its foreign policy. It's a total failure, chaotic and peculiar on its kind.
As i analyze the recent decision of President Putin amid lifting the ban on delivery of S-300 Defense Missiles to Tehran more and more, i become more convinced that without a clear green light from Obama administration, President Putin would have not done such a move at this critical stage.
The reason, which to some extent underpins my hypothesis in this matter, is the current tension in Ukraine between the Western countries particularly the USA and Russia. As we know, couple of months ago, some of U.S. lawmakers and high ranking officials within Obama administration had a plan to arm Ukraine with some high-tech weapons against Russia. This plan was halted due to many reasons including the Ukraine peace plan developed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande.
This issue raises some serious questions as follows. Considering some issues such as 1- the current nuclear dispute between Iran and the western countries particularly the USA, 2- the idea that Iran might secretly develop nuclear weapon, 3- the notion that the USA has been repeatedly claiming that the military option against Iran's nuclear facilities is on the table, if Iran would not meet its commitments with regards the IAEA standard laws and regulations, and 4- the delivery of a high-tech Defense weapon such as Russian S-300 to Iran would, to a large extent, diminish and undermine the U.S. military capability amid targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, what would be the automatic reaction of the USA, if Russia would deliver S-300 missiles to Iran without any direct approval from the Obama administration?
In such a scenario and in response to Russia's move, wouldn't USA arm Ukraine in retaliation? The answer to this question is a very strong "yes". Because this is the most usual and automatic response of every political system including the USA in such a hypothetical scenario. In addition, we should bear in mind that it is almost impossible that the policy makers in Kremlin have not considered the possibility of such a retaliation from USA in this matter, the same as i do.
Based on what briefly explored above, i can say that there is high probability that the USA has given a clear green light to Russia in this matter. Because, without a certain approval from Obama administration, President Putin would have not lifted the ban on delivery of S-300 Missiles to Iran due to his enormous concern with regards to arming Ukraine by the USA.
By this move, however, President Obama 1- has offered Iran a full security guarantee with regards to a possible unilateral Israeli air strike against its nuclear facilities and 2- has shown his loyalty, honesty and friendship to Ayatollah Khamenei and 3- has tried to encourage Iran for a nuclear deal in order to save his foreign policy sinking ship.
Note: As i have mentioned in my previous short notes in this matter, if my hypothesis is true, this event would be a huge scandal not only for President Obama but also for his entire administration, his political party "Democrats" and the USA among its close allies around the world.
Previous note entitled: Was / Not Delivering of Russian S-300 Missiles to Iran, Part of A Secret Deal Between U.S., Iran and Russia in the Lausanne Framework?
M. Sirani 18.04.2015
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